A New Blueprint in the Persian Gulf

Galrahn

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IMO, get out as soon as you can. Save your people. This isn't your battle anymore.
Things are that incredibly bad huh? 3000 deaths in a complicated, difficult war are considered so many that we should bail out and give up?

If that is the case, America should never have helped Britain in 1939-1940, since we lost more than 3000 civilians trying to supply Britain with the means to survive the Battle of Britain, even though that was before we were even in WWII.

Normandy was obviously a bad idea, because we lost more soldiers the first 3 days of the battle of Normandy than we lost the first 3 years of Iraq.

There are a number of islands in the Pacific we lost more troops fighting for than we have lost so far in Iraq. Guess each of them should not have been taken?

Where is the perspective in your argument? Do you realize that if the internet existed during Hitler’s day, you would be speaking German? For all of our advances in society, the one thing that appears lost in progress is perspective, it is hard for us mortals who are the most well informed human beings in history to maintain a perspective of history when talking about what is difficult, because true hardships aren’t actually apart of our lifetime experiences anymore, and most students today know more about the details of what were the hardships of our ancestors than most scholars of previous eras did.

You are acknowledging the difficulties and differences between Iraq and the west, yet you have concluded that instead of working out through the differences and working out the difficulties the best solution is to simply give up? You are suggesting that because societies are different it isn’t worth trying to work out problems? How would the US leaving Iraq make any aspect of the situation in Iraq better? More importantly, how will leaving Iraq before they are ready for us to go make any sense strategically, tactically, historically, or under any context?

I completely understand that there are a good number of problems in Iraq that are a direct result of incredibly horrible policy by the leadership of the United States. I think the US has, and continues to, make it extremely difficult on ourselves in restoring order to Iraq. I think it is only due to the incredible capability of the US soldier, and not the current administration in the United States, that the cost of our failure has been financial much more than in lives. Despite recognizing these things, I don't think the failures in Iraq to date are so horrible that they somehow overshadow the successes to date, and I don't think that the expectation that leaving Iraq will make things better is anything other than a sentimental feeling of nostalgia that completely disregards the reality of events in that country, and disregards all events to date. Does anyone honestly believe that Iraq wouldn't implode on itself resulting in millions of deaths, not to mention the potential of economic disaster in the loss of security in the Gulf, if the US pulls out prematurely?

I find it very ironic that any European today would call for the United States to leave Iraq, ironic because that position would be completely void of perspective. Basically, for the United States to agree with the current argument that the US should leave Iraq today, it would be the equivalent of the United States and Britain pulling out of Western Europe during the late 1940s when Russia told the US to get out, and while our leaving would not have actually handed Russia all of Germany, France, and the Netherlands to do with what they choose, the result would have been a Russian conquest of Europe and only someone with historical ignorance thinks otherwise.

Why then, if we didn't abandon the conquered and struggling Western Europe despite enormous pressure from Russia years after the military phase of WWII was over, would we today abandon the conquered and struggling Iraq a few years after the military phase of the Iraq war is over? I think the answer to that question lies somewhere between your unwarranted European pessimisms and my unwarranted American optimism.
 

Falstaff

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Normandy was obviously a bad idea, because we lost more soldiers the first 3 days of the battle of Normandy than we lost the first 3 years of Iraq.

Where is the perspective in your argument? Do you realize that if the internet existed during Hitler’s day, you would be speaking German? For all of our advances in society, the one thing that appears lost in progress is perspective, it is hard for us mortals who are the most well informed human beings in history to maintain a perspective of history when talking about what is difficult, because true hardships aren’t actually apart of our lifetime experiences anymore, and most students today know more about the details of what were the hardships of our ancestors than most scholars of previous eras did.
Please don't misunderstand me, as I pointed out in a statement in the "is NATO a dinosaur" thread (which too is a very good discussion), as a german I- although young- am (and my fellow citizens as well are) deeply thankful for what you and the allies did and suffered during WW2 and the cold war for my country. No doubt that otherwise we'd be either a nazi dictatorship or some satellite state in the soviet empire. We'll never forget that. And although it may seem to you that anti-americanism is rising here I can assure you that apart from the usual stereotypes and general dislike of Mr. Bush americans still have a lot of sympathy here.
But I feel Iraq is a different matter. Europeans and americans share many things. Apart from religion, we have a common philosphical history, we believe in universal human rights and so on and so on. That's another discussion.

You are acknowledging the difficulties and differences between Iraq and the west, yet you have concluded that instead of working out through the differences and working out the difficulties the best solution is to simply give up? You are suggesting that because societies are different it isn’t worth trying to work out problems? How would the US leaving Iraq make any aspect of the situation in Iraq better? More importantly, how will leaving Iraq before they are ready for us to go make any sense strategically, tactically, historically, or under any context?
No, I don't think things will get better in Iraq. I think a civil war will be inescapable in case you withdraw your troops. But I think that we have arrived at a point where working out through the differences and working out the difficulties can't be done any more. Sure, that would be the best solution. But what I was trying to point out is that this has nothing to do with logic anymore. Your troops are trying to survive in an severely irrational and fanatic environment enriched with religious fundamentalism. There's just no way of arguing anymore. That's how I feel. And I'm so sick of reading about the mullahs' statements disrespecting the coalition forces and their efforts to make things better.
And I'll tell you why I think it would be best to withdraw: That's because I think that Iraq just isn't worth all the lives of the young men. Save them. Seriously.

