Indonesian Aero News

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
I continue to be confused by the Indonesian mixed bag approach to selecting defence equipment. It makes me wonder how they deal with everyday issues like training and maintenance. I haven't been able to find out anything about this but I am imagining it would be a nightmare.
Why simple and easy if you can make things confusing and complicated? We love challenges.

Some mixed stuff shouldn't be a problem, and diversity can be even a good thing. But if you have small quantities of many different types without a good reason, everyday issues like training and maintenance will become one big adventure.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Add to Sandhi post; "If complexity still work, why make it easy". This's not only in defense management including procurement. It's practically Indonesian Bureaucracy motto.

I have posted before forget in this thread or Indonesian Navy thread, I suspect in this thread perhaps few pages back. The priority of Indonesian Bureaucracy procurement are following this order:
1. "Politically" choices,
2. Budgetary concern,
3. Users technical consideration.

So, the technical consideration that actually knows which are assets that are most effective and efficient is in the back seat. Basically it works like this: Political choices and interest handle the driving steering wheel, the budgetary ('finance' people) at the 'shoot gun' position and the technical people in the back seat as passenger.

Just like in a family drive for vacation in a car. The Political that drive as dad decide where to go. 'Finance' people as mom will tell Dad if the direction can be meet by family budget. If Mom say dad's choice is not possible, then the 'Technical/users' as Children that actually knows where the fun places will be heard.

While the effective bureaucracy work like this: The Political choices in back seat as the Boss, told the technical guys as chauffeur where to go, and the chauffeur told the boss his routes recommendation. The finance guy in shoot gun act as the assistant told the boss which routes that meet time schedule. Then the boss tell : "whatever just get me in time with most confinience way, if not both of you will be in trouble. Now let me back to my nap".

See the difference ?
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Add to Sandhi post; "If complexity still work, why make it easy". This's not only in defense management including procurement. It's practically Indonesian Bureaucracy motto.

I have posted before forget in this thread or Indonesian Navy thread, I suspect in this thread perhaps few pages back. The priority of Indonesian Bureaucracy procurement are following this order:
1. "Politically" choices,
2. Budgetary concern,
3. Users technical consideration.

So, the technical consideration that actually knows which are assets that are most effective and efficient is in the back seat. Basically it works like this: Political choices and interest handle the driving steering wheel, the budgetary ('finance' people) at the 'shoot gun' position and the technical people in the back seat as passenger.

Just like in a family drive for vacation in a car. The Political that drive as dad decide where to go. 'Finance' people as mom will tell Dad if the direction can be meet by family budget. If Mom say dad's choice is not possible, then the 'Technical/users' as Children that actually knows where the fun places will be heard.

While the effective bureaucracy work like this: The Political choices in back seat as the Boss, told the technical guys as chauffeur where to go, and the chauffeur told the boss his routes recommendation. The finance guy in shoot gun act as the assistant told the boss which routes that meet time schedule. Then the boss tell : "whatever just get me in time with most confinience way, if not both of you will be in trouble. Now let me back to my nap".

See the difference ?
Normally i dont often share posts of your idol, but it seems that
"An Indonesian private party has offered a concept to government to develop new indigenous fighter aircraft. Capability will be below KFX,....."

Im quite speechless, but this idea is even more unrealistic than the R80. Its on the same level of fanboyish stupidity as the N2140.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Indonesian private party has offered a concept to government to develop new indigenous fighter aircraft. Capability will be below KFX,....."
Well Twitter guy send a lot off 'rumours' lately. Afterall this is his KPI (Key Performance Indicator) as sales agent. This is just part of problem when Politicall Interest is in driver seat (as I mentioned above).

Despite the agreement on KFX recently with ROK, it's still not clear where KFX place in budgetary priorities from both Mindef and 'finance' people. KFX not in the highest order for National Aerospace Industry frame work. It's been stated by BPPT (now BRIN). The priority order are N219, MALE UAV, N250 (as Civilian CN235 version). Other project including R80 and Indegenous Fighter are below that.

Only KFX fanboys that adamant KFX belong to highest order of priority. It's DI wish for KFX as part of higher Priority order, but so far the Politicall Will still not putting it there yet.

