Indonesian Aero News

Ananda

The Bunker Group
actually decided on this plan? It seem to be done without addressing a question of market demands.
DI market demand still 80%+ from Indonesian Government. Thus changing priority within Indonesian Politics, will determine what market demand that DI will got.

Changing Priority also means budget allocation on the projects that already been talk before can be drop, even already got approval from the suppliers. Like the example below:


Perhaps they (Indonesian MinDef) want to get this approval for F-15ID as priority, thus other projects will be drop or postpone. That's why I said before in this thread, if they are going to go ahead with Rafale and this F-15ID, something must give. Some other Indonesian defense projects must be drop.

As for the BioAvtur, right now there's also political drive within Indonesian Politics to support Bio Fuel from CPO. This is part of Bio Fuel battle, where every producers want to prove to the market, their products are more efficient for Bio Fuel.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
Who actually decided on this plan?
Dunno, but it would have been an army general, though it could be a retired one who has entered politics.

Indonesian Aerospace is not independent. Their concern isn't just the buyers and potential buyers, but also the politicians in their board of directors. Some of these politicians are connected to the armed forces and some are even retired generals and admirals and air marshalls.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

From Antara News Agency, Russian ambassador in Indonesia still sure on Su-35 order, as there're not yet official cancelation of the order.

Well, eventough it's getting clear that the fund for that order already sideline for first batch of Rafale, but Russia will fight till the end. It's shown to other nations that Russia can't be dictate by West.

Perhaps some of local 'defense' analysts got right. It's not Rafale order that prompt US to give F-15ID clearance to Indonesia. However more to take out Flankers from Indonesian game altogether. Perhaps the Russian ambassador reacted more toward US defense order then French ones.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Who actually decided on this plan? It seem to be done without addressing a question of market demands. TNI's needs for close fire support can be met using the Super Tucanos, AH-64s etc.
The TNI-AU had a C-47 converted into a gunship, armed with 12.7mm HMGs. It was used for the invasion of East Timor. There was mention of this, along with pics in an article which appeared in Air Forces Monthly. The writer was an Indonesian who contributed quite a number of articles on Indonesian military aviation. Sadly he passed away a number of years ago.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
261908_10150243805319222_763314221_7023881_4349962_n.jpg

This is only very few photos that survive on that TNI-AU C-47 project (got it from online open source). It's the emergency solution. TNI-AU really not fit for any armed conflict situation at that moment, even only with Fretilin in East Timor. The writer that @STURM mentioned name was Hendro Subroto. He's can be said as the only very few Indonesian journalist that specializes in War and Armed Forces environment at that time (even relative to present Indonesian Journalist knowledge on defense).

TNI-AU can only give few P-51 and B-25 on the operation, since most of them already in poor condition for operation readiness. They can't provide any ex Eastern Block equipment (that's make bulk of their fleet in the 60's), while Western equipment like T-33 or F-86 are not prepared yet. The OV-10 that they order also not being delivered. So by equipping couple of C-47 they had, they make emergency gunship.

Indonesia history in East Timor (whether in beginning or in the end), is one big factor that make Psychee of Indonesian defense planners for not depending on one side supply source. Always diverse your suppliers, even for those that build locally (source of tech).
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Talking about specialise CAS. I have never been enthusiasts proponent for COIN fighters in TNI-AU for OOV-10 replacement. Not that I understand the attraction for present generation specialise COIN like A-29 Super Tucano. However more under present environment, TNI-AD already been support by helicopter gunship like AH-64E and MI-35V. Thus the need for specialise COIN support from TNI-AU is reduce. In sense the air support that TNI-AD can provide on their own are already in better condition, then in time OV-10 needed.

Also TNI-AU already have combo of KT-1B and TA-50 that can be used for combo trainers and light attack. Thus put A-29 in operation bit kind of redundant.


This's video from Shepard Media with Embrear collaboration. Talking about attraction of A-29 from some smaller Euro nation for advance trainer and low threat environment operation.

This is what my point is about. With KT-1B can be wired for secondary support, plus availability of TA-50 and TNI-AD gunships, then A-29 doesn't provide the urgency need as time of OV-10 operation.

