Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Israel's economy won't handle delaying it until November so the US may need to change strategy.
Hamas-Israeli War 2023
- Thread starter koxinga
- Start date
Larry_L
Active Member
My take on what is going on. Some is speculation.
Hamas announces they have accepted a cease fire deal. People in Gaza are ecstatic. Israel was not even at the negotiations so no deal.
The US announces a token halt on some arms shipments to Israel.
Israel carefully puts pressure on Hamas in Rafah.
Hamas soft power speaks loud worldwide while terrorists hide behind hostages and civilians.
www.vox.com
Hamas announces they have accepted a cease fire deal. People in Gaza are ecstatic. Israel was not even at the negotiations so no deal.
The US announces a token halt on some arms shipments to Israel.
Israel carefully puts pressure on Hamas in Rafah.
Hamas soft power speaks loud worldwide while terrorists hide behind hostages and civilians.
Israel and Hamas aren’t that far apart in ceasefire talks. A deal will still be tough.
What we know about the latest ceasefire proposal.
www.vox.com
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
There seems to be some disagreement between the US and Israel on Rafah but as it turns out in internal Israeli public debates and something I partially believe in - it's more a Biden-Netanyahu thing than a US-Israel thing.My take on what is going on. Some is speculation.
Hamas announces they have accepted a cease fire deal. People in Gaza are ecstatic. Israel was not even at the negotiations so no deal.
The US announces a token halt on some arms shipments to Israel.
Israel carefully puts pressure on Hamas in Rafah.
Hamas soft power speaks loud worldwide while terrorists hide behind hostages and civilians.
Israel and Hamas aren’t that far apart in ceasefire talks. A deal will still be tough.
What we know about the latest ceasefire proposal.
There's the narrative that Biden thinks Netanyahu is exploiting aspects of the war for political gain, or survival, which definitely sounds like him. But I personally also believe that it's not really possible to truly conclude this war without taking over at least the Philadelphi corridor (Gaza-Egypt border) and set up a buffer zone into Gaza, to put a halt to arms smuggling from Sinai into Gaza.
There's much to speculate about here, but one thing seems pretty certain to me - Biden's decisions are actually raising Netanyahu's popularity.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
IDF now operating with (at least components of) 3 divisions in Gaza as the operation in Rafah intensifies.
There are also reports on various telegram channels of Hamas repeating their attacks on Kerem Shalom.
This is an aid terminal into Gaza. Cutting off aid to Gaza is part of Hamas's strategy.
There are also reports on various telegram channels of Hamas repeating their attacks on Kerem Shalom.
This is an aid terminal into Gaza. Cutting off aid to Gaza is part of Hamas's strategy.
Not aimed at anyone in particular.
Hamas are an Iranian backed terrorist organisation who committed a despicable attack on Israel and as a result should reap what they sow. However, that does not give Israel the right to commit a policy of unrestricted warfare against a civilian population. There have also been allegations of war crimes being committed by both sides.
There are some posts which have got personal. That is not acceptable, and everyone knows that. If you want to get personal take it elsewhere. Don't do it on here.
Politics appear to be creeping into the discussion. We all know that is against the rules.
Be polite with each other and obey the rules.
Ngatimozart.
Hamas are an Iranian backed terrorist organisation who committed a despicable attack on Israel and as a result should reap what they sow. However, that does not give Israel the right to commit a policy of unrestricted warfare against a civilian population. There have also been allegations of war crimes being committed by both sides.
There are some posts which have got personal. That is not acceptable, and everyone knows that. If you want to get personal take it elsewhere. Don't do it on here.
Politics appear to be creeping into the discussion. We all know that is against the rules.
Be polite with each other and obey the rules.
Ngatimozart.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Remember when the IDF said its investigation into the WCK found the strike coordinators thought there were Hamas terrorists in the convoy?
Well...
The WCK trucks are similar to the one seen at around 0:25 in the video. White unmarked pickup trucks, on which a logo is often glued.
