Indonesian Aero News

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

After string of LM media exposure for their F-16V cause, then Russian also doing media campaign with their Ambassador lobbying Indonesian power maker Megawati (5th President and ruling party chief) and talking for Russian commitment for Indonesian defense development. They also talk that Su-35 will always ready for Indonesia.

Now the trend are for Frenchie shown their media campaign. Well not wait too long, some local 'analyst' are already went to media for Rafale causes. We know that Twitter 'guy' already talking no chances for F-16, and suggest maintaining the fleet for future replacement. Well whose going to replace all ? Why not going to all 'French' ;)

The closer the decision need to be made, the more 'Lobby' come behind the door and out open in Media. Will it come to climax soon, or back to anticlimactic condition ? Once I said the Indonesian defense procurement are full of 'drama', question will the drama end like Indonesian soap opera, or like K drama, or Euro visions, or American day time TV show..:D
Its better not to stress about lobbyists. Specially if in the end until 2024 nothing will be bought..

Anyway, here a very spectacular and impressive video.
This combination of ZU-23-2KG (or chinese ZU-23-2 copies) and S-60 will be very effective....if the opponent decides to attack with WW II aircrafts.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
better not to stress about lobbyists. Specially if
;)everything is fluid right now. I'm not stress the lobbyist, but more as spectator on Political drama that can come out.


Now, there're sign the ruling coalition going to close ranks. Some guys try to come out as the hero to safe TNI, or try to build base for next election. That's why I said the drama just begin, again. Next overtures will come out, and seems soon.

Don't forget, the devil always in details.
 

PTamb

New Member
;)everything is fluid right now. I'm not stress the lobbyist, but more as spectator on Political drama that can come out.


Now, there're sign the ruling coalition going to close ranks. Some guys try to come out as the hero to safe TNI, or try to build base for next election. That's why I said the drama just begin, again. Next overtures will come out, and seems soon.

Don't forget, the devil always in details.
this is very interesting. Ive been following the discussion about this 25 years tenure in this thread and today surprisingly in the news today, Gen. Rodon said the 25 year tenure would not burden the national budget. but confirmed that its a foreign loan.

this drama is keep building up based on miss-information. Which would hinder the purpose of the plan itself.

season 2 is coming up
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
There's too many assessment and counter perceptions that being circulate by conflicting interest parties. For me, I see this part of drama come after some 'Analyst' put into the public not only the amount of plan procurement, but more importantly the plan of centralising the procurement program under that one company.

As I have mentioned before, this plan disturb too many interest. Centralising the procurement under one roof, even though has merit, will create havoc on the defense brokerage and analysts/agents establishment. I have mentioned how those 'insiders' create companies that goes from one bank to another, one financial institution to another on getting Financial backup based only on 'cover letters' from brass that they have manage to lobby. If that game now has to get through one gate only, well how many 'side projects' that will be at risk ?

I'm not saying this plan already in right track. After Soeharto fall everyone that have 'jurisdictions' now can create their own projects. We went from centralized corruption to decentralized ones. Even Mahfud MD as Jokowi's coordinating Minister acknowledge that. Mahfud MD: Sekarang Korupsi Lebih Gila daripada Zaman Orde Baru
That's rare that any high ranking officials in this 'democratic' era acknowledge that. This's already known for this past two decades, but seldom anyone in high position acknowledge that actually we're in some area doing worse then Soeharto era.

One of the area (resulting of that situation) is in the area of long term planning and commitment. With too many decentralized interest, any changes in leadership will create new interest on new side projects. Who cares for long term planning interest.

So, I'll wait on details on this plan. How they are going to commit on long term projects, what kind of assets and what vendors they are going to work with. How the installment schedules will be drawn, cause that essential for any long term projects sustainability.

This plan call for close to USD 80bio on defense procurement for twenty years period. Actually the amount it's not much different then when SBY's first Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono calculate as MEF plan up to 2024 (which's also 20 years calculation). The difference now Prabowo's wants that amount being committed in front for next 20 years program.

