That's good news for France and India - the orders will be welcome and the Rafale will be a welcome addition to their airforce - and I expect the spares and support backup will be an improvement if reports about their relationship with the Russian suppliers are accurate.
Indian Military Aviation; News, Updates & Discussions
- Thread starter Twinblade
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Whoa, what a whirlwind of events.
PAK-FA numbers cut, Modi goes to France, and the long-stalled Rafale plan is finally firmed up. All this within what, a fortnight? A few thoughts sprang to mind...
1. I don't know if this is a sign of India's procurement efficiency, or inefficiency
2. Death spiral for the PAK-FA, and consequently, possibly the FGFA? At this stage probably not, but it appears to me that it is plodding along in that direction.
PAK-FA numbers cut, Modi goes to France, and the long-stalled Rafale plan is finally firmed up. All this within what, a fortnight? A few thoughts sprang to mind...
1. I don't know if this is a sign of India's procurement efficiency, or inefficiency
2. Death spiral for the PAK-FA, and consequently, possibly the FGFA? At this stage probably not, but it appears to me that it is plodding along in that direction.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Good news for Daussault shareholders as well I assume. As for Russian support (lack of), this likely played a key part in this decision.
It's also official that the MMRCA is effectively dead, any further purchases of Rafale will occur as government-to-government purchases.
MMRCA deal: India to scrap $20 billion mega project for 126 Rafale fighter jets - The Times of India
Centre scraps $20 billion MMRCA deal for 126 Rafale jets for IAF, LCA Tejas to replace MiG-21 - IBNLive
Parrikar hints old $25bn Rafale deal dead; future purchases govt-to-govt
No indication as to how many Rafale will be purchased but reportedly not going to be as high as the original 126 outlined in the RfP. In the ibnlive link, it's reported the IAF "desperately" requires fourth generation aircraft, with 5th generation technology to be acquired in the next 10-15 years.
Their indigenous LCA has been named as the replacement for the IAFs MiG-21 as it's closer in its class.
EDIT: The current 36 order will form two squadrons with 14 single seat and 2 twin seat trainers per squadron with four airframes as part of a 'maintenance reserve'.
http://www.janes.com/article/50591/modi-announces-rafale-buy
MMRCA deal: India to scrap $20 billion mega project for 126 Rafale fighter jets - The Times of India
Centre scraps $20 billion MMRCA deal for 126 Rafale jets for IAF, LCA Tejas to replace MiG-21 - IBNLive
Parrikar hints old $25bn Rafale deal dead; future purchases govt-to-govt
No indication as to how many Rafale will be purchased but reportedly not going to be as high as the original 126 outlined in the RfP. In the ibnlive link, it's reported the IAF "desperately" requires fourth generation aircraft, with 5th generation technology to be acquired in the next 10-15 years.
Their indigenous LCA has been named as the replacement for the IAFs MiG-21 as it's closer in its class.
EDIT: The current 36 order will form two squadrons with 14 single seat and 2 twin seat trainers per squadron with four airframes as part of a 'maintenance reserve'.
http://www.janes.com/article/50591/modi-announces-rafale-buy
Now that the Indian Government has committed to acquiring Rafale, are they having cold feet about PAK FA/FGFA? If the reports of the Indians giving Russia the cold shoulder treatment are true, then maybe doubts remain that Russia can deliver the promised capabilities in the desired timeframe. More than any other defense program, Putin has staked his personal prestige on PAK FA. The recent announcement of the cutback in PAK FA orders will not have inspired confidence
Analysis: India faces crunch decision over Rafale, PAK-FA - IHS Jane's 360
Defence ministry ignores Russia's requests to discuss fighter project | Business Standard News
Analysis: India faces crunch decision over Rafale, PAK-FA - IHS Jane's 360
Defence ministry ignores Russia's requests to discuss fighter project | Business Standard News
I don't think the purchase of Rafale shows cold feet, the discussion of PAK FA cooperation was still happening both during the MMRCA process and during negotiations.
My own opinion is cold feet on PAK FA is a direct result to how negotiations have gone. Both in terms of cost, Indian involvement and timescales.
In one of the links I posted, it's mentioned how 5th gen capability is something they're working on for an end result in the next 10-15 years. So it could be a shuffling of PAK-FA off to the right, which is understandable because if they're intending to make significant investment in Rafale and bringing LCA in on a large scale.
