Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[koxinga]

State of war declared in Israel after attacks from Hamas

Hostages taken as Hamas launches biggest attack on Israel in years - with strikes hitting Gaza in response

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says: "We are at war and we will win," as Israel responds to Hamas's surprise attack - its biggest in years - by striking targets in Gaza.

news.sky.com

The missile attack appears to be coordinated and possibly cover for Hamas inflitration, with some reports saying 50/60 gunmen infilrated Sderot and other parts of Southern Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710545924588753343

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710513643584983508

Burning Merkeva along the border with Gaza

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710529957024104617

 

[SP_viewer]

State of war declared in Israel after attacks from Hamas

Hostages taken as Hamas launches biggest attack on Israel in years - with strikes hitting Gaza in response

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says: "We are at war and we will win," as Israel responds to Hamas's surprise attack - its biggest in years - by striking targets in Gaza.

news.sky.com

The missile attack appears to be coordinated and possibly cover for Hamas inflitration, with some reports saying 50/60 gunmen infilrated Sderot and other parts of Southern Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710545924588753343

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710513643584983508

Burning Merkeva along the border with Gaza

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710529957024104617

Sounds like Hamas is attempting to push in, reports of fighting in the towns around Gaza. I doubt this will go well for them. Absolute shame, this could damage if not destroy the support that Palestine has been slowly gaining around the world. Still too early to make decisive conclusions however.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Hamas decided to invade Israel and occupy houses and villages in Israel. What this means for both Hamas and Israel is that Israel has no room for planning, which for Hamas would be detrimental.
Israel is much more likely to commit to a ground invasion and hunt down top figures in Hamas.
Due to the time constraints, the IDF is more likely to commit to actions that may put civilians at risk, including strikes with less warning time.
As of now, no significant military action on Israel's part has been recorded.

Israel's government to convene cabinet in 1PM Israeli time.

 

[koxinga]

Sounds like Hamas is attempting to push in, reports of fighting in the towns around Gaza. I doubt this will go well for them. Absolute shame, this could damage if not destroy the support that Palestine has been slowly gaining around the world. Still too early to make decisive conclusions however.

With more Arab nations, notably Saudi considering to normalise relationships with Israel, I can't help but think this action is an attempt by Hamas and Islamic Jihad to stay relevant.

The Palestinians have not exactly been gaining support, especially in the Middle East. Even aid from Saudi was an attempt to get them to support normalisation of ties with Israel.

Saudi Arabia offers aid to Palestinian Authority in bid for Israel normalisation: Report

Saudi Arabia says aid tied to PA regaining control of territory under sway of armed Palestinian fighters, Wall Street Journal reports

www.middleeasteye.net

.

 

[Ananda]

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Whatever you call it, this is clearly Hamas achieving surprise attack. Israel always prepare themselves on this kind of thing. Thus on intelligence side, what Hamas done quite surprising.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710589542598615161

This video circulate in X (Tweet), and they've done it to that Merkava with para gliders. Look whatever tactical gain Hamas done today, it is going to be reverse by Israel Army eventually. However this is already bring reputational risk in my opinion for Israel Defense Force. It is not like Hamas are passive adversaries before.

Add:


This is claim on Hamas gain so far (on green). I'm no expert on Gaza border area, but seems they are aiming mostly to Settlements and those supposedly guarded by Israel Army garrison. Those settlers also (at least from my understanding on Isreal politics), mostly supporters of Netanyahu political factions.

So it is in my opinion move from Hamas targeting part of Right Wing constituents base. Will see if this is right move politically for Hamas.

 

[aussienscale]

Well it has hit the fan in Israel, this will not end well !!

Developing now, not sure how smart you have to be standing next to and on top of a burning tank Cook off anyone !!

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Whatever you call it, this is clearly Hamas achieving surprise attack. Israel always prepare themselves on this kind of thing. Thus on intelligence side, what Hamas done quite surprising.

True. Israeli intelligence said they were surprised by this.

Look whatever tactical gain Hamas done today, it is going to be reverse by Israel Army eventually. However this is already bring reputational risk in my opinion for Israel Defense Force. It is not like Hamas are passive adversaries before.

The average Israeli feels a mix of fury and despair, even those far from Gaza, at the government's silence and army's (perceived) inaction.

The Israeli public will want revenge, whether against Hamas, or against the government.