The concept is not wrong in my opinion, it has more merit with present practices that tend creating short term sidelines. Problem in Indonesia always what's the details and how to make sure long term planning being committed.

In 90's, Habibie under Soeharto's being charged to build Indonesian Military complex with detail programs on how to achieve that. Some of that as I've wrote before has been put in planning during 1996 Indonesian Air and Defense show. I also (as Junior officer in Financial Institution back then) perplexed how we as nation (with then Economics ability) going to be able financing them.

However at least they have more details plan, compared to present condition. Even when Habibie's plan have many economist and financial people shaking their head as it's still have many shortcomings on business and financing models.

Thus, until we see how the details on this plan program, we are going to continue see more dramas. After all many interests now feeling deep disturbance on their business lifeline continuations.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
For the people who are not member of Tempo.

Big chance this is in preparation for the A330 MRTT.
But it is ofcourse also possible that GMF will be involved in becoming the MRO-center for other aircraft types.

And as a bonus a nice photo Indonesian Air Force T-50i jet trainers/light fighters flying over Mount Rinjani, Lombok. Source: skadronudara15official
 

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Arji

Member
I'm confused, there is information there that I feel are not entirely accurate, like the leopard bit. I don't remember any plan for additional Leopard purchases (I only know of the 100 original purchase), nor do I ever hear Jokowi or Prabowo give their take on the Leopard procurement, maybe I just forgot. I also think the article misheard or misunderstand some of the information. I don't think Prabowo is planning to buy 36 Rafale + 36 F-15EX. My best guess is that he is pursuing both deal and see who'll win in the end, so it's probably either one or the other, or maybe it's just 36 Rafale, and "a few" F-15EX. My point is, If they do make a mistake regarding these things, it's kind of hard to rely on the rest of the information written in the article.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
But it is ofcourse also possible that GMF will be involved in becoming the MRO-center for other aircraft types.
GMF Aero already told media couple years ago that they are pursuing Military contracts. GMF Aero it self still perform better financially compared to their parent company. Their track record is better then any MRO company in Indonesia, including DI MRO Division.


. I don't remember any plan for additional Leopard purchases
That seems surprised many defense enthusiasts and military analysts in Indonesia. This lead to speculation that The Army not really satisfied with Pindad-FNSS Black Tiger medium tank. However that one I believe will be in less priority.

There's previous discussion between Pindad and Rheinmettal though in late SBY era on getting technical transfer and work share doing Leo2 A4 upgrade toward Rheinmettal Revolution packages for the non upgrade Leo2 A4 in inventory. However no progress on that during Jokowi's era. Perhaps this is related to that, plus some additional A4 surplus still left in Bundeswhear inventory.

I don't think Prabowo is planning to buy 36 Rafale + 36 F-15EX
There's talk from people that have access to Parliament Staff, that Rafale and F-15EX basically submitted as replacement for F-16V and Su-35 that already got approval from Parliament in previous term.

Previous term plan called for 2 sq of F-16V (24 with option to 32) and 1 sq of Su-35 (12 with option to 16). Prabowo's meeting with Trump secretary of defense and Luhut's meeting with Trump himself, seems asking US to provide F-15EX as compensation for Indonesia dropping Flankers.

Despite all the talk on F-35 and US insistence for Indonesia on F-16V first, some informations leaking from MinDef team that they're aiming for more concrete off set deals. Thus Prabowo's team tendencies toward Rafale compared to F-16V, perhaps related toward Dasault and French off set offer that are more substantial then what LM able to offer.

But then again, like I said before everything still fluid. We still don't know what the budget amount, including foreign Credit line being agreed on. LM as I put in my previous post also still lobbying hard, and they have cut Dasault before on last round lobbying in 80's, when Mirage 2000 shown leading F-16 A/B.