I find it very ironic that any European today would call for the United States to leave Iraq, ironic because that position would be completely void of perspective.
I do appreciate your attitude to not leave before the job is done and I must confess that my view completely lacks any perspective for the region. I really am that pessimistic about it.

The thing is, you are facing an enemy who doesn't give a s*** about the wealth of the common iraqi people and improving their living conditions. You are facing dumb fanatism and hatred. And as you pointed out it is only the skills of the coalition forces that prevent them from far worse.
 

Galrahn

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And although it may seem to you that anti-americanism is rising here...
No more than the anti-European stance of too many Americans unfortunately, and in many cases much less (this thread in particular). A good example of this is Francois, who is in my opinion one of the most insightful individuals on this forum on just about every topic, yet has been treated in a most ridiculous way in this thread by some narrow minded (my opinion, get over it) Americans with an Ivory Tower view of victory. In the US today politics has created two outcomes of this war, an Ivory Tower theory by the political supporters of the left regarding the definition of defeat, and an Ivory Tower theory of the political supporters of the right regarding the definition of victory.

In my opinion, both American Ivory Tower visions and definitions are wrong, because the definition of what the war is has publicly (politically) been badly defined.

Thankfully though, American strategic policy in the region has changed, and no ones political Ivory Tower vision is a consideration in the new strategic policy for both Iraq, and the region.

No, I don't think things will get better in Iraq. I think a civil war will be inescapable in case you withdraw your troops. But I think that we have arrived at a point where working out through the differences and working out the difficulties can't be done any more. Sure, that would be the best solution. But what I was trying to point out is that this has nothing to do with logic anymore. Your troops are trying to survive in an severely irrational and fanatic environment enriched with religious fundamentalism. There's just no way of arguing anymore. That's how I feel. And I'm so sick of reading about the mullahs' statements disrespecting the coalition forces and their efforts to make things better.
And I'll tell you why I think it would be best to withdraw: That's because I think that Iraq just isn't worth all the lives of the young men. Save them. Seriously.
I think that is where we disagree. I believe civil war will be inescapable if we withdraw, in fact as much has been said and guaranteed by both Iran and Saudi Arabia. Each will support radical elements against the other, and while Shia may have the larger population in Iraq, Sunni's outnumber them worldwide 10 to 1, and the ratio of financing is probably a much larger ratio in favor of the Sunnis.

But you speak of logic and I agree, because logically speaking, Iraq really isn't about Iraq in terms of US policy. The policy is to fight them over there, have them spend their money against us over there, and to control the situation by containing it over there. "There" isn't necessarily Iraq, it is the Middle East in general, as long as it is radical elements from Middle Eastern countries that pose the greatest danger to the United States, United States strategic policy will insure they are engaged on their lawn, not ours.

It is the same general strategic policy of the cold war. US strategic policy is about making the front line for US Military Forces on the enemy, or potential enemy, soil... not on ours. If the US pulls out of Iraq, the US will just find another piece of dirt in the region to set up shop. The idea those troops would go to North America is wrong, which is why even Murtha knew not to suggest moving them back 'home,' although I have no idea where the idea of using Okinawa came from.

I do appreciate your attitude to not leave before the job is done and I must confess that my view completely lacks any perspective for the region. I really am that pessimistic about it.

The thing is, you are facing an enemy who doesn't give a s*** about the wealth of the common Iraqi people and improving their living conditions. You are facing dumb fanatism and hatred. And as you pointed out it is only the skills of the coalition forces that prevent them from far worse.
Have faith. Neither your parents nor mine ever believed the Wall would fall, yet there I was 600 meters south of Brandenburg Gate on the East German side in July of 1990 collecting large pieces of that Wall, asbestos and all, as souvenir’s of the event as a present for my father.

In the 1983, my father was so convinced Ronald Reagan was a crazy madman that he both donated about $1000 to his election campaign (which was our summer vacation funds that year), then used the rest of the money he had saved that year to make my brother and I build a nuclear bomb shelter for the family in our backyard. In his mind, the Soviet nuclear threat was unbeatable, and he was so pessimistic about it he was sure nuclear war was the only possible conclusion.

The United States, like other superpowers throughout history, have faced "dumb fanatics and hatred" in our enemies before. There is very little difference between the tactics of today's fanatical terrorist and WWII's Japanese fighter, except the Japanese fighter had better weapons. The only new element to this conflict is the technology of information sharing in the public sphere, thus the ability to spin and spread propaganda, the ability of the adversary to hear the spin and propaganda, and the pace at which that technology enables both sides to make their message available to people on both sides.

The way I see it, if I simply stick to facts and numbers, and ignore the spin and propaganda, the United States and Britain have pulled off the most incredible military victory and occupation in human military history. The US Military casualty rate for example, is so incredibly low that the numbers of soldiers dieing during wartime in the 21st century are lower than the numbers of soldiers dieing in peacetime in the1980s, only 20 years ago. The absolute largest figure that can be found regarding the number of Iraqi's killed is 300,000, and I’m not quite convinced it is that high. But assuming 300,000 is legit, as a German, you are probably familiar with the number of civilian casualties killed in WWII, and 300,000 even if true is no where near the disaster your parents and grandparents lived through. At this 300,000 civilians dieing a year rate, the US could fight for another 15+ years before the number of Iraqi's killed gets even in the neighborhood of casualties suffered by Germany in the 1940s, or fight for another 100 years before the US suffers the kind of casualties we suffered in the 1940s.

