Effect of the massive Saudi military purchases on the region?

[NICO]

As for Leopards being purchased by SA, I really doubt it.

Such a deal would need approval by the German government. And as SA is located in a crisis region such an approval would be controversial within Germany.
Why should our gov go through this when it is Santa Barbara/Spain which gains the most of such a deal.

If on the other hand KMW would get the contract (maybe with a mix of german build Leos and kits for final assembly shipped to SA) such a deal is much more possible. KMW defenitely hasn't lost the production capabilities for new Leos and is still offering it to interested customers. Strv122s as well as the first batches of the Leopards IIE and HEL were build by KMW.

Thanks Waylander, you raise some good points. From Germany point of view, there aren't many advantages to the sale. They don't get much work out of it and it will likely create some political fallout. I thought that Germany had closed new Leopard production line and all sales have been from used German Army stocks. Just a thought, maybe Saudis have already asked for German Leopards but have been told:" no way! " but wink,wink, you can buy from Spain with components made in Germany. This rejoins what you were saying.

If they do go through with it, it is quite a massive sale. I mean, Egypt has M1s, Israel has Merkavas, same generation/capability tank but I don't think war is coming with either country. Jordan has some Challengers, Iraq will get some M1s but again war? Saudi Arabia has quite a massive tank force but it is a bit of overkill, do they still have AMX/ M60s in service? Are the Leopards replacing those if SA still have them around? I mean do you need 250 Leopards to face Yemen? Do they have tanks in Yemen, maybe some T55s?

 

[Sampanviking]

Interesting numbers. Can you source those?

Here we go

U.S. arms sales could hit $50 billion next year | Reuters

Not quite as I stated it although the figures are all there

This year arms exports expected to be $38 Billion

Next year exports predicted to be $50 Billion

The Pentagon agency, which overseas major foreign arms sales, is likely to notify Congress of a large number of arms sales over the next few months, said Wieringa, who oversees 12,995 different arms sales involving 218 countries and retires with total of $300 billion of requests still open.

 

[Feanor]

Here we go

U.S. arms sales could hit $50 billion next year | Reuters

Not quite as I stated it although the figures are all there

This year arms exports expected to be $38 Billion

Next year exports predicted to be $50 Billion

Very different from what you claimed, which was 50 billion last year. We're at 38 billion as it stands. This figure is likely to increase and notably so, but by how much remains to be seen.

 

[Eeshaan]

Egypt Orders Three Airbus Military C295 Aircraft | Air Force News at DefenseTalk

It's not just SA, but countries in the middle east in general are modernizing their military capabilities and hardware, form the old soviet era gear to new state of the art equipment.

Also, I was thinking, would these sales/negotiations with SA have occoured had Israel complied with their agreement with USA to stop building more settlements ?

Although war with Israel is unlikely, these sales will surely play a part in "convincing" Israel to go easy on it's settlement plans...

 

[Waylander]

Thanks Waylander, you raise some good points. From Germany point of view, there aren't many advantages to the sale. They don't get much work out of it and it will likely create some political fallout. I thought that Germany had closed new Leopard production line and all sales have been from used German Army stocks. Just a thought, maybe Saudis have already asked for German Leopards but have been told:" no way! " but wink,wink, you can buy from Spain with components made in Germany. This rejoins what you were saying.

If they do go through with it, it is quite a massive sale. I mean, Egypt has M1s, Israel has Merkavas, same generation/capability tank but I don't think war is coming with either country. Jordan has some Challengers, Iraq will get some M1s but again war? Saudi Arabia has quite a massive tank force but it is a bit of overkill, do they still have AMX/ M60s in service? Are the Leopards replacing those if SA still have them around? I mean do you need 250 Leopards to face Yemen? Do they have tanks in Yemen, maybe some T55s?

I doubt that Germany tries to go around possible problems by choosing Santa Barbara as the main factory. IMHO the political fallout would be the same.

And yes I expect that such a deal, if it materializes, will equip the Royal and National Guard formations as a counterweight to the Abrams fleet of the Army. The Saudi regime is not all that sure about the loyalties of the Army so they keep propping the more reliable Guard formations.

Not that they have the support units to even field all of the the Abrams tanks in a full scale shooting war...

 

[NICO]

The difficulty here for us outside observers (and within the confines of this discussion) is what does a country need to buy or what seems out of the ordinary. Which is somewhat how I understand this discussion. What can we deduct from SA acquisitions? In the case of Egypt buying 3 C295 and probably more in the long run seems to me to be appropriate. Very versatile, affordable, civilian/military use,etc...it's a good buy, I would have preferred G27J but that's OK. Now compared to Saudi Arabia recent buy, SA buy comes across as oversize even a bit impractical. I understand that countries need to re equip but this seems to go a bit beyond that.

Are they afraid of Iran invading them? Are they afraid of internal threats, where this new equipment is a way of showing SA population: "don't worry about XYZ country or don't even think about messing with the Royal family." I know this sounds a bit crazy but I agree with what I think someone else posted here that this equipment is almost better for offensive operations than defense.

