Indonesian Aero News

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
I got this 2019 study from TNI-AU site sometimes ago. Just for a reading on shown TNI-AU effort for standardizing their assets. The studies talk more on how to modified all L-100 civilian grade engine into C-130H military specs engine.

This for me shown TNI-AU technically knows well how important to standardizing and reduction of logistical foot prints. They already learn that from many studies they got from other Air Force, and Industry consultants. At the time of this study publish in 2019, the C-130 inventory in TNI-AU are 16 C-130H/HS (including ex RAAF), 7 C-130B (including one Tanker), and 4 L-100. There're 5 C-130B being upgrade to H standard, and this study talk about upgrading 3 L-100 to H standard including modified TNI-AU substantial L-100 engine block to H engine standard.

I put this on the threads just to shown, the TNI-AU multiple diversified inventory is due to Political decision from various Administration so far (especially after Soeharto). Left alone, the present TNI-AU technical teams seems know well the importance of standardize their inventory.

Perhaps this's why LM still shown some confidence that F-16V will get the order. Seems they know the support for more F-16 within TNI-AU still there. For me this's shown that if MinDef got the budget for their 'fancier' fighters. Then choose just either one of Rafale, F-15EX, or KF-21. Choose one of that, and let the backbone of TNI-AU fleet handle by F-16 family. Sell the Flankers if necessary. It's not the matters of getting deterrence factor (like many TNI brass talking), but getting efficient and effective Air Force.

Perhaps because the Transport fleet high utilisation, that TNI brass agree for the standardizing move. However why they still want to entertain this 'diversified' strategy for the Fighters fleet is beyond me.

Hopefully with the 'Finance' people now demand them to make more detail planning including life time sustainment cycle cost, more effort for standardizing can be achieve.

Whether you have commercial fleet or military fleet, the idea still the same. It's inefficient to have multiple types in your fleet. Multiple types only benefit the 'insiders' for multiple jobs they can get.
IPTN is developing an amphibious version of the N219 at the moment, and Indonesia is interested in flying boats like the Beriev Be-200 or Canadair CL-415 for years.

So, if the USA is planning to continue with the development of an amphibious version of the MC-130J, maybe it will be more suitable for Indonesia than a Be-200 or CL-415.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
IPTN is developing an amphibious version of the N219 at the moment, and Indonesia is interested in flying boats like the Beriev Be-200 or Canadair CL-415 for years.

So, if the USA is planning to continue with the development of an amphibious version of the MC-130J, maybe it will be more suitable for Indonesia than a Be-200 or CL-415.
That's too far in the future. For the immediate future Indonesia is buying CL-415 and CL-515. This is likely going to be delayed due to the pandemy but I don't believe it's going to be cancelled. The MinDef wants it and politically a firefighting plane is an easy sell.

Now, if we are talking sometime in the 2031-2040, that's different. The Armed Forces' need for cargo aircraft will continue to increase and amphibious capability will be seen as a plus. But doesn't making an aircraft amphibious increase both the initial cost and the operational cost? If the cost increase is too high I think despite initial interest the Air Force will eventually stick to standard C-130J. Amphibious aircraft is one of those "nice to have but not critical" thing.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Frankly speaking I'm bit thorn whether to put it on Indonesian Aero thread, or on Chinese Geopolitical thread. The article talk on Indonesian Space Agency LAPAN build two stages rocketsonde or Sounding Rocket with the help from China.

However it's also mentioned that part of the agreement, Indonesia will let China Telemetry and Tracking Control ships using Indonesia tropical waters for their purpose on handling their satellites. Basically Indonesia help China to control their equivalent of GPS satellites.

For me it shown how far the China diplomacy for their advancement on Space control. No problem to help Indonesia for their ambition to be able to build their own Satellite Launching Rocket (as that LAPAN aim), it will not going to be China competitors right away.

In fact LAPAN is also looking for potential Foreign partner in their plan Space Terminal in Biak. Could that partner be China too ?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

I don't want to comment much on this article, as so far when I saw either Bapenas Green Book and Blue Book (Green book talk about present year foreign financing plan, while Blue Book talk about foreign financing plan from whole term), both didn't mention any defense procurement for military combat assets.