I must be missing something, because I fail to see the urgency in withdrawing. I decided when Rumsfeld retired I’d give it 2 more years, and if things aren't going the way I think they should be, I'll do my part in fixing US policy... by voting. Rumsfeld was one of the worst things that has ever happened to US defense policy, when in theory, he should have been one of the best. I don’t think people realize how large the scope of changes his departure actually is, nor the impact replacing him with a man like Gates is going to have on the US military, and US Strategic Policy in general.
 

Falstaff

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Thankfully though, American strategic policy in the region has changed, and no ones political Ivory Tower vision is a consideration in the new strategic policy for both Iraq, and the region.
I sincerely hope the strategy change will soon lead to some results. There are so many topics that are related to this one, it makes your head burst. Wouldn't want to do Condy's job these days.

But you speak of logic and I agree, because logically speaking, Iraq really isn't about Iraq in terms of US policy. The policy is to fight them over there, have them spend their money against us over there, and to control the situation by containing it over there. "There" isn't necessarily Iraq, it is the Middle East in general, as long as it is radical elements from Middle Eastern countries that pose the greatest danger to the United States, United States strategic policy will insure they are engaged on their lawn, not ours.
Well I'll give you that one for Afghanistan, a war that even in our strongly pacifistic society has been accepted as a neccessity in the meantime.
But my perception is that in Iraq the second war created and strengthened the forces you now have to fight there. It's spreading: I believe that without the Iraq and the weaknesses of the coalition forces as it is perceived in the middle east (not by me) nor the recent Lebanon war nor Mr. Ahmedineschad (or whatever the spelling is) would have happened.

Have faith. Neither your parents nor mine ever believed the Wall would fall, yet there I was 600 meters south of Brandenburg Gate on the East German side in July of 1990 collecting large pieces of that Wall, asbestos and all, as souvenir’s of the event as a present for my father.
That's funny, because I was there too collecting pieces of the wall. Perhaps we met before? Although I was a bit closer to the Brandenburger Tor than you were.
Being only 13 and by chance playing at a hockey tournament in Berlin I then had the impression I was in the middle of one of the most important things in my entire life.

The way I see it, if I simply stick to facts and numbers, and ignore the spin and propaganda, the United States and Britain have pulled off the most incredible military victory and occupation in human military history.
The thing is, you don't have to convince me or people like me. You have to convince the people down there. The spin and propaganda works down there and unless that is changed in any way, we have a problem.
One of the more brilliant moves of America's enemies down there is keeping up the feeling that the big satan can be severely wounded or even be defeated.

Rumsfeld was one of the worst things that has ever happened to US defense policy,
Perhaps that's because he was of german origin...


Heard it in the news yesterday evening, the terrorists bombed a playground and killed children between 10 and 15. I cannot believe somebody does something like this. Hope those who did it will die a very long, very painful death and then be trapped in hell forever.
 

Rich

Member
And I'll tell you why I think it would be best to withdraw: That's because I think that Iraq just isn't worth all the lives of the young men. Save them. Seriously.
No disrespect but even still "most people" look at the Iraq situation thru the vacuum of their own personal beliefs. Or in Political narcissism. The execution of the Iraq war may have been flawed but the strategy behind it wasnt.

What is worth those Lives? Was the freedom of western Europe worth all the Yank $$, and constant threat of armageddon? Even if the Soviets over ran west Europe how could they have still threatened us? Or our Hemisphere? Was Vietnam worth it? Korea? Why did we care? And why do Europeans always say we are fighting for a big "nothing"?

Why did we care that Saddam made us all look like fools and weaklings with his 10 years of WMD shell games? Obstructing inspectors? Violating every UN resolution against him? Attempting to assassinate a former President visiting Kuwait? I mean who really gives a damn?

And why should we give a damn about installing the seed of Democracy in a troubled region which will know no peace until such freedoms flourish? Why should we care about surrounding and checkmating the terrorist supporting states whos support has caused the murder of our citizens for 40 years on-going?

I mean nobody else really cares right? Except for a few of our brave friends in the world. Why should any of us care about such hostile Dictatorships/terror supporting states developing nuclear weapons? Its going to have to be our children who will be at most risk in the future probably after were all dead. So who cares?


Originally Posted by Galrahn
But you speak of logic and I agree, because logically speaking, Iraq really isn't about Iraq in terms of US policy. The policy is to fight them over there, have them spend their money against us over there, and to control the situation by containing it over there. "There" isn't necessarily Iraq, it is the Middle East in general, as long as it is radical elements from Middle Eastern countries that pose the greatest danger to the United States, United States strategic policy will insure they are engaged on their lawn, not ours.
That's one reason, there are other I have outlined in this thread and others. Take a look at a map of the region showing the disposition of US forces/allied forces before and after 9/11. The true picture of our strategy will appear.

I'm filled with sorrow and concern about our losses, and those of our allies, in this war. However a soldier, or a Policeman, chooses their life. Soldiers or Policemen dieing in the GWOT are "acceptable losses". Innocent civilians dieing are not.
 

Waylander

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That's funny, because I was there too collecting pieces of the wall. Perhaps we met before? Although I was a bit closer to the Brandenburger Tor than you were.
Being only 13 and by chance playing at a hockey tournament in Berlin I then had the impression I was in the middle of one of the most important things in my entire life.
Hehe, I was on the other side of the wall collecting pieces with my parents.
Nice. :)
 

Waylander

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I was not there for the concert.

I lived in Berlin during this time so going for the wall to get some souvenirs was not a big deal. :D
 

Francois

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Thank you Galrahn, really appreciate that.

