Indonesia: 'green water navy'

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Thank you for sharing.
Well, let's wait and see what will eventually happen. Hopefully it will stay with maximum two types of submarines, like Type 209 + Type 214 or Type 209 + Scorpène, and not 3 or 4 different kind of submarine classes.

|"On March 26, during an online seminar organised by a Jakarta-based consulting company, Semar Sentinel Indonesia, ...."|
That's runned by your friend, right?....
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Well, let's wait and see what will eventually happen. Hopefully it will stay with maximum two types of submarines, like Type 209 + Type 214 or Type 209 + Scorpène, and not 3 or 4 different kind of submarine classes.
For Submarine, I'm pretty sure it will end up with 209+Scorpene mostly due reality of politics and budget. Especially with Prabowo winning the election, NG and Frenchie can be expected to bag the deal. Turkiye also being considered potential supplier, considering how close lately Sultan Erdo with both Jokowi and Prabowo. However Turkiye can only be supplier if TKMS allow it, as Turkiye doesn't have their own design Submarine. NG deal so far seems in better preference then TKMS.

Seems DSME/Hanwha Ocean have better prospect become the second supplier asside NG. This talk of Tactical and Attack submarine class on that Prabowo's presentation, in my opinion more reflection on DSME first and second batch 209 1400 (as Tactical one) and NG Evolved Scorpene (as Attack one).

Screenshot_2023-06-18-16-10-02-440_com.google.android.youtube.jpgScreenshot_2023-06-18-16-09-56-316_com.google.android.youtube.jpg

Put this slide again, as lately local media commentators even those arrange by Twitter Guy (yes he's part that Semar Sentinel advocacy group), seems brush away. Prabowo so far seems still want to pursue his plan. Budget reality will determine whether it can be done all in this last Jokowi's term, or some carry on toward his own term next.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
But if they do, a fleet of 4 SIGMA 10514, 4 Iver Huitfeldts and 4 PPAs will be the most logic plan
@Sandhi Yudha about more SIGMA, just my feeling there's not enough 'attractions' for Damen lobby in MinDef and TNI-AL. Seems now Babcock and Fincantieri more likely be the player for Frigate Partners. With now Fincantieri tied up to Noahtu Shipyard, will be interesting to see what they are offering asside PPA for next round of Frigate tenders.

Just like Babcock, now Fincantieri seems already find a way to offer competing domestication packages. Something that's politically preferable. Batam private shipyards getting more slices of Naval projects outside SOE shipyard like PAL. If that 12 Frigate still put as target, perhaps next batch being divided between PAL and Noahtu, thus basically being divided between Babcock and Fincantieri.

So far sign seems shown more Arrowhead 140 derivative and perhaps PPA derivative. Well at least on current signs.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Great news....at last they made a decision to continue.
Now let's see how the progress of DSME 209 1400 batch 2. As PAL CEO talk in media, the contract is not postponed or terminated yet. Potentially can still goes ahead subject to progress and results of DSME-PAL ORE (Operational Readiness Enhancement). Basically program to remedy Batch 1 problems. Rumours say the 405 already finish the ORE, thus why it is now being use in several TNI-AL operation. 403 in trial after ORE and 404 still being under ongoing ORE program.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Indonesian MinDef FB put description on the Scorpene deal:
  • The deal consist of 2 Scorpene Evolved,
  • Include with Simulator and Training packages,
  • Logistics and materials support for 3 mission each or 1 year operation.
  • Dimensions is 71m (NG sites talk 72m, I suspect rounding up), full Li Batteries packages and armed with torpedoes and missiles.
  • The Submarine is 1800 to and 2800 submerged.
Thus by dimensions it is slightly longer then Brazilian version (which) so far consider as biggest Scorpene version. This all reflecting the talk before by Prabowo on his presentation slides of 2 Attack class Submarine (this Scorpene Evolved), which augmented by 6 Tactical class Submarine.

I still suspect that 6 Tactical Submarine is DSME 1400 209, Batch 1 (already exist) and 2 (still on postponement). Basically in my opinion Deep Water SSK and Litoral SSK configuration fleet. Prabowo's slide talk on 7 Tactical Submarine, which I suspect include in calculation the 1 remaining 209 1300 from the 80's (that's still continue being refurbished). I suspect will be maintained as training submarine.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

Few days old, this is just progress on the Coast Guard cutter that Japan will donate to Indonesia. The agreement being sign last December back when Jokowi meet Kishida. For me I found one statement of Japanese ambassador quite interesting:

Tak hanya hibahkan kapalnya, kita juga akan ada transfer teknologinya," ujar dia.
Basically he says that the deal not only on providing Ship but also Tech Transfer. It can be anything on tech transfer, from maintenance or even licensing on the design. The latter one just my speculation base on Japan effort to find local shipyard partner for potential license manufacturing of Frigate. However as seems Fincantieri and Babcock so far that got the deal, they could refocus their attention on licensing CG OPV/Cutter for Bakamla.