Below the Green Book 2021 example, on Ministry of Defense foreign financing procurement it only talk about procurement related to TNI medical Projects. This already talk since last year as TNI being instructed to use some of their budget to support medical emergency procurement related to COVID medical support. That includes getting more respirators and building more ICU units in military hospitals.

Still I'm bit 'suspicious' why no mention at all on military combat assets procurement with foreign financing. I know from my talk with Bapenas and 'Finance' People they have done many sessions with MinDef on that matter. I suspect this already been taking over by President office. Thus Bapenas does not put it in their green book. So seems the decision now for combat assets procurement will be decided by Jokowi's himself.
 

Attachments

Ananda

The Bunker Group

For about a week or more, Indonesian media and online enthusiasts have been talk on a company that being created by MinDef as gateway for defense procurement deals and all related deals like tech transfer or Offset etc.

Naturally most of so called defense analysts in Indonesia mostly reacted negatively. Understandable cause the creation of MinDef own procurement company will cut many 'brokers' and Agents function (as those local analysts mostly are fronts from Agents and brokerage).

I'm bit laughing when I see one of local 'analyst' that commonly used by media as 'sources' for defense issue, ranting about how this company will be dangerous. She even ranting about how MinDef insider and some Generals questions the need for this company.

Off course the company will be dangerous, toward the business lifeline of Agents and Brokerage. Off course it can be dangerous for 'side business' of some brass. However if control, centralized gate way through this kind of company can regulate and provide more 'view' on what potentially side deals being done.

In paper, as the company own by MinDef it will also can be under jurisdiction of state audit. There're going those who will oppose any action to disrupt ongoing 'status quo' on how MinDef doing defense Procurement. However those 'insiders' need to be more regulate, and centralising defense deals can be step to do it.

Yes, it supposed being handle by MinDef 'agency' equivalent to DARPA. However that kind of agency handle official procurement points. The kind of company under MinDef can handle B to B side, while the Agency handle G to G side. The main points is to reduce bureaucracy and give more access for Auditors on controlling the deals. Centralising procurement is more beneficial than practice right now where every branches doing procurement deals and submitting separately to MinDef. Especially for Indonesian case.

As Banker, I know well especially with information from my colleagues that handle defense financing, on many 'companies' owned by the 'Agents/Brokers' coming from one Bank to another, to one Financial Institution to others armed only with 'cover note' letters from some brass. Claiming that they already got firm orders from MinDef. Thus they need bank facilities to shown their financial credibility toward government 'Finance' people. Those guys then try to convince Banks the acknowledgement from 'Finance' people only formalities.

Well it used to be like that, however it begin to change during SBY's term where the 'Finance' people got more power to scrutinized defense procurement (in fact all government procurement Projects). No wonder the 'Insiders' got more livid with 'Finance' people, and they ranting in media and online forums on that.

For me any move on providing more control toward present status quo on defense procurement, eventough not ideal yet, is better.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
In the mean time, Google Algorithm send me the link of this article:


Interesting while some so call defense Analyst/Insider ranting in Indonesian Media and online sites, of F-16 already don't have any chances to get TNI-AU deals LM on the other hand still shown persistance lobbying for F-16V. Coud they see something opening ? Afterall they are quite familiar with Indonesian defense bureacracies.

For me, just as I have put several times in Indonesian threads. Despite what some 'Insiders' campaign in media and online sites, don't write out LM or DSME yet. Both can still provide attractive packages for F-16V and DSME 1400. More importantly as 'Finance' people shown considerable 'concern' on Life Time sustainment cost, operating more "advance" version of existing assets will provide substantial savings in sustainment cost.


Anyhow, as usual in Indonesia too many rumours then counter by more rumours. This USD 120+ bio foreign financing that's been talk on Indonesian threads before, got so much attention by media now days.

They better explain to the public how they are going to book that kind of amount foreign financing. Is it step by step divide in several terms as part of multiyears financing, or what ? It will be interesting development to see how they are going to handle this potential 'hot' political issue.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
In the mean time, Google Algorithm send me the link of this article:


Interesting while some so call defense Analyst/Insider ranting in Indonesian Media and online sites, of F-16 already don't have any chances to get TNI-AU deals LM on the other hand still shown persistance lobbying for F-16V. Coud they see something opening ? Afterall they are quite familiar with Indonesian defense bureacracies.