I don't think I even need to mention the massive employment of perfidy in this conflict.
Well...
The WCK trucks are similar to the one seen at around 0:25 in the video. White unmarked pickup trucks, on which a logo is often glued.
I don't think I even need to mention the massive employment of perfidy in this conflict.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Just wondering what Indonesian Indomie instant noodles being blame as support to Hamas. Pro Palestine is not same with Pro Hamas, no matter some try to portrait that.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
They aren't protesting the supply of arms to Hamas, but aid to Gaza. In their worldview the Palestinians want to destroy them and shouldn't be rewarded for it. Basically FAFO in a wider sense.
Some say they're there as a show, as their political representatives are in the government serving as ministers, including ministry of defense, ministry of national security, and cabinet presence as well. The same narrative alleges they are sent by the government to show "our supporters oppose aid".
This is important because cutting off aid is more popular in Israel than just this fringe group (referred to in Israel as "religious nationalists" or "datal" in hebrew).
Another narrative is these are ordinary people that are allowed to vent, while police is ill equipped to handle such protests on a regular basis.
Fact is there are more trucks entering Gaza every day, or waiting to enter due to clogged terminals, than what is actually distributed (UNRWA's responsibility). Israel was recently requested to slow down aid shipments. All in all, these have no effect whatsoever.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
The 36th and 162nd divisions, as well as the Nahal brigade - are the ones to watch in the coming operations across Gaza and elsewhere.
The 36th and 162nd are the IDF's main breakthrough divisions and are armor-heavy.
The Nahal on the other hand is an infantry brigade uniquely equipped with fast, well armored, and modern Eitan APCs allowing them unique flexibility and capability for raids. These vehicles were used extensively for medevac, starred in one rescue op, and have been highly appreciated by everyone for the mobility they bring.
The 36th and 162nd are the IDF's main breakthrough divisions and are armor-heavy.
The Nahal on the other hand is an infantry brigade uniquely equipped with fast, well armored, and modern Eitan APCs allowing them unique flexibility and capability for raids. These vehicles were used extensively for medevac, starred in one rescue op, and have been highly appreciated by everyone for the mobility they bring.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
US pier in Gaza:
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Israeli minister of defense Yoav Gallant in a speech about the "day after" in Gaza, criticizing the government for inaction and indecision on the matter.
Yoav Gallant was heavily criticized by the coalition for that speech, meaning he's right in his assessment:
Yoav Gallant was heavily criticized by the coalition for that speech, meaning he's right in his assessment:
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IDF have a clear idea on what they want to do and achieve for Rafah in military terms. But the civilians evidently don't know exactly what they want for the "day-after".
And I have a suspicion that this vaccum / uncertainty is causing a delay in IDF's military execution.
Hence Gallant's comments might well be striking home (hence the reaction)
And I have a suspicion that this vaccum / uncertainty is causing a delay in IDF's military execution.
Hence Gallant's comments might well be striking home (hence the reaction)
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Another episode with the ICJ begins as some expect the ICJ to issue an order to halt the war in Gaza. Yet an international court is only as authoritative as it is credible.
Today the ICJ took a hit to its credibility, which it can only restore by having the newly appointed president of the ICJ recuse himself from the Israel - South Africa case.
Israeli observation aerostat system "Sky Dew" was disabled by a Hezbollah drone. Such systems were predictably not survivable beyond peacetime, however it does raise questions about Israel's ability to shoot down lower class UAS that typical missile-based VSHORAD are not optimized for.
An American aerostat was reportedly downed yesterday in eastern Syria.
This is widely seen in Israel as an attempt to blind the IDF ahead of intensifying attacks, particularly via cruise missiles.
Today the ICJ took a hit to its credibility, which it can only restore by having the newly appointed president of the ICJ recuse himself from the Israel - South Africa case.