Add:
Altough this time around there's more 'rumours' going around on Dasault got much more lead over LM compare to the 80's during Mirage 2000 vs F-16A/B.
It will be interesting also to see if Rafale being choosen with enough Off Set deals and more substantial Tech Transfer packages, will this administrations still have 'apetite' for KFX ? Face it the promissed capabilities of KFX will only at par with present and future development on Rafale.

Well they better got good deals on off set, tech transfer and MRO on Rafale. It will cost arms and leg big time, if they don't provide significant work share with local industry to maintain them.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
FB_IMG_1623208598432.jpg

This is from Kris FB page. I put it in here not to talk specific on this program but more toward the continuation of what I've put on Post #2003 on this thread.

The Kris FB page also shown more slides on the progress of program, that clearly shown development assistance from China. What China do seems shown that they're taking what Indonesian hard to get from other foreign sources. Especially the assistance for multiple stages technology.

That's a sensitive technology, that can provide abilities for both atmospheric satellite delivery vehicle, regional balistic missiles capabilities, also area defense anti air capabilities.

Eventough the project provide venue for multiple Strategic SOE collaboration, but what China provide is guidance on how to do it. This's one of reason that eventough Indonesia already shown precaution toward China in defense matter (shown on the defense procurement and tech co-op trends), but can't neglect China altogether as they're also shown willingness to help Indonesia on some 'sensitive' tech development.
 

Arji

Member
Without some kind of a guidance tech, it will still be a dumb rocket. I wonder how we will source this particular tech... cause I have some reservation with using Chinese tech for this particular component.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
If we see the slide above, guidance tech are responsibility of LEN, INTI and Infoglobal. Those companies have exposures on electronics, sensors and microwave connection projects. Not I'm saying they can developed all in house, but they're already in that business for sometime to be able integrating off the shelf tech in the market.

Actually getting guidance technology is easier then rocket/missile tech. The latter part talking more on metallurgy and chemical propellant tech. There're more off the shelf tech available on sensors and electronics compared to Missiles ones. Metallurgy for example is something that Indonesian research and tech companies have most problematic to catch on.

LAPAN so far seems shown to the public their efforts on developing unguided rockets. However talking to some people that have know how on rocketry, those kind of tech (rocket metallurgy and propellant) are the most restrictive tech in global market. So, if China willing to help Indonesia on that area, it's something that so far Indonesian research eagerly take. As it's difficult to find other partner that willing to work with.

Hamas for example build hundreds even thousands rocket on their underground facilities based on Iran guidance tech. However actually close to half of their Rocket has not launch properly, or falling down before they get intercept by Israel Iron Dome. One of the problem is poor materials of those rockets. This shown how important proper metallurgy on building casings and engines components.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
…So, if China willing to help Indonesia on that area, it's something that so far Indonesian research eagerly take. As it's difficult to find other partner that willing to work with.
China does transfer rocket technology to multiple countries, including to Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan and Iran.
…However actually close to half of their Rocket has not launch properly, or falling down before they get intercept by Israel Iron Dome. One of the problem is poor materials of those rockets. This shown how important proper metallurgy on building casings and engines components.
Not 50% rocket misfire :). Hamas and PIJ have a combined 16.5% misfire rate for their 11 days for rocket launches — anything between 1% to 5% is a low misfire rate — that Indonesia can easily achieve. The trick is having manufacturing processes to reduce the misfire rate to between 0.1% to 0.5%.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Not 50% rocket misfire :). Hamas and PIJ have a combined 16.5% misfire rate for their 11 days for rocket launches
Hahhah..:eek: read bad sources I must be :D

The trick is having manufacturing processes to reduce the misfire rate to between 0.1% to 0.5%.
Seems that's one of trick that the Indonesian SOE consortium try to gain from China. If we look on the slide, the materials manufacturing will be part of projects that Lapan, DI, Pindad and Indonesian Research Agency/BPPT try to work with. Those four that usually involve with metalurgy and materials projects.

