Australian Army Discussions and Updates

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I've read this forum for a number of years as an interested observer, it's fantastic delving into some of the technical discussions at times and whilst the moderating borders on militant at stages, I guess it somewhat improves the standard of posting for those non-defence professionals for backward and forward tit for tat discussions.

Whilst the moderators and "verified defence professionals" (whatever verification that entails) certainly know their stuff, they throw their weight around on all manner of topics to the point, unless they work in a dozen different roles, through a dozen different industries, they can't possibly be "subject matter experts" in as much as they profess to be. It really borderlines on professional snobbery and arrogance at times and comes across as fairly toxic for an internet forum.

Myself? I work in Major Project Construction Management, I've built a number of defence force bases throughout the country, but probably wouldn't consider myself a "defence industry professional", but I'm certainly more of a subject matter expert on major procurement and construction practices than some on here whom would readily ban me, i.e someone who might have served in the Navy for a number years with a blue badge against their username who thinks they know how to correctly build a $30bn submarine base.....

Back to the point that was made a few points up and to address your post directly:

"Armchair Experts" - The ASPI article was written by Michael Shoebridge. Former Deputy Director of DIO and ASD, he led the tendering process for the Armadales, Minehunters and Hyrographic Ships. He wrote the white paper for the 2013 Australian-US Defence Trade Treaty. He's held senior positions within defence procurement and led oversight committee's for major defence procurement.

Without trying to deflate what are clearly some pretty big ego's on this forum, but he is more qualified than every blue badge on this forum put together on this topic and whilst his opinion is not above critique and challenge, the fact that the moderators have thread banned someone who proposed very similar views and then once quoting (what anyone would certainly consider to be a "subject matter expert") seems to be kicked off the thread because they have an alternate view as some of the moderators..... The value for money for modern armor, based on a current conflict, is very much worthy of discussion, I mean, if not now? When? This is a defence forum and defence experts have raised this very topic.....

Another point of note, the Australian Army and Navy threads seem to be moderated to a very different standard to most of the rest of the forum. Any discussions regarding upgunning Arafura's, long range Bombers etc are met with the ban hammer, yet one look at any of the NZDF threads you are swamped by a treasure trove of posts regarding Fighter Jet procurement, Advanced English Frigates and Destroyers, Long Range Missiles and UAV procurement - all regarding a country that has not, or shown any indication of spending any significant amount of money on Defence procurement in decade(s). Fanatsy Fleets indeed.......
I have never come across Shoebridge directly but have been involved in the remediation of some of his work. I should specify, the extremely expensive, time consuming remediation, that would have been completely unnecessary if those siting behind the big desks and calling the shots had actually enquired as to the risks of the projects with the experts they chose to ignore. When I joined one of the projects he helped stuff, I already knew what the issues would be from actually listening to the people he chose to ignore. Sure enough, one by one, every issue listed came to be, not by magic but rather mechanics, dynamics and chemistry among other things.

My pretty big ego, as you so aptly put it, pales into insignificance when compared to what you have just exhibited in your post. When I am wrong I admit I am wrong, however I get the distinct impression you don't ever believe you are wrong, otherwise you wouldn't have posted what you just did.

Have you ever heard of lessons learnt? Its actually quite important and if you had read back on these topics, or even better done some case studies, compared and contrasted different approaches etc. you would realise all the major issues with Australian defence procurement have happened before. Have you actually read declassified cabinet papers? they can be a real eye opener, you actually read the advice the government of the day received from the predecessors to Shoebridge and see how wrong they were. I'm not talking about hindsight, I am talking about the experts advising the government, ignoring then current, proven facts and giving bad advice, based on their personal bias.

You may be a project manager, well I and some of the others on here are bandaids, we are the technical experts who are ignored until its broken and then we have to fix it while those responsible slink off to their next over paid appointment. I am certain you have come across people like us before, we are the ones you chose not to hire because our quote is too high and our schedule too long, the ones who warn you of the risks and try to manage expectations, the ones who are honest, even when it is uncomfortable or inconvenient to be. We are the people who fix the things that wouldn't have happened had our mentors been listened to.

