Cost, I think. Don't forget that AASM has both a guidance kit & a rocket booster. It should be thought of as a missile rather than a guided bomb.
Indonesian Aero News
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Good summation but there are predictions that Indonesia will be the worlds 4th largest economy within 20 years so some advance planning is not harmful. I think a mix of f16 and f15 would be better than having 4 types to maintain would be a lot smarter. The raffles are know for low availability rates so cheap might be at the expense of available .
Availability is likely to reflect the amount spent on support. Two countries with identical aircraft & similar technical abilities can have very different availability rates. Some European countries skimp on support when their budgets are squeezed, the forces thinking that it's better to have aircraft sitting on the ground that can rapidly be made fit for use in an emergency with some extra money than have high availability but fewer airframes.
And IIRC 20,000 hours of life for an F-15 is likely to require a lot of replacement of parts of the structure, & would also need replacement of avionics because the original ones would be obsolete & no longer supportable long before 20,000 flight hours would be reached. Sometimes it's worthwhile doing all that rebuilding, & sometimes it's cheaper to scrap the old aircraft & replace them. For example, the UK decided recently not to catch up with a backlog of updates for its E-3s, but to replace them by E-7. It was caculated that it'd save money longer-term.
Agreed that 2 tiers makes sense for Indonesia. FA-50 could be the lower tier.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Prabowo Beli 42 Jet Tempur Rafale, Menunggu Uang Muka dari Sri Mulyani
Soal alasan pemilihan jet tempur Rafale, Dahnil mengatakan setidaknya ada empat hal yang diperhatikan Prabowo dalam belanja alutsista
Banggar DPR Buka Suara Soal Pembelian 6 Jet Tempur Dassault Rafale dari Prancis
Indonesia resmi membeli 6 jet tempur Dassault Rafale dari Prancis.
newssetup.kontan.co.id
Some article lately that coming out to support Rafale procurements from Indonesian Political circles. The first article from Mindef shown the delivery of first batch can go up to more than 4 years after contract activation.
Second article shown support from Indonesian Parliement Budgetary Committe Head on the scheme. Thus support using multi years financing scheme, as long as it is already calculated toward overall national debt ratio. He also point out that Rafale being choosen as French offer Industrial level co-op that can result up to 20% Rafale compenents license to local industry.
Fraksi PPP-NasDem Tak Masalah RI Beli Alutsista Rp200 T Pakai Utang
Fraksi PPP dan F-NasDem di DPR mendukung pembelian 36 Jet Tempur F-15 dari utang Rp200 Triliun.
www.cnnindonesia.com
Third article talk about two Parliement factions that support even the costs of F-15ID that DSCA put. Again as long as the financing scheme already calculated toward national debt ratio.
That's why I said there has to be Political commitment to increase Indonesian Defense budget from average 0.8% -1.0% of GDP and toward 50% or double that average, if they want TNI to build and operate more advance defense environment.
If they stay with that average throughout this decades then it will only give USD 12-16 bio defense budget. The procurement allocation usually take 30% of budget and another 30% for maintenance and support. That will be not enough for annual installement for financing scheme and life time support of more advance assets (that TNI usually support). They need to increase 50% at least, and idealy double the budger percentage allocation. Thus make around USD 25bio-30 bio by average by end years of this decade. That'll give room to support efficient operation under their wish list plan.
That's why in this thread I talk to switch the program with KAI from KFX/KF-21 toward FA-50. This is because they already choose Rafale. There's going to be too heavy for support if TNI-AU operate both Rafale and KF-21. At this present iteration KF-21 at most (as it is not proven platform yet) only provide similar capabilities with Rafale. I don't have problem with KFX/KF-21, however since they already choose Rafale, then it's just too much burden to support both of them.
Some Indonesian Fan Boys in other Indonesia forums (some of them wrote in online media), talk as if working with KFX is going to provide Indonesian indegenous fighters. Well it is not, it is still licensing Korean Fighters. If the second article that quoting parliement budget office right, then there's not much difference between Industrial relations benefits from licensing 20% parts of Rafale and KFX/KF-21. Because that's as much Indonesia can get from KFX 20% shares.