I have something new for you.
I didn't see it coming though:

Training exercises under way between GCC and Italian navies
By Barbara Bibbo', Correspondent

Doha: Several officers from Gulf States' navies are currently training with an Italian Navy Task Group marking the first historic visit of an Italian submarine to Gulf waters since the Second World War, top navy commanders here said.
The Italian Task Group, comprising offshore patrol vessel Comandante Bettica and submarine Salvatore Pelosi is visiting the waters of the Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) states following participation in a defence exhibition in Abu Dhabi earlier this month.
Yesterday the Task Group left the waters off Doha city heading to Bahrain with Qatari Navy officers onboard to provide them with communication training. Similar exercises will be held in cooperation with the Bahraini and later the Omani navies, in what the Italians described as a visit to mark the historically friendly ties with the GCC.
"The exercises come in the framework of the historic friendly ties between the Italian and the GCC navies," Commander Benedetto Esposito, representative of the Italian Navy in Bahrain, told Gulf News during a visit to Doha.
"This visit occurs on the occasion of the Task Group's participation in the defence exhibition in the UAE and has continued to other Gulf countries with the aim of renewing our military cooperation with the GCC countries."
Ongoing cooperation
A Qatari Navy Commander told Gulf News the visit of the Italian Navy provided an opportunity to Qatari officers to attend valuable training. "It comes in the framework of our ongoing cooperation," he added.
Commander Attilio Gattia, Commanding Officer of the Comandante Bettica said the exercises would consist of basic drills mainly focused on the exchange of intelligence and information. He said they did not involve the use of weaponry.
"We are conducting basic training with Gulf officers mainly on information exchange and communication," he said.
Commander Aniello Cuciniello of Submarine Pelosi denied any links to the presence of an Italian submarine in Gulf waters for the first time after World War II with international tension over Iran's nuclear ambitions and risks posed to the region.
"We came to the Gulf to support Italy's defence industry on the occasion of the UAE exhibition. There is no relation whatsoever to the US-led manoeuvres in the Gulf waters."
The US Navy, whose Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, has recently denied reports of a US naval offensive military build-up in the region.
 

Falstaff

New Member
No disrespect but even still "most people" look at the Iraq situation thru the vacuum of their own personal beliefs. Or in Political narcissism. The execution of the Iraq war may have been flawed but the strategy behind it wasnt.

What is worth those Lives? Was the freedom of western Europe worth all the Yank $$, and constant threat of armageddon? Even if the Soviets over ran west Europe how could they have still threatened us? Or our Hemisphere? Was Vietnam worth it? Korea? Why did we care? And why do Europeans always say we are fighting for a big "nothing"?

Why did we care that Saddam made us all look like fools and weaklings with his 10 years of WMD shell games? Obstructing inspectors? Violating every UN resolution against him? Attempting to assassinate a former President visiting Kuwait? I mean who really gives a damn?

And why should we give a damn about installing the seed of Democracy in a troubled region which will know no peace until such freedoms flourish? Why should we care about surrounding and checkmating the terrorist supporting states whos support has caused the murder of our citizens for 40 years on-going?
Very well spoken indeed. That's a very well worded and passionate posting.

First of all I have to say that I know the US are the ones that are fighting for our strategic interests as well... Many people don't realise (some would even deny we have strategic interests) it here but in the end it is mostly the US that cares for our stuff giving us the opportunity to comfortably sit at home and point at the US yelling the yanks could've done better.

And I honestly am one of those people who think of democracy as the peak of human civilisation.

Talking about the 2nd Iraq war, there are a few "buts":
- I have the impression that the US and the coalition rushed into this war without working out a proper after war concept, not only for Iraq but the whole region. Saddam wasn't an imminent threat at that time, but some people seemed to be very keen on going to war as soon as possible. Neither was there a real WMD threat nor a link to terrorists.
- The "Coalition of the Willing" was a joke and the people who promoted it wrecked havoc on the relations to the traditional (which happen to be the strongest as well) allies of the US. Talking of us as "Old Europe" and declaring international institutions such as the UN as irrelevant was the most ignorant and arrogant thing one could have imagined.
I am as pro american as one can be and I'm very much into politics but at this time I thought, well I won't say it. These were very dark thoughts.
However, that attitude cost the coalition a lot of international support of countries that have strong traditional, political and/or economical ties to the region. And all that mess just because you didn't want to wait for us.
- The invention of non-military combatants... well what do I have to say. If I had one of these terrorists here in my reach I'd bite his head off and nail him to my walls. But that's exactly why we have a judiciary system which is not about revenge.
- A proper diplomatic approach for the rest of the region was completely neglected.
- This along with the personalities and (oil-)backgrounds of the political leaders who where in charge at that time (here in europe we call them the neo-cons) made all the things you want to care about not credible.

I am about to become an engineer and as such I am educated to design things properly before I start building them in order to avoid human or financial losses.
Seed democracy? Improve lives for the iraqi people? Stabilise the region? Secure supply routes and oil sources? Yes, please! But have a proper plan first or at least change your strategy earlier than 3 years after the war.
And esp. in the early days of the cold war the US didn't exactly have a reputation to support democracy. It's about credibility.

What was the reason for fighting in the first place? What is it now? I somehow lost the overview about all this.

I truely appreciate your idealism and I hope that you are right and I am wrong. But at the moment I don't see how it's going to be working out in the end.

And still I think it is only due to the skilfullness of the military leaders and the soldiers of the coalition troops that prevents them from much worse.
 