Israeli TV shows very 'dairy' footage, while citizens can see on the internet footage of raped Israeli women, kidnapped children in Gaza, dead soldiers etc. This is a substantial informational failure on Israel's part.

Those settlers also (at least from my understanding on Isreal politics), mostly supporters of Netanyahu political factions.

I'd refrain from calling them settlers. In the context of Israel this term carries a different connotation, i.e. those living in the West Bank without permits.

But you are correct, they are overwhelmingly pro-Netanyahu.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Just heard on the news.
Maximum alert in the EU for possible Palestinian Islamic attacks after the declarations of some leaders of the Palestinian jihad.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710634781896032615

True. Israeli intelligence said they were surprised by this

Looking on that X video, the extend of surprise attack that Hamas able to pull, really unprecedented. Especially against Israel Army.

Politically, Hamas I do see not only aim to Israel, but also against PA. In a way they want to shown to Palestinians that they can do something that PA will not going able to pull, in their wildest dream.

 

[T.C.P]

Awaiting a proper and collected list of updates from @Big_Zucchini.

I remember reading all his posts about the growing detoriation of Israel's security infrastructure, it appears thatall of that has come to roost.
But it appears that a senior IDF officials and around 50 soldiers and civillians are in Hamas custody-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710602173262840257

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710598931791462466

second largest power plant hit.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710589402282352956

dronegrenade drop on a Merkava

Palestine and Israel news today on map - Jerusalem today - Israel News today - Palestine News today - israelpalestine.liveuamap.com

Israeli-Palestine conflict in live news interactive map. Two-state solution. Capital in Jerusalem

israelpalestine.liveuamap.com

live action map

More Merkavas and IFVS and APCs captured-

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1726cj6
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/172581n

 

[koxinga]

True. Israeli intelligence said they were surprised by this.

It is early days and this is a random thought, but could this intelligence blindspot be a partially a result of a strategic fixation on Iran?

In the last few years, we kept hearing about various plots of sabotage on Iranian missile capabilities, attempting to disrupt their nuclear capabilities. Clearly a lot of resources that has been devoted to anti-Iranian operations. As for Palestinian terrorists, Israel had been used to persistent but infrequent rocket attacks, which they had assumed their Iron Dome systems would have been sufficient.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710638888958513396

Guess better to put in this thread, rather then in Israel Army thread. This is in my opinion shown this is not just aim to Israel, but also to PA and Saudi. Saudi seems being rumours going to put PA increase authorities in their bargain with Israel for normalization on diplomatic relationship.

When Saudi reach a deal with Israel, it is potentially something that the PA rival (Hamas) and Saudi rival (Iran) see as put their possition on back end of Palestian future. Surprise Attack to Israel, will give Hamas (at least their hope) initiative counter move not only toward Israel but also PA.

Well at least perhaps it is shown why Hamas agree to take this gamble. There's rumours now some in Israel political circles also watching for Hezbollah coordinate move to support Hamas. However if Hezbollah want to also play, why they are not doing it already? As now IDF already back in high allert. I suspect even Hezbollah also surprise that Hamas can pull this surprises results.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

It is early days and this is a random thought, but could this intelligence blindspot be a partially a result of a strategic fixation on Iran?

In the last few years, we kept hearing about various plots of sabotage on Iranian missile capabilities, attempting to disrupt their nuclear capabilities. Clearly a lot of resources that has been devoted to anti-Iranian operations. As for Palestinian terrorists, Israel had been used to persistent but infrequent rocket attacks, which they had assumed their Iron Dome systems would have been sufficient.

There's a complex answer to give here but the general idea is that Israeli's intelligence agencies can only grab snippets of info in terms of raw data via sneaky methods and attempt to use open source info and analysis to complete the picture. Often many layers of analysis. So it's a pretty chaotic thing. Naturally the IDF misses quite a lot of intelligence but this time the missed info was quite substantial.

We must understand that Hamas does learn and adapt, and every time Israel releases some info then Hamas can use that to learn its own vulnerabilities.
I doubt this is fixation on Iran.