So work with Dasault for the Rafale tech, work with KAI for FA-50 tech. That will provide learning curve for DI and other Indonesian Aerospace Industry to go alone for their own design. In the mean time using Rafale and FA-50 combo is much more manageable for TNI-AU operating budget to support. Plus FA-50 can provide more efficient air patroling duties.
Yes, the ideal force should be the combo of this F-15ID and F-16V.
That’s a long waited modernisation for TNI-AU.
However, with these major defence acquisition how will the rest of Southeast Asia countries react?
Will this lead to a possible arms race?
May I use Singapore just for reference purposes that in the future their (RSAF) progressive acquisition for replacement of obsolete equipments be more rapid?
Experts, for your opinion and sharing please, thank you.
However, with these major defence acquisition how will the rest of Southeast Asia countries react?
Will this lead to a possible arms race?
May I use Singapore just for reference purposes that in the future their (RSAF) progressive acquisition for replacement of obsolete equipments be more rapid?
Experts, for your opinion and sharing please, thank you.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Singapore already got access to F-35, the end game seems will be replacement for their F-16. Their F-15 if not mistaken I read somewhere will be upgrade. I don't see Singapore will have problem to upgrade their F-15 to EX standard should they choose. @OPSSG or other Singaporean members can add. You can ask or seach this also in Singapore AF thread. They already in the path of mordernisation of replacing their obsolete equipement. Obsoletion in Singapore standard is 20+ years, while Indonesia seems the standard is 40+ years. So Singapore always is faster track toward modernisation in ASEAN.
As for the rest of ASEAN, I'm no defense expert however at least half of them (including Indonesia) will build their defense posture not due to Internal ASEAN competition, but more as reaction toward one big dragon behaviour and postures building.
It is not the right place to discuss SG, but I don't see any arms race within ASEAN itself.
Certainly, there is a desire to keep pace with the neighbours but defense spending in ASEAN (with the exception of SG and Vietnam) has been in the 1% - 1.5% range for most nations. Central to this is politicians in the neighbourhood no longer see each other as a direct, conventional military threat and they usually have other things to worry about. Indeed, other than the two countries, most have difficulties justifying spending more on defense.
Certainly, there is a desire to keep pace with the neighbours but defense spending in ASEAN (with the exception of SG and Vietnam) has been in the 1% - 1.5% range for most nations. Central to this is politicians in the neighbourhood no longer see each other as a direct, conventional military threat and they usually have other things to worry about. Indeed, other than the two countries, most have difficulties justifying spending more on defense.
I kinda concur with koxinga. Practically all the major countries in SEA are overdue with modernization with the exception of Singapore. So it's not so much an arms race with each other but rather individual countries trying to finish their long overdue modernization plans. This Rafale procurement plan, for example, is administratively considered as a replacement for the F-5. That's how old this plan is on the book. The F-15? Supposed replacement for the Su-27 and Su-30. Looking around at the immediate neighbours in SEA, Malaysia is similarly overdue and Philippine is way way way overdue.
I'm a complete stranger to the argument but I would like to disagree with this statement, at least from an external POV.
I think outside Russia/US/CHN only the French are able to produce alone because they have a long tradition of doing so and specially good exports thanks to fact they are the "third party". ITAR free but not Chinese/Russian. In some cases like for Greece and probably Egypt also a geopolitical insurance.
And exactly for this reason I would have stuck with the Koreans.
The French have already a very strong chain of production, with establish industries for all components.(You should read their forum on what they think the Germans and Spanish can bring to the FCAS..... Nothing)
This means that yes you will produce 20% under license now but it will be a one time event.
Meanwhile with the KFX they had to develop the tech that wasn't available off-the-shelf, allowing this way a chance for partner to enter in the production loop not only for their own batch of fighters but also for further exports.
It is the difference between Italy and UK.