Galrahn

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- The "Coalition of the Willing" was a joke and the people who promoted it wrecked havoc on the relations to the traditional (which happen to be the strongest as well) allies of the US. Talking of us as "Old Europe" and declaring international institutions such as the UN as irrelevant was the most ignorant and arrogant thing one could have imagined.
I generally agree with your points, except this one. In general, I believe in the place of International Institutions, I believe they play a role, but I can't say that International Institutions like the United Nations (UN) or International Criminal Court (ICC) actually contribute to the role of security or justice. In the end, the only International Institutions that have been somewhat successful are based in alliances, not world bureaucracy's. In the future, as in the past, International Institutions are only effective as mediums for dealing with international humanitarian responses and a forum for diplomacy.

The "Coalition of the Willing" was not a failure, and was in the end the largest coalition from a United States military perspective since WWII. I would encourage you to research this, because you may be surprised to learn the popular media propaganda you hear regarding The "Coalition of the Willing" doesn't stand up to a fact check.

The "Coalition of the Willing" included contributions from more countries than any UN action the United States has ever been involved in. The "Coalition of the Willing" included a larger percentage of allied troops than US troops than any UN conflict in history, including Vietnam, Korea, and yes the Gulf War. In fact, the only conflict the United States has been involved in since WWII where allied troops made up a larger percentage of troops than in the "Coalition of the Willing" was Kosovo, which was not a United Nations action, rather a NATO action.

You conclude with a very bold statement that the United States somehow made the UN irrelevant, citing American ignorance and arrogance as the characteristics of American policy of undermining the UN. Instead of countering the challenge, I'll ask you to prove the UN has ever been relevant for security or justice.

Where is this mystically assigned relevancy of the UN? Where in places like Asia, or Africa, or the Middle East has the UN united a truly international coalition to tackle a tough problem and resolve it unilaterally without enormous military forces and full political commitment from one of the major superpowers? In any case where you may want to objectively cite an example, make the case the relevancy of the UN was the deciding factor, and that the UN wasn't simply the medium for a popular cause of good will exploited by some international power willing to deploy military forces, economic commitment, and political capital for a popular cause.

I think the US post war strategy, or I should say the lack of a post war strategy in Iraq is clearly an enormous military blunder, perhaps the largest in modern American history, but to go from recognizing that legitimate point to somehow concluding the UN is some sort of driving force of international security is rediculous in my opinion. You may disagree, but I think it is legitimate to question any International Institutions capacity for legitimacy on security issues when the institution can't even come up with a definition of terrorism, or question its commitment to justice when it holds back the ICC from indicting well established warlords who publicly admit to committing genocide in Africa.

Your statement doesn't hold up to a fact check, even though it is a popular myth often forwarded as a fact by editorial boards. I'd encourage you to research the information yourself, you may be surprised what you find. The "Coalition of the Willing" had nothing to do with inept strategy for post war Iraq, to suggest that would be like saying the League of Nations was the reason the Allies defeated the Axis in WWII.
 

merocaine

New Member
whatever about military action in the Gulf it looks like the White House really has changed tack.

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8767631&top_story=1

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,2025025,00.html

First North Korea, now this, Charles Krauthammer must be choking in his cornflakes with this retro 90's diplomacy!


Hopefully if the Iranians and Americans can come to an agreement however tentitive it will give the latest Iraq troop reinforcement a greater chance of success. This coupled with the Iranian presidents visit to Saudi could signify a real easing of tensions.
The White house has seen radical Islam make large gains from afganistan to Eygpht, to Iraq to Lebannon. Engaging with Iran offers the prospect of moving Hezzbullah away from direct conflict with Israel and reining in Shia militas in Iraq. This could go a long way to reversing a string of policy failures in the region.
 

Sgt.Banes

New Member
I actually predict that the Persan Gulf states will change some what dramatically once Coalition Forces leave Iraq. I think that the Islamic Republic of Iran will move to expand into Iraq in order to gain more entry into the arab states and to better terrorize Israel. But of course, they also have to consider the Sunnis in the centerpart of Iraq. Thus you have Iran's huge military buildup, creating new weapon systems, and buying up weapons from the Russian Federation and Peoples Republic of China.
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
No disrespect but even still "most people" look at the Iraq situation thru the vacuum of their own personal beliefs. Or in Political narcissism. The execution of the Iraq war may have been flawed but the strategy behind it wasnt.

What is worth those Lives? Was the freedom of western Europe worth all the Yank $$, and constant threat of armageddon? Even if the Soviets over ran west Europe how could they have still threatened us? Or our Hemisphere? Was Vietnam worth it? Korea? Why did we care? And why do Europeans always say we are fighting for a big "nothing"?

Why did we care that Saddam made us all look like fools and weaklings with his 10 years of WMD shell games? Obstructing inspectors? Violating every UN resolution against him? Attempting to assassinate a former President visiting Kuwait? I mean who really gives a damn?

And why should we give a damn about installing the seed of Democracy in a troubled region which will know no peace until such freedoms flourish? Why should we care about surrounding and checkmating the terrorist supporting states whos support has caused the murder of our citizens for 40 years on-going?

I mean nobody else really cares right? Except for a few of our brave friends in the world. Why should any of us care about such hostile Dictatorships/terror supporting states developing nuclear weapons? Its going to have to be our children who will be at most risk in the future probably after were all dead. So who cares?


That's one reason, there are other I have outlined in this thread and others. Take a look at a map of the region showing the disposition of US forces/allied forces before and after 9/11. The true picture of our strategy will appear.

