Defence of Taiwan

[Musashi_kenshin]

Declassified US document shows commitment to defend Taiwan

The US declassified a national security document on Tuesday showing its strategy for the Indo-Pacific. In it, the US shows its commitment to defend th...

en.rti.org.tw

In regards to Taiwan, the document says that the US should "Devise and implement a defense strategy capable of, but not limited to: (1) denying China sustained air and sea dominance inside the "first island chain" in a conflict; (2) defending the first-island-chain nations, including Taiwan; and (3) dominating all domains outside the first island-chain.”

It also said that the US should "Enable Taiwan to develop an effective asymmetric defense strategy and capabilities that will help ensure its security, freedom from coercion, resilience, and ability to engage China on its own terms.”

Very interesting that the document was disclosed now. It does cause a difficult situation for Biden as it means he'll find it harder to maintain strategic ambiguity, if that was his intent. Then again I wonder how far he would have been able to do so given China's increasingly aggressive behaviour. Does the CCP really care if the US only hints it might stop an attack on Taiwan?

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

PRC Military Pressure Against Taiwan Threatens Regional Peace and Stability - United States Department of State

The United States notes with concern the pattern of ongoing PRC attempts to intimidate its neighbors, including Taiwan. We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected...

www.state.gov

The United States notes with concern the pattern of ongoing PRC attempts to intimidate its neighbors, including Taiwan. We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives.

We will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security, and values in the Indo-Pacific region — and that includes deepening our ties with democratic Taiwan. The United States will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues, consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people on Taiwan. The United States maintains its longstanding commitments as outlined in the Three Communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances. We will continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability. Our commitment to Taiwan is rock-solid and contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region.

One of the Biden administration's first statements on Taiwan. I thought there were two points in particular to note. The first implies that Washington won't rush to reinstate the State Department's restrictions on official meetings and may even make more practical improvements to direct ties. The second appears to be a change from the standard State Department comments about the views of people on both sides of the Taiwan strait.

Taiwan's representative to the US, Bi-khim Hsiao, got a direct invitation to Biden's inaugaration rather than only being allowed to attend as a guest, which was the old way of including Taiwan. All of this adds up to a fairly tough opening position from Biden on Taiwan. It will be interesting to see how he follows through.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

That weird things will happen is unlikely, its just becoming more crowded around Taiwan.
Maybe its to test the US new administration.

China, US step up military activities near Taiwan

There was a noticeable uptick in the People’s Liberation Army’s typical air activity inside Taiwan’ air defense identification zone, which usually amounts to a handful of aircraft daily.

www.defensenews.com

 

[CheeZe]

That weird things will happen is unlikely, its just becoming more crowded around Taiwan.
Maybe its to test the US new administration.

More than likely. Biden was part of the Obama administration which implemented the pivot to the east move. China is likely testing to see if Biden is going to continue the Obama-era strategy since the previous administration was rather inconsistent.

 

[ngatimozart]

@OPSSG What do you think the CCP / PRC reaction would be if some countries reneged on their One China recognition policy? For example say the US and Japan retracted that recognition, or even threatened to?

 

[OPSSG]

@OPSSG What do you think the CCP / PRC reaction would be if some countries reneged on their One China recognition policy? For example say the US and Japan retracted that recognition, or even threatened to?

I don’t know for sure about the motivation to engage in such shady behaviour (to violate the second communiqué on 1 Jan 1979); but I would that any such attempt or move will reflect poorly on American or Japanese diplomats, proposing such a silly move. IMO, the key is managing China’s rise in 2030 to 2049 is to have more options for some countries — be it to cooperate or disagree with the CCP / Chinese government.

The US doesn’t agree with Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan, nor does it agree with Taipei that the ROC is an independent, sovereign state.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

China sends fighters as Palau president, U.S. diplomat visit Taiwan

TAIPEI — Ten Chinese military aircraft including fighter jets entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on Monday, as Palau’s president visited the Beijing-c…

nationalpost.com

Whipps, who took office in January, is being accompanied by the U.S. ambassador to Palau, John Hennessey-Niland, in a strong show of U.S. support for countries, particularly in the Pacific, to stick with Taiwan.

Apparently the US ambassador didn't take questions - but I guess he didn't need to. Just being there was a sign that Biden isn't going to roll-back Trump's last minute relaxation of regulations on meetings with Taiwanese officials.

At this point, does China wonder if it can split Taipei and Washington through concessions to the US, or does it just give up and assume it's in for another rocky 4 years?

 

[CheeZe]

Things are getting rather tense again in the Taiwan area.