UK got as much UK components as they could inside the F-35, we meanwhile being a second tier partner, have negotiated only a finite amount of work share.
I don't know where things went wrong with the Koreans (but I can try to guess) but at least from an outside point of view the partecipation in the KF-21 looks(looked?) better than the Rafale one.
I understand the need for independence but working alone isn't an option anymore IMHO.
I think outside Russia/US/CHN only the French are able to produce alone because they have a long tradition of doing so and specially good exports thanks to fact they are the "third party". ITAR free but not Chinese/Russian. In some cases like for Greece and probably Egypt also a geopolitical insurance.
And exactly for this reason I would have stuck with the Koreans.
The French have already a very strong chain of production, with establish industries for all components.(You should read their forum on what they think the Germans and Spanish can bring to the FCAS..... Nothing)
This means that yes you will produce 20% under license now but it will be a one time event.
Meanwhile with the KFX they had to develop the tech that wasn't available off-the-shelf, allowing this way a chance for partner to enter in the production loop not only for their own batch of fighters but also for further exports.
It is the difference between Italy and UK.
UK got as much UK components as they could inside the F-35, we meanwhile being a second tier partner, have negotiated only a finite amount of work share.
I don't know where things went wrong with the Koreans (but I can try to guess) but at least from an outside point of view the partecipation in the KF-21 looks(looked?) better than the Rafale one.
There has long been an established/recognised balance of power in the region with all accepting that Singapore holds a major advantage, all understanding why and none having the desire or interest to alter the balance of power. There are times however when certain countries acquire certain things in response to what others get [there are various long-standing unresolved claims within ASEAN] but yes, no arms race per see. Most procurement programmes have been capability rather than threat driven.
For certain countries prestige may play a part but yes it's mainly about modernisation, to ensure they don't fall too back behind in capabilities and technology and to.have some level of deterrence.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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I agree on that, however there're political 'ideals' in Indonesia to build indegenous fighter on its own. Even if this is going to fill all the plan of 10 operational fighters sq, it is not going to be enough. Indonesian fighters own population is just too small to justified that. Then again Politics rationale rule more in Indonesia then business common sense.
Personally the idea to build fighters on your own is folly this day around, unless you can provide enough population demand on your own. India try doing on their own for Tejas or later on their MRCA program as they have their own need of 40+ squadron. China and India are in my opinion can provide their own market for their own indegenous fighters.
For me the problem is for Indonesia the internal capacities and Investment power has to choose either one and will be hard to justified both of them. When you go with either Dasault or KAI for licensing and involve with 20% parts manufacturing, you are still going to have to Invest on your own facilities with more or less similar level of Investment.
Even now I still don't see enough political will to provide DI with level of Investment for Fighters part manufacturing or assembly line. Unlike the level political will to Invest and already provide money for Submarine facilities locally. Money trail is important.
Perhaps that's why they (present administration) choose Frenchie, to provide assistance for DI on needed Investment. That's why Jokowi talk on finding Partner that willing to help Indonesia on Defense Investment.
KAI from begining already talk to leverage as much as possible with off the shelf tech. That's why the development budget for KFX put at USD 10 bio at most. Quite small budget actually for developing a Gen 4.5 Fighter. In the mean time ROK is very keen from begining to get Indonesia involvement, more for providing market for their project, as by them selves they can not provide economic of scale.
Again I have no problem go with KF-21, however since they already choose Rafale and the deals include Industrial cooperation, I just don't see it is efficient for both Indonesia AF operation support and Industrial Investment on doing both project.
Indonesia in KFX is just a junior partner. Thus it is just another licensing agreement for KFX. The learning curve for learning under Dasault will not much difference with learning under KAI. The question is whether Indonesian Aerospace industries have capacities for both of them.
That's why for me personally, if Indonesia still want to work with KAI, better switch it to FA-50 then KF-21. Especialy after they already choose Rafale. At least it will give better operational effciency and fleet balance for TNI-AU, and potentialy less investment needed.