I have no doubt that the PAK-FA will be a great aircraft. But simply put, trying to buy both of them at once is a HUGE expense because they are both capable aircraft. But it makes sense what they're doing.
They're buying the existing aircraft now to bolster the IAFs struggling squadron numbers and will probably invest in PAK-FA during the second half next decade. By then it should be existing in good numbers in the Russian Air Force and be a proven (at least technologically) aircraft.
On the flipside, if they *didn't* buy Rafale, squadron numbers will decline during the decade. They'd probably have to invest in more Su-30/upgrades anyway.
My own opinion is cold feet on PAK FA is a direct result to how negotiations have gone. Both in terms of cost, Indian involvement and timescales.
In one of the links I posted, it's mentioned how 5th gen capability is something they're working on for an end result in the next 10-15 years. So it could be a shuffling of PAK-FA off to the right, which is understandable because if they're intending to make significant investment in Rafale and bringing LCA in on a large scale.
I have no doubt that the PAK-FA will be a great aircraft. But simply put, trying to buy both of them at once is a HUGE expense because they are both capable aircraft. But it makes sense what they're doing.
They're buying the existing aircraft now to bolster the IAFs struggling squadron numbers and will probably invest in PAK-FA during the second half next decade. By then it should be existing in good numbers in the Russian Air Force and be a proven (at least technologically) aircraft.
On the flipside, if they *didn't* buy Rafale, squadron numbers will decline during the decade. They'd probably have to invest in more Su-30/upgrades anyway.
From what I've read, Egypt and India's selection of the Rafale isn't all good news for countries that are conremplating on buying it as delivery timetables will have to be altered due to the inability of Dassault to raise production levels.
As far as Malaysia goes, any decision is likely to take a few more years at least, due to falling oil prices and the fact that the military also has other gear that has long been on the shopping list. Word amongst the local industry is that BAE Systems has offered Malaysia a mix Tranche1/3 Typhoon package and can deliver a few ex-RAF Tranche 1s a few months after an order is signed.
Given the longstanding policy of diversifying its arms purchaces in order not to be too dependent on any one supplier, I doubt that India will not proceed with the PAK FA/FGFA.
According to what I've read elsewhere, apart from the fact that the IAF's fleet of MiG-21s and MiG-27s will have to be retired by 2017/18, the reason why the IAF is such in a rush to order Rafale is because amongst other things, it needs an aircraft that can perform the low level strike role. Apparently the Su-30MKI can't perform the low level strike role because the Bars radar doesn't have a terrain-following capability or weather-mapping mode and its airframe can't take the stress tolerance levels that come with terrain hugging low level flights.
There are plans to upgrade the MKI fleet into 'Super MKI' standard. The upgrades will include structural modification to enable Brahmos to be carried and an AESA to replace Bars.
No, it's not official. If you read what the Indian minister of defence said, & disregard the headlines & interpretations, you find that he not only didn't say that the MMRCA deal is dead, but made a point of saying that he hadn't said that.
What he's said is (1) praise for his boss's decision (surprise, surprise!) & his chosen procurement process, (2) criticism (justified - look at how long it's taken so far, with no contract yet) the previous process, (3) that 36 isn't all India will buy, but there will be follow-on batches & (4) carefully not committed to any numbers or any particular process (& equally, made a point of not ruling out any process) for procuring the additional Rafales. He said that local manufacture (except for the initial 36) is still under negotiation, i.e. it ain't dead yet.
It's all up in the air now. Those who say MMRCA is effectively dead may be right, but they're speculating: it's not official.
Parrikar is a politician, seems to have appropriate skills, & clearly took care with what he said, but we're receiving it through the filter of the Indian press, which is capable of jumping to solid conclusions based on almost nothing.
Remember "India is going to buy USS Kitty Hawk"? That was reported in the Indian press as a done deal, when it was totally imaginary, based on a hypothetical example, explicitly stated not to be real, given in a briefing by a junior US press officer. The lack of an official US denial was taken as confirmation, when what it actually meant was that the story was considered too ridiculous to be worth an official response - until someone asked the US Secretary of Defense directly, & he laughed at the unreality of the question before denying it.
That's how you have to read Indian press reports. Always seek out the source, & ignore all the spin & interpretation.