Problem with KFX is that the cost per plane will be actually higher then target of USD 60+ mio. Even Korean defense forums and media talk potential cost will increase to USD 80+mio - USD 100+mio. That's why ROK need Indonesia order number to reduce the cost, and even that, it will be very doubtfull on USD 60+mio as previous target. Fighter development costs everywhere has tendencies to inflate along the time. That's the fact.

With that cost, it will not be more economics then F-15EX, Rafale or Euro Fighter. The quantity number will also going to be smaller than those three, thus increase support maintance cost (which in turn overall operating costs). Certaintly higher then F-16V. This for benenit of only licensing KFX which will be not much different with licensing EF that Airbus offer around 5 years ago. Again any Junior Partner basically in legal position will not much different then License Holder. The overall IP rights will still be in hand of Senior Partner. Which is fair as they are the ones that take the most of the risk.

FFMi9BAVEAIkSuM.jpeg

Gatra magazine already talk on the meaning of French-Indonesia defense industry agreement that the base signed by Prabowo and Parly in June and solidified by Jokowi and Macron in G20. For TNI-AU if they still go with Rafale (depending on 'finance' people can agree on financing package), personally I'm very doubtfull Indonesia can continue licensing KFX which cost price already reaching Rafale, EF and F-15EX zone.

So there's where Twitter guy rumours come from. The talk/rumours on building indegenous design with the help from Frenchie (Twitter guy afterall Frenchie sales agent). Something with the cost that are more economical then KFX latest projected cost, with IP that can be hold by Indonesia.

Again it's just part of various rumours, talk, and propositions being circulated within MinDef. Snippets that I got from 'finance' people always said Indonesian Bureacracy (including in MinDef) have so many potential projects, and their Job to put sanity order (just like a Mom do ;) when Dad want a new toys).

Let's see how this's developing. As I have mentioned some time ago, Jokowi wants Defense Investment not just Defense Procurement. Thus it's means Local Industry involvement.

KFX is not the only way to get Indonesian Industrial involvement on Fighter project. It's open on probality Indonesia involve with KAI to gain access on Fighter development project, then go seperate ways on developing Indonesia's own project (not KFX based). However it's also open to goes to other source (like French) and developing Indonesia's own with their support. Or it's also open not developing any own fighter and just licensing whatever fighter available to license (just like this KFX project).

With Politics as the driver on defense project, anything can happen.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Well Twitter guy send a lot off 'rumours' lately. Afterall this is his KPI (Key Performance Indicator) as sales agent. This is just part of problem when Politicall Interest is in driver seat (as I mentioned above).

Despite the agreement on KFX recently with ROK, it's still not clear where KFX place in budgetary priorities from both Mindef and 'finance' people. KFX not in the highest order for National Aerospace Industry frame work. It's been stated by BPPT (now BRIN). The priority order are N219, MALE UAV, N250 (as Civilian CN235 version). Other project including R80 and Indegenous Fighter are below that.

Only KFX fanboys that adamant KFX belong to highest order of priority. It's DI wish for KFX as part of higher Priority order, but so far the Politicall Will still not putting it there yet.

Problem with KFX is that the cost per plane will be actually higher then target of USD 60+ mio. Even Korean defense forums and media talk potential cost will increase to USD 80+mio - USD 100+mio. That's why ROK need Indonesia order number to reduce the cost, and even that, it will be very doubtfull on USD 60+mio as previous target. Fighter development costs everywhere has tendencies to inflate along the time. That's the fact.

With that cost, it will not be more economics then F-15EX, Rafale or Euro Fighter. The quantity number will also going to be smaller than those three, thus increase support maintance cost (which in turn overall operating costs). Certaintly higher then F-16V. This for benenit of only licensing KFX which will be not much different with licensing EF that Airbus offer around 5 years ago. Again any Junior Partner basically in legal position will not much different then License Holder. The overall IP rights will still be in hand of Senior Partner. Which is fair as they are the ones that take the most of the risk.