For export market potential, well KF-21 is still unproven product. Fighting export market with already proven product. I read Korean media that even doubt KF-21 cost can be put at USD 65 mio as what KAI projected. So the prospect of KF-21 export is still questionable, as they can only aim developing countries that want and able to mordernise, which are very price sensitive and relatively not that large.
This is the market that not only going to be targeted by proven MRCA product like F-16V, Grippen E, Rafale, Eurojet, Mig 35 and Su 35, but also new comers like J-10C, and Turkish TFX. It is crowded market already. So if Indonesia still choose politically involve with KFX project (I don't see other justification asside that), it's industrial benefit only more to Indonesian version population (IFX). I doubt KAI will give DI/IAe export job, considering how small the market potential that KAI will got.
Note:
That export rights is one of the reason why Jokowi's administration doing renegotiation. It's folly though, as Junior Partner never got their own export right in any projects.
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South Korea is a cheap, neutral source for mil-tech that is aligned to the US eco-system to some degree. But the sole disadvantage is South Korea as a country does not offer any strategic value compare to France, who is one of the Permanent Member of the UN Security Council. With CAASTA, Russia is no longer a viable source in the near future. That leaves countries like France, Turkey (similar to SK) to some degree to fill the gaps because of the desire to avoid being fully dependent on the US, even if it makes sense from a logistics standpoint.
CMIIW, even if you source US-tech from South Korea, the Korean still needs US approval to share certain tech.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Indonesian MinDef FB page give public explanation on what's Rafale performance. Second slide shown the armament. I do think this can be a 'peak' on what armament that they plan to bring in the Rafale packages.
Basically it's French and Euro stuff like; Mica, Meteor, SCALP, HAMMER, Exocet AM-39 and guided bombs. Well it's MRCA packages as they've put for an 'omnirole' fighter.
MBDA seems tighten their grip toward Indonesian missile market.
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Careful on overestimating French geopolitical power(Just see the last 10 years track record in north Africa, they failed in Lybia and are failing in Mali) .
And it isn't neutral.
Just see for example the Falklands/Malvinas and what happened with the Exocet. They stopped the export and helped the british to stop further missiles reaching Argentina (for example Peru wanted to buy and send them to Argentina).
Or the fact that they went from being Israel top defense supplier to embargo the country doing a complete 180°.
Everyone fails. US failed in Afghanistan, they didn't do well in Iraq, fucked up in Libya along with the UK. Does it make US less important?
Strategic relationships shouldn't be mongomous or exclusive, but you need to pick wisely and counter balance each other. SK, unfortunately, doesn't register much value strategically to Indonesia, compared to the big powers of the US, Russia, China, France, UK.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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French for Indonesia represent Western source of defense and strategic assets that's more or less shown independent from US and other Western policies. That's the pull on French for Indonesia.
Even in early 60's when Soekarno revolutionary path bring Indonesia close within USSR circle, French still provide mainstay of Indonesian Army armoured with AMX 13/VCCI family. This even as they know most likely that those can be used against Dutch in Papua.
Therefore despite TNI knows well that Frenchie stuff is also not to be cost effective to maintain relative toward some other Western stuff, French companies always under consideration as suppliers. It's considered Politically more reliable throughout times history as more reliable sources of defense equipment from West. At least for Indonesia.
I don't prefer French stuff considering more on cost to maintain. However I also understand for some Indonesian Political circles, French provide more independent sources, during what can be seen as Cold War 2.0.
Even in early 60's when Soekarno revolutionary path bring Indonesia close within USSR circle, French still provide mainstay of Indonesian Army armoured with AMX 13/VCCI family. This even as they know most likely that those can be used against Dutch in Papua.
Therefore despite TNI knows well that Frenchie stuff is also not to be cost effective to maintain relative toward some other Western stuff, French companies always under consideration as suppliers. It's considered Politically more reliable throughout times history as more reliable sources of defense equipment from West. At least for Indonesia.
I don't prefer French stuff considering more on cost to maintain. However I also understand for some Indonesian Political circles, French provide more independent sources, during what can be seen as Cold War 2.0.