Is Saudi Arabia trying to send a message to Iran, we could go on the offensive? Sounds crazy to me but never know.....

 

[NICO]

I doubt that Germany tries to go around possible problems by choosing Santa Barbara as the main factory. IMHO the political fallout would be the same.

And yes I expect that such a deal, if it materializes, will equip the Royal and National Guard formations as a counterweight to the Abrams fleet of the Army. The Saudi regime is not all that sure about the loyalties of the Army so they keep propping the more reliable Guard formations.

Not that they have the support units to even field all of the the Abrams tanks in a full scale shooting war...

Thank you. My understanding is SA royal family does trust more SA National guard better than Army. I guess it would make sense to equip them with a different tank. I also was told (rumor) that SA was never really pleased? with or had the manpower to properly maintain Abrams. US Army told SA Royal family that US would be there to provide extra manpower. Don't know if it is true or not.
We will have to wait because as you submitted this isn't signed yet, I am sure other countries will try to step in and get them to change their mind.

 

[Waylander]

Well it's a combination of several different aspects which cause these massive shopping sprees.
External chest thumping is one of them. In the ME the one with the big stick earns more respect (also by fellow Arab nations) than the one without.
Secondly they are really scared about Iran and have been for some time. And Iraq regaining strength and entering the equation doesn't make them feel safer. They think that technology is their only mean of countering the advantages in manpower and industrial capacity.

Internal distrust. The Army isn't regarded as that loyal. At least the House of Saud thinks this. It is not by mistake that no Army combat formations are located near to Rhiad. So they build up their Royal and National Guard formations in order to counter this.

They diversify their equipment because in case of war they don't want to have to rely onto one single supplier. If the US pulls the plug French and Russian support may very well don't stop and vice versa.

Add to that, that the Saudi family loves new toys and money for their personal purses that comes with them...

 

[Sampanviking]

Very different from what you claimed, which was 50 billion last year. We're at 38 billion as it stands. This figure is likely to increase and notably so, but by how much remains to be seen.

Do you want to justify using very different? Yes its $50 Billion next year predicted instead of this year and with $300 Billion still on the table. In the world of military procurement cycles hardly a quantum shift in timescale is it?. Besides (for those who wish to be pedantic) how do you account for Arms Sales? When the deal is inked? When its approved? When the goods are delivered? or when they are paid for?

Add to that, that the Saudi family loves new toys and money for their personal purses that comes with them...

There is another factor Waylander that has to be taken into account. In 2009 the US became no longer the largest oil buying customer of the Saudi's and as we all know, he who pays the piper (or pays him most) calls the tune. The need therefore to maintain influence is a matter that will weigh heavily in Washington, especially in the light of a distinct eastwards drift in the region currently led by Turkey.

 

[STURM]

Although war with Israel is unlikely, these sales will surely play a part in "convincing" Israel to go easy on it's settlement plans...

No amount of weapons sales to any Arab country will ''play a part in convincing Israel''... as the IDF is more much more capable than any Arab military and Israel's security is guaranteed by Uncle Sam. Only pressure from the U.S. will probably solve the current deadlock with regards to the continued building of settlements.

 

[Feanor]

Do you want to justify using very different? Yes its $50 Billion next year predicted instead of this year and with $300 Billion still on the table. In the world of military procurement cycles hardly a quantum shift in timescale is it?. Besides (for those who wish to be pedantic) how do you account for Arms Sales? When the deal is inked? When its approved? When the goods are delivered? or when they are paid for?

That's why for every year there are 3 numbers to look at for the big picture: the amount sold (inked) this year, the amount delivered (deliveries made this year) and the amount of total orders on the books (in a way, the backlog). 50 billion next year, and 50 billion last year is a notable difference, given current rapid growth of the defense market. Arms sales were well under 20 billion annually in the early 2000s. In 2008 it was 36 billion. Note these are the sales numbers, not deliveries.

It's a detail, but it's a significant detail. If the figures for 2009 (last year) were 50 billion that would be a huge jump from the 36 in 2008. As it stands the growth from 2008 to this year is only a couple of billion. A notable slow down. On the other hand the Saudi deal does turn things around quite bit.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

I trust you will find this sufficiently legit?

Letter from the President Regarding an Export Waiver for China | The White House

C130-J's I believe and no nothing that remarkable of themselves, hence why I was not making that big a deal over it, especially as there is no real indication that the PRC is all that interested. High Tech or Low Tech is pretty irrelevant as its still business and still good money.

LOL. Sampanviking: Epic Fail!

exports to the People's Republic of China insofar as such restrictions pertain to the C-130 cargo aircraft to be used in oil spill response operations at sea.

These are CIVIL C-130Js for disaster oil spill relief only. No military equipment onboard and just as useful for conversion to military role as any number of transport aircraft China already has. This sale is probably more to do with USG EPA action aide rather than a commercial deal. Certainly nothing military.

 

[Sampanviking]

LOL. Sampanviking: Epic Fail!



These are CIVIL C-130Js for disaster oil spill relief only. No military equipment onboard and just as useful for conversion to military role as any number of transport aircraft China already has. This sale is probably more to do with USG EPA action aide rather than a commercial deal. Certainly nothing military.