China flanks Taiwan with military exercises in air and sea (msn.com)
Taiwan warns it will fight to 'the very last day' if attacked as China steps up its military activity nearby (msn.com)

And the USN continues to exercise its right to freedom of navigation.
U.S. warship transits Taiwan Strait amid China tensions (msn.com)

Quite honestly - I'm not sure what has caused the PRC to decide to ratchet up the tensions. Did I miss something from my COVID bunker?

As a whole, this production seems rather self-defeating. If they're trying to coax the Taiwanese into the One China camp, they're not going to achieve it by threatening them. If the goal is to intimidate them, I don't see the Taiwanese treating this any differently than previous intimidation attempts.

 

[swerve]

Xi either doesn't know the story of the sun & the north wind, or doesn't believe it. He consistently chooses bullying & intimidation over diplomacy. To him, looking strong seems to be an end, not an aim.

 

[Arji]

If the goal is to intimidate them, I don't see the Taiwanese treating this any differently than previous intimidation attempts.

From a logistical standpoint, everytime China encroach on Taiwanese airspace, the Taiwanese will have to scramble jets. They do this over and over again, not only as a way to intimidate and test their readiness, but to inflict attritional damage, racking up operational cost, jet fuel, and wear and tear of Taiwanese equipment. It's probably only a part of it, but it's multiple birds with one stone kind of deal.

And it's not just jet, this tactics probably applies to the sea portion as well.

 

[Ananda]

not just jet, this tactics probably applies to the sea portion as well.

Agree probably it is part of PRC tactics on atrition game with ROC. However playing atrition strategy also cut both ways. PLAN and PLAF on doing this will be cost them more as they are need to be in sea and air longer than ROC assets.

In paper with PRC much bigger resources they can do it longer than ROC. However just wandering can PLAN-PLAF continue doing it at similar frequencies if they are also has to prepared similar agresive patrol in SCS and in East Sea against Japan ? PRC at same time opening multiple fronts. This is one thing that I don't get on PRC way of thinking, instead focus one by one, they are opening multiple fronts of confrontation in same time. Their resources is huge, but not limitless.

 

[Arji]

This is one thing that I don't get on PRC way of thinking, instead focus one by one, they are opening multiple fronts of confrontation in same time

Probably because most of the world is still distracted by domestic issues (COVID, etc), probably because Biden is still new in office, probably because they can afford to with their positive post-Covid economic outlook... Could be all of them I suspect.

 

[ngatimozart]

Agree probably it is part of PRC tactics on atrition game with ROC. However playing atrition strategy also cut both ways. PLAN and PLAF on doing this will be cost them more as they are need to be in sea and air longer than ROC assets.

In paper with PRC much bigger resources they can do it longer than ROC. However just wandering can PLAN-PLAF continue doing it at similar frequencies if they are also has to prepared similar agresive patrol in SCS and in East Sea against Japan ? PRC at same time opening multiple fronts. This is one thing that I don't get on PRC way of thinking, instead focus one by one, they are opening multiple fronts of confrontation in same time. Their resources is huge, but not limitless.

The PRC are now starting to use gray warfare against Taiwan from the looks of it. They have been doing the same against India in the Himalayas. Its just short of all out war and if starts getting out of hand they can decrease the pressure without being defeated in battle. I wouldn't be surprised if they use it against the Japanese soon WRT the Senukaku Islands.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

From a logistical standpoint, everytime China encroach on Taiwanese airspace, the Taiwanese will have to scramble jets.

It might have been a valid tactic for a while, but the Taiwanese government said recently they're no longer scrambling every time Chinese planes fly towards Taiwan - instead they're now tracking them with air-defence batteries. That rather implies they know what Beijing's game is and are refusing to play.

So there has to be a different reason these flights are being continued.

 

[weaponwh]

As a whole, this production seems rather self-defeating. If they're trying to coax the Taiwanese into the One China camp, they're not going to achieve it by threatening them. If the goal is to intimidate them, I don't see the Taiwanese treating this any differently than previous intimidation attempts.

well tension always been high when DPP in charge(or whoever doesn't recognize 92 consensus), US & china relation is not good either in recent years. then there is the US ambassador visit + join coast guard between US & taiwan, which china likely gonna respond. Usually they respond with some military exercise near taiwan after some join venture between US & taiwan or DPP election that china is not happy with. think 96. also china military on the raise over the decades, so they might just start doing these exercise as regular event now. Now if KMT get elected again and recognize 92 consensus etc, the tension should get lower in the region.

 

[OPSSG]

well tension always been high when DPP in charge(or whoever doesn't recognize 92 consensus), US & china relation is not good either in recent years.

1. In Taiwanese domestic politics, parliamentary brawls in the legislative Yuan is the norm (BBC has covered this) — DPP foreign policy is an extension of their domestic approach, of political theatre over substance. It’s like a reality show gone wrong, in a country where politicians are thugs and the thugs are throwing improvised explosive devices in Taipei's red-light district — as part of their dispute management method.