China does transfer rocket technology to multiple countries, including to Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan and Iran.
Guess that one of China effort on gaining influences. They provide technology that otherwise hard to get by in the market. There're vendors that can sources for countries that want to developed aviation defense items like Electronics and Sensors. Still not much that want to share development on rocketry.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Anyone has any confirmation for a signing of contract for 36 Rafale fighter? I got this from Airspace Review. I don't know how reliable the article is, since it only claims that it has a source that knows about the signing of the contract. But the article is new, and it's after the mostly-confirmed news of the FREMM Frigates contract.

Kabar baik, Kemhan dan Dassault sudah tandatangani kontrak 36 Rafale
Thank you for sharing.
It doesnt look like this is the final contract. Not yet an official announcement from Dassault-Breguet...
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I'm still hoping for sanity check coming to the decision makers on this talk of Rafale and F-15EX. I'm talking more on the budget capabilities for effective operational and supporting realities.

Despite all the talk on Indonesian potential economic growth size, they have to face realities that too many 'IF' factor still hangin on this plan on supporting both Rafale and F-15EX. The realities that TNI-AU still facing difficulties from time to time on supporting Flankers, how they are going to support F-15EX ?

There's soo many factors that hindered the plan for Defense Budget of 1.5% GDP. For foreseable future on this decade, it will be good if somehow the next administrations can afford 1% GDP for defense in sustain level. That kind of amount will not be able to support an Air Force with F-16, Flankers, Rafale and F-15. Even somehow by the end of this decade they 'ditch' Flankers for F-15, but together with Rafale (instead F-16), it's just too costly to maintain effectively.

This idea of 'diversification' supplier sources that still hangin high on MinDef and TNI brass in doing strategic planing, doesn't mean also have to build an 'expensive' fleet that difficult to support with annual budget restrictions. If they still aiming for Rafale, then forget F-15. Building fleet with two of double engine fighters that being known to be expensive to maintain, is not something that Indonesia can afford.

I'm not a defense profesional, just a finance guy that happen to be defense enthusiats. However if a client of mine comming to my Bank for proposal to build his comercial fleets with all most expensive assets available in Market, I will send him/her out through the door. I will tell them, don't waste my time and their time. That proposal will not work, as it can't be support efficiently.

Like I said before in one of my posts, there's much similarities on running a fleet, whether it's for commercial or military. You have to calculate not just capabilities, but what is the most effective ways to keep the fleet running. What's the point to have All Mercedes and Lexus fleet if you run out money to keep them in effective operation. If you want Lexus in your fleet then make sure the rest are average dependable Toyota's.

So if Indonesian MinDef still adamant to have Rafale, then let the rest of fleet consist of F-16 or LCA like FA-50. Ditch expensive maintenance assets like Flankers, forget F-15, KFX, or dream of F-35 at least for another decade. Be realistics that by end of this decade, unless there's significant shift on Geopolitical security situation, Indonesia can only afford 1% of GDP defense budget.

I might be have wrote this kind of 'ranting' before. Sorry if I wrote similar thing again. I do hope sanity checks from my 'Finance' coleagues in Government Institutions can bring back this defense procurement process back to realities based. I know they are sometimes facing much political pressure from 'opportunists' especialy on second term administrations. I hope the best for them to keep back realities on the ground.

I don't have much against Rafale, F-15, Flankers, ShorNet, even KFX/KF-21, or any double engines fighters. However Indonesia simply can't afford to keep a fleet that have more than one double engine fighters. Single, economics dependable lighter fighters must make the rest of the fleet. This is just realities base on what budget capabilities.

Unless they are still only thinking on having nice capable fleet, that have difficulties to be operational effectively. The kind that good only for occasional parade and annual exercise, but not operational on day to day conditions.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Yep. Upgrade the existing F-16s to V, perhaps add some more, & supplement them with TA-50 or maybe FA-50. Indonesia has very few aircraft considering its size. A few high-end aircraft can't cover the country.