I'm filled with sorrow and concern about our losses, and those of our allies, in this war. However a soldier, or a Policeman, chooses their life. Soldiers or Policemen dieing in the GWOT are "acceptable losses". Innocent civilians dieing are not.

So in your opinion the iraq war is a "just war"? before we can make moral judgements we first need to understand the reasons behind the war, which no one has really outlined or discussed.

Is Iraq part of the GWOT? well it is now. But there was absoloutly no Al Qaieda presense in Iraq prior to 2003 or a connection between Osama Bin Laden and Sadam Hussain whatsoever. They were enemies not allies, any religious extreemism was a real threat to the Baathists and was outlawed, and Bin Laden described Hussain as the great devil (cant remember were i read that), so 9/11 had nothing to do with OIF, exept maybe in the US public mindset.

WMD's? Well there was really no trace of them. I mean no werehouses, no leftovers, nothing. The sad fact of the matter is that the Iraqies WMD capability had been decimated by several rounds of US air strikes during the period of containment. So what about the UN inspections? I think that was more to do with internal politics than hiding a WMD program. In 91 the whole south of the nation revolted against sadam, he also used chemical weapons against rebelious Kurdis civiliens, so i think Sadam's gratest percieved threats were internal. His solution to this was to have an external enemy, one that the iraqie people would see that killed hundreds of thousands of conscript soldiers, cut off medical supplies and bomb their nation intermittently. Sadams claim that he was the only thing keeping them safe from the "hethen" invaders would seem more than plausible to the average iraqie than the reality that he was the cause of such things. He didn't percieve the west as a real threat because they had the perfect opportunity to remove him in 91 and they didn't, it was clear that they weren't prepared to deal with the mess that iraq would be without the baathists. So one way to keep the hated enemy an enemy was too keep UN inspectors dancing around and UN sanctions and periodic US air strikes in place, not too hide his WMD's, that had probably been destroyed in previous air strikes. This is why when the push for an invasion of iraq really gathered pace in the UN and the US media, Sadam allowed UN inspectors full acsess, because now the west was more of a threat than his contrymen. And what did Hans Bix find? Not a trace of the weapons themselvs, or any infestructure needed to produce WMD's. And NK was a much larger threat, (even percieved threat) than Iraq, so why this massive push for an invasion? This was the main argument behind going too war, and it was pushed verry hard by those making that argument. But it was based on thin intel when there was somewhat more solid evidence too the contrary. It seemed like the justification needed to an invasion that had other motivations.

Regime change? Sadam was a brutal dictator, and mass murderer. I was glad to see the pictures of him at the gallows, knowing the world was a better place. But why Iraq? There are many regimes in Africa that are just as bad or worse, some even supported by the US. So why would the US pay hundreds of billions of dollars and over 30 000 casualties to remove this not so remarkable evil dictator, when it ignores or supports worse regimes around the globe? eg. ethiopia who you said actively traded chidren as sexual slaves in "get your war on down in the horn". That doesn't make much sense too me. (i'm not making a moral judgement at all, just that this is a moral argument made by the US for a justification of the war, and IMO needs rebuttal, so i dont want too get into an argument about the evils of sadam and the great things the US has done for the world, in general i agree with both of those things)

To plant the seed of democracy in the region? If this was the real motive and WMD's and regime change were the cover for it this makes a bit more sence, but not much. If it was it was one masive mistake. The US compleatly misjudged the compistion of Iraqie culture. Iraq is a tribal society. Peoples loyalties lie with there extended family, then thier tribe, then their religion, not their political beliefs. So what happend when the iraqies voted, the Shiite majority elected a shiite prime minister, who it seems has contued a Shiite dominated army and police force, and continued the opression of sunni's. What happened when there was an alleged rape of a sunni women, the investigation into men involved was droped within days. When a Shiite security station was raided by iraqie special forces directed by British forces in Basra in the past week, and found eveidence of torture and murder, he called for the Coaltion troops involved too be punished. Democracy can't work in Iraq for the simple reason that it can not function in their cultural structure. People will allways support or employ people from their family or tribe or religion, whether their right for the job, or right in the argument, or not. It is just their way. This shows the west's ignorance too the cultural differences in the region. But if this was the real reason behind the invasion, it seems like a massive investment in blood and money to back this experiment. You could draw paralells between this and the US's actions in WW2 or the cold war. But in both those instances the US's comercial interests were at stake, as was their verry way of life. It was a massive benifit to the US too have a free western europe, from Nazism or Communism. If the objective was too have a democratic mid east from egypt to iran, and to achieve this by removal of Sadam by force, then to say that they were missguided is an understatement. Why then would you allow lebanon, a democratic nation that had ousted syria and become a stable democray without external intervention, to be fataly weekend by isreal? If spreading deomcracy across the mid east is a goal you are willing to pay 3000 lives, 30000 caualties and hundreds of billions of dollars on that is? (again i'm not geting into a moral argument, it just seems to be counterproductive) this explination also doesnt seem too make much sense. I agree it would be very advantagous to the US and the rest of the West if all of the mid east were stable democracies, a little eurpoe if you will, but this is inconsistant with the US's actions and alliances throughout the region. So arguing that this is all about exportation of democracy at the point of the bayonette is a bit silly.

Economic reasons? Was the invasion aimed at breaking OPEC? OIF did indeed open up Iraq's massive oil reserves to the world market, and gave the US a defacto seat at OPEC. This may seem like a very strong motive for OIF, especially with a world wide peak oil year that has probably just passed, and a US economy addicted to oil, OPEC would be able to hold the world in general, and the US in particular to ransom. However even with Iraqi oil on the market the price of oil has not fallen, in fact it has risen, and it seems like there is a real movement within the US to "kick the oil habit". So although this is more likely explination still doesnt fit all the facts.