Now it's official, Indian defence minister states that India isn't buying any more than the current 36-strong plan either from France or built by HAL, instead preferring to put the money into Tejas.
Indian defence minister draws line at 36 Rafales - IHS Jane's 360
Replacing MiG-21/MiG-27 with Tejas seems reasonable, but what's going to make up the shortfall of ~90 Rafale?
Indian defence minister draws line at 36 Rafales - IHS Jane's 360
Makes you wonder what they plan to do, they've stated before that they needed the full 126 Rafales and that Tejas/Su-30 can't do the job, but now that's different?
Replacing MiG-21/MiG-27 with Tejas seems reasonable, but what's going to make up the shortfall of ~90 Rafale?
True
Still, it does confuse me with though about exactly what they plan to do to make up for the capability gap left by that many Rafales.
Still, it does confuse me with though about exactly what they plan to do to make up for the capability gap left by that many Rafales.
I think they'll wait and see how the Rafale goes. When they see it's availability rates and capability compared to their other types first hand (and not just marketing speak) there will be follow-on batches acquired...True
Still, it does confuse me with though about exactly what they plan to do to make up for the capability gap left by that many Rafales.
Adioz
New Member
One option to maintain Indian Air Force fighter aircraft fleet to required force levels (until FGFA is introduced into service) is buying some Mig-29Ks and Naval LCAs to cover for the depleting fleet. These aircraft can later be transferred to Indian Navy for their new aircraft carriers (Vikrant class) when the FGFA is introduced in the air force. This will temporarily hamper capability but is the best option if buying additional Rafael aircraft is unbearable for the treasury.
DAC clears two big orders
On a seperate note the Indian armed forces are finally replacing their fleet of aging light utility helicopters (HAL Cheetah and Chetak) by Ka-226 with 200 to be license produced in India. The DAC (Defence Acquisition council) also gave the go ahead to replace 59 Hawker Siddely HS 748 by 56 EADS CASA C-29.
They're not to clever in the IAF.
By the time the Indian government get the requirements changed from 3 to 1 aircraft the last will probably be gone as wellnfloorl:
IAF clears proposal to buy three C 17; Boeing says only one plane left to sell - The Economic Times
By the time the Indian government get the requirements changed from 3 to 1 aircraft the last will probably be gone as well
nfloorl:IAF clears proposal to buy three C 17; Boeing says only one plane left to sell - The Economic Times
Couldn't they extend the production run? Or would that be prohibitively expensive? I can imagine there are all kinds of obstacles like people moving on to new jobs and unexpected follow on rush orders with suppliers. But a sell is a sell right!They're not to clever in the IAF.
By the time the Indian government get the requirements changed from 3 to 1 aircraft the last will probably be gone as well
IAF clears proposal to buy three C 17; Boeing says only one plane left to sell - The Economic Times
edit: btw I read on di daily that there where more problems with the Rafale purchase deal. Where the Indians want offsets that just can't be offered for the prices they're willing to pay. What do you guys think? Is this because the French are doubtful about follow on orders. Or the Indians being greedy? I mean I can imagine how the French aren't very exited to offset all kinds of production to India for such a small run with no guarantees for follow on. And we all know how the Indians are with offsets and ToT and the like. You can't really do business in a country imo if a local entity needs to own 51% of it. I mean that's like Zimbabwe style!
Extending the production run means restarting the line - to produce two aircraft. Alternatives would have to be found or created for facilities which have been switched to other purposes or dismantled. Staff who no longer work for Boeing or its suppliers, or work on other jobs, would have to be got back, or replacements found & probably trained. And so on. It's take time & a lot of money, & all the costs would have to be recouped from those two aircraft. I don't believe India will pay for that. It would be crazily expensive.
India can buy one, or none. That's the choice. Buying a couple second hand from the USAF is probably unrealistic.
India can buy one, or none. That's the choice. Buying a couple second hand from the USAF is probably unrealistic.
wimdemeester
New Member
status of MRTT selection
For almost 3 years the IAF selected the A 330 tanker version and since then we have heard several times that the firming up of the selection was very near, upcoming any day etcetera.
But up to now nothing happened or has been made public.
Who is in the know ?
For almost 3 years the IAF selected the A 330 tanker version and since then we have heard several times that the firming up of the selection was very near, upcoming any day etcetera.
But up to now nothing happened or has been made public.
Who is in the know ?