As you said, a balance is needed.
Indonesia already has some level of relationship with the U S. and ties with South Korea and other countries supplements this. In the case of South Korea, it enables Indonesia to be a joint partner in the future South Korea 4-5th/5th LO fighter programme in a way which would not be possible with any other country. South Korea may not be able to offer what the U.S.can [or rather what it's willing to] but it can offer different things.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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ROK is not a new player for Indonesian Defense procurement. This goes back from the 80's during Soeharto time. TNI-AL first newly build LST are the Tacoma's from ROK. The first Exocet MM-38 armed missile boats also come from ROK. Those just only couple of example.
During Soeharto time M-48A5K was also in consideration asside Leopard 1-A5 as second hand MBT candidate for TNI-AD. Soeharto reluctance to introduce MBT to TNI-AD (plus his children business) resulted to Scorpion 90mm light tanks instead.
Thus ROK is not a new player, despite all the talk media and analysts of ROK increasing big push in Indonesian defense market recently, actually they are not. They already pretty big players for Indonesian market since Soeharto era. So they know how to play in to Indonesian political circles. That's how you become relative big players in Indonesia.
That's why I still put 50:50 chances for KF-21 end up in TNI-AU inventory. All now back to Indonesia Political will to provide enough Investment for procurement and Industrial support infrastructure for the program. KFX program always include calculation of 120 for ROKAF and 50 for TNI-AU as initial order for KF-21 Blk 1. Indonesia as until now still only give Diplomatic commitment and not yet money trail.
By number if all the procurement project come through all Political and Financial hurdle, TNI-AU fighters ORBAT in 2030+ potentially can consist off:
2 sq of upgrade F-16,
2-3 sq of Rafale,
2 sq of F-15, and
3 sq of KF-21 or (my hope) FA-50.
1 sq of COIN Super Tucano
That's basically make 10-11 sq of operational Fighters sq that TNI-AU hope. However can this be achieved with more balance fleet of power projections support assets (AEW, ISTAR, MRTT), that's the big question of Political commitment.
During Soeharto time M-48A5K was also in consideration asside Leopard 1-A5 as second hand MBT candidate for TNI-AD. Soeharto reluctance to introduce MBT to TNI-AD (plus his children business) resulted to Scorpion 90mm light tanks instead.
Thus ROK is not a new player, despite all the talk media and analysts of ROK increasing big push in Indonesian defense market recently, actually they are not. They already pretty big players for Indonesian market since Soeharto era. So they know how to play in to Indonesian political circles. That's how you become relative big players in Indonesia.
That's why I still put 50:50 chances for KF-21 end up in TNI-AU inventory. All now back to Indonesia Political will to provide enough Investment for procurement and Industrial support infrastructure for the program. KFX program always include calculation of 120 for ROKAF and 50 for TNI-AU as initial order for KF-21 Blk 1. Indonesia as until now still only give Diplomatic commitment and not yet money trail.
By number if all the procurement project come through all Political and Financial hurdle, TNI-AU fighters ORBAT in 2030+ potentially can consist off:
2 sq of upgrade F-16,
2-3 sq of Rafale,
2 sq of F-15, and
3 sq of KF-21 or (my hope) FA-50.
1 sq of COIN Super Tucano
That's basically make 10-11 sq of operational Fighters sq that TNI-AU hope. However can this be achieved with more balance fleet of power projections support assets (AEW, ISTAR, MRTT), that's the big question of Political commitment.
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the road runner
Active Member
Each aircraft type would have one training squadron correct(Operational Conversion Unit)? So you would NOT have 10-11 operating Squadrons ? You would have 6-7 operational Squadrons and 4 OCU Squadrons?
F-16 One (OCU)Training squadron?
Rafale One (OCU) training Squadron?
F-15 One (OCU)Training Squadron ?
KF-21/FA-50 One (OCU)Training Squadron?
This is why it would be better to just have 2 types of fighters as you would then gain 2 operational Squadrons
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