We are a diverse group, I alone have worked in multiple industries using transferable skills and knowledge, encountering many along the way who I have learnt much from and admire to this day, and sadly, also others who are poster boys for the Dunning Kruger Effect. I have worked in project management, found it pretty boring and left for a more technical opportunity, I was told I would be good at it, and I was but it gets really frustrating dealing with person after person who big notes themselves, slags on others and then does a worse job at their area of expertise than I, an amateur in the field, could have done myself. I feel most comfortable being the dumbest person in the room and learning from those around me, I am at my least comfortable when surrounded by supposed experts, who don't even comprehend the basics of what they are talking about, but quite easily could have looked less stupid by doing a bit of reading.

I refer to to post 8591 and the example I provided of the advice given to the government by an expert who was completely wrong. Obviously I don't have access to any of the classified work Shoebridge has done but reading his unclassified opinion I do not expect to be impressed. He is supposedly expert in defence procurement, well that didn't go too well, and what does he know about combined arms? Obviously not very much.
 

south

Well-Known Member
I have never come across Shoebridge directly but have been involved in the remediation of some of his work. I should specify, the extremely expensive, time consuming remediation, that would have been completely unnecessary if those siting behind the big desks and calling the shots had actually enquired as to the risks of the projects with the experts they chose to ignore. When I joined one of the projects he helped stuff, I already knew what the issues would be from actually listening to the people he chose to ignore. Sure enough, one by one, every issue listed came to be, not by magic but rather mechanics, dynamics and chemistry among other things.
Where did the quoted post from @TScott come from and go to?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Where did the quoted post from @TScott come from and go to?
It’s pending Mod discussion & currently in the approval queue. This might take a while, as TScott’s post is being reviewed by multiple Mods — some DEFPROs have raised concerns.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Did you miss the part where I said his opinions are not beyond critique? I never said I agreed with them, I'm however advocating an open discussion on a perfectly reasonable topic for discussion. I'm sticking up for a non "Defence verified professional" who got thread banned because his views purely don't align with your own or the moderator, but align with another defence professional with 20 years of experience in the indstry. Banning someone for "My opinion is better than yours" not what a discussion forum is about, it's censorship.

I actually wasn't referring to you specifically for 99% of my post, I was only really tacking on to the end of the discussion and your post was a convenient one where you specifically cited "armchair experts". But thanks for the perfect illustration of my point with your response ~ by making professional assumptions, getting personal and completely dismissing my post out of hand......

I've got a technical background in Geology and Oil & Gas Engineering if you would like to know, so maybe the general assumption that I'm "one of them" and not "one of you", may miss the mark with that full paragraph trashing my professional life just from a simple description of what I do for work.......
I was making the point that I have done project management (including of ADF base redevelopments) but didn't enjoy it, I have done production management and production engineering but didn't enjoy it either. I've even done business admin and definite don't enjoy it and unlike the other things I mentioned, I absolutely suck at it. None of that means I don't have the greatest admiration for professionals in those fields.

I have a real issue with experts who look at things that we don't have all the data on yet and make assumptions, then sell that assumption as fact based on how smart they tell everyone they are. I have an even bigger issue with experts who have access to all the facts and still ignore them because they don't fit their chosen narrative. The end result of experts making stuff up is people believe them and try to shout down people with actual knowledge, based on facts because this expert or that successfully sold their flawed opinion as being the new truth.
 
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TScott

Member
I was making the point that I have done project management (including of ADF base redevelopments) but didn't enjoy it, I have done production management and production engineering but didn't enjoy it either. I've even done business admin and definite don't enjoy it and unlike the other things I mentioned, I absolutely suck at it. None of that means I don't have the greatest admiration for professionals in those fields.

I have a real issue with experts who look at things that we don't have all the data on yet and make assumptions, then sell that assumption as fact based on how smart they tell everyone they are. I have an even bigger issue with experts who have access to all the facts and still ignore them because they don't fit their chosen narrative. The end result of experts making stuff up is people believe them and try to shout down people with actual knowledge, based on facts because this expert of that successfully sold their flawed opinion as being the new truth.
Has Shoebridge made stuff up though? Does he not have access to all the data and is making assumptions? He certainly might be selling a flawed opinion, but plenty on here might be countering with just as flawed opinions...