I think it also needs more maritime surveillance aircraft.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This French media quoting local sources on Rafale deals. Nothing that's hasn't been talk in local media. Even that Twitter guy also made an article in CNBC Indonesia about this deal and Fincantieri ones.

I put this as seems it add two additional thing that local media has not mentioned:
  1. Financing packages will be similar with what Egypt got, with soft loan on 80% foreign financing and 20% buyers own fund.
  2. US still try to counter the deal with more attractive packages for F-16V.
Prabowo's MinDef already known to ask for F-15EX. Jokowi's 'minister of everything' Luhut also during his talk in Washington lobby for F-15EX. However with LM got permission from Washington to give more attractive packages of F-16V, I got impression that raise my own speculation on two thing:
1. US see Indonesia does not have enough financial resources to support F-15EX after Rafale deals,
2. They see there's still support for F-16V within Indonesian defense establishment.

Anyway this financing packages hinting is for me one of the thing that the most important for this deals to be effective.

Politically the financing packages should not provide more burden to the state budget. Means the annual instalment has to be covered by defense budget annual allotment. This has been put by several Parliament members in media.

Also as I have mentioned on previous postings in Indonesian threads, they have to be structure as not to give high increment toward Indonesian Sovereign debt ratio.

That's the tricky parts that I have not seen settled yet. After all those contracts are still technical contract that need resolve financing matter before can be effective.

Add:
Don't get me wrong, eventough I'm supporters for F-16 in Indonesian fleet, I know the 'ego' in Indonesian defense circle already aim for F-15. Their logic seems simple; if US don't want us to get more Flankers, then give us Eagles.

So if somehow they manage to get 8-12 F-15E types, with the budget that being prepared for previous 10-12 Su-35, they will go for it. Maintenance and support will be secondary. The idea for simply getting same class of Fighters with Flankers still dominate the 'ego' of senior defense planners.

All of this back to financing quota that can be allowed by 'Finance' people. If the financing line still available for F-15, they will go for it. The idea for F-15 equiped fleet has been there for sometime. When US didn't give F-15 before, they go with Flankers. Now they seems see the opportunity to get F-15 from US as compensation dropping Flankers. Thus all back to what money that available, not what the most efficient ways to maintain a fleet.

That's why I said on my previous post, the only chance to counter those 'ego' is the 'sanity' check from the 'finance' people. My hope is for the 'finance' people sanity check can prevail. TNI have good defense planners that can 'anchor' themselves toward reality of efficient support. Too bad, most of them are not senior enough yet.
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
Does anybody in the Indonesian military and government understand the concept of a selection process?

It didn't seem that long ago that Indonesia was teaming up with South Korea on the KF-21 fighter program. Then they were negotiating with Russia on the SU-35, then second hand Typhoons from Austria, the F-16V from the US and now the Rafale or maybe the F-15EX .

By the way from what I have read the F-16V seems the most sensible offer which will pretty much guarantee that it won't happen.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Does anybody in the Indonesian military and government understand the concept of a selection process?
I believe they know very well. However whether they know and they implement is another matter.
Let me summarize the selection so far.

By end of previous admin, it's been decided there'll be more F-16 needed and there's a need for F-5 replacement. The F-16 needed as additional from the existing two squadron (from 90's procurement plus additional upgrade ex USAF ones). It's also talk on replacement for Hawk 200 LIFT/LCA.

First term of current administration that when everything going sideways. The plan F-5 replacement supposedly going to Su-35, and additional two sq of F-16 being selected by Indonesian AF on technical matter with F-16V. However the process going round and round for several matters, but most importantly due to incompetent first term MinDef process.

Then in this second term, they begin with assessment of Su-35 and F-16V. Due to CAATSA (but I do believe on other matter related to some suspicion on previous term procurement process), they change Su-35 and ask for F-35 to US as compensation to drop it. US seems counter over with offering F-18 Shornet of F-15E. Indonesia then ask for F-15EX.