For me, just as I have put several times in Indonesian threads. Despite what some 'Insiders' campaign in media and online sites, don't write out LM or DSME yet. Both can still provide attractive packages for F-16V and DSME 1400. More importantly as 'Finance' people shown considerable 'concern' on Life Time sustainment cost, operating more "advance" version of existing assets will provide substantial savings in sustainment cost.
The Oracle on Twitter is probably also one of those 'experts/insiders'...because he also said there is no hope in the short term for the F-16V.

Anyway, the Indonesian government has to make a decision fast, because OPM is already in the posession of the F-16V Block 72!
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Oracle on Twitter is probably also one of those 'experts/insiders'...because he also said there is no hope in the short term for the F-16V
He's as usual have inclination on Europe originated assets. He also tend to give opinion in his Twitter or media (that want to put his article) of Europe based creditors capabilities for attractive financing packages. Well actually Europe based creditors in many Defense Financing deals Internationally, has been beaten by US EXIM bank as main US Government Creditors arms on defense contracts.

We still don't know how far US will counter Euro move whether Airbus or Dasault on this round of Procurement Projects. Perhaps they're waiting how serious this administration on willingness to provide financial commitment. So far in Transport, they manage to hold Airbus lobbyist for A400M.
 

Arji

Member
I read some more article regarding that plan for loan, and it seems Ananda is right. It's soft loans, planned to be paid over 28 years with interest less than 1%.

Related Article

So, how does this thing work? So does the government has the freedom to ask loan? AFAIK, the parliament controls the debt ceiling, so I assume that as long as the debt still below the ceilings, the govt can request for loans without parliament scrutiny, right? Does the parliament also need to scrutinize where the loan will be spent as well?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
how does this thing work? So does the government has the freedom to ask loan? AFAIK, the parliament controls the debt ceiling, so I assume that as long as the debt still below the ceilings, the govt can request for loans without parliament scrutiny, right?
The debt ceiling has to be discussed by Parliament. Also each Parliament commitee like defense Commitee will supervise the plan usage of each section of government under their jurisdiction. So Defense will be under Parliament commitee one.

However the most important thing is how the disbursement schedulle will be. Cause that will be the one that going to directly influence Indonesian Sovereign Book.

There's image circulate on Indonesian online forums and media on how MinDef plan to utilise USD 124 bio foreign line (I don't put it in here, cause it can be seen in Indonesian defense enthusiast blog online or media already). The plan talk for USD 79+bio for procurement, USD 13+ bio for interest cost and the rest for asset sustainment cost. In paper seems it is proper utilisation. Still the timing of disbursement has not being shown officialy.

The Parliament tell the media they are going to discuss all the plan financing package with the administration soon. This already become quite 'hot' topic, considering under present condition MinDef talk for 25+ years tenure on huge financing. If does not handle carefully it can back fire politically to the administration.

I suspect there will be annual disbursement schedulle for that USD 124 bio line (if the amount being agree upon). Base on the usage plan that I've mention before, actually what they need to disburse during this term period not USD 124 bio but USD 79+bio of procurement cost. We're talking around average USD 20 bio per year until 2024. I've make calculation before, that USD 20 bio annual foreign financing cost (with at least Medium Term tenure) in paper calculation still capable to be service by annual defense budget (with assumption of annual Defense budget of USD 9-12 bio in future). However it will be stretching if suddenly there're downward turn on future defense budget.

The cost of interest will be minimal during this administration term. I also suspect the life time sustainment cost will not kicking in much in their term. Those will be the burden of next administration. However if the Parliement already agree on that scheme, it will be commitment that next administration need to shoulder on.

Previous administration in Indonesia since Soeharto era actually already use foreign financing scheme for defense as I've mentioned on Indonesian thread (forgot where though). However this plan will strech out multi years budgeting scheme toward several next administrations in future. The scheme that used before as far as I know mostly with tenure of several years. In my opinion, the financing scheme that MinDef proposed leveraging that our economy will growth in average 5% at least for next 20 years or more.