More over, during OV-10 operation, TNI facing three urgencies (rank of intensity), Aceh, East Timor and West Papua (yes according to some TNI sources, Aceh rebel actually provide more challenge then Fretilin in East Timor). Now only left much lower intensity Insurgency (relative term) in West Papua. The need for air cover from A-29 can be cover by other assets.

Just my two cents and bit ranting on the need for TNI-AU. to keep hold on A-29. On other side, it's cheap to procured and operated. So what do I know.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Yes they did. However it become quite big media commotion (as one foreign journalist shown/record hawk used in Aceh), that UK launch formal complaint.

From my understanding that's why TNI-AU use more OV-10. Besides as TNI-AD didn't have dedicated gunship that time (they only have armed NBO-105), OV-10 can provide better cover. Even US still embargoes TNI after East Timor fiasco, they seems not shown official complain on OV-10 use in Aceh (unlike UK on Hawk usage). At least not as vocal in media.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I only read in specialise Indonesian Armed Forces magazine that time, Hawk used many armament left over from A-4 that being retired. So my guess it is mostly Mk-81 250.
 

76mmGuns

Active Member
Interesting article on The Diplomat explaining why Indonesia spent $22bn on French Rafale and F15's. It's economic pressure to spend $22bn on Western planes, instead of just $8bn on Russian planes.


I have membership, and have pasted the article here. If this is against rules, mods, please delete relevant parts/whole article

Indonesia’s $22 Billion Purchases of US, French Fighter Jets: How Russia’s Su-35 Lost Out
Indonesia’s about-face from a deal with Russia to new purchase agreements with the U.S. and France highlights the potency of U.S. sanctions.

Within 24 hours on February 10-11, $22 billion worth of purchases by the Indonesian Defense Ministry of Western fighter jets were announced under two major contracts. The first was an $8.1 billion deal for 42 Rafale twin engine lightweight fighter jets from France, and the second a $13.9 billion deal for 36 F-15 Eagle heavyweight fighters from the United States.

The Indonesian Air Force currently fields 49 fighters in four squadrons, indicating that the new 78 aircraft will not only replace all fighters in service but will also expand the country’s fleet with new squadrons. The backbone of the fleet is currently comprised of 33 F-16 and F-5 lightweight fighters, which are expected to be replaced by the Rafales, while the elite is formed of 16 Russian Su-27/30 heavyweights, which are likely to be replaced by the F-15s.

The Indonesian acquisitions are notable, first, for their scale, with $22 billion worth of purchases being a tremendous sum even for larger arms importers such as Saudi Arabia or Japan and representing a major escalation of defense spending. At the same time, the new deals also reflect the success of U.S. efforts to expand the market share of Western armaments using threats of economic sanctions.

In February 2018 the Indonesian Defense Ministry had announced a $1.1 billion contract for the acquisition of 11 Russian Su-35 heavyweight fighters, with deliveries expected to begin by the end of 2019 and additional purchases considered likely. Intervention by the United States however, using the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), effectively stalled and then cancelled the deal. Signed into law in August 2017, CAATSA leveraged the United States’ place at the heart of the global financial system to influence global arms sales by threatening any client for a major Russian weapons package with economic warfare. It was first applied in September 2018 against China for its orders of $4 billion worth of Russian Su-35s and S-400 air defense systems, placed in 2015.

1 of 2, con't below
 

76mmGuns

Active Member
2 of 2.



The act effectively ensures that although a core of countries deeply invested in Russian military hardware such as Algeria, Vietnam, and India will likely continue their acquisitions, those countries that have sought to hedge between Russian and Western arms – such as Indonesia, Egypt, the Philippines, or Malaysia – can be swayed toward giving Western producers Russia’s market share.

Indonesia had from the late 1960s looked only to the United States for acquisitions of fighter aircraft, purchasing F-5 and F-16 lightweight jets and planning further F-16 acquisitions in the 1990s. The perceived threat of U.S. moves to block spare parts for the fleet in the 1990s, which materialized in 1999 in response to alleged human rights abuses in what was then Indonesian East Timor, led Jakarta to diversify its fleet by acquiring Russian Su-27 and later Su-30 fighters. Acquiring Russian and American fighters in parallel, the former providing smaller numbers of elite heavyweights and the latter larger numbers of low maintenance lightweights, was expected to continue to shape Indonesian acquisitions plans, with Su-35s potentially being supplemented by new F-16 Block 72 aircraft from the United States.

