Comac has ambitions that’s clear and as long as the CCP is happy to throw money and resources at them they have a chance however it’s still a slim chance.
Boeing is having trouble but they and Airbus are the duopoly for a reason. By the time the C939 rolls out… hopefully by the time C929 enters production Boeing will have sorted its self and they will survive.
Airbus and Boeing have well established not just production capacity but maintenance and support. That’s a killer App Comac has yet to launch. Anywhere in the world save for Russia, North Korea and Iran or the world’s worst infrastructure and economies of the third world. A Boeing or an Airbus airliner can be serviced and repaired in all but the most extreme cases. Even Embraer or Bombardier the same deal. Comac can only be fixed in the Peoples Republic of China. They don’t have that external infrastructure and that’s going to hobble them for a long while.
This said the Comac C919 are loaded with western systems which gives them a potential advantage in getting global market share. Those can be fixed or replaced inside or outside China. However their performance is generally below the efficiency level of western counterparts. This being as the Chinese choice of engines the CFM Leap 1C was less than ideal.
It is known that the Chinese have their own engine and indigenous development projects underway. CCP leaders have at various points made it clear they want independent development of high skill products from the west and many have voiced the belief that eventually political issues will lead Comac to a sanctions list likely a U.S. one. (In fact as I wrote this a notification popped up on my screen of President Biden launching Tariffs against Chinese imports.) CFM is a joint venture between an American company GE and a French Safran Aircraft Engines, Collins aerospace a division of UTC another American company makes much of the Avionics of the avionics other American companies are manufacturing fuel systems, weather radars, black boxes… Chinese media claims 40% is imported some claim more due to “Joint ventures” in China between European and American companies.
The CR929 was supposed to be a three way joint venture combining Chinese Russian and would use a lot of western technology to create the real break into the Duopoly’s realm with a 787/A330 class airliner. However That Russian relationship may now be a nightmare due to the Ukraine invasion. UAC is claimed to still be a supplier mostly in fabrication of the wings but the 929’s initial projected launch date slipped and has been pushed back farther. The R in CR929 has been tossed out and the program seems increasingly to be reducing Russian influence. A C929 with extensive Russian components would likely fall under extensive sanctions and that’s assuming that the Russian Aviation Industry can handle wartime aircraft replacement, Russian military modernization, Western systems replacement, Makeshift western aircraft repairs, attempts at selling Russian air craft both civil/military to the few countries who still buy and Supply to Comac.
The Russians clearly still hope to try and keep part of Comac’s supply chain, they wanted more Russification of Comac.
They wanted more extensive control and integration of Russian systems into CR929 so as to “sanctions proof”. Something that would likely have resulted in an aircraft only able to be sold in China, Cuba, CAR, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela and again the few countries that still maintain strong Russo relations. It basically would have made CRIAC the joint venture for the CR929 just another arm of UAC. Rather the Chinese government seems to want to farther Sinonize Comac’s with work on their own engines and avionics. Though given the “40%” Chinese media claims for the C919 it’s hard to imagine the C929 being able to fly without some degree of western engineering
The C939. It’s easy to research and even CAD a new aircraft particularly now. It’s harder to take that to market. Comac’s C929 seems an excellent choice in terms of size and class for a new aircraft. The 787/A330 class is exceptionally popular and even with the problems Boeing has had they can’t not get orders for it. Despite only entering production in 07 Boeing has built over 1,100 of the type. Making it truly earn the name Dreamliner. Airbus’s A330 and A330NEO have done excellent as well. The size and class is flexible for an international widebody airliner. High volume short range or international flights can easily be accomplished by it. Well one could point to the 777 has having far more (~600) built than the 787 it’s also been in production for a much longer period of time (17 vs 29 year)
The C939 is more of a challenge. By the time it enters service it will face the Boeing 777-X series and the A350 if not an A350 NEO. The missions of the class fall into extremely high demand low supply slot airports or large volume cargo freight. That’s very specialized. Particularly with modern civil aviation where the high volume low slot airports often have smaller airports nearby that thanks to this demand are increasingly becoming equipped to accommodate newer long range narrow body if not shorter wide body types that bypass the need for said specialized aircraft. This is what basically killed the 747 and A380 class along with the efficiency of twin engines vs quads. Since both its competitors would be by that point pair for investments Comac C939 would be starting off on the back foot. With Airbus and Boeing having exceptionally deep rooted support infrastructure in Europe, North America, and the developed countries of Asia, Middle East, places that have the business and the money for new airliners Comac’s C939 will have a high risk and likely be trying to establish in the more risky markets internationally. Africa, less developed Asian countries, Latin America. Less developed nations of the Middle East. Places with less developed economies, less infrastructure and less access for capital to spend on new aircraft with highly speculative support infrastructure. Much like its predecessor the C919 and C929 planes it’s likely to have a high degree of western import involved but how much? And if that would ease some of those logistics is iffy.
Even if you argue that China alone can support the C929 and C939 many of the same trends in development come into play. The CCP has yet to meet an infrastructure project it hasn’t fallen in love with. They are building airports on top of airports… not literally obviously. This means that the justification of high demand low supply slots may not be as prevalent in the PRC either. Potentially making the business case for the C939 more to do with ego. Ego is generally a bad thing for business. With C929 not expected to fly now until 2030. Then the C939 would be ready when? Middle of the next decade?
Farther with Newbees into the airliner industry looking to disrupt by concepts like a return to Supersonic if not hypersonic and Blended wing aircraft airliners. If these take off they might to an asteroid strike and the C939 a Dinosaur.