I'm not quite sure in the claim that all financing will have 25+years tenure. Even for soft financing facilities it's streching bit far. I suspect the whole line as I mentioned before will be divided on several financing scheme, where the last ones will be hold in maturity by year 28.

Then again, let's wait until we got more information on this. Right now, most of public (even 'insiders' in MinDef and government 'Finance' people) I'm sure still talking on rough estimation. That scheme with 'soft' financing can workable, however with too many 'IF' scenario. I don't know if the Parliament and this administration willing to take all the risk.
 
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tonnyc

Well-Known Member
@Arji
The state budget is regulated under "UU no. 3 tahun 2017".

The government has the freedom to ask for a loan but that's just the freedom to ask. The parliament is the one who decides whether to approve it or not. If they don't approve it then the loan is invalid under Indonesian law and they won't pay. Naturally the seller waits until the loan is approved first before actually delivering. A loan is not a way to side step parliament's power of the purse.
(UU no. 3 tahun 2017 pasal 23 ayat 1 menyebutkan bahwa pemerintah pusat dapat memberikan/menerima pinjaman dan hibah ke/dari pemerintah asing atau lembaga asing dengan persetujuan DPR.)

Loans are usually not scrutinized on an item by item basis though technically parliament has the power to do so. Instead loans are usually approved as part of the yearly state budget and the usual midyear adjustment (APBN and APBN-P) and I believe in most cases it's routine. However, a loan of that size is politically very controversial. Had they spread the procurement out over 15 years it might pass, but not in 3 years. No, I am not talking about the payment period. I am specifically talking about getting the loan in the first place.

Indonesia's state debt is slightly over Rp6 quadrillion rupiah. This is about 39% of our GDP. The debt ceiling is 60% and this still considered to be within the safe zone. However, a $125 billion loan is Rp1.7 quadrillion rupiah. The debt would go from 6 quadrillion to 7.7 quadrillion in three years (2022-2024, because I think nothing will happen this year). That's about 30% increase in three years and will increase the debt ratio from slightly under 40% to slightly under 50%. Given that we are likely going to borrow more money for other stuff (COVID-19!), the debt increase will be higher than that.

The regular people doesn't understand how sovereign debt work nor how important defense is. All they see is holy shit 1.7 quadrillion extra debt! No party in the parliament will want to be seen as the one approving this huge debt. Well, maybe Gerindra since it's their leader's idea.

Prabowo would be better off trying to work an acquisition plan that covers up to 2034 rather than trying to force this through in the next 3 years. I got no problem with the total amount. It's the fact that he's planning on borrowing that much in a few short years that's politically impossible.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

The 'bargaining' game begin. The MinDef begin their round with Parliament on why they want 'big bang' financing for procurement this period. 'Rumours' from 'finance' people talk about MinDef make life cycle financing scheme arguments, for one of their base reasoning toward this 25+years financing scheme they proposed.

I ask them, is that long term financing scheme claim credible ? Since 25+ years financing in that amount for nation with BBB rating is bit stretch for usual market appetite. They said the MinDef come with claim that some 'Financing' source want to back them, as part of life cycle Financing contract. In sense the assets being procured with maintainance contracts for period in average of 25 years. In sense the overall tenure will consist on multiple financing scheme in sequentially. If that's what they offer then it's probable to be done, as commercially there's precedent in the market where you procured an asset with life cycle maintenance contracts to follow.

However they still has not talk the detail technicality with the potential lenders yet. Only doing preliminary calculation on how this's going to burden the book.

This's in line with what I have wrote before. The Finance people will calculate the potential financing structure, and then they will talk with potential lenders on the technical financing leverage costing payment. Therefore the progress even after high level talk with Parliament, will still take time. If the technical structure financing round doesn't meet their threshold, there's potential the scheme will be drop even after got Parliament approval.

That's why in that article above, some Parliament members want to talk with 'Finance' people to get their assessment on viability of the schemes.

For me, I got why some of the Politicians will be nervous. There's no guarantee whose going to get the next Administration tickets. There's no guarantee the present Political 'coalition' will hold in the next election. Especially with 'Political Convenient' mentality that most Indonesian parties have. They can change coalition as easy as wind blows. So the idea of next four Administration can be burden with this scheme will make many of them uncomfortable. Because nobody knows whose going to be burdened with in future.

