China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[ngatimozart]

Bringing the evidence for the future is a difficult thing. One speculates, because one is only making a prediction. For example, in his post above on this topic, Ananda wrote: "However, this does not change the fact that at the moment and at least until the end of the decade, they (Chinese) are still lagging behind the world's leading litography machine technology. ". Like me, he has not provided any evidence, but neither do I demand any from him, nor do you, by the way. I believe him as well as the following authors who point out that the US will never allow China to legally obtain these technologies.

Hochtechnologie: USA wollen ASML-Lieferungen an China unterbinden

Laut Medienberichten unternehmen die USA einen neuen Anlauf, um High-End-Chip-Fertigungstechnologie von ASML von China fernzuhalten.

www.computerbase.de

Verkaufsstopp bei ASML: China soll keine Lithografie-Systeme mehr bekommen

Die USA wollen in den Niederlanden offenbar ein Exportverbot für ASML durchsetzen. Der Marktführer soll chinesische Firmen wie SMIC nicht mehr beliefern.

www.heise.de

US May Hammer China Chip Ambitions With New Curbs Plan

A US plan to halt the sale to China of crucial equipment for making semiconductors may be a hammer blow to the nation's chipmaking ambitions.

www.asiafinancial.com

There are reports that researchers in China want to develop high-tech materials with which process nodes of 7, 5 and 3 nm can be realised on chips with the help of "direct self-assembly" processes - without the use of EUV lithography technology, to which the Chinese do not have access due to a US trade embargo, but these are only reports so far.

China: Mit Hightech-Materialien gegen das EUV-Handelsembargo

(Bild: ASML/ Bart van Overbeeke) Forscher in China wollen Hightech-Stoffe entwickelt haben, mit denen sich mithilfe von „Direct Self Assembly“-Verfahren Prozessknoten von 7, 5 und 3 nm auf Chips realisieren lassen – ohne den Einsatz der EUV-Lithografietechnik, auf die die Chinesen aufgrund eines...

www.elektronikpraxis.vogel.de

You haven't supplied the required information and are banned for one week whilst the Moderators discuss your future on here.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

There is one thing that china is decades ahead with, compared to Russia or the West: making ice cream that can not melt!

 

[koxinga]

Read my post from #719 where me and some other members already discuss China progress on Litography Machine from various sources. This's shown their leading Litography producer SMEE at least still a decade behind in current tech development on this area (base on their current product line), from leading Global producer like ASML and Nikon. However China pouring money to catch up on this. That's why at least until end of this decade Chinese player like SMEE need (even with all the effort to catch up) with leading global Litography machine producer. All this base on their current RnD and existing product line.

What Ngati ask you to provide I believe is your claim that nobody will catch up with ASML for the next three decades (including Nikon). That's very tall order, as even ASML themselves (as I put in post #721 on market assessment) was very aware on Chinese own Litography drive while Nikon closing in on them. Clearly ASML themselves did not shown confidence having next 3 decades continue leads.

The market assessment that I provide in post #721 coming from market analyst that already specialised in this sector. Nobody shown ASML will be definitely save to lead for next three decades in this sector. Perhaps you have other sources ?

An interesting article. (needs email to download)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) was found to have used 7nm technology to manufacture the MinerVa Bitcoin Miner system on chip (SoC). The research suggest that it is probably not done using EUV (instead, using older technology/nodes) and the yield is probably low and only for a specific circuit. It is also similar to TSMC's process technology.

Disruptive Technology: 7nm SMIC MinerVa Bitcoin Miner | TechInsights

TechInsights has discovered what appears to be SMIC 7nm technology in the MinerVa Bitcoin Miner SoC. Learn why this matters and its market impact by downloading our Disruptive Technology Brief today.

www.techinsights.com

 

[Ananda]

China's largest foundry raises alarm with production of basic 7nm SoCs

Whether it copied TSMC's technology as has been suggested, or it has discovered new tech fair and square, China's largest foundry is shipping 7nm chips.

www.phonearena.com

Another article on this SMIC 7nm chipset. However without EUV Litography engine, you still have limitation to print components in the same density as Litography machines.

So the progress of SMEE on Litography still needed by China to really compete in parity. Still what the article shown, by pouring money of every angle of Semiconducter production method, China try and so far shown momentum to catching up.

