URGENT- Syria and Israel

Izzy1

Banned Member
are you guys certain that the israelis will win?


Can you tell me an armed force in the region that comes close to the IDF in terms of quality, training, leadership and motivation???
 

icelord

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
sharjeel said:
Syria:

let us for just for assumption remove the females...this gives us a grand total of 19,119,613 man power fit for service. compared to israels 3 million (including the wemon).

Lets keep in mind, the US Forces, would contain many people of the jewish faith, more so then those of muslim faith as the western armies do not accomadate as well for Islam as Judaism, so theres another say, 10,000-20,000 TRAINED Soldiers, whether they be pilots, officers, engineers, or medics, they would be invaluble to any Israeli long term war in the middle east.
Also, Australia has according to world fact book :
Manpower available for military service
males age 18-49: 4,943,676
females age 18-49: 4,821,264
And yet we only have 55,000 in service.

Any country can have millions ready to fight, the problem is this, You need equipment, training, leadership, and enough support on the home front to be able to fight, out of those 19+ million, how many would go, 5-6 million, then they would need training. To be effective, this would require serving and former NCOs and officers, who to any commander would be of more value on the battlefront. From training issues, you need equipment, finance to purchase equipment. In this scenario we need say, 5.5million AK-47s. Say you managed to get them cheap, your still looking at billions, and then, theres the bullet, Hamas pays for bullets used for an AK-47 at a cost $2.20 a piece. Now, mind you, this is just so they can all have rifles, i don't see the USSR policy during the great patriotic war of one rifle for every two men working. If we take into account explosives, since Iran frequently boasts of dedicated suicide squads, many other nations may follow suit, then here we spend more money on a less strategic weapons.

The next problem for this crusade/jihad scenario is stratergy, sure the Islamic governments might speak of wiping Israel off the map, but to do so without the word "unimaginable nuclear strike" appearing, its going to be a long road. Now, Israel is an area of 20,330 sq km, surrounded on all sides by Muslim nations, seeing as Egypt and Jordan are run by more moderate leaders, they'll sit this one out, but there security services might help out. that leaves Lebanon front, and the syrian border with the only viable inroads without crossing over other nations borders. common defence logic would tell, this is the most well defended area in terms of invasion against Israel, we're not counting the Gaza and west bank areas here. Therefore, Your up against some pretty well dug in forces. besides the mines spread across the golan heights like it was bird seed, the opposing forces have some how got to combat an attack by some of the most advanced armour in the world, blowing one or two up in an ambush might seem like a victory, but the other 10 behind are not going to let you off that easily.
Then you have the constant Air attacks, Apaches, F-16s, predators, in continous flight over the opposing force bombing night and day without a break, and then a barrage of the most accurate Artillery imaginable.
And in the middle of this, any invading force needs to be supplied reguarly, and Israel has commandos on top of bombers, so there goes that ability to help.
Most important of all is intelligence, and the most capable Intelligence Agency in the world is not the CIA, MI-6,or even the vatican, Its Mossad, and as the saying goes, Mossad know all.
It don't matter how many people you have, what matters is the most basic and fundamental parts of battle, training, intelligence, statergy and ability to execute all of these, and is Israel has all these, and plenty more.

Are you guys certain that the israelis will win
Certain, no, Confident Yes!

I'm Icelord, Goodnight, and Goodluck
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
sharjeel said:
If syria attacks or is attacked by any one iran steps into the war and vice versa.

as for world support, do not excite your selfs chaps,

the world support is fully against israel at the moment and if the syrians do decide to attack keeping in mind their hugely inferior technology, they will gain even more support from the muslim world at the least. we might not be much, but we are 1.4 billion and israel is 6 million.

think again. not even uncle sam, is willing to confront 1.4 billion muslims all at once, as this would mean: oil embargo, trade via suez shutdown, intel and amd processors from indonesia and malaysia embargo....will your economy be able to sustain this? well no.....


but if i come back down to earth and onto reality, ofcourse those embargoes will not happen, but what will happen is 1.4 billion muslims will start supporting the freedom strugles in iraq, lebanon, palestine and afganistan. regardles of the alienation that might have been between mainstream islam and terrorists.


in light of the improved media these days, if the cards are right, any attack by syria on israel and all its might, is enough to tople governments!

icelord got it spot on! When, ever has population been the determaning factor in winning a war, over industrial capacity, technological level, training, operational doctorine, equipment, moralle, inteligence, stratagy and economic strength? You cant just look at numbers or the Chinise would have walked all over the Japanese in WW2, the indians over the british, the africans over the europeans, i could go on for hours.

And there might be 1.4 billion muslims, there's over a billion catholics too, but when, ever has a religion spoke with one voice? The closest anyone came was Saladin and that was only arab muslims. all people, whatever nationality or religion allways have different views and oppinions. If someone could get any religion to act as one they would be increadibly powerfull but i dont think it's possible. The muslim world might be large, and powerfull, but so is the west. So lets not start beating our chests and comparing how long it is just yet!
 

suntzu

New Member
REPLY TO ICELORD
It might be very easy for you to say such things let me ask you one question
if hezbollah attacking Israeli cities is an adhoc and un millatry tactic is israeli
attacking of lebanese cities a valid millatry tactic
Now about iraq America didnt have any buisness there infact there prescence there is creating terrorists by minute.
it is not the The inability of the Muslim world to compromise or be tolerant of others that is creating bulk of today's wars but the idea of America to force its ideas on muslim world (not recognizing a democraticaly elected government of Hamas . just one example). These things are used by a small portion muslim to attack west can't give you right to target a whole community
 
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suntzu

New Member
Ozzy Blizzard said:
icelord got it spot on! When, ever has population been the determaning factor in winning a war, over industrial capacity, technological level, training, operational doctorine