2. Punching, hair pulling, throwing plastic bottles and water balloons, as well as splashing cups of water on the faces of rival party legislators are common scenes in Taiwanese politics. Air-horns and filibustering — more like shouting — are also used to drown out one's opponents. I would suggest that it’s not a good idea to try to treat the CCP in China the way DPP treats KMT at home. It is the norm for Taiwanese legislators to throw chairs at each other when they brawled over the ruling DPP's bills, which the opposition (headed by the KMT) will always claim benefits cities and counties loyal to the DPP and is aimed at helping the party win forthcoming elections.

3. Tensions with China is a calculated DPP choice; and I am not sure that foreign countries like the US, Japan or Australia should approve or take sides between the differing cross-straights choices made or to be made by DPP or KMT. DPP raises tensions with China for political gain; and to gain support for their intermittent weapons build programs for armoured vehicles, jets, ships and submarines. Conversely, war talk with regards to Taiwan serves as an infinitely flexible justification for the enrichment of China’s military-industrial complex. For members of the CCP who support a stronger, more modern PLA, and who hope to corral the wishes of liberal reformers, Taiwan is the gift that keeps giving. Like the fear of “separatism” in Tibet, fear of Taiwanese independence feeds the fever of traumatized nationalism, unites domestic rivals around a shared national dream, and serves as a never-ending threat that justifies enormous military expenditures — but not for war.

4. Taiwan needs a bi-partisan approach to dealing with China and deciding on appropriate funding levels for the domestic weapons build programs; if not they will just keep flip-flopping at every change of government. There is no doubt Taiwan is deliberately under-investing in defence by choice under both DPP and KMT; so I am not sure how they can be helped, if they don’t want to help themselves.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Usually they respond with some military exercise near taiwan after some join venture between US & taiwan or DPP election that china is not happy with. think 96.

Except that previously it was a one-off occurance. Now it's every week, with no sign of stopping. That is an escalation by the CCP.

China is also doing the same to Japan, constantly making it scramble for no obvious reason other than that Tokyo has an independent foreign policy that doesn't always align with Beijing's.

 

[weaponwh]

Except that previously it was a one-off occurance. Now it's every week, with no sign of stopping. That is an escalation by the CCP.

China is also doing the same to Japan, constantly making it scramble for no obvious reason other than that Tokyo has an independent foreign policy that doesn't always align with Beijing's.

when DPP in charge and doesn't recognize the 92 consensus, we know the relationship between taiwan/china gonna cool down. Also unlike 2001ish when DPP was in charge, china military/economy was very different . their military/economy is advancing, anyone can see they gonna have regular exercise due to these advancement, before they just dont have the capability/tension wasn't high enough and lock the financial support to do these exercise all the time. also i can see if say KMT in charge, they may well lower the exercise rate. as china military/economy advance, they are going to expand these exercise, i haven't seen any power doesn't increase their military spending/training when their economy is growing at 6%+, especially given the tension in the region.
as for that one time thing in 96, china military back then was outdated, which why they revamp their military after 96. so in term of economy/military of china today, its night and day difference. we can't expect same thing like in 96, they would just backoff when US carrier group passing through taiwan strait. as china economy/military grow, these exercise may well become regular event, especially if tension is high in the region.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

when DPP in charge and doesn't recognize the 92 consensus, we know the relationship between taiwan/china gonna cool down.

The DPP also won the 2016 election, not just the 2020 election. There's no actual reason for the sudden surge in incursions based on previous behaviour.

You also ignored by point about Japan. Why is the CCP threatening Japanese airspace so regularly now?

Also unlike 2001ish when DPP was in charge, china military/economy was very different.

The PLA are not doing anything particularly sophisticated, they're flying aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ. That's not exactly challenging.

 

[ngatimozart]

when DPP in charge and doesn't recognize the 92 consensus, we know the relationship between taiwan/china gonna cool down. Also unlike 2001ish when DPP was in charge, china military/economy was very different . their military/economy is advancing, anyone can see they gonna have regular exercise due to these advancement, before they just dont have the capability/tension wasn't high enough and lock the financial support to do these exercise all the time. also i can see if say KMT in charge, they may well lower the exercise rate. as china military/economy advance, they are going to expand these exercise, i haven't seen any power doesn't increase their military spending/training when their economy is growing at 6%+, especially given the tension in the region.
as for that one time thing in 96, china military back then was outdated, which why they revamp their military after 96. so in term of economy/military of china today, its night and day difference. we can't expect same thing like in 96, they would just backoff when US carrier group passing through taiwan strait. as china economy/military grow, these exercise may well become regular event, especially if tension is high in the region.

Of course you are ignoring the fact that one major source of tension in the region are the illegal actions of the PRC itself in the SCS.