 

[Ananda]

AMAT: Failed Chip Sanctions & What It Means To Non-Chinese Semicon Equipment Companies

Chinese DRAM manufacturer Fujian Jinhua, sanctioned by U.S in 2018, is continuing to make chips using domestic suppliers.

seekingalpha.com

Market assesment on China semiconductors. This shown asside from Litography, China domestic semiconductor environment increasing their portion of supplies to their own semiconductors foundries.

This is why I put much interest on SMEE, as if SMEE can catching up with ASML and Nikon, then China semiconductors self reliance is near complete. Thus US effort to hold Chinese advance on this area, better be channel to rebuild their own self reliances within US soil. All this show mulitipolar globalisation increasingly shown momentum.

 

[Vivendi]

Estonia and Latvia are joining Lithuania in pulling out of what was originally known as the "16+1" forum, originally consisting of 16 European countries + China. Close ties between China and Russia was given as part of the reason for pulling out. The countries now prefer to work within the EU framework and "in line with rules-based international order and values such as human rights."

Two More Baltic Countries Quit China-Led Forum Amid Ukraine War

War in Ukraine, China’s ties with Russia have made it harder for China to be seen as benign trading partner, analyst says

www.voanews.com

Interesting development. It will also be interesting to see if Estonia and Latvia will be punished for this move.

 

[ngatimozart]

Estonia and Latvia are joining Lithuania in pulling out of what was originally known as the "16+1" forum, originally consisting of 16 European countries + China. Close ties between China and Russia was given as part of the reason for pulling out. The countries now prefer to work within the EU framework and "in line with rules-based international order and values such as human rights."

Two More Baltic Countries Quit China-Led Forum Amid Ukraine War

War in Ukraine, China’s ties with Russia have made it harder for China to be seen as benign trading partner, analyst says

www.voanews.com

Interesting development. It will also be interesting to see if Estonia and Latvia will be punished for this move.

Yep they will be but the CCP/PRC may be a bit more cautious this time because when it punished Lithuania it picked a fight with the EU and things got serious, so we'll see.

 

[Ananda]

Non Chinese sources especially in West sneer on Chinese production as copy cat industry. However able to copy cat something is also big effort. If you give blue prints to other emerging market producers in India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia or Mexico, even giving permision to copy, they will be struggling to create complete copy (by themselves) just like the Chinese already done.

This is what I wrote few days ago on Indian Navy thread on China as copy cat that many Non Chinese believe and keep that perception. However as I have put in my Post, thing as not as simple as that. I also want to add, if it is, then many in market already discount future of Chinese tech companies, which they do not.

Found this VLOG on some guy that talking on Military Tech development. Not all I agree with him, but I do agree with him on assessing one country capabilities to further their tech development. In sense, as I have mentioned before in this thread, look on the infrastructure that country has build to support their tech development. How far they're pouring money in it.

Copying some tech, especially current modern tech is not something that easy to do. Most of the time they only have rough design information, but they can use it as guidance to develop based on what they already have. In sense it's mean the 'follower' country has to have their own RnD teams and infrastructure already to goes into that direction.

That's what China done in cutting edge tech of Hypersonic, Emals, Maglev, and what now become real concern to Biden administration on semiconductor. You see what others developing, and used that as 'guidences' to develop your own version with what you already have. This means their RnD teams already working on similar fields and already reach some kind of parity on tech understanding. Without that you can't developing your own even base on some kind of uncompleted blue print or specs.

If one country doesn't go all the way on development their human resources and supporting research infrastructure to support. Then no matter how much Political support they are established, it will not be able to catching up. Even that will not be enough unless you can attract enough talent pool for that area.

This video even tough I also not agree on his every points. One thing that need to ponder is will US can attract enough talent pool to work on manufacturing stages instead in design stages. Working in design and software development are much more rewarding and attractive then in manufacturing stages. This's what US graduates are already used more.

While in Taiwan, they're geared for manufacturing stages, and China have enough pool to attract on both stages.

Right now, I see many pundits that try to discount China future due to US tighten the tech assets, Slow down in economy (due to COVID), and most importantly the usual 'western' look down on China as uninnovative society due to Political system.

Looking down and downplay someone else is something that usually corner you in the surprise stages, when they (that you underestimate) finally able to catch up.

 

[John Fedup]

A rather lengthy article on Xi and his rise to power. The author is a former academic who interfaced with party insiders. He is now an exile living in the US. Hard to see how Xi could be removed but he has pissed off a ton of insiders as well as the local population due to COVID mismanagement.