Has the US simply picked their battlefields? The possability that OIF's goal was to provide a focal point in the central mid east for jihadies from the region has been put to me before. The hijackers on 9/11 were mostly saudi and there are large jihad movements in Syria, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, state sponsered or not it would be compleatly unfeasable to invade and occupy all of these nations. However with Iraqs central position in the mid east, it could be seen as an ideal battleground for the US with these jihadi movements (you can call them Al Qaide if you want but i dont like calling anything thats muslim and extreem Al Qaida). It is a limited battlespace that can be dominated by air assets without frear of interdiction by conventional forces. This would fulfill the "fight them over there not over here" need that has risen after 9/11. It also fits the aparant tactical focus of the US military, i.e kill as manny terrorists/extreemists as possible. If this is the case then has to be one of the worst strategeic desisions ever made by the US. They are not only fighting Jihadis but the dozen or so other factions in Iraq such as the mahadi army, who are in turn fighting each other, and the jihadi/insurgents for that matter, and have nothing to do with the global jihad movement. They were sent into battle without the tools to effectivly wage it, after the regime was defeated most of the coalition forces went into force protection because they simply didn't have the assets to effectively controll the battlespace. They heve started a civil war in a pivetal nation in the middle east, that will probably lead to Iranian, saudi and syrian involvement that will destabalise the entire region, and could possibly lead to a regional war. And perhaps most importantly they have lost a massive amount of ground in middle muslim opinion, and have swelled the ranks of the global jihad movement with fresh recruits. If anything they have aided al quaida with the invasion, swelling ther ranks with new and angry recruits and bank acounts with fresh donations from sympathetic saudi's. This is more likely, but i still have a hard time believing that the US political and military leadership could get it so rong.

To be honnest none of the reasons above, or ever put to me explain why the "coaltion of the willing" is in Iraq. People often draw parallells between he US's greatest acts and the current situation, like liberation and reconstruction of europe and the emancipation of the western empiers, or the US commitment to NATO during the cold war, and its current campaign in Iraq. This emotional argument is a powefull one, and is very similar to the argument made by Paul Wolfowitz at his position as deputy secretary of defence during his campaign for the invasion that "we can not appeise sadam like we did hitler". This paralell between WW2 and the current situation is a powerfull argument, however it is not really aplicable to the facts and is really just a patriotic and emotional statement. The sad fact is we were led into a unwinable war under false pretenses, for undefinable reasons, without a clear political soloution. I for one will ask more questions of my political leader next time a decision of this magnitude needs to be made, i only hop all of us in the west will do the same.
 
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Rich

Member
I didn't read your long winded post Ozzie because I dont have the time. But correct me If I'm wrong but there was no reference to the decade long pattern of Saddam violating INTL Law and every UN sanction against him. Even including an attempted assassination of a former US President.

The only knuckling under Saddam ever did is when there was a threat of overwhelming force arrayed against him. Once the threat would have been removed Saddam would have gone back to his same act.

Unless there is some penalty for violating UN action against an offender there in no reason for the UN. The 10 years of Saddam thumbing his nose at the United Nations weakened that institution to the point where it is now basically powerless.
 

merocaine

New Member
I didn't read your long winded post Ozzie because I dont have the time. But correct me If I'm wrong but there was no reference to the decade long pattern of Saddam violating INTL Law and every UN sanction against him. Even including an attempted assassination of a former US President.

The only knuckling under Saddam ever did is when there was a threat of overwhelming force arrayed against him. Once the threat would have been removed Saddam would have gone back to his same act.

Unless there is some penalty for violating UN action against an offender there in no reason for the UN. The 10 years of Saddam thumbing his nose at the United Nations weakened that institution to the point where it is now basically powerless.
Well people do you the respect of reading your long winded posts full of flowery rhetoric concerning Freedom and Tyrants ECT....
As I remember it, the Americans tried numerous times to assassinate Saddam!
and you start whingeing when Saddam pulls the same trick!:D
Saddam was disarmed by the UN weapon inspectors, as those same guys repeatedly tried to point out. Plenty of countries violate UN sanctions and they don’t invite the ultimate sanction and as someone who seems to hate that same Institution, why do you care?
I like it, the seed of democracy in a troubled region.... That’s beautiful; it’s like the history of US policy in the Middle East written by the First Lady. You seem to live in a fantasy world Rich, American actions have bolstered every Authoritarian regime in the Middle East, they can all point at Iraq and say why would we want that! And given Al Queada the breathing space they needed.
Its like going to get your hair cut and having your throat cut instead, but yeah know don’t be so ungrateful, you got to remember the barber had only the best intentions, his hand slipped is all.
I could go on but since you seem to have a short attention span so I kept it short.
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Rich you dont have to read it mate. But the fact is if you did you would see all the moral justifications and arguments made by you and many others in support of the war have absoloutly no grounding in reality. So, was 3000 US lives worth it? How about 30 000 mamed by IEDs and small arms? Or how about the 100 000+ iraqies? You cant even tell me what they died for! Yet you rattle out rhetoric that has nothing to do with the current situation, because you cant argue the facts. But maybe i'm wrong, so you explain to me Rich, tell me why it is worth 1 Australian citizen, not to mention the young americans who are dying every day. you tell me rich, what are they dieing for?
 