Washington had long pressured clients for Russian arms to look to the West, in part as a means to undermine Russia’s heavily export reliant defense sector, but CAATSA escalated this considerably and, in Indonesia’s case, appears to have proven decisive.

The Indonesian government initially released defiant statements against U.S. sanctions threats, with Defense Minister Riamizard Riachudu stating in October 2018: “Never cancel. We are continuing the implementation of the contract.” This came two months after Director General of the Indonesian Trade Ministry Oke Nurwan lamented, “While we are in the process of the barter trade with Russia, the U.S. is trying to intervene.” Russia’s willingness to accept payment in commodities, and later to offer Indonesia heavily customized variants of the Su-35, appeared to be desperate efforts to salvage the deal. Nevertheless, it was announced in December 2021 that the Su-35 acquisition plans had been cancelled, with the primary beneficiary appearing to be France.

Indonesia appears to have replaced Russia with France as its secondary supplier of fighters. With only Russia and the United States producing heavyweight fighters for export, Jakarta changed its plans for U.S. acquisitions from light F-16s to heavy F-15s and purchased Rafales in place of the F-16s. Sales by France notably benefit the United States not only by undermining Russia, but also by strengthening the often-struggling defense sector of Washington’s NATO ally – a particularly salient point after French anger over the cancellation of a major submarine deal with Australia. It will also yield some revenues for U.S. firms, which alongside multiple non-French European firms produce significant inputs for the Rafale.

While Indonesia’s new acquisitions place it in the clear in terms of avoiding sanctions, this has come at a very considerable cost. Even the lightweight Rafales will be acquired for approximately $193 million each, while the heavier F-15s are among the most expensive fighters ever exported at $386 million each – compared to just $100 million for the Su-35. When China bought a larger number of two dozen Su-35s they were sold at approximately $83 million each, and for an order of 36 to 42 fighters it is highly plausible that the price would fall to under $80 million.

Meanwhile, the Su-35 is 180 percent as heavy and has 190 percent the engine power and a far higher endurance than the Rafale, which has the weakest engines of any fighter in production in the world. The Russian fighter integrates thrust vectoring engines, has a higher endurance, and notably uses three radars where its Western competitors field only one. The Su-35 fighter’s R-37 air-to-air missiles are fast and can shoot much further at 400 km – around double the range of the Rafale’s Meteor missile and more than double that of the F-15’s AIM-120D.

This is not to say that the Su-35 is necessarily better, with the F-15 in particular being a peer level competitor to it albeit at nearly five times the price, but rather that the massive discrepancy in cost is very difficult to explain by a performance advantage of Western systems. A number of factors, most notably the dollar’s much higher purchasing power in Russia, largely explain the price difference favoring the Su-35. Had Indonesia acquired 78 Su-35s instead of 78 Rafales and F-15s, the cost would have been little over $6 billion instead of $22 billion, with the fighter’s operational costs being similar to those of the F-15, although higher than those of the lighter Rafale.

Indonesia’s decisions illustrate the potency of U.S. economic sanctions threats, with the result being provision of much needed revenues to Western defense industries, a much more expensive and arguably less potent defense capability for clients, and denial of revenues to the Russian defense industry as part of broader Western efforts to undermine the country’s economy. Indonesia’s case is far from unique. A notable preceding example in the region is the Philippines, where the Defense Ministry cited CAATSA threats as the reason for acquiring Black Hawk helicopters from the United States after initially showing a strong interest in Russian Mi-171. Similar trends are expected to continue to shape global arms sales unless changes in the world economy weaken the potency of U.S. sanctions and undermine Washington’s ability use economic and political pressure to influence acquisitions decisions.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
... Even the lightweight Rafales will be acquired for approximately $193 million each, while the heavier F-15s are among the most expensive fighters ever exported at $386 million each – compared to just $100 million for the Su-35.
...
Those numbers are way off the mark. The Rafale number appears to be a simple division of 8.1 billion by the 42 fighters. That is misleading because it 8.1 billion is a packaged deal, inclusive of ILS. The closest data point was this article that provided the breakdown of the Indian purchase.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Had Indonesia acquired 78 Su-35s instead of 78 Rafales and F-15s, the cost would have been little over $6 billion instead of $22 billion, with the fighter’s operational costs being similar to those of the F-15, although higher than those of the lighter Rafale.
How Russian and US or French export packages construct are different. That's why many journalist make mistakes, as the packages can't be compared as apple to apple.