View attachment 48692

Gatra magazine already talk on the meaning of French-Indonesia defense industry agreement that the base signed by Prabowo and Parly in June and solidified by Jokowi and Macron in G20. For TNI-AU if they still go with Rafale (depending on 'finance' people can agree on financing package), personally I'm very doubtfull Indonesia can continue licensing KFX which cost price already reaching Rafale, EF and F-15EX zone.

So there's where Twitter guy rumours come from. The talk/rumours on building indegenous design with the help from Frenchie (Twitter guy afterall Frenchie sales agent). Something with the cost that are more economical then KFX latest projected cost, with IP that can be hold by Indonesia.

Again it's just part of various rumours, talk, and propositions being circulated within MinDef. Snippets that I got from 'finance' people always said Indonesian Bureacracy (including in MinDef) have so many potential projects, and their Job to put sanity order (just like a Mom do ;) when Dad want a new toys).

Let's see how this's developing. As I have mentioned some time ago, Jokowi wants Defense Investment not just Defense Procurement. Thus it's means Local Industry involvement.

KFX is not the only way to get Indonesian Industrial involvement on Fighter project. It's open on probality Indonesia involve with KAI to gain access on Fighter development project, then go seperate ways on developing Indonesia's own project (not KFX based). However it's also open to goes to other source (like French) and developing Indonesia's own with their support. Or it's also open not developing any own fighter and just licensing whatever fighter available to license (just like this KFX project).

With Politics as the driver on defense project, anything can happen.
Yes.
1. N219
2. Elang Hitam UAV
3. N245
This list in this sequence makes sense. These are the projects with the lowest risks and compared to other projects the costs can be kept more or less under control.
But ive the feeling that the R80 and indigenous fighter are not a priority at all. Actually even less likely to happen than Indonesia's participation in the KF-X project.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
By the end of this administrations in 24, if N219 already enter production, Prototype of MALE UAV already reach operational stage capabilities and N245 (some sources say N250) already in development stage, then it's already big achievement for Indonesian Aerospace and DI.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Good development. Big chance that the N219 will be a more cost-effective MPA-platform than the NC212.
The NC212 has a greater range, but still, the N219 is the perfect replacement for the GAF N22/N24.

So with this new configuration, the N219 will come in four configurations including passenger, medical evacuation and cargo, and surveillance.



At last some news about the N219, but they didn't tell when the serial production of the N219 will start.

Here an article from the website of Infoglobal.
|"Mission System Infoglobal yang sebelumnya telah terpasang di pesawat NC212 Patroli Maritim (Patmar) akan dikembangkan lebih lanjut untuk digunakan di pesawat N219 MSA yang diproduksi PTDI."|

So there is a big chance that there will be similarities between the mission systems of the NC212 MPA and the N219 MSA.

 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
PT Universal Jet Indonesia seems to exist for more than 9 years, and this company even planned in 2013 to take over Riau Airlines, but this company is nowhere to be found on any list of Indonesian airlines, AOC 121 or 135. It doesn't posses any aircrafts and it even have not an own website. (Please correct me if im wrong)

So i am quite skeptical about this contract. Hopefully it will not end up like Kartika Airlines' order of 15 SSJ-100 in 2012. That airline was already bankrupt before the restart was decently finished.


http://instagr.am/p/CXWBYRHvCNq/
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Universal Jet Indonesia seems to exist for more than 9 years, and this company even planned in 2013 to take over Riau Airlines, but this company is nowhere to be found on any list of Indonesian airlines,
This company mostly doing charter business and some 'wet lease' activities. Thus it is not a commercial schedulle airlines company. Banks and Financial Institutions that financing aircraft, mostly done it through 'dry lease' activities.

For that, wet leasing mostly done for short term operations and the aircraft can move from one operators to another, while their crew still the same. That's why many airplane charter business also doing wet leasing business.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Elang Hitam UAV, good to see that this project isn't dead yet.
And this looks like a flyable prototype, not just a mock-up/presentation model.

Looking to the tailnumber LL-0119, this has to be the second aircraft of the additional order of 3 KT-1Bs. So if im not wrong, if all the three aircrafts are delivered, TNI-AU has received in total 20 KT-1B, bringing the fleet back to 17 pieces after 3 lost in accidents.
 