As for F-16V, their assessment ask for double engine class and come out with Eurofighter and Rafale. The talk with Austria on second hand Eurofighter are part of triangle discussion with Airbus, Indonesian MinDef and Austria. The Austrian fighters being discussed as part of combo new and used Eurofighter deal.

However seems after their internal assessment, one reason to another, they prefer Rafale rather than Eurofighter. Some sources told this related to Indonesian Administration preference on dealing with French rather has to talk with consortium of Nation's on Eurofighter deal.

In meantime US still fight for F-16V and doing another round of Lobby. The 'air cosmos' link in my previous post shown that French team are very concern on this. This in my opinion because they know how influential US lobby in Indonesia. Dasault already lost twice in the 80's during fighters process between Mirage 2000 vs F-16A/B in 80's and in 70's when F-5 beat Mirage III. So they have justifiable concerned with power of US Lobby.

Even if French Defense Minister Parly and her counterpart Prabowo already sign preliminary contract, it's still many conditions precedent need to be agreed upon in details before the contract can be effective.

Whether F-16V still can cut Rafale as LM done that in 80's against Dasault, or Indonesian MinDef decided to drop F-15E with F-16V packages (more likely due to cost-budget consideration) both still can happen.

So they know how to do proper assessment on fighters capabilities and supporting assessment. Whether those assessment (doing mostly by Mid Level officers) will be chosen by the Senior high ranking brass and MinDef, is another matter.

The latest part involved Political consideration, Financial Schemes Consideration, and related packages that can involved Trade, Investment on tech access, and Political 'Ego'. That's in the area where technical consideration making less priority.
 
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Toptob

Active Member
Yep. Upgrade the existing F-16s to V, perhaps add some more, & supplement them with TA-50 or maybe FA-50. Indonesia has very few aircraft considering its size. A few high-end aircraft can't cover the country.

I think it also needs more maritime surveillance aircraft.
Those airframes are getting pretty old now. Does it still make sense to upgrade 30 something year old aircraft to that extent? How many times can you zero out those airframes? There has to be a point where fatigue is going to catch up with them.

I believe they know very well. However whether they know and they implement is another matter.
Let me summarize the selection so far.

By end of previous admin, it's been decided there'll be more F-16 needed and there's a need for F-5 replacement. The F-16 needed as additional from the existing two squadron (from 90's procurement plus additional upgrade ex USAF ones). It's also talk on replacement for Hawk 200 LIFT/LCA.

First term of current administration that when everything going sideways. The plan F-5 replacement supposedly going to Su-35, and additional two sq of F-16 being selected by Indonesian AF on technical matter with F-16V. However the process going round and round for several matters, but most importantly due to incompetent first term MinDef process.

Then in this second term, they begin with assessment of Su-35 and F-16V. Due to CAATSA (but I do believe on other matter related to some suspicion on previous term procurement process), they change Su-35 and ask for F-35 to US as compensation to drop it. US seems counter over with offering F-18 Shornet of F-15E. Indonesia then ask for F-15EX.

As for F-16V, their assessment ask for double engine class and come out with Eurofighter and Rafale. The talk with Austria on second hand Eurofighter are part of triangle discussion with Airbus, Indonesian MinDef and Austria. The Austrian fighters being discussed as part of combo new and used Eurofighter deal.

However seems after their internal assessment, one reason to another, they prefer Rafale rather than Eurofighter. Some sources told this related to Indonesian Administration preference on dealing with French rather has to talk with consortium of Nation's on Eurofighter deal.

In meantime US still fight for F-16V and doing another round of Lobby. The 'air cosmos' link in my previous post shown that French team are very concern on this. This in my opinion because they know how influential US lobby in Indonesia. Dasault already lost twice in the 80's during fighters process between Mirage 2000 vs F-16A/B in 80's and in 70's when F-5 beat Mirage III. So they have justifiable concerned with power of US Lobby.