Naval News article on further information on the PPA deal between Fincantieri and Indonesian MinDef. The official detail is not yet published, thus what final configuration still speculated. However on financing scheme, it is being talk are being discussed for finalisation with MoF. This is the difference between this PPA deal compare to previous FREMM deal. PPA deal already much more advance not only on budget allocation (which basically switching some other projects financing to ward this project), also on the progress on financial scheme. In sense this contract already reach money trail discussion.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This is couple of years assessment, however this study from Indonesia Defense Institutions (Lemhannas) put the realism on spur of recent procurement and Local Defense Industry project. The reality that up until now Indonesia still only provide around 0.8% of its GDP toward defense. Some argue on the number cause it's not included other institutions that related to security and dual purpose projects. Still even that combine, it is still relatively small proportion compared with others in region.

The studies from Lemhannas (read rather full version from other sources) stated below 1% of GDP, TNI and MinDef will face difficulty to do regeneration of all obsolescence assets. They need at least 1.5% of GDP to keep pace regeneration with current tech and development. 2% is needed to build capabilities and capacities from present level.

Thus means the annual budget need to be increase from USD 9-10 bio range toward USD 20 bio range to keep up regeneration process of all obsolescences assets. Present 0.8% GDP on defense ,reflecting with like condition in the procurement of PPA. That need to do switching budget of at least 15-16 projects, including the long awaiting AEW Planes. Realism of not meeting abilities for complete regeneration of obsolescence assets.

Thus the TNI so far still struggling to meet all regenerations purpose on time, let alone building new capacities. On relatively term (toward other regional players) current TNI capabilities still below 60's Old Order capacity and even still not surpass 90's New Order capacity.

The progress of local defense industry (MIC) in my opinion not yet surpassing the 90's new order MIC condition, on relative term. Even in aerospace present DI just still a shadow from 90's predecessor IPTN.

This lead to realism of next stages of defense build up.


Like this plann for more Submarine after the deal of two Scorpene. It is been expected as MinDef and TNI-AL envisage 8 submarine force (9 if include old Tjakra which so far seems maintained as training Submarine). With 2 Scorpene Evolved, it is only bring to 5 submarine from current 3 DSME 1400.

Personally I'm still thinking at best they can, is to only revive Batch 2 DSME 1400. Again much due to realism of Budget. Yes they can give impression on German sub (214), or potentially Fincantieri offer of their own 212 version. However all back to availability of budget. Even using credit line, is also limited toward availability of annual budget, which being used to pay installment of those credit line.

So unless they can increase the budget toward 50% increase (bare minimum for proper regeneration), thus make USD 15 bio range and working to USD 20 bio range by end of next term. Then I don't see how they can afford more then Batch 2 DSME 1400. Well money trail talks, which is why I rather watch the sources from Finance People then those defense insiders. As in the end money talks.

Note:
USD 20 bio is actually 1.5% of current GDP. I'm not calculating 1.5% of projected next term GDP, which will be taking much more commitment from all political factions on defense. Something that I don't see happening soon. Getting toward 1.5% of current GDP in the end of next term, is already very big endeavor, not only financially, but also fiscally and political commitment.
 
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x100 XKR

New Member
What exactly is the ORE for the DSME Chang Bogo sub class? The ORE sounds like a major (or major-ish) overhaul/mod program.

Interesting move with the PPA class and grabbing 2 already built. I guess the Navy wants new hulls in the water ASAP, or is there a different motivation?

I like the write up about budget, capability expansion and GDP correlation. Why is it politically that it is not palatable, out of curiosity. Assessing geopolitical situation in the South China Sea, and emerging threats in the Taiwan strait, seems like a no brainer that better capabilities are needed. Indo does have strategic depth, but the deterrent capabilities still look minimal, even with the planned 3 sqn of Rafale. Is the current climate still favors the thinking about internal threats vs external? After all, the AF still keeps a dedicated COIN sqn.

Added:
I also read abt Thales getting a contract to update the 3 MRLF/Bung Tomo class, with the same electronics suite as the REM/Sigma 105 class? That's a done deal already and work is in progress? That would be be a good upgrade.
 
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tonnyc

Well-Known Member
I like the write up about budget, capability expansion and GDP correlation. Why is it politically that it is not palatable, out of curiosity. Assessing geopolitical situation in the South China Sea, and emerging threats in the Taiwan strait, seems like a no brainer that better capabilities are needed. Indo does have strategic depth, but the deterrent capabilities still look minimal, even with the planned 3 sqn of Rafale. Is the current climate still favors the thinking about internal threats vs external? After all, the AF still keeps a dedicated COIN sqn.
Politically any large increase to the defense budget will always be opposed by whoever lost the last election. This is short-sighted, but that's politics. The usual argument brought forth is that "what for, we aren't going to war against anyone" and "we can use the money for the people". The concept of "if you want peace, prepare for war" is not part of the Indonesian psyche and thus the public doesn't easily understand that preparation is necessary and if we wait until war comes, it's too late already. The few of us here and in other defense discussion forums are a very small minority.