Pretty solid accusation for the Director of ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security program.

I'm just here to bring some impartiality to the discussion, I guarantee you if @MARKMILES77 had told a verified defence pro on here that they were making stuff up and were selling a flawed opinion , he would have been site banned within minutes. Yet others on here can throw those accusations around with impunity to back up their arguments. It seems my post is already up for review for merely trying to raise some of the hypocrisy I've observed over the years.

All I'm trying to say, defence pro or no defence pro, when it's not in relation to in-depth technical discussion, I don't think you should be censored for discussing general defence policy and procurement, especially if it's also been raised for discussion by other defence professionals within the industry (rightly or wrongly).

The Australian Navy thread is another good example. The upgunning of the Arafura's has been met with threats of instant bans and a wide array of criticism particularly when raised by non-defence pro's on here.

I mean, it's only been raised by the leader of the opposition as a key election policy item, only months away. But it's a taboo discussion item because a few people, including the moderators, don't agree with the general opinion regarding it.....

From Albanese himself - "That includes considering whether tomahawk missiles can be fitted to Collins Class submarines, a review of the frigates project, and the possibility of upgraded weapons on Arafura Class offshore patrol vessels plus additional Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyers. "

 
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Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Rebuilding the Royal Navy: Warship Design Since 1945 - D. K. Brown, George Moore - Google Books

I worked in the industry for years and then learnt a lot more when I read the above, (also check out anything written by Friedman as his design histories written from his deep dives into archival source material, while Brown, apart from being the design lead on some of what he has written about, also worked closely with his predecessors and had ready access to their notes) This particular book discusses the spiral you get into when you start adding combat capability to non combatants. Basically as you add combat capability the platform becomes more valuable and less disposable, this means it requires improvements in survivability, these improvements drive up size and expense, justifying increased offensive capability. Very soon you are paying a similar price for an armed OPV as you would be for a corvette or patrol frigate.

Most of the costs these days are in the systems on board the platform, not the platform its self. Counter intuitively, if you skimp on the platform, or make bad, cost driven, assumptions, you can inadvertently increase cost of ownership and reduce capability. Steel is cheap and air is free, having more volume, in a larger, more survivable platform is good, but at some point you reach to point of diminishing returns where you get better value for money biting the bullet and going for something better overall.

Basically patrol boats are much cheaper to operate than major fleet units but due to their operational limitations, major fleet units need to back them up. OPVs are larger and more capable than patrol boats and don't require the same level of support from major fleet units, i.e. they can cover patrols usually requiring an ANZAC or FFG during the monsoon period where sea conditions were borderline dangerous for the Armidales. It doesn't help that the Armidales had easily predicted structural issues, corrosion and design faults, not to mention were procured under a completely unworkable contract and operated under a model that actually discourages any sense of ownership or accountability. The really dumb thing about the Armidales, the government paid more to have them fabricated out of aluminum because the weight saving equated to a fuel saving that was meant to be significantly more than the extra construction costs. It probably was for all I know, but I also know maintenance requirements associated with the use of aluminum were much higher than anticipated and also also significantly impacted safety, availability and capability.

Adding weapons to the Arafuras is a questionable move, it doesn't mean it wont be assessed, or that it wont happen. Nothing anyone can do will turn an OPV into a corvette or frigate unless of course it was designed as an OPV version of a corvette or frigate, fitted for but not with.

For examples the ANZACs were designed as patrol frigates capable of being upgraded to GP frigates. When the design was selected Paul Dibb complained that they were too large and too capable for the role we acquired them for, in hindsight, I think he was right. We have spent huge sums of money upgrading them to become compromised high end combatants. there is nothing wrong with the systems they have received, the problem is they are too small to make the best of them. If they were smaller and less capable, as Dibb wanted, then the successive governments of both ilks, would have no choice but to replace the FFGs and DDGs with something larger and more capable something that could take the ANZAC upgrades with far less compromise and be much better value for money.