Like I said before, taking Financing Schemes for military procurement have also been done by previous Administrations. However most of them only been done with much shorter tenure. Practically equivalent of medium term loan of five to seven years. That's most of government medium loan in Indonesia. The only 'Regime' that taking long tenure for financing armament procurement, was our first dictator Soekarno in 60's.

However it's also an example how the next Administration/Regime being burdened by that. Soeharto regime has to pay USSR loan up to early 80's when all the Sovyet made equipment already long gone. Even that Soeharto got some Western financing help, but more importantly got help from 'Oil Boom' in 70's to reduce the burden.

We still don't know what assets will be procured. We still don't know whether the life sustainment contracts can be reliable or not to maintain the operationality of assets for 25 years. We still don't know if the suppliers can also be dependable for long term support. Again to many 'IF' factor. However the most importantly whether the Indonesian Politicians are comfortable or can be trusted to commit on supporting Defense Planning that build this present time for next 25 years. After all long term planning is not what Indonesian political circles shown reliability on. Especially after Soeharto down (as so far that Dictator) like it or not are the only 'regime' in Indonesia that shown relative reliability on long term planning implementation.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

The 'bargaining' game begin. The MinDef begin their round with Parliament on why they want 'big bang' financing for procurement this period. 'Rumours' from 'finance' people talk about MinDef make life cycle financing scheme arguments, for one of their base reasoning toward this 25+years financing scheme they proposed.

I ask them, is that long term financing scheme claim credible ? Since 25+ years financing in that amount for nation with BBB rating is bit stretch for usual market appetite. They said the MinDef come with claim that some 'Financing' source want to back them, as part of life cycle Financing contract. In sense the assets being procured with maintainance contracts for period in average of 25 years. In sense the overall tenure will consist on multiple financing scheme in sequentially. If that's what they offer then it's probable to be done, as commercially there's precedent in the market where you procured an asset with life cycle maintenance contracts to follow.

However they still has not talk the detail technicality with the potential lenders yet. Only doing preliminary calculation on how this's going to burden the book.

This's in line with what I have wrote before. The Finance people will calculate the potential financing structure, and then they will talk with potential lenders on the technical financing leverage costing payment. Therefore the progress even after high level talk with Parliament, will still take time. If the technical structure financing round doesn't meet their threshold, there's potential the scheme will be drop even after got Parliament approval.

That's why in that article above, some Parliament members want to talk with 'Finance' people to get their assessment on viability of the schemes.

For me, I got why some of the Politicians will be nervous. There's no guarantee whose going to get the next Administration tickets. There's no guarantee the present Political 'coalition' will hold in the next election. Especially with 'Political Convenient' mentality that most Indonesian parties have. They can change coalition as easy as wind blows. So the idea of next four Administration can be burden with this scheme will make many of them uncomfortable. Because nobody knows whose going to be burdened with in future.

Like I said before, taking Financing Schemes for military procurement have also been done by previous Administrations. However most of them only been done with much shorter tenure. Practically equivalent of medium term loan of five to seven years. That's most of government medium loan in Indonesia. The only 'Regime' that taking long tenure for financing armament procurement, was our first dictator Soekarno in 60's.

However it's also an example how the next Administration/Regime being burdened by that. Soeharto regime has to pay USSR loan up to early 80's when all the Sovyet made equipment already long gone. Even that Soeharto got some Western financing help, but more importantly got help from 'Oil Boom' in 70's to reduce the burden.

We still don't know what assets will be procured. We still don't know whether the life sustainment contracts can be reliable or not to maintain the operationality of assets for 25 years. We still don't know if the suppliers can also be dependable for long term support. Again to many 'IF' factor. However the most importantly whether the Indonesian Politicians are comfortable or can be trusted to commit on supporting Defense Planning that build this present time for next 25 years. After all long term planning is not what Indonesian political circles shown reliability on. Especially after Soeharto down (as so far that Dictator) like it or not are the only 'regime' in Indonesia that shown relative reliability on long term planning implementation.
Large scale defence acquisitions are very complicated and full of obstacles, maybe even too complicated for the Indonesian government.