Israeli observation aerostat system "Sky Dew" was disabled by a Hezbollah drone. Such systems were predictably not survivable beyond peacetime, however it does raise questions about Israel's ability to shoot down lower class UAS that typical missile-based VSHORAD are not optimized for.
An American aerostat was reportedly downed yesterday in eastern Syria.
This is widely seen in Israel as an attempt to blind the IDF ahead of intensifying attacks, particularly via cruise missiles.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Bodies of 3 hostages were recovered from Gaza.
www.timesofisrael.com
One is Shani Louk, confirmed dead in October as a part of her skull was found in the early days of the ground incursion.
The other two, Itzhak Gelerenter and Amit Buskila were presumed to be alive until now.
129 hostages to go.
IDF recovers bodies of hostages Itzhak Gelerenter, Amit Buskila and Shani Louk in Gaza
Army says the three escaped from rave on Oct. 7 before being murdered by Hamas terrorists, who kidnapped their bodies; Gelerenter and Buskila were presumed alive until recently
www.timesofisrael.com
One is Shani Louk, confirmed dead in October as a part of her skull was found in the early days of the ground incursion.
The other two, Itzhak Gelerenter and Amit Buskila were presumed to be alive until now.
129 hostages to go.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Gantz sets an ultimatum to Netanyahu: Stop stalling on long term strategy or I quit.
Intro on Gantz and the war cabinet:
On October 7th the government had many options, but the common denominator is a wide military action across Gaza to eradicate Hamas. So naturally that happened. But from there, there are many possibilities. Stalling and ending up with Israeli re-occupation of Gaza is arguably the worst of them all, and is naturally unpopular among Israelis. Such action would require Israel to invest 1-2 divisions at the very least, into securing Gaza. The IDF would need at least 2-3 divisions for a security belt in Lebanon. This is simply not feasible unless the IDF starts recruiting ultra orthodox and Arabs into its ranks, something which would inevitably degrade the quality of its soldiers, and subsequently of its officers.
Alternatively, a Palestinian state is also not a popular idea, especially post 7/10. Before 7/10 even Netanyahu and extremist elements like Smotrich could talk about the merits of Palestinian statehood. But today even those much farther to the left would consider endorsement of a Palestinian state a political suicide. So it would be very comfortable to dump this onto political opponents so when they get elected, there's an immediate crisis they're allegedly guilty of.
To be fair, Palestinian statehood was clearly proven to be a failed project. They are incapable of self-ruling and in need of foreign rule. But that takes diplomacy - something Netanyahu has also undermined.
Gantz laid out 6 strategic goals, for which he demands Netanyahu approve a plan of action:
As for whether Gantz will actually leave if Netanyahu refuses:
I don't know. To lead a party and be Chief of General Staff you have to have certain qualities. And yet Gantz made some pretty dubious decisions that most would call him "gullible" for. Primarily him agreeing to a unity government with Netanyahu in 2020 which Netanyahu deliberately dissolved to prevent Gantz from becoming Prime Minister.
Setting an ultimatum though, certainly puts him in a difficult position in terms of his ability to backtrack.
I'd guess a low probability of the war cabinet going through with his ultimatum, and a moderate probability of Gantz quitting if Netanyahu refuses. I certainly see some ways in which he can crawl back in.
www.timesofisrael.com
Intro on Gantz and the war cabinet:
Gantz is a former IDF chief of general staff, minister of defense, and now a key figure in Israel's opposition bloc as well as leader of a party that is consistently ranked as the biggest party in polls.
Following October 7th and the understanding that the current coalition is no more than a bunch of idiots, Netanyahu wisely decided to override the security cabinet with a new one dubbed "war cabinet".
In the war cabinet are 3 members:
Following October 7th and the understanding that the current coalition is no more than a bunch of idiots, Netanyahu wisely decided to override the security cabinet with a new one dubbed "war cabinet".
In the war cabinet are 3 members:
- Benny Gantz (National Unity).
- Yoav Gallant (Minister of Defense, Likud).
- Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister, Likud).
- Gadi Eizenkot (National Unity, former chief of general staff).
- Arie Deri (Shas, unqualified).
- Ron Dermer (independent, identified with Likud).
On October 7th the government had many options, but the common denominator is a wide military action across Gaza to eradicate Hamas. So naturally that happened. But from there, there are many possibilities. Stalling and ending up with Israeli re-occupation of Gaza is arguably the worst of them all, and is naturally unpopular among Israelis. Such action would require Israel to invest 1-2 divisions at the very least, into securing Gaza. The IDF would need at least 2-3 divisions for a security belt in Lebanon. This is simply not feasible unless the IDF starts recruiting ultra orthodox and Arabs into its ranks, something which would inevitably degrade the quality of its soldiers, and subsequently of its officers.
Alternatively, a Palestinian state is also not a popular idea, especially post 7/10. Before 7/10 even Netanyahu and extremist elements like Smotrich could talk about the merits of Palestinian statehood. But today even those much farther to the left would consider endorsement of a Palestinian state a political suicide. So it would be very comfortable to dump this onto political opponents so when they get elected, there's an immediate crisis they're allegedly guilty of.
To be fair, Palestinian statehood was clearly proven to be a failed project. They are incapable of self-ruling and in need of foreign rule. But that takes diplomacy - something Netanyahu has also undermined.
Gantz laid out 6 strategic goals, for which he demands Netanyahu approve a plan of action:
- Bring the hostages home (Netanyahu is widely suspected of stalling negotiations).
- Topple Hamas rule, demilitarize the Gaza Strip and gain Israeli security control [over Gaza].
- Alongside that Israeli security control, “create an international civilian governance mechanism for Gaza, including American, European, Arab and Palestinian elements — which will also serve as a basis for a future alternative that is not Hamas and is not [Palestinian Authority President] Abbas.”
- "Return residents of the north [who were evacuated due to Hezbollah attacks] to their homes by September 1, and rehabilitate the western Negev [adjacent to Gaza, targeted by Hamas on October 7].”
- "Advance normalization with Saudi Arabia as part of a comprehensive process to create an alliance with the free world and the West against Iran and its allies.”
- "Adopt a framework for [military/national] service under which all Israelis will serve the state and contribute to the national effort.”
As for whether Gantz will actually leave if Netanyahu refuses:
I don't know. To lead a party and be Chief of General Staff you have to have certain qualities. And yet Gantz made some pretty dubious decisions that most would call him "gullible" for. Primarily him agreeing to a unity government with Netanyahu in 2020 which Netanyahu deliberately dissolved to prevent Gantz from becoming Prime Minister.
Setting an ultimatum though, certainly puts him in a difficult position in terms of his ability to backtrack.
I'd guess a low probability of the war cabinet going through with his ultimatum, and a moderate probability of Gantz quitting if Netanyahu refuses. I certainly see some ways in which he can crawl back in.
Gantz sets June 8 deadline for PM to make postwar plan, or he’ll bolt coalition
Minister lists 6 key goals including alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza, return of hostages, Saudi normalization; Netanyahu's office: He should issue ultimatums to Hamas, not the PM
www.timesofisrael.com
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Not strong on ID-ing fleeting systems of this sort. Anyone knows if this is a LIDS or MADIS?
Anyway, that's probably the "boots on the ground" that were promised to not be there. Unfortunately the reality is the US will have to defend its pier somehow and for now it has better C-UAS capabilities than the IDF, particularly against smaller categories.
Wonder what the RoE on that C-RAM is. More often than not it's going to be pointed in the general direction of an Israeli populated area.
Anyway, that's probably the "boots on the ground" that were promised to not be there. Unfortunately the reality is the US will have to defend its pier somehow and for now it has better C-UAS capabilities than the IDF, particularly against smaller categories.
Wonder what the RoE on that C-RAM is. More often than not it's going to be pointed in the general direction of an Israeli populated area.
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