This in turn would have meant more shipbuilding, no ship building black hole (instead of two) and as the ANZACs were patrol frigates, no need for OPVs.

And I just realised I posted this in the army topic. My bad.
 
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ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Be interesting to see how it develops and compares to foreign equivalents. Australian industry can be very capable when given the chance just held back at times from stupid decisions by either civilians in government or military high command. Hell one of the past weapons designed built and even tested by a soldier in the army was a bullpup 7.62 before the Styer was even made let alone selected with apparently better aim, fewer parts and easier maintenance (he used parts from an AK-47 for it). KAL1 general purpose infantry rifle if any one curious about it. Oh what could have been...
It’s own designer said it was superior…

It was never proven, whereas the F-88 has served us well for decades… The designer had zero industrial capability to produce it, zero financial resources with which to give Army a reason to believe he wouldn’t fall over financially speaking, and would have had to gain the support of ADI for test, development (it was the wrong calibre that Army wanted for a start) and despite being a bullpup designed weighed basically the same as an SLR and didn’t offer an optical sighting system nor a rail to mount one…
 
It’s own designer said it was superior…

It was never proven, whereas the F-88 has served us well for decades… The designer had zero industrial capability to produce it, zero financial resources with which to give Army a reason to believe he wouldn’t fall over financially speaking, and would have had to gain the support of ADI for test, development (it was the wrong calibre that Army wanted for a start) and despite being a bullpup designed weighed basically the same as an SLR and didn’t offer an optical sighting system nor a rail to mount one…
ouch - yes Australian industry can be good but it can also be truly awful which should be no surprise to anyone the key issue is what does local manufacture bring to the table and at what cost i.e. what is the VFM in this business case and if it doesn't stack up we should by law just import the product.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Has Shoebridge made stuff up though? Does he not have access to all the data and is making assumptions? He certainly might be selling a flawed opinion, but plenty on here might be countering with just as flawed opinions...

Pretty solid accusation for the Director of ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security program.

I'm just here to bring some impartiality to the discussion, I guarantee you if @MARKMILES77 had told a verified defence pro on here that they were making stuff up and were selling a flawed opinion , he would have been site banned within minutes. Yet others on here can throw those accusations around with impunity to back up their arguments. It seems my post is already up for review for merely trying to raise some of the hypocrisy I've observed over the years.

All I'm trying to say, defence pro or no defence pro, when it's not in relation to in-depth technical discussion, I don't think you should be censored for discussing general defence policy and procurement, especially if it's also been raised for discussion by other defence professionals within the industry (rightly or wrongly).

The Australian Navy thread is another good example. The upgunning of the Arafura's has been met with threats of instant bans and a wide array of criticism particularly when raised by non-defence pro's on here.

I mean, it's only been raised by the leader of the opposition as a key election policy item, only months away. But it's a taboo discussion item because a few people, including the moderators, don't agree with the general opinion regarding it.....

From Albanese himself - "That includes considering whether tomahawk missiles can be fitted to Collins Class submarines, a review of the frigates project, and the possibility of upgraded weapons on Arafura Class offshore patrol vessels plus additional Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyers. "

There are Defence Pros (DEFPROS) on here who cannot and will not comment on some topics because of the nature of their work. However they can make their views known other ways without compromising national security. Other Defence Pros on here a Subject Matter Experts and they do comment. You claim to be a geologist, who would you like it if a non geologist told you that plate tectonics was an impossibility and that metamorphoric rocks were a load of rubbish, or that crystals formed when lava cooled was also rubbish? Or my old favourite that fossils from the cretaceous are not proof that the Earth is older than 4,000 years? What about hydrocarbon deposits found in sedimentary basins, or the P & S waves that occur during earthquakes? Or liquefaction? You wouldn't like someone questioning your professional qualifications or abilities would you?

Do you know why we jump on people who have gone on about the up arming of the Arafuras? Some of the DEFPROs are, or were, Navy from various countries. Some also know quite a bit about shipbuilding. The discussion about this went on for ages and it was explained time and time again why it couldn't happen. After a while it becomes obvious that a small minority of people don't get the idea and move on. When the Moderators get complaints from DEFPROs and other members about a particular topic being continually thrashed and hashed without any improvement we will act. If after time people don't get the message them we take steps.