For the last years i am just afraid that in the end, until 2024, nothing will be bought and delivered which have real combat power, because even if all laws, rules and procedures are followed during the procurement process, and negotiations with foreign suppliers about technical and financial details are concluded, some politicians will create new obstacles.

I know that i am one of the most pessimistic and sceptical DT-members here, but ill be not surprised if there will be no A330 MRTTs, C-130Js, F-16Vs, KF-Xs, Rafales, MV-22Bs, frigates, submarine rescue vessels and submarines.

We are just lucky if the Elang Hitam UAV program is not cancelled and all the 6 KCR-60 patrol boats, hospital ships, minehunters, NBell 412EP, NC212i and ordered landvehicles are delivered in operational condition and completely equipped.

The most spectacular thing we can expect for the airforce to happen is that the Hawk Mk.209 'fighters' will get a life-extension/upgrade....to ensure our airforce will farted out of the sky above Laut Natuna Utara by Su-30MKKs or J-15s in less than an hour.
 
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tonnyc

Well-Known Member
In some ways potential defense procurements is hindered by Prabowo's own hang-ups and ambitions. He seems to still hold a grudge against the US. This made him reject the F-16 outright despite that it's a relatively easy purchase politically. Buy a mix of new and used F-16, pretend the used ones are freebies, upgrade the used ones, and get the US government to finance the purchase and upgrade.

His ambition to become president also made him go for all-new purchases even when a mixture of new and used made the most sense. Yes, right now used stuff is politically controversial after the loss of KRI Nanggala, but KRI Nanggala's issue is service life and maintenance. It was bought new. Buying used is fine if it has significant service life left and is maintained properly. But no, Prabowo does not want people to remember him as the guy who bought used equipment in the next election. It may affect his electability.

One hopes he can get over those.

Anyway, most likely the plan gets parceled out into several stages with only a small portion approved immediately.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
In some ways potential defense procurements is hindered by Prabowo's own hang-ups and ambitions. He seems to still hold a grudge against the US. This made him reject the F-16 outright despite that it's a relatively easy purchase politically.

...

Prabowo does not want people to remember him as the guy who bought used equipment in the next election. It may affect his electability.

One hopes he can get over those.

Anyway, most likely the plan gets parceled out into several stages with only a small portion approved immediately.
1. Love your insight on Indonesia’s ability to spend more to get less. IMO having the correct weapons procurement strategy will affect future geo-political outcomes in the Indo-Pacific. This is why Indonesia’s Minister of Defence Prabowo Subianto is the biggest obstacle to relational defence procurement and planning for Indonesia’s defence ministry. Without a functioning procurement system, no effective strategy can be executed. His refusal to buy F-16Vs should be celebrated in at least KL and Hanoi.