Theoretically, the IDF forces on the Gaza and Lebanon borders should be ready for such surprises on multiple levels, and the intelligence corps does assess that on the D-day it will be surprised. The big question is why were Israeli forces so under-prepared on that border.
One leading theory is that significant manpower was diverted to Judea and Samaria for less important tasks, leaving Gaza vulnerable.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Awaiting a proper and collected list of updates from

I will not be doing that soon. I am mentally aching.
I will say however that Nimrod Aloni's kidnapping has been officially denied, and that the IDF Spokesperson is severely lagging behind information that's available on social media and prevents journalists from reporting their own findings.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 2: Pardon my confusion

Q: What is the end-game of Hamas/PIJ & their sponsor Iran?

1. The more I watch events unfold, the less I understand. Israel & IDF will still stand ready to fight in Gaza next week, next month & next year.

2. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant launches Operation Swords of Iron — this war begins with a well planned & executed attack on Israel. Meanwhile, the IDF is fighting to regain control of multiple parts of the country.

The average Israeli feels a mix of fury and despair, even those far from Gaza, at the government's silence and army's (perceived) inaction.

3. Hamas executed victims in very deliberate acts. That's not collateral damage. There may have been a debate before on the lengths the IDF needed to go in war. The debate is now over. This is accordingly unlike any prior round of fighting with Gaza. Any call for restraint or de-escalation will not be heeded.

The Israeli public will want revenge, whether against Hamas, or against the government.

4. I stand in solidarity with the government and people of Israel and extend my condolences for the lives lost in these attacks. I utterly condemn the attacks by Hamas terrorists on Israeli civilians.

 

[Feanor]

Awaiting a proper and collected list of updates from @Big_Zucchini.

I remember reading all his posts about the growing detoriation of Israel's security infrastructure, it appears thatall of that has come to roost.
But it appears that a senior IDF officials and around 50 soldiers and civillians are in Hamas custody-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710602173262840257

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710598931791462466

second largest power plant hit.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710589402282352956

dronegrenade drop on a Merkava

Palestine and Israel news today on map - Jerusalem today - Israel News today - Palestine News today - israelpalestine.liveuamap.com

Israeli-Palestine conflict in live news interactive map. Two-state solution. Capital in Jerusalem

israelpalestine.liveuamap.com

live action map

More Merkavas and IFVS and APCs captured-

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1726cj6
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/172581n

There's a new reality on the battlefield that we saw in Ukraine. Even the most modern tank is vulnerable to something like an FPV drone with an RPG zip-tied to it, or a quadcopter dropping grenades. This is a time when a weak player can capitalize on the changes and come out ahead. And conventional kit needs to be adapted to survive in this war. We have some signs of the direction things are heading in from the most recent Russian and Ukrainian tank adaptations. This includes roof cages, EW on individual tanks to protect from drone strikes, extreme de-centralization of assets (individual tanks, or pairs at most, anything larger becomes a target). None of this makes traditional kit irrelevant, but how it gets used has to be adapted to the realities of this battlefield. So Israel might be in trouble. On the other hand, it's Hamas. Not exactly the sharpest crayon in the box. This isn't Hezbollah or some state level actor, it's an irregular force and one with relatively limited access to many things. So in the best case scenario Israel might take some early losses but get valuable experience, adapt, and ultimately come out stronger. In the worst, they might face humiliation at the hands of a shockingly weak opponent.

For losses rybar is already listing;

5 Merkava MBTs
2 Namer APCs
10+ Humvees
12 APCs (M113s/Achzarit)
2 MRAPs

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/07/20231007174329-8cff5ef7.jpg

 

[Big_Zucchini]

There's a new reality on the battlefield that we saw in Ukraine. Even the most modern tank is vulnerable to something like an FPV drone with an RPG zip-tied to it, or a quadcopter dropping grenades. This is a time when a weak player can capitalize on the changes and come out ahead. And conventional kit needs to be adapted to survive in this war. We have some signs of the direction things are heading in from the most recent Russian and Ukrainian tank adaptations. This includes roof cages, EW on individual tanks to protect from drone strikes, extreme de-centralization of assets (individual tanks, or pairs at most, anything larger becomes a target). None of this makes traditional kit irrelevant, but how it gets used has to be adapted to the realities of this battlefield. So Israel might be in trouble. On the other hand, it's Hamas. Not exactly the sharpest crayon in the box. This isn't Hezbollah or some state level actor, it's an irregular force and one with relatively limited access to many things. So in the best case scenario Israel might take some early losses but get valuable experience, adapt, and ultimately come out stronger. In the worst, they might face humiliation at the hands of a shockingly weak opponent.