You provide a link to Albanese. that means absolutely nothing because he's a pollie after votes. He's not in government and IF he gets to be PM then we'll see what he does. Until then he like every other pollie in opposition is just a wannabe. He most like will find that what he wants to do and what he actually can do are too different stories. Politics are not allowed on here. Read the rules. We are being strict on Australian politics at the moment because of the impending election. In the case of your link it is just acceptable because it refers to Defence.

Now ASPI. They used to be good but in recent years the quality of their defence articles has gone downhill. At present the Lowry is better. When you compare ASPI to some UK, US, European or other publications the quality is noticeable. I don't know why and it's a shame. Janes is another that's gone to the pack.

Now you had a go at me in one of your posts. It's pretty easy to spot because I am the only active Kiwi Moderator on here. I am one of the three grumpy Moderators and you are a newbie on here who's only made three posts (at time of writing), all whinging about how this Forum is moderated. I don't know, nor care, who hurt your feelings, but the Moderators run this forum at the pleasure of and behest of the owner. This is a place for DEFPROs and like minded people to discuss matters relating to international defence and security. We do have a set of rules and we expect people to follow them. We also moderate this Forum
ensure that its run as required by the owner. It is not a social media platform. If you, or others, cannot abide by the rules then the answer is simple. The choice is yours.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It’s own designer said it was superior…

It was never proven, whereas the F-88 has served us well for decades… The designer had zero industrial capability to produce it, zero financial resources with which to give Army a reason to believe he wouldn’t fall over financially speaking, and would have had to gain the support of ADI for test, development (it was the wrong calibre that Army wanted for a start) and despite being a bullpup designed weighed basically the same as an SLR and didn’t offer an optical sighting system nor a rail to mount one…
It's a real shame because a 7.62mm x 51 bullpup would've been an interesting weapon. I wonder how easy such a weapon would be to control on full auto? You would've had your non firing hand further up the weapon so may have had better control of it.
 

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It's a real shame because a 7.62mm x 51 bullpup would've been an interesting weapon. I wonder how easy such a weapon would be to control on full auto? You would've had your non firing hand further up the weapon so may have had better control of it.
Maybe, we’ll never know, but it was bolted together from bits of SLR, bits of AK-47 and bits of Armalite and a couple of custom fabrications… Never even seen (or heard) of any firing trials let alone the more substantial trials F-88 undertook compared against AR-15. But like most weapons, full-auto would have been a handful, firing NATO 7.62 x 51mm on auto?

There’s a reason most nations were satisfied with semi-auto SLR’s rather than auto capable FN-FALs…
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Maybe, we’ll never know, but it was bolted together from bits of SLR, bits of AK-47 and bits of Armalite and a couple of custom fabrications… Never even seen (or heard) of any firing trials let alone the more substantial trials F-88 undertook compared against AR-15. But like most weapons, full-auto would have been a handful, firing NATO 7.62 x 51mm on auto?

There’s a reason most nations were satisfied with semi-auto SLR’s rather than auto capable FN-FALs…
Yep, really liked my SLR and it was a beastie to control when match sticked. :D
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
It’s own designer said it was superior…

It was never proven, whereas the F-88 has served us well for decades… The designer had zero industrial capability to produce it, zero financial resources with which to give Army a reason to believe he wouldn’t fall over financially speaking, and would have had to gain the support of ADI for test, development (it was the wrong calibre that Army wanted for a start) and despite being a bullpup designed weighed basically the same as an SLR and didn’t offer an optical sighting system nor a rail to mount one…
That would all make sense if wasnt for the matter his gun and plans where oredered destroyed in 1973 KAL1 General Purpose Infantry Rifle when the head of head of army design learn about it which was a full 9 years prior (1982) to the Army deciding they needed a replacement for the L1A1 On the Merits of M4 and EF88 (and more) | PART 1 | The Cove

As for its weight (just under 4kg) from what I can find it was almost exactly midway between the Steyr (3.6kg standard) and the L1A1 (just under 4.4kg empty?) so saying it weighed basically the same as the SLR is like saying it weighed basically the same as the Steyr... Simple fact is the army didnt even give it a glance but tried to wipe it from existence soon as they head about it.
 