2. As a citizen living within ASEAN, I am grateful Prabowo is screwing up fighter procurement to the TNI AU in 2021, to ensure that Indonesia (and by implication ASEAN) has less options in negotiating with China in the 2030s. Thank goodness Singapore’s leadership has read the geo-strategic situation correctly and acted on it without expecting help from ASEAN’s leader. The acquisition of 4 F-35Bs (delivery in 2026), the future basing of a fighter squadron in Guam and increased investments in military infrastructure in Australia are part of Singapore’s larger security strategy.
(a) The Singaporean fighter training presence in Guam will begin around 2029. This will consist of a squadron of aircraft and associated personnel, and include the construction of hangars, aprons, and support facilities for the detachment footprint. The RSAF also operates at other USAF bases. The 425th Fighter Squadron currently flies 12 F-16C/Ds out of Luke AFB, Arizona; the 428th Fighter Squadron flies 10 F-15SGs from Mountain Home, Idaho; and the RSAF operates AH-64D helicopters from Silverbell Army Heliport in Marana, Arizona.​
(b) The army training facilities being built in stages in Australia will allow the SAF to train up to 14,000 personnel in Australia, for over 18 weeks a year. A key modern facility being built is the Combined Arms Air-Land Ranges (CAALRs). These will allow the Singapore Army and the RSAF to conduct brigade-level joint training by 2028 — enabling Singapore to greatly reduce its military training footprint in Taiwan.​
(c) These brigade level CAALRs facilities will greatly increase combined arms training realism for both the SABs and SIBs (that the SAF cannot easily get with the existing armour infantry training ground in India, or even the excellent MBT training grounds in Germany). The secret to the SAF combined arms division’s ability to execute — is grounded at local training at battalion level, for conventional and urban operations.​
(d) Improved combined arms training at brigade level, for conventional and urban operations, at an overseas location is an important step up for RSAF’s capability. Correct use of ISR by the RSAF is an part of pilot and WSO training. The aim is to train to provide CAS to our ground forces at these new brigade level CAALRs facilities. This is done through higher HQ use of real time AI and near real time use of city mapping technology (see the Israeli examples of air power used in an urban area at the 2021 Operation Guardian of the Walls and the 2014 Operation Protective Edge). The SAF spending:​
(i) US$66 million for 2,000 XM395 precision mortar rounds in 2016; or​
(ii) US$900+ million for missiles and bombs, to hit targets precisely and at long range is old news.​
(e) The latest trend is spending money to use a missile or loitering munition to hit a particular window, at the correct angle or dropping the 1st 100 bombs within xx minutes of each other, in support of a brigade manoeuvre plan; which means doing the dull logistics planning required to bring the correct mix of munitions and missiles for a brigade level fight in a city.​
(f) It seems likely that the SAF is interested in the Israeli developed AI software that helped the IDF create a remarkably accurate 3D map of Hamas and PIJ targets in Gaza (being sold as Fire Weaver), to augment the capabilities resident in the Hunter AFV fleet. Having relied heavily on machine learning, the Israeli military is calling Operation Guardian of the Walls the 1st AI war (See: Israel's operation against Hamas was the world's first AI war). City mapping and AI use is highly necessary for the SAF’s future brigade level urban operations.​

3. If Prabowo becomes President in the next election, his political party, Gerindra, can continue to use his tested populist divide and conquer strategy to cater to Muslim voters, while marginalising the legitimate concerns of other communities in Indonesia.
(a) This Muslim-nationalist approach to expressing Indonesia’s leadership within ASEAN will also ensure that ADMM Plus will remain toothless, instead of moving to higher levels of joint training that integrates Air Force and Navy assets of ASEAN member countries. Without CAALRs type of facilities resident in South East Asia, the level of training realism for the TNI AU will remain low. Prabowo’s approach will ensure that the TNI AU will focus on buying weapons in small lots instead of trying to improve the level of training for TNI AU fighter pilots or UAV operators.​
(b) I am glad that ADMM Plus does not have to try to meet higher end regional security challenges, in relation to the South China Sea — instead ASEAN can retain focus on what has been previously agreed at ministerial level, to keep working at increase HADR cooperation and to only address the lower end of maritime security concerns, which is the cross border movement of illegal arms, drugs, contra-brand smuggling, terrorists and piracy.​
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Hi. Is Indonesia still using or operating Super Tucano ?
Yes, TNI-AU is still using the EMB-314 Super Tucano. The EMB-314 is a quite recent acquisition.

Welcome to Defencetalk btw.
We invite you to read the list of rules of this forum, this will make your experience at Defencetalk more convenient.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The first four EMB-314/A-29 Super Tucano aircrafts were yesterday delivered to Indonesia's Air Force, TNI-AU at Halim Perdanakusuma Air Base.

Impressive promotion film
A-29 Super Tucano - Indonesia's Air Force - YouTube

Picture taken from Jakartapost
http://www.thejakartapost.com/files/images2/tucano.jpg
Information on the A-29 Super Tucano arrival was posted by Sandhi Yudha in this thread as far back as 2 Sep 2012.

Hi. Is Indonesia still using or operating Super Tucano ?
Yes, the TNI AU placed an order for 16 A-29 Super Tucanos, with the 1st four delivered in Sep 2012, but at least 1 has crashed in 2016, reducing the fleet to 15 aircraft or less.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Couple nights ago, I skim old posts in this thread. Posts that I made, and conversation that I and Sandhi made with OPSSG and other members 12 years ago. After skiming first 25 pages of this thread, I do realise on what we were talking 12-11 years ago are the only assets that TNI-AU procured and operating up until now. Without any new concrete plan that come under this administration. Like it or not this plan from Prabowo's MinDef is so far the only large plan for TNI-AU or even TNI as overall that's have bit 'grit' so far from this administration.