Even if French Defense Minister Parly and her counterpart Prabowo already sign preliminary contract, it's still many conditions precedent need to be agreed upon in details before the contract can be effective.

Whether F-16V still can cut Rafale as LM done that in 80's against Dasault, or Indonesian MinDef decided to drop F-15E with F-16V packages (more likely due to cost-budget consideration) both still can happen.

So they know how to do proper assessment on fighters capabilities and supporting assessment. Whether those assessment (doing mostly by Mid Level officers) will be chosen by the Senior high ranking brass and MinDef, is another matter.

The latest part involved Political consideration, Financial Schemes Consideration, and related packages that can involved Trade, Investment on tech access, and Political 'Ego'. That's in the area where technical consideration making less priority.
On the F-15EX, I can see the US "steering" away from such a purchase to protect the Indonesian defense wallet. But it seems more likely to me that they have no intention to sell them to Indonesia at all and this is a way to let them down without hurting feelings. Why do I think this? Because the F-15EX will be a top of the line front line aircraft for the USAF and Indonesia is not a top of the line kind of friend with the US, unlike say Japan which is a very close ally or Saudi Arabia which is a very rich ally, Indonesia is neither. I've always seen the whole F-15EX thing as a feather that someone on the Indonesian side wanted in their cap, rather than something that was ever seriously considered from the US side. Also because strategically it makes absolutely no sense to put so much information on a high tier asset out in the world for selling a paltry 12 airframes, I see no up side for the US in that deal.

The SU-35 is something that the TNI AU could buy, but it would be just as much of a disaster as their current Sukhoi's are. Are they really "dropping" the SU-35 deal and do they need to be compensated for this? I believe what you're saying @Ananda, and I believe that Indonesian negotiators may have put it that way to the Americans. But if I was on the American side I would've laughed in your face. I would say "go ahead buy your Flankers"! Say goodbye to your ToT and useful offsets and get ready for availability problems and shit support...

As I see it, the Rafale is the best option for the TNI AU as it stands. There's a lot of industrial relations with France already and Indonesia's a proven customer for the French. And as @Ananda alluded to, France is a one stop shop for defense procurement. Unlike with the Typhoon, France sells the Rafale with all the bells and whistles. You can get a decent complement of modern weaponry without having to shop around, and without having to deal with for example Germany who has more scruples about whom they sell weapons to.

Ultimately what reading @Ananda and @Sandhi Yudha 's replies have taught me is that defense procurement in Indonesia suffers from similar kind of problems that can also be seen in countries like Malaysia, Thailand and India. First is a bureaucratic system that is too large and too politicized and (dare I say) too susceptible to corruption. Which makes procurement more a contest between bureaucrats and politicians for recognition, feathers in caps, political and more dubious gains, in stead of a process that serves to provide the military with the best equipment that they can afford.

This also means as @Ananda describes above that every new clique that holds the reigns needs to have new plans with their name on it that satisfies their own members. Pats the right people on the back and favors the people that need to be favored for this particular club of people to maintain their power. In these sorts of environments you end up with an air force that operates a bunch of different types but not enough of any one type to really make sense in the real world.

Not to be down on the TNI AU or anything, but it won't get better until they realize a number of things.
1. TNI AU should operate politically on behalf of the TNI AU. There should be no room for individual interests and the service should stand as one, so that at least within the organization the noses are pointed in the same direction.
2. The TNI AU should establish a long term vision and stick to this vision across different political administrations.
3. The TNI AU should fight on the political playing field to realize the vision as they have established it. And (I know this is difficult) they should not accept all kind of adventures pushed onto them from the outside.

What does this mean realistically? It's simple, when some bureaucrat is promised a new villa with an order of Osprey's and starts making waves in the media they should say "NO! This is the plan and that is not part of it".

I understand that most people in defense would gladly accept any materiel they can get their hands on because politicians are stingy and defense is unpopular at the best of times. But at some point we need to think about what's best for the organization in the long run.
 
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