MickB

Well-Known Member
That would all make sense if wasnt for the matter his gun and plans where oredered destroyed in 1973 KAL1 General Purpose Infantry Rifle when the head of head of army design learn about it which was a full 9 years prior (1982) to the Army deciding they needed a replacement for the L1A1 On the Merits of M4 and EF88 (and more) | PART 1 | The Cove

As for its weight (just under 4kg) from what I can find it was almost exactly midway between the Steyr (3.6kg standard) and the L1A1 (just under 4.4kg empty?) so saying it weighed basically the same as the SLR is like saying it weighed basically the same as the Steyr... Simple fact is the army didnt even give it a glance but tried to wipe it from existence soon as they head about it.
Not to be insulting, but you have a statement on the internet that that the gun and plans were ordered destroyed destoyed.
This does not make it so.

Do you have proof off who ordered it. if it was to have been carried it out who was to have done this.
Any further information would be appreciated.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Has the decision been made as to Redback or Lynx yet? I thought it was going to be announced last week.
Mate, you're easily old enough to recognise a rumour when it flies past. I've been sure it wasn't happening from the start.

Not convinced the government will want to announce it in the election run up now. They hardly need to also spend time telling voters that they aren't buying "tanks" proven useless in an entirely different situation in Ukraine. And Greg bloody Sheridan leading the charge for Uncle Rupe.

oldsig
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Mate, you're easily old enough to recognise a rumour when it flies past. I've been sure it wasn't happening from the start.

Not convinced the government will want to announce it in the election run up now. They hardly need to also spend time telling voters that they aren't buying "tanks" proven useless in an entirely different situation in Ukraine. And Greg bloody Sheridan leading the charge for Uncle Rupe.

oldsig
I think you are right, its a lose lose for the government at the moment, whichever wins there will be annoyed losers, lost votes. Also ordering new armoured vehicles when so many are losing their minds over events in Ukraine will pretty much guarantee the politicisation of the procurement.

Get the election out of the way and when the air is clear announce the winner without any concerns of pork barrelling and more is known about Ukraine.
 

Wombat000

Active Member
I think you are right, its a lose lose for the government at the moment, whichever wins there will be annoyed losers, lost votes. Also ordering new armoured vehicles when so many are losing their minds over events in Ukraine will pretty much guarantee the politicisation of the procurement.

Get the election out of the way and when the air is clear announce the winner without any concerns of pork barrelling and more is known about Ukraine.
Is it possible that the winner could be made aware, start on the project asap, but actually be announced at a later time?
 

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Is it possible that the winner could be made aware, start on the project asap, but actually be announced at a later time?
I would imagine both parties would be formally notified of the result, the decision announced publicly through the usual formalities and then formal debriefings (to the losing side, if requested) down the line…
 

Anthony_B_78

Active Member
I would imagine both parties would be formally notified of the result, the decision announced publicly through the usual formalities and then formal debriefings (to the losing side, if requested) down the line…
Agreed. And I disagree with the other comments above.* Land 400 Phase 3 is a potential vote winner. I expect the announcement will be made soon and the government will trumpet the jobs in the marginal seats. If, for instance, the Redback wins then there's votes to be won in the marginal seat of Braddon since Hanwha is working with a local company up there. Similarly, it could help in Victoria, where most of the jobs would be created. If the Lynx wins, there are similarly still the promise of jobs to celebrate, albeit more in Queensland. Fears that the media / public will criticise the government for spending billions on armoured vehicles when they're getting plinked in Ukraine are overblown, IMHO. Jobs, it's all about jobs.

* Appreciate this is crossing into current politics but others have gone there already, and it's impossible not to discuss politics in the context of defence planning and decision-making. And, after all, war itself, as Clausewitz taught us, is merely a continuation of politics by other means.
 
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