Thanks on putting full article, still what the article put basically taking info from several info that already been put in this thread also. In nutshell Indonesia present administration changes on fighters preference from Su-35 and F-16V toward Rafale and F-15EX not only related to Geopolitical changes but also to Political choices.

Rafale already been committed by present administration, we will still see whether they will also committed toward the offer of F-15ID (which is F-15EX export version to Indonesia). At this moment Indonesian MinDef still doing lobby toward parliament and Political circles. In sense more to shown that the packages include life time sustainment cost which are going to be different with Russian packages.

The Ukraine-Russia clash also can provide motivation from Political circles that before bit reluctance toward defense Investment. This shown them potential China incursion toward Indonesia line in SCS has potential to move beyond business as usual. Thus Frenchie offer as defense partner on helping local defense industry is part of Political choices underlying Rafale decisions.
 

r0m8470

Member
2 of 2.

While Indonesia’s new acquisitions place it in the clear in terms of avoiding sanctions, this has come at a very considerable cost. Even the lightweight Rafales will be acquired for approximately $193 million each, while the heavier F-15s are among the most expensive fighters ever exported at $386 million each – compared to just $100 million for the Su-35. When China bought a larger number of two dozen Su-35s they were sold at approximately $83 million each, and for an order of 36 to 42 fighters it is highly plausible that the price would fall to under $80 million.

Meanwhile, the Su-35 is 180 percent as heavy and has 190 percent the engine power and a far higher endurance than the Rafale, which has the weakest engines of any fighter in production in the world. The Russian fighter integrates thrust vectoring engines, has a higher endurance, and notably uses three radars where its Western competitors field only one. The Su-35 fighter’s R-37 air-to-air missiles are fast and can shoot much further at 400 km – around double the range of the Rafale’s Meteor missile and more than double that of the F-15’s AIM-120D.
First time I read that Rafale are considered lightweight .... interesting perspective. Are they not both heavy-weight, twin engine strike fighters? And the 400km range of R-37, that might be true, but w/o targeting apparatus or data link capability through another targeting means, that range is meaningless.

I am w/ Ananda. I don't think straight averages work off the contract values work. If one bothers to scour and compare DSCA notifications for similar hardware, each package is really different. One package of F16V might be different than others, because the 2nd package may involve a full functioning sims, or an on-site contractor support for 6 months (vs none), or one has an included countermeasure expendables for x number of sorties (vs y number of sorties) and the permutation goes on.

I am more interested in what's going to happen with the force mix. Having to induct Rafale (and potentially F-15EX) for any air force planner - would be exciting, to say the least, provided that there are funds to support both.

This is what I recall the current force structure looks like:
1st sqn - Hawk
3rd sqn - F16A/B/C/D
11th sqn - Flanker medley
12th sqn - Hawk
14th sqn - token detachment of Flanker?
15th sqn - TA50
16th sqn - F16 C/D
21st sqn (?) - Tucano

Where would the Rafale (and F15EX) be placed? I don't see the Flankers continuing to serve so maybe they will be sold off, or fly until they break? What about the Hawks? Combine them into a sqn by picking the best airframes then move to the East? I heard that the AF wants to setup sqn in Biak and/or Kupang - or just retire them altogether? Tucano ~ not sure what the utility of that COIN sqn anymore, but given the AF penchant for keeping specialized COIN, they may soldier on.

The other thing that surprised me is - even if the AF ended up inducting both Rafale and F15EX, what would they employ as sea denial PGM? AM39 for Rafale and Harpoon for F15EX? Not exactly state of the art these days.

Side topic:
Have not heard strong statement from Foreign Ministry on the situation in Ukraine. Maybe the current admin tries to balance btw the need of appeasing Russia and the West. There are quite a pile of newer hardware that are Russian origin needing support ~ BMP3, the Flankers, newer auto cannons for naval FAC, and ammos for gunships.