Don't get me wrong, Prabowo's planning on doing another 'diversification' for me just another hodge pot procurement practises that has been 'infected' Indonesia military procurement after Soeharto down. Many 'milenials' enthusiasts in social media blame Soeharto procurement practises as the 'roots' of Indonesian Military practises. However in 90's especialy early part of that decade, their plan for 60 F-16 and licensing up to 90 Hawk 200, already provide clearer guide lines plan for TNI-AU that even better then 60's Soekarno dallying with USSR during Papuan crisis with Dutch and Konfrontasi era.

It's provide 'corupt' loop hole with his children companies, however even now that practises still happen. So for the 'millenials' I just want to say; "don't kidding yourself" on thinking Soeharto era practises has gone with this 'reformasi' era. Sometimes it's getting worse.

So yes Prabowo's is part of problem. However Jokowi's also part of problem, and like I said in my previous posts the whole Indonesian Political circles (especialy with current ruling coalition) are also the problem. The whole political system are simply so far has not shown the abilities for long term concreate planning and implementations. The 'draft' plan call for close to USD 80 bio procurement planning executed within this term, but strech out for at least 25 years financing commitment.

That's a very long time commitment. Expectations that Indonesian Political circles thar can commit on something for more than 5 years is unrealistics, base on their track records. Commiting on financing program cross administrations, is hard to hold. Look at KFX, it's only close to USD 2 bio commitment for development program. We can see how this already become Political 'controversies', which for my self turn me from 'Optimistics' supporter for the program (in early this threads) to become 'Cynical' spectator on later stages. Now they are talking on getting USD 124 bio total commitment across multiple administrations in future? Are they living in Indonesia? They should now how empty long term commitment by Indonesian Political circle is so far.

My previous post shown that 'theoritically' on financial term it can be done, albeit with more detail technical financial structures adjustment. The problem is political comitment for long term planing in Indonesia. KFX fiasco already shown International Market how long term financial deals in Indonesia across administrations is hold on very 'fragile' comitment issue, even the deal actually already done by G to G. If they can agree only to USD 20 bio procurement plan for this term (as initial discussion between MinDef and Finance people), that's already a very good progress. Commiting for across administrations financing deals, well it's just too 'loose' to hold.


@OPSSG I my self has not rule out F-16V yet. LM and more importantly US has several "cards" they can play toward Indonesian Administrations or Political Establishment. As the link on my previous post (from Jakartaglobe site) or even this one, LM still doing their lobbying toward Indonesian establishment including public ones toward media. This one actually already been talk before. "You want to get F-35 in future, buy F-16V now".

I remember in 80's when Dasault already leading contender with Mirage 2000, when US doing their 'magic' and push F-16 deals. Prabowo's Euro and Middle East connection make him prefer French and Euro stuff. However US has many cards within Indonesian establishment. One of them is TNI-AU own preferences with F-16 . I do have suspect that (depending on how much funding Mindef can get), they will still add F-16 deals even Prabowo's manage to squeze Rafale. I might be wrong, but so far US eventough talking to give green lights for F-15, but still shown preferences for F-16.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

After string of LM media exposure for their F-16V cause, then Russian also doing media campaign with their Ambassador lobbying Indonesian power maker Megawati (5th President and ruling party chief) and talking for Russian commitment for Indonesian defense development. They also talk that Su-35 will always ready for Indonesia.

Now the trend are for Frenchie shown their media campaign. Well not wait too long, some local 'analyst' are already went to media for Rafale causes. We know that Twitter 'guy' already talking no chances for F-16, and suggest maintaining the fleet for future replacement. Well whose going to replace all ? Why not going to all 'French' ;)

The closer the decision need to be made, the more 'Lobby' come behind the door and out open in Media. Will it come to climax soon, or back to anticlimactic condition ? Once I said the Indonesian defense procurement are full of 'drama', question will the drama end like Indonesian soap opera, or like K drama, or Euro visions, or American day time TV show..:D
 
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