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Arji

Member
Elang Hitam UAV, good to see that this project isn't dead yet.
And this looks like a flyable prototype, not just a mock-up/presentation model.
Good to know, I hope this is still the case. I'm a bit worried since I've got a chance to chat with a few industry veteran the other day, and they said the program is no longer funded.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I'm a bit worried since I've got a chance to chat with a few industry veteran the other day, and they said the program is no longer funded.

The priority order are N219, MALE UAV, N250 (as Civilian CN235 version). Other project including R80 and Indegenous Fighter are below that.
I put what I wrote from my previous post. This's what I gather from media and some snippets that I got from 'finance' people. Simply said the 'finance' people and the SOE ministry only want to fund projects that they see already shown promisses and have good traction to be executed efficiently (in all SOE).

For that any fund for DI or Domestic Aero Projects will be given base on that order. In sense the snippets that I got imdicating the administration will not give further fund, unless they see the project traction's proven. I suspect they have to shown prove of concept on this MALE project from their prototype first.

Any fund for Aero project will be given for N219 transformation stage from Prototype to Production. It's important also for DI as prove of their project management. Abilities for DI as commercial aero SOE must be shown to turn N219 as money makers.

After that if DI-BRIN MALE UAV prove of concept stage being deemed succesful, they will asses DI own fund availabilities to see if Government need to inject more or not.

This is what I have been wrote before. Many in administration already reluctant to give more fund to DI, if that SOE can not prove to turn a project toward profitable ones. DI already have many projects that only taking money and not making one.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

More NASAM ? Well they better secure more AMRAAM first. With the plethora of Short Defense missile and VSHORAD types that TNI accumulated (after Soeharto's basically standardize with Rapier), it's good thing they back to some kind of standardisation on Medium range SAM with NASAM system.

They have not decided yet on Long Range SAM which will be truly replacement for SA-2 capabilities that TNI lost in 70's. I also hope they're doing more standardize on Sea Based and Land Based SAM. Mistral is the only SAM type that Land and Sea based forces use.

Let's see how they're going on missile standardisation drive. TNI has quantity of missile types but not in quantity of missile it self. As far as I can get, TNI only manage to accumulate enough quantity inventory with SA-2 and Rapier. Although Mistral seems got more drive to be acquire more for inventory.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Don't worry, its just about "potensi peningkatan kerja sama di bidang industri pertahanan".
As always just an agreement to increase/improve the cooperation in the defence industry, or in this case a potential increase/improve the cooperation in the defence industry.

Its also only a visit of an ambassador, not a minister of defence/foreign affairs and Kongsberg staff. Just the usual handshake+smile+present+proud announcements package in order to let fanboys fantasizing again.

And like you already said, ordering even more empty NASAMS-launchers without missiles is useless.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Well I just do hope no more side business on getting more type of missiles. Let those Grom and QW-3 phased out in time.

Hope they can consolidate with Mistral or other MBDA and Raytheon missiles. The important thing is simplified logistics chain not only in equipment but also in ammo and missiles.

If they can transform TNI toward that, it's already huge steps.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This talk on French online defense media base on what La Tribune wrote below.


I put link to both of them since the article in La Tribune will not shown all unless you're subscriber of La Tribune. Basically it's wrote that Indonesia will order new build Rafale but will order not all 36 (as Prabowo and Parly signed in June) but in batch of 6-12. I put it in here because eventough no official announcement yet from Indonesia side, but it's wrote by La Tribune. Thus La Tribune will not wrote it, unless they got some confirmation too from Frenchie side.

Seems officialy MinDef still in position toward obtaining both Rafale and F-15EX. All the negotiations for Fighters procument with Frenchie and US centered on both type, and discusion with 'finance' people will also centered on how to get financimg line approve for both type.

So I guess eventough LM still rumours lobby for F-16V, Rafale seems in the eyes on MinDef is the appropriate 'political' choice to fill F-16 function in future.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
This is just my assesment, base on historical operation of AURI/TNI-AU. So if anyone have different perspective feel free to counter argument my thinking.

As my previous posts put it, TNI procurement in all three branches throughout history always dictate by Political Choices first and users preferences push down below. It's not unusual for any country defense procurement dictate by Geopolitical position. However how Users/Military can influence the procurement choice vs Political choice is what differed between countries.