For losses rybar is already listing;

5 Merkava MBTs
2 Namer APCs
10+ Humvees
12 APCs (M113s/Achzarit)
2 MRAPs

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/07/20231007174329-8cff5ef7.jpg

There is no lack of countermeasures against drones in the IDF, at least where such capability is needed. But if none is physically around to employ them, they're good as nothing.
Either way, those AFVs are damaged but not destroyed or captured. One Merkava had its engine hit with an AT grenade (dropped from the drone) after which they took out the crewmen and likely killed or kidnapped them (after parading them). Others were found by Hamas but no damage was recorded. They can't really drive them away, and without AT weapons at hand, that are better reserved for other things, best they can do is damage external components. Meaning - they'll be back in action in a few days or weeks depending on the damage. Burnt one might need to go back to the shop.
Regarding Humvees, yeah they took off with a few of those plus at least one Wrangler.

 

[Feanor]

There is no lack of countermeasures against drones in the IDF, at least where such capability is needed. But if none is physically around to employ them, they're good as nothing.

I don't know much about the IDF so maybe you could provide some context. In the current Ukrainian War they're reaching the point where anti-drone weapons are needed at the company-platoon level. How wide-spread are anti-drone countermeasures in the IDF? I.e. at what level of the organization is it envisioned that an element would have dedicated anti-UAS capabilities?

Either way, those AFVs are damaged but not destroyed or captured. One Merkava had its engine hit with an AT grenade (dropped from the drone) after which they took out the crewmen and likely killed or kidnapped them (after parading them). Others were found by Hamas but no damage was recorded. They can't really drive them away, and without AT weapons at hand, that are better reserved for other things, best they can do is damage external components. Meaning - they'll be back in action in a few days or weeks depending on the damage. Burnt one might need to go back to the shop.
Regarding Humvees, yeah they took off with a few of those plus at least one Wrangler.

Presumably anything they captured they can burn if they try hard enough. I think it remains to be seen what the ultimate fate of the vehicles is but at least at this time they aren't available to the IDF and would qualify as losses, even if ultimately very repairable.

 

[John Fedup]

There's a complex answer to give here but the general idea is that Israeli's intelligence agencies can only grab snippets of info in terms of raw data via sneaky methods and attempt to use open source info and analysis to complete the picture. Often many layers of analysis. So it's a pretty chaotic thing. Naturally the IDF misses quite a lot of intelligence but this time the missed info was quite substantial.

We must understand that Hamas does learn and adapt, and every time Israel releases some info then Hamas can use that to learn its own vulnerabilities.
I doubt this is fixation on Iran.

Theoretically, the IDF forces on the Gaza and Lebanon borders should be ready for such surprises on multiple levels, and the intelligence corps does assess that on the D-day it will be surprised. The big question is why were Israeli forces so under-prepared on that border.
One leading theory is that significant manpower was diverted to Judea and Samaria for less important tasks, leaving Gaza vulnerable.

Is the Israeli political discord a possible reason for this intelligence failure? IMO probably not but….

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I don't know much about the IDF so maybe you could provide some context. In the current Ukrainian War they're reaching the point where anti-drone weapons are needed at the company-platoon level. How wide-spread are anti-drone countermeasures in the IDF? I.e. at what level of the organization is it envisioned that an element would have dedicated anti-UAS capabilities?

The IDF does not present such data and even then, the IDF uses an ad-hoc combat structure. Its armor, infantry, artillery, etc etc units are structured as corps-centric units, which in combat are disassembled and reassembled into combat teams.

Independence exists on the brigade and rarely even battalion levels, but the basic operating unit in the IDF is still the division, as far as I remember at least. So essentially the IDF disperses such systems among combat units on a per need basis.

What does it have? Mostly jammers, as well as some niche capabilities that may have been further developed in the form of FPVs acting as drone interceptors, whether by crashing into them, deploying nets, or other measures last seen around Gaza a few years ago.

Some soldiers also have the Dagger sight, which is a local name for the SMASH system - an FCS for a standard rifle that allows shooting at moving drones.

Some tanks are using the newest variant of the Trophy which is capable of shooting down drones on approach (not when they're directly above). This weakspot may be removed by the older and proven cooperative defense capability of Trophy but it is unknown to what extent each capability is deployed.

I do believe AFVs should have onboard jammers as well as RCWS but for now it seems the situation is quite fine.