While the wide-body market remains strong, I don't see good things in the future of Boeing in the narrow-body segment.
The 737 is always strong with its backlog but its also the only narrow-body aircraft built by the Seattle company and no new project is to be seen soon.
Airbus in the meanwhile has the A220 family, the A320 and the new A321neo/ULR/XLR...
It takes a decade to develop a clean sheet airliner. Airbus A320 NEO and A321 XLR took about half that long but they are outgrowths from existing products. Airbus got the A220 primarily as they bought it off of Bombardier whom had done the work but couldn’t afford to maintain the product. It was already in production just slap an Airbus sticker on it. (Obviously a bit more work than that.)
Boeing isn’t in a position to do that. The 737 Max is already pushing the line of reducing returns on investments as a long long lived family pushing 60 years and there isn’t any other Airliner anywhere in the western world that could be bought out right now. The Closest being Start ups like Jet Zero. Yet that’s not even in demonstration yet.
To introduce a new airliner the manufacturer need to answer 4 questions.
- Is there interest or can interest be generated by offering a product with an advantage not available on the market? If we offer a product to a legacy customer how do we do so well maintaining support for legacy products in such a way as to convince them to keep our products on their flight lines?
- What is the status of the companies manufacturing capacity and financial position? Can we afford to allocate resources without following Bombardier or Fokker?
- What new technologies are available for manufacturing/intigration of the aircraft, control systems and plumbing? Material? How do we develop or acquire such?
- Engines?? What is coming online what advantage do they offer and how do we take advantage of them?
The answers to these questions have to be solid as they lead to a major decision that could make or break Boeing.
When you screw up the answer it can be costly. In example Airbus assumed that the A380 had a tremendous potential to Dethrone the Queen of the Skies the Boeing 747. In reality although a number of airlines wanted it not as many as they had hoped ETOPs had changed the metric sufficiently that it was the smaller Boeing 777, 767 as well as Airbus’s own A330. The Princess, Duchess and Duke of the Skies that were already reigning in Airline business models. Farther with the rise of narrow body jets from regional to international . The A380 “King of the Skies” was obsolete before it even flew. The 747-8 entered service but it wasn’t as the Queen of the Sky it was as the flying Trucker primary surviving by flying cargo.
For Boeing on Question One the trend is to fuel efficiency and that is going to demand its next aircraft being a major change from its predecessors. It needs to be significantly more fuel efficient than anything flying right now. Farther Boeing has to Square the Circle that the 737 is the Queen of Budget airlines. Now those budget airlines are not doing quite well now. So trying to get investments off them isn’t going to be easy. Farther when they do roll out they have to convince those airlines that it’s in their interest to make the change. Boeing proved flexible in the past They rapidly redeveloped the Sonic cruiser into the 787. A complete buisness model change but that was a different Boeing and it suffered a lot of turbulence.
For Boeing Question Two Is also a challenge. The Company’s liabilities are not looking great they have a number of long delayed contracts and A “797” is likely to be a challenge not seen since the 787 Which famously suffered years of delays in its first flight. Boeing is going to need a strong steady R&D budget for the program. It’s not just for the assembly but the lead up to the project. Because two pays for Three.
For Question Three Boeing is going to have to go big or go home. The 787 famously got a 20% fuel economy improvement over the 767. That’s both Impressive and underwhelming at the same time because the 787 is a whole new generation of aircraft. The A220 famously got a 25% improvement vs the 737 So if the new standard is the A220 that Boeing has to Benchmark. Thats a lot of work. New alloys require new manufacturing techniques and higher demand of composites. Yet Airbus A330 Neo vs the 787 only gives a 2-3% improvement on the 787 side. To get even better Fuel efficiency may mean moving to a Blended wing body but that’s its own can of worms as the stretch model is out due to the form factor requiring a more complex structure than just installing an add. Everything changes how the engine is mounted is different. How the passengers are seated, internal pressure even parking in an airport changes. It’s scrapping 80 years of civil aviation established concept and starting from the scratch.
Engines it’s just such a question I don’t even number it. Because the Engines are absolutely critical. They are the most expensive and high demand parts. They are also the most dramatic performance factor. Much of the modifications that have kept the 747,737,767,A320,A321,A330 flying is the engine. The whole 757 program was possible because of a very specific engine that offered the right size between the Wide body twin and the narrow body twin. Well offering widebody power. Engines have been the primary source of fuel economy improvements and range increases. And right now they are really the make or break for any next generation airliner. The choice of engines dictates so much of the design that it can make or break a design. For a next generation airliner they need a next generation engine. And right now… It is in the R&D cycle.
The options seem to be the CFM RISE technology however open fan engines have been tried before and didn’t succeed. The material science, gear box and sound issues just wasn’t there. RISE seems like it’s getting there however it seems like CFM is deeply partnered with AB and it it dictates a number of changes to the fuselage and wings of the host aircraft. However it’s said that CFM is also working on ducted jets using technology forked from the RISE project and a management shakeup in AB may have opened up the program.
RR Ultrafan 30 is a more conventional ducted turbofan. RR has been working on the Ultrafan for a while now atleast a decade and they are now looking to scale the engine into a family. With large Diameter for future larger jets but also smaller an engine could offer Boeing a NMA and 737 replacement. Mind you “smaller” is relative with the Ultrafan 30 is said to be about 90 inch’s in diameter which means it would be larger than the P&W1100G under the A320 neo wings at 81 inches in diameter. The demonstration is supposed to start on this in 2028.
These two seem the top options in the works however it’s still maturing technology. All of which seems to be targeting a decade from now.