For that I'm doing personal assement on AURI/TNI-AU combatan assets throughout time, to see if the functions choices relative toward type being used. Functions choices sustaint trend in my opinion will be influence more on users input.

Let's begin in 60's during Soekarno' regime time. This is the height of Papua and then Konfrontasi crisis. AURI (TNI-AU being called that time) at that time have several assets, but in my opinion it's backbone centered on Mig17 (as now can be considered as Light Fighter), Mig21 (as interceptor) and Tu-16 and Il-28 as Long Range bomber/Strike Assets. I don't calculate Mig19 as only used by AURI in short period, and Soekarno then 'donate' them to Pakistan in support their position toward India in conflicts.

After Soekarno fall and early times of Soeharto, the functions of Light Fighter/Strike and Interceptor being fill by T-33 and F-86. Until they manage enough fund for A-4 and F-5. In sense they are maintain at least Light Strike and Interceptor functions.

In later part of Soeharto's regime, Interceptor role being call MRCA with F-16 and Light Strike Hawk 209 replacing A-4. F-16 actually plan to be at least 2-3 sq thus eventually replacing F-5. However then East Timor problem arise, thus Soeharto begin toying the idea with Flankers.

Economic crisis, Soeharto falls and Continues Western embargo, put subsequent Indonesian administrations after that to go with Russia on Flankers. However in my opinion this open function that not available to TNI-AU since AURI times in 60's. Function of long range strike especialy with Su-30. Thus Russian assets not replacing existing functions of MRCA and LCA, despite some Political lobby try to do. Second term of SBY's admin with more 'close' ties with Obama's administration, open more F-16 as MRCA.

For that what're functions Rafale or F-15EX actualy going to fill with TNI-AU. Based on my understanding from what TNI-AU plan and some leaks on MinDef latest presentation to Parliement and media sources. Rafale aim in the end as F-16 replacement as MRCA and F-15EX as Long Range Strike assets for Flankers replacement. Thus if Rafale being selected, then there will be no F-16V. Is either one and not both.

Off course with existing F-16 just doing upgrade and even Flankers doing some MLU, those replacements will happen in gradually. It's also related with financial resources available that if they are still aim for both Rafale and F-15EX , at most next year they can only finance 6-12 Rafale and 6-8 F-15EX.

Thus eventough Politics dictate the assets choices, but as users TNI-AU still try to be consistents in operational functions. At least users perhaps have less capabilities to influences procurement types then Politics, but they still able to influence the funcitional types being procured.

Not ideal, but seems it is the middle ground being compromise.

Note:
I don't put KFX in the equation cause I simply don't see any availability on financing, if MinDef still choice both Rafale and F-15EX for that program. Just like I put in my previous post, follow money trail.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

This talk on French online defense media base on what La Tribune wrote below.


I put link to both of them since the article in La Tribune will not shown all unless you're subscriber of La Tribune. Basically it's wrote that Indonesia will order new build Rafale but will order not all 36 (as Prabowo and Parly signed in June) but in batch of 6-12. I put it in here because eventough no official announcement yet from Indonesia side, but it's wrote by La Tribune. Thus La Tribune will not wrote it, unless they got some confirmation too from Frenchie side.

Seems officialy MinDef still in position toward obtaining both Rafale and F-15EX. All the negotiations for Fighters procument with Frenchie and US centered on both type, and discusion with 'finance' people will also centered on how to get financimg line approve for both type.

So I guess eventough LM still rumours lobby for F-16V, Rafale seems in the eyes on MinDef is the appropriate 'political' choice to fill F-16 function in future.

|"The first priority for Jakarta is to replace the exhausted Su-27."|

1. Those Sukhois should have enough flight hours left over.
2. The first priority is actually the retired F-5E/F.

In my opinion Indonesia should do this:
- Get those 36 Rafales.
- Forget the F-15EX and order more F-16s, second hand F-16C/Ds or new F-16V.
- Upgrade the Sukhois to Su-30SME level.
- After this we can replace the Hawks with more T-50s.
 
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