The Weakness of Xi Jinping

Hubris and paranoia threaten China’s future.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[STURM]

he has pissed off a ton of insiders as well as the local population due to COVID mismanagement.

Yet he still remains in power; is in no danger of being removed; it's him which continues to call the shots and it's him which other leaders have to continue to deal with.

 

[John Fedup]

Yet he still remains in power; is in no danger of being removed; it's him which continues to call the shots and it's him which other leaders have to continue to deal with.

He remains in power and the author clearly states how difficult his removal would be. However his comparison of the CCP to the Mafia is fair. As the Don, Zi is a difficult target but…:he may not see it coming.

 

[ngatimozart]

Yet he still remains in power; is in no danger of being removed; it's him which continues to call the shots and it's him which other leaders have to continue to deal with.

Who says that he's in no danger of being removed? That's absolute rubbish. If he doesn't receive approval for his third term as Gen Sec of the CCP and loses his position as chairman of the CMC (Central Military Commission), he's history even if he's made President of the PRC. His approval for his third term at the 20th Convention of the CCP in November is definitely not a given, in fact it is not even certain that he has the numbers to squeak through, nor is it certain if the Jiang faction have the numbers to deny him his third term. There are rumours that he'll give up the General Secretary position but retain chairman of the CMC where the real power lies, and be given the role of President of the PRC, but that's all they are, rumours.

 

[STURM]

Who says that he's in no danger of being removed? That's absolute rubbish..

My mistake then; he's is danger of being removed. Ultimately would you agree that whether he stays on or his political fortunes wane; it will have no impact on Taiwan in that China will maintain its present policy.

 

[John Fedup]

My mistake then; he's is danger of being removed. Ultimately would you agree that whether he stays on or his political fortunes wane; it will have no impact on Taiwan in that China will maintain its present policy.

There will always be pressure but an outright invasion is less likely IMHO. The outcome of the Ukraine war might be a factor down the road.

 

[STURM]

The Chinese don't want to invade but if they feel that their hand is forced and there is no alternative: they will invade; make no mistake about it; they will.

The war in the UKraine will give the Chinese a lot to think about but they will also draw the right lessons from it.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Chinese don't want to invade but if they feel that their hand is forced and there is no alternative: they will invade; make no mistake about it; they will.

The war in the UKraine will give the Chinese a lot to think about but they will also draw the right lessons from it.

If Xi is successful and retains his current three roles he will increase the rhetoric and threats. If / when the Taiwanese don't back down he will invade because it is a political imperative and he's put a deadline on it. The other point, that the deadline he put on absorbing Taiwan into the motherland is CCP policy and it will happen the easy way or the hard way as far as the CCP is concerned. 1st October 2049 is the centenary of the founding of the PRC and that is when Xi has stipulated that the renegade Taiwanese will be part of the motherland, full absorbed, subdued and very happy living under the beneficial, wise and tender care of the CCP; if they don't then the executions will start after breakfast. So any invasion has to occur well before then because it will take them years to subdue the island to the point where they have what would be a reasonably compliant population. The CCP is never wrong and never makes mistakes, so it will not back down on Taiwan at all, come hell, high water, or the second coming of Mao Zedong.

 

[Vivendi]

The Chinese don't want to invade but if they feel that their hand is forced and there is no alternative: they will invade; make no mistake about it; they will.

What do you mean by "if they feel that their hand is forced"? Can you give some examples? So far, the increase in temperature has mainly been caused by China.

The war in the UKraine will give the Chinese a lot to think about but they will also draw the right lessons from it.

Why do you think they will draw "the right lessons from it"? Could you please give some examples of what the "right lessons" might be?

Do you think Putin was drawing "the right lessons" from the US' chaotic exit from Afghanistan? Or is it more likely that he was drawing the wrong lessons, and perhaps that was one of the reasons why he decided to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine while Biden is still president?

I hope that China will draw the right lessons from Ukraine: That launching a full invasion of a neighboring country can be extremely expensive, highly unpredictable, and should be avoided at all costs. In particular if the country in question will get massive support of resourceful countries across the globe.

 

[STURM]

What do you mean by "if they feel that their hand is forced"? Can you give some examples?

If for example they feel that Taiwan is close to declaring independence; has reached a point where it can successfully hold off an invasion, etc.

So far, the increase in temperature has mainly been caused by China.

This a discussion about the geo political situation; not who is right or wrong or to blame.

Why do you think they will draw "the right lessons from it"? Could you please give some examples of what the "right lessons" might be?