Galrahn

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
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you tell me rich, what are they dieing for?
I'm not very fond of answering this question for Rich, mostly because I think his comment you had quoted above may have been one of the most obviously wrong statement made in this thread. Specifically:

The execution of the Iraq war may have been flawed but the strategy behind it wasnt.
Sorry Rich, the strategy behind it was clearly flawed, otherwise it would have existed in the form of a post war plan. If you could explain how a strategy that never existed wasn't flawed, I'll be very impressed.

But back to Ozzy a second. I don't disagree with your points to enter the war. I have never believed Iraq was about WMD, or any of the other various 'selling' points, word used intentionally. I didn't buy it in 2003, nor do I now. I have my own strategic theory as to why the US invaded Iraq, but it really doesn't fit into this discussion.

I do however recognize what is being fought for today. If your point is that all of the stated reasons for going to Iraq are not the reason to fight today, I would agree with you. To say there is no point in fighting today after the fact, and the facts, after events to date, and under the current situation I would disagree with you. Today is being fought for tomorrow, and what shape it will take, and that tomorrow isn't just Iraq's or teh Middle East regions future, but the US tomorrow as well. I'm not sure if you have taken notice, but there are unavoidable geopolitical trends taking place by radical, militant extremest in various forms and that isn't good for anyone.

If you want to characterize the reason the US is fighting today as a means to fix a mistake, I won't argue with that conclusion. If you are trying to argue the mistake isn't worth fixing, because the consequences of failure aren't worth the cost and effort required for success, I'd have to disagree. While I'm not certain this is true for other countries, I think the US is in a fight that determines what it will be as a nation in the 21st century.

I'm not going to try to predict what the US role in the world will be if Iraq is a success or failure, but I do think the consequences of US failure, either intended or not, will more negatively effect the daily lives of citizens in a great number of nations than the consequences of success.

You have implied the cost of success is too high, isn't worth it. Have you given much thought to the cost of failure? Seriously, if you know Americans well enough to give them advice on policy, then how do you honestly think Americans will react to a major terrorist attack following a withdrawal from Iraq? The unintended consequences of Russian withdraw from Afghanistan was 9-11, what happens if the unintended consequence of US withdraw from Iraq is a 9-11 scale event against a European country, or even more dangerous, Russia?
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Actually my earlier post was based on the justification behind the invasion, and the patriotic arguments people make about the war that arn't based in reality. But since you commented on my aparent opinion on the war in 2007 and beyond i'll tell you. I agree that a total failure in iraq will have dire consequences for the mid east and the west, if one can be avoided at all. The US is now in an impossible position in iraq, there are so manny insermountable problems its hard to comprehend. The most troubleing are the fundimental differences that no troop surge will ever fix. They have installed a Democratic government that simply can not function as a democracy should, and sectarian violance and opression indemic in iraqie society. As stated above the social structure and tribal allegances will simply not allow democracy to function. That is a problem that can not be resolved. And the fact is that every single time an iraqie man is searched infront of his wife, every time there is a funeral for a dead iraqie insurgent, every time a child dies of starvation or colera, the insurgancy will grow. US troops in iraq are making the problem worse. However you seem to think that a Coalition withdrawl automatically means failure, i believe the coalition being on the ground doombs us to that. The US are continuing to seek a military solution to a political and religious war, this stratagy will continue to be part of the problem rather than part of the solution. So do i think it is worth it? No i dont think this war is worth 1 life, or 150 000. The original JUSTIFICATION for this war was fraudgelent, and was a mistake of biblical proportions. We are fighting to correct that mistake, but i believe we are simply making more.
 

Rich

Member
And the fact is that every single time an iraqie man is searched infront of his wife,
You were doing all right there until this statement. Is that "every single time" or are there, like, a few times we haven't gotten to yet? I suppose we are supposed to give everyone there an opportunity to carry a bomb on their person unopposed eh?

Let me ask you something? Have you ever been to Iraq?

And the reason I didn't read your original post was because I was in a hurry. lately Ive been having 10 mins a day in front of this computer and I dont like being hasty with the positions I take.

Rich you dont have to read it mate. But the fact is if you did you would see all the moral justifications and arguments made by you and many others in support of the war have absoloutly no grounding in reality. So, was 3000 US lives worth it? How about 30 000 mamed by IEDs and small arms? Or how about the 100 000+ iraqies? You cant even tell me what they died for! Yet you rattle out rhetoric that has nothing to do with the current situation, because you cant argue the facts. But maybe i'm wrong, so you explain to me Rich, tell me why it is worth 1 Australian citizen, not to mention the young americans who are dying every day. you tell me rich, what are they dieing for?
What did they die for in all the other pasts conflicts? If you've never been in military service I will tell you the only thing men die for in war. They "die for" each other. That's it! They dont die for ideas, or strategy, or grand delusions. They simply live or die for each other.

And Ozzie you blather on about Yank casualties as if they keep you up at night, "Australia has had like 1 KIA in Iraq correct"? Somehow I doubt the blood of the Yank kids has you missing any meals. They are simply a convenient way for you to strengthen your anti-Iraq views, or other Political agendas. So spare me the whining and condescension. Ive already outlined the strategy behind the Iraqi operation, tho you know that.

Really mate, you sound like a bloody screeching Liberal. Somehow you Liberals, as they always do, attach my assessment on strategy to my personal views. I may not be an Iraq expert like Ozzie but I gave us, at best, a 50%-50% chance of installing Democracy in Iraq. I actually thought it best we simply installed our own Dictator as a backup plan.

Oh gosh, I guess the Great Ozzie is now going to lecture me about morality.
 
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