For goodness sake son, they don't go bang bang true enough, but the fact that it needs a Presidential Waiver for export makes it pretty clear that this is not just another cargo plane doesn't it? :coffee

Any how it was a side remark for illustrative purposes so lets not go pointlessly fftopic

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Any how it was a side remark for illustrative purposes so lets not go pointlessly fftopic

No it wasn't. It was central to your whole argument that:

The US appears happy at the moment to pretty well sell anything to anyone that wants to buy and has the cash to do so (slight exaggeration perhaps, but apparently getting slighter by the day). Even China has been invited to buy some hardware.

You said something that is very wrong and gave an even wronger factoid to back up your opinion. The USA does not just sell weapons to anyone, anywhy and certainly not to China “just for the cash”.

The C-130 is classified as a military plane for international aviation production controls even when built for a civil purpose. These controls are very strict and why you can’t mix builds on civil production lines you need to complete the aircraft and then pull it apart for conversion to military use. This along with the US prohibition of selling miltech to China is why a waiver was needed.

Now the honourable thing for you to do is admit the error of your opinion and apologise to AegisFC for trying to drag it out. There is nothing you can salvage ego wise here except an honourable admission of error.

 

[Sampanviking]

I am sorry, but what a load of old self righteous tosh!

You even manage to contradict yourself in the process. The C130 is a military transport - period, its sale abroad is designated as a defence export and monies from such sales are included in that category for accounting purposes.

The point about China was to illustrate that even the country that must be at the bottom of America's potential client list for its military hardware, has already been granted an "exception" which not only indicates US attitudes towards the rest of the world, but also establishes a precedent or; if you prefer, a thin edge of the wedge towards future offers of a more controversial nature.

Remember, this is no single event, or flash in the pan. but part of a process that will deepen in tandem with America's worsening economic woes. The fact that the first exception has come after just two years is indeed remarkable.

Obama is just starting a tour of Asia to "drum up business for America" as the BBC put it. What do you think this means? do you think he will be trying to sell the Asians cheap US textiles or cost efficient Call Centre outsourcing? Somewhat unlikely would you not agree. Far more likely is military hardware and other duel purpose products/technology. After all, after decades of Civil Industrial underinvestment and hollowing out, what else does the US produce that anyone else may want to actually buy?

 

[Aussie Digger]

I am sorry, but what a load of old self righteous tosh!

You even manage to contradict yourself in the process. The C130 is a military transport - period, its sale abroad is designated as a defence export and monies from such sales are included in that category for accounting purposes.

Except for the L-100...

 

[Sampanviking]

A brief headline from Obama's visit to India and no mention of t shirts or call centres

BBC News - US-India ties 'to define century'

Washington would expand co-operation on space, civil, nuclear and defence matters, he added.

It will be interesting to see the actual breakdown in value between the categories (and the overlaps), although I think I could hazard a guess.... suffice to say it has duel use and security (int & ext) written all over it.

 

[Eeshaan]

As I stated before, it's not just SA that's modernizing it's military.

Army Tactical Missile Systems T2K Unitary for Bahrain | Missiles & Bombs News at DefenseTalk

Turkey Orders More T129 Helicopters for the Land Forces Command | Army News at DefenseTalk

UAE Requests AH-64D Block III Apache Helicopters | Army News at DefenseTalk

This is not just modernization, these build-ups seem to be aimed at bringing stability to the region. By "Stability", I think it's muscle-flexing towards Iran. Although these build-ups will surely make Iran think twice about taking any hostile acton against any nation in the region, they sure won't help reduce the tensions or encourage Tehran to stop it's nuclear programme anytime soon, in my opinion...

 

[Eeshaan]

I had another question on SA's air capabilities :

Does SA operate it's own UAVs & AWACS to support it's ground & air forces ? In the case of war with Iran, does SA have the capability to use it's own AWACS & UAVs, or does it rely on USA to provide support of that kind ?
If not, then does it have plans to accuire these capabilities ?

Thanks

 

[godbody]

I had another question on SA's air capabilities :

Does SA operate it's own UAVs & AWACS to support it's ground & air forces ? In the case of war with Iran, does SA have the capability to use it's own AWACS & UAVs, or does it rely on USA to provide support of that kind ?
If not, then does it have plans to accuire these capabilities ?

Thanks

When SA the brought E-3A's it was agreed that US will provide support, shared data, and that the AWACS will only be directed towards the Persian Gulf not toward Israel that was the conditions of the sales. It don't have the plans yet because Saudis still trying to build there techincal skills. If the US leave Saudi Arabia right now they couldn't operate the E-3A. The problem with saudis they don't have citizens with techincal skills. Saudi have all the modern equipment but lacks techincal skills with it citizens to keep them going. They have the money to pay for the systems. Here a country that do more religion stuff than techincal stuff. They are working on it as we speak they have taken more step to help there citizen to get in techincal schools. In 1990 when I was in Saudi Arabia everything was being maintain by US private company and US military.