If you look back the PLA has devoted a lot of time and effort in studying past wars. The Gulf War was a major wake up call up as to how badly in need of modernisation the PLA was and since then it has made a concentrated effort to catch up with the U.S. and other countries. The 1996 crisis when a USN sailed through the Taiwan Straits was also a reminder of how weak PLA was.

China is watching the Ukraine war very carefully and is learning from it. It will not make the same mistakes as Russia and if it acts it will act with its full might and not based on flawed assumptions. The right lessons they would have drawn would be the need to win the information war [we know they place great importance in this]; the effects of sanctions; the need to have large stockpiles of essentials, the need to fully understand what they're facing; the importance of jointness and combined arms, etc.A lot of what they see might not be lessons per see but sharp reminders

Do you think Putin was drawing "the right lessons" from the US' chaotic exit from Afghanistan? Or is it more likely that he was drawing the wrong lessons, and perhaps that was one of the reasons why he decided to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine while Biden is still president?

I think he was living in his own world; underestimated the capability of his military and badly understood what he was facing.

Russian units were told only three days in advance they were going in. They were told they would sporadic resistance at best. What does that tell you?

In particular if the country in question will get massive support of resourceful countries across the globe.

Irrelevent. If the Chinese leadership feels it has been backed into a corner and has to invade; it will. Understand the importance the Chinese leadership places in Taiwan and the position Taiwan occupies in their psyche. As far as economic goes China is a completely different animal to Russia and it's in a far better position to withstand sanctions.

 

[Vivendi]

If for example they feel that Taiwan is close to declaring independence; has reached a point where it can successfully hold off an invasion, etc.

Taiwan is for all practical purposes an independent country already. They will not "declare independence" since they are concerned this will trigger an invasion. As for successfully holding off an invasion: Very few analysts predicted before February 24 that Ukraine would be able to hold their own against Russia. Almost all analysts underestimated Ukraine and overestimated Russia, pre-invasion. How will China avoid this? Corruption in China is rampant. They need to cross the water to invade, having a huge disadvantage compared to the Ru/Ukr situation. Taiwan has, unlike Ukraine, modern equipment. Taiwan will have, unlike Ukraine, full support from the US from day one. Also, a major military force like Japan will support Taiwan in ways that Ukraine can only dream about.

Taiwan also have several disadvantages of course, including the challenges of supply lines (being an island). However, just like the US/USSR underestimated Afghanistan, and just like the US underestimated Vietnam, so there is a significant risk that China will underestimate the costs and risks of invading Taiwan. As mentioned in the Ukr thread, the fundamentals remain: A war is a test of wills and logistics. How many Chinese are willing to die to conquer an island that the PLA never governed, and that China has had an undefined and ambivalent relationship to for centuries? How many Taiwanese are willing to fight to protect their country and freedom? To what degree will rampant corruption limit the availability rates of Chinese equipment, the supply of weapons, ammunition, food and medical supplies. How will the rampant corruption directly and indirectly affect morale of Chinese soldiers? The answers are not given.

China is watching the Ukraine war very carefully and is learning from it. It will not make the same mistakes as Russia and if it acts it will act with its ful might and not based on flawed assumptions as to the capabilities of its opponents. The right lessons would be the need to win the information war [we know they place great importance in this]; the effects of sanctions; the need to have large stockpiles of essentials, etc.

They will for sure try to avoid making the same mistakes, but again it's not a given that they will succeed. I recall before the Russian invasion you seemed to have quite a lot of confidence in Putin's skills as a master negotiator and strategist. Now you have of course changed the tune. What makes you so confident that Chinese leaders are so much more capable?

Irrelevent. If the Chinese leadership feels it has been backed into a corner and has to invade; it will.

Nobody intends to "force" China to invade. However, nobody can prevent them for putting themselves into that corner.

Understand the importance the Chinese leadership places in Taiwan and the position Taiwan occupies in their psyche.

Understood. You also need to understand the importance the Taiwanese people are putting in their own freedom, and how reluctant they are to be invaded and subjugated as we are seeing in Hong Kong. If China intends to win the information war clearly, they have a lot of room for improvements. You also need to understand the importance of a free Taiwan to Japan and the US. In particular Japan is extremely concerned about China invading Taiwan.

As far as economic goes China is a completely different animal to Russia and it's in a far better position to withstand sanctions.

