Indonesian Aero News

ChestnutTree

Active Member
Unless they are dropping plan for Rafale and F-15.
I stand by my opinion that the MinDef is simply adamant on Rafale just to improve his own political chances at presidency. I'm not going to be surprised if at the end he does a complete 180' and announces an order for the F-16V. Because unless some economic miracle happens, the budget and financing limit set by the Ministry of Finance doesn't really allow them to pick anything other than the F-16V.

I would say that this news strongly implies that the TNI AU is prioritizing supporting assets over the MRCA program. For the most part I think they know that they need to seriously improve airlift capability (considering Indonesia's geography) as well as improving their early warning system and IADS network. Considering PT LEN is already in cooperation with Leonardo (unlike just an LoI with the Rafale) I wouldn't be surprised if the next big news we hear is either the TNI AU inspecting or procuring the Wedgetail/Erieye or MRTT/KC-46 over the Rafale/F-15.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I'm not going to be surprised if at the end he does a complete 180' and announces an order for the F-16V. Because unless some economic miracle happens, the budget and financing limit set by the Ministry of Finance doesn't really allow them to pick anything other than the F-16V.
Well @ChestnutTree that's why I said in Indonesian threads, follow the money trail. Prabowo even Jokowi need to shown they manage to provide development for TNI. It's for Prabowo next political capital (as you mentioned) and also part of Jokowi Political Legacy (he do have political future to think, he definetely doesn't want to end up like SBY now).

So I do sense some MRCA will still be acquiare, and chances of F-16 family still there. Some Indonesian military insiders put pictures of either Rafale or even still proceed with Su-35, by saying US don't want to give F-15. Well I do sense US inclined to offer F-16V not due to their unwillingnes to offer F-15, but because they know what TNI-AU wish list and how much budget available.

The budget for 10-12 Su-35 actualy already allocated. Perhaps with that amount, they can get 8 F-15. Then use some budget for 2 sq of F-16 (perhaps combo F-16V and Some Refurbished ex USAF block 30/40 upgrade to Block 52). With that the rest TNI-AU wish list of ISTAR, AEW, Tanker-Transport, and upgrading GCI coverage can still be more realistically achieved within budget. Definetely other assets that TNI-AU wants can not be achieve if they want to buy those 24-36 Rafale (with the amount of foreign financing available plan on this term).

That's why I always look on how far the 'finance' people willing to provide, cause again the so call defense insiders can talk all they want on MinDef and TNI plan, but in the end money talks.

Perhaps that's why LM still shown optimism so far with Indonesian market.
 
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ChestnutTree

Active Member
I honestly don't really see a way for Prabowo to get the Rafale unless the credit ceiling is raised. French equipment is already more expensive to procure let alone than its US counterparts. And considering the TNI AU just went public with the C-130J it's a clear signal that they have different priorities compared to Prabowo.

Even with the F-15 I am a bit skeptical. Yes sure it shares a lot of common parts with the F-16 but it's going to take a lot of money and time to get just IOC. Money which I doubt the government would be willing to spend.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I already put in this thread, the most logical way to get to 11 Sq Fighters that TNI-AU envision, is stick with F-16 and FA-50. I believe TNI-AU brass knows that, as their give hints in media before. It's within budget (both on procurement and maintenance). While in same time provide ample room in budget for other assets development that being envisioned.

However we know most logical ways is not always being follow all the way by MinDef. There's always Political consideration that 'disturb' the logical development. So I put scenario of 8 F-15 and 2 sq of F-16 as balance between logics and politics.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
DI officially put video for virtual tour on N219.


This seems part of their preparation for launching N219 to the market.
Thank you for sharing.
After they got the Type Certificate last year, there were no any updates or reports about the N219, so its nice to see that this project still exists.

The last newsreport about the Elang Hitam UAV was from begin this year, at that time the first flight was planned for August this year.....
 

koxinga

Active Member
How much does wait time factor in the decision for the F-16V, if politics is not a factor? Based on the current orders (>130), any orders now can only be fulfilled by LM around 2025 or later if I am not wrong.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Officially the delay now more due to COVID situation. However it's well known that LM and Dasault 'agents' work hard on getting the deal soon. They (the administration) seems pushing the vaccination drive in order to stabilize COVID infection rate.

They will not going to announce any new big projects (including defense infrastructure) if the infection rate still run wild. The numbers now already stabilising since end of last month. Thus they begin to shown continuation of big projects, including defense. We already see they come out to media on C-130J (which clearly the process before being kept down from public/media during COVID).

Rumours circulate that by 4th quarter more big projects will be announce on continuation. So I suspect either 4th quarter or 1st quarter next year. Again all depends on COVID situation.

Prabowo's already talk in media, that any new fighters will need around 2-3 years as soonest to get into TNI-AU operation. Even the Fighters packages is combo of new plus refurbished fighters, it will taken at least 2 years on operational. So if they finalise the deal by end of this year, it will be around end of 2024 the first one will be operational (the soonest).

It will be coincide with next election, which make it also Political incentive for Prabowo's to get the deal by 4th quarter of this year. Still any huge spike of COVID (especially in Java-Bali) will potentialy delayed any big projects announcement. That's why I said (in COVID thread) that Indonesian administration will try to get 60-80% full vaccination in Java-Bali by 4th quarter of this year. Java-Bali after all represent 2/3 of economy. If Java-Bali stabilize, they can have more room to begin new projects again, including big defense items.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

I only put the tweeter guy tweet if I found a particular ridiculous tweet. This one really belong to that. In sense he's right that to improve chances of export, N219 need either FAA safety certificate or EASA ones. However (talking to Industry people) not necessarily both of them needed. You got both is good thing but either one already provide back up for your export campaign.

What make it his tweet ridiculous, and showing his desperation as Frenchie/Euro agent:
1. Base on his logic, buying LM products can also provide help from LM to help DI get FAA license. So why should buy Rafale, if LM can help getting FAA license.
2. Why DI need Dasault to get Euro license, when they already have long term connection with Airbus. DI after all already part of Airbus ecosystem. Certainly Airbus have more connection to EASA then Dasault.

This tweeter shown his desperation for Dasault deals. Trying to sell to the public the advantage for Dasault/Frenchie deals. Perhaps the rumours is right, that MinDef and MoF leaning to LM cause the available budget will not be enough to finance other TNI-AU wish list, if Rafale including.
 
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