Complicating the budget issue, our independence myth involves a people's war against colonialists and it's an article of faith that nobody can do that to us ever because we will kick their ass. The problem with that myth is that 1. It's untrue (at least half of the credit for our independence goes to our diplomatic corp while our makeshift army lost many many battles) and 2. it's irrelevant to a modern battlefield and 3. it's the wrong region, the South China Sea isn't the jungles and paddy fields and cities of our independence war. As such the public has an incorrect concept of what defense entails. It's why proposals for creating a 100 million people reserve gets more approval from common people than a proposal to buy ten fully equipped corvettes. Luckily, we do have some professionals and educated people who usually can prevent the more absurd proposals from getting approved by the parliament.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
What exactly is the ORE for the DSME Chang Bogo sub class?
The problem with DSME 1400 Batch 1 is not being talk in detail by TNI-AL, PAL or MinDef sources. It is very broad info which basically talk on electrical issue and battery performance. This ORE suppose to handle this. Some rumours talk about electrical consumption that's bigger then what supposedly by design. This in turn depleting battery faster then supposed to. The ORE basically rewiring and reinstalling some if not big part of electrical current usage and charging capacities of the batteries.

Again this is just rumours, base on scant info available in media. However seems the ORE work, as 405 begin shown fully operational capabilities. 403 being talk in trials after ORE, and 404 being rumours will need more work.


I guess the Navy wants new hulls in the water ASAP, or is there a different motivation?
They need hull ASAP, due to obsolescence issues on Van Speijk. Those Frigates after last refit, supposedly being withdrawn last decade. 2 of them having another refit by PAL, seems to give breathing room until 2 arrowhead derivative finish. Thus the 2 PPA need to be available ASAP to replace the other remaining Van Speijks.

As on budgetary issues, and politics within Indonesia factions in Parliament and Parties, I believe @tonnyc already explained it. Perhaps I just add, there's still political factions and medias that's still have grudges with TNI (after Soeharto era). Those factions doesn't want to have TNI with Big Budget. They can say they are understanding the need for security, but they're also that keep saying in Media and their supporters on-line chatters, giving TNI more budget only benefit those pro New Order factions.

So as tonnyc put, as I also talk before, politics in Indonesia (and in many countries) are murkies. Indonesia is not the only countries where some in Political circles have put effort to 'hold' defense requirements. After all how many in NATO commit for 2% GDP on defense ? Even after Ukrainian war.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

According to this two PPA Light+ will be reconfigure to Full version before being deliver to TNI-AL. The full version reconfiguration is actually being speculate in Indonesia too, as Fincantieri in the contract also put clause doing installation work for the PPA before being delivery. Shown the additional work by Fincantieri is part of contract.

Although still mention, so far there's no indication yet from Indonesian side, that the FREMM deal will be continue or cancel.
 

x100 XKR

New Member

According to this two PPA Light+ will be reconfigure to Full version before being deliver to TNI-AL. The full version reconfiguration is actually being speculate in Indonesia too, as Fincantieri in the contract also put clause doing installation work for the PPA before being delivery. Shown the additional work by Fincantieri is part of contract.

Although still mention, so far there's no indication yet from Indonesian side, that the FREMM deal will be continue or cancel.
The Full config calls for Teseo SSM and Sylver VLS for Aster 30. That's 2 new weapon systems that's new to the Navy, but with their 'experience' of having a wide portfolio (C802, C705, MM40, Yakhont, Atmaca - supposedly), proliferation of RCWS etc, perhaps it is not a big issue at least from their perspective.

Anyone know what the loadout would be for the Merah Putih class? I've seen model pictures, but not in high fidelity.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
The Full config calls for Teseo SSM and Sylver VLS for Aster 30. That's 2 new weapon systems that's new to the Navy, but with their 'experience' of having a wide portfolio (C802, C705, MM40, Yakhont, Atmaca - supposedly), proliferation of RCWS etc, perhaps it is not a big issue at least from their perspective.

Anyone know what the loadout would be for the Merah Putih class? I've seen model pictures, but not in high fidelity.
Not difficult to swap which SSM they will carry, maybe delivered without the Teseo and fit their preferred weapon in country, they all come in non-deck penetrating box launchers, so just a matter of integrating the chosen weapon with the CMS.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Anyone know what the loadout would be for the Merah Putih class? I've seen model pictures, but not in high fidelity.
Red-White (Merah Putih) Frigate contract is FFBNW. Thus I suspect it will take some time before the 'real' final SEWACO will be set. I also already put picture for Merah Putih diagram from PAL on weapons set, however so far it is still potential. The Euro Salesman teams still 'fighting' with Turkiye sales team behind the door and in media for final configuration.

Still signs shown both Euro/Frenchie and Turkiye weapons systems will dominate Navy and even TNI overall systems. I don't think much on future for Chinese and Russian SSM (in TNI) as they are bought in small numbers (especially Yakhont and C802), thus make them mostly like in trial basis.
 
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