Yes of course, that goes without saying. It does not mean that China (and the whole world) will not have to pay a very steep price if China decides to invade. Worst case things can spin completely out of control and China may trigger a full-blown world war. But I guess they will still say "it's worth it" since Taiwan, a country most of them have never been to, occupies an important position in their psyche. After all, they have drawn all the right lessons, they have a very strong economy, a strong army, and they plan to win the information war. What can possibly go wrong. Invading a country of 23 million people seems much less risky than, say, firing off a shot in Sarajevo.

 

[STURM]

Taiwan is for all practical purposes an independent country already. They will not "declare independence" since they are concerned this will trigger an invasion

Yet it's not truly viewed as an independent state by most of the world which subscribes to the One China policy and it has not officially declared independence. A major worry for China is realisation that a significant portion of Taiwanese see themselves not as part of China but as Taiwanese.

Corruption in China is rampant.

We keep hearing but rampant corruption doesn't necessarily mean it will be a major impediment [unless you know something the rest of us don't]. Just like how the widescale and deep rooted corruption in Russia was slightly overstated; as Michael Kofman states in a podcast [link I posted in the Russia/Ukrainian thread ] wasn't the source of all their problems.

They need to cross the water to invade

Yes it's an extremely hard and risky undertaking and popular opinion has it that they will fail but if you look at some of the links I've posted; it's not given that it's beyond their ability. Chances are they might secure a a lodgement but expanding it will be the tricky part. Also, whose to say that they will invade at an early stage and not after a period of softening up when circumstances are more in their favour?

A war is a test of wills and logistics

I have a pair of very good books on logistics I'd 'be happy to reconmend. On "will" you'd be surprised but the Chinese don't seem to be lacking it.

How many Chinese are willing to die to conquer an island that the PLA never governed, and that China has had an undefined and ambivalent relationship to for centuries? How many Taiwanese are willing to fight to protect their country and freedom?

You're looking at it from your perspective; look at it perhaps from the point of a PLA soldier who has grown up being told that Taiwan is an undisputable part of China which sooner later or later will be united with the mainland. Again, the issue of Taiwan is embedded in the psyche of the Chinese leadership who will invade if they feel they have to regardless of the U.S, Japan and others getting involved and other consequences.

They will for sure try to avoid making the same mistakes, but again it's not a given that they will succeed.

You have a habit of stating the obvious. Nothing is given. You asked for my opinion, you received it.

I recall before the Russian invasion you seemed to have quite a lot of confidence in Putin's skills as a master negotiator and strategist. Now you have of course changed the tune.

Yes. Like many others I failed to take into account he would blunder the way he has. So? Also I haven't "changed the tune"; I've acknowledged that the Russians have cocked up and as an interested party I try to look at the facts at how and when they did.

What makes you so confident that Chinese leaders are so much more capable?

Did I actually say that? What i did say is that the PLA has a known history of thoroughly analysing past conflicts and that it's unlikely they will make the same blunders as Putin did. Are you assuming the Chinese are incapable of learning and that they will repeat the same mistakes as the Russians?What makes you so confident in your assumption?

Nobody intends to "force" China to invade. However, nobody can prevent them for putting themselves into that corner

And the point your trying to make? Is this a discussion about morality now? You going to lecture me about democracy and a rules based order next? Nobody said anyone was forcing anyone to do anything... What I did say was self explanatory; no need to obfuscate things. Unless I'm very mistaken I merely said they will invade if they feel they have to; nothing about others "forcing" them.

Also if the Chinese do invade to them they won't be placing themselves in a "corner" but carrying out a long belated exercise of reuniting Taiwan back into China.

Understood. You also need to understand the importance the Taiwanese people are putting in their own freedom, and how reluctant they are to be invaded and subjugated as we are seeing in Hong Kong. If China intends to win the information war clearly, they have a lot of room for improvements. You also need to understand the importance of a free Taiwan to Japan and the US. In particular Japan is extremely concerned about China invading Taiwan.

Right. I failed to understand all that and you've made me understand. You going to teach me to suck eggs whilst you're at it? I may not be familiar with the situation but I'm well aware of the strategic importance Japan places in Taiwan and the fact that Japan will get involved but thank you ...

After all, they have drawn all the right lessons, they have a very strong economy, a strong army, and they plan to win the information war. What can possibly go wrong. Invading a country of 23 million people seems much less risky than, say, firing off a shot in Sarajevo.

You got it all figured out and like with the Ukraine have made the right predictions; a wonder you even saw the need to discuss the issue with anyone else.