Thoughts?
 

Arji

Active Member
Have not heard strong statement from Foreign Ministry on the situation in Ukraine. Maybe the current admin tries to balance btw the need of appeasing Russia and the West.
It's a bit out of topic for this thread, but there is an official response from Foreign Ministry, and it's definitely in support of Ukraine.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Where would the Rafale (and F15EX) be placed? I don't see the Flankers continuing to serve so maybe they will be sold off, or fly until they break? What about the Hawks? Combine them into a sqn by picking the best airframes then move to the East? I heard that the AF wants to setup sqn in Biak and/or Kupang - or just retire them altogether? Tucano ~ not sure what the utility of that COIN sqn anymore, but given the AF penchant for keeping specialized COIN, they may soldier on
One thing to remember, if all plan 42 of those Rafale program being contracted this year (so far only 6), it will take by end of decade for all to operational. As for those 36 F-15ID, even somehow the Administration agree on the packages offer from US this year, it will also streching the implementation to end of this decade at least.

By that time, the Hawks will be time sloted for retirement. However I don't think this plan for Rafale and F-15ID will be their replacement. Under current TNI-AU plan (they call it Bobcat plan, I believe the video already put in this thread some time ago), they plan to have 10-11 operational fighters sq from current 7 operational sq. Hawks is LCA, so I do see (as some of TNI-AU brass put in media) they will try to get seperate deal on LCA.

Don't forget Indonesia still nominaly in plan for 48 KF-21 (nominaly because no new money beimg commited to be allocated yet). It could be the future ORBAT by end from 2030 consist of 42 Rafale, 36 F-15ID and 48 KF-21. That can make 8 operational sq. Plus 2 upgrade F-16 and 1 Super Tucano it can make 11 sq that this plan Bobcat envisage. This off course the best scenario if all the appropriate budget provided.
Note:
I'm still support the licensing plan for KF-21 being change to Licensing FA-50, don't see the need for both Rafale and KF-21 (blk1) in the inventory. KF-21 blk1 so far only shown similar capabilities with Rafale at most as MRCA. Unless TNI-AU got significant beef up on operational budget.

As for Flankers, the plan also like Hawk going to strech using them by end of this decade until F-15ID available to replace them. However with now US also put Belarus MRO facilities under sanction (TNI-AU used them for doing MRO on Flankers), then there will be question how to maintain them in future.

It is also going to be interesting on how US going to deal with the kind of India and Vietnam. Expecting them to stop working with Russian will be impossible considering their defense assets have very big portion from Russian sources. Both of them part of US corner stone strategy to contain China.

but there is an official response from Foreign Ministry, and it's definitely in support of Ukraine.

This is article from Dino Pati Djalal, ex Indonesian Ambasador in Washington DC. For him, it is still not strong enough. However he come from more or less Western inclined Political circles. There're still significant part of Indonesian Political circles and public that see what Putin done to Ukraine is not different then what Bush Jr done with Iraq or Afghanistan. So they don't see the need for Indonesia jumping to Western bandwagon on punishing Russia.

Indonesia possition at this moment shown diplomatic symphaties for Ukraine, telling Indonesia did not support the Invasion to Ukraine, but stop short on outright condeming Russia. Some analyst talking about Indonesia want to maintain middle position (something that many in Asean and even India put so far). In my opinion this is not because Indonesia don't want to agrevate Russia, but more as reflection on some part of Indonesian Political Circles and Public as I mention above.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
A similar speech with the one from the chief-of-staf of the navy. So he is telling that the war in Ukraine not only has some effect on Russian made defence equipment, but to all defence equipment. On the other hand they have bought enough spare parts for a quite long period.


Nine Den Bravo 90 commando's and an airforce doctor were sent to Bucharest to evacuate 80 Indonesians and 3 foreigners with a Garuda Indonesia A330.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
TNI-AU has prepared several pilots, but the have not yet determined the number.

|"Prasetyo remarked that the fighter pilots will receive training in France and Indonesia before being assigned to the existing squadron."|

I expect they plan to transfer the first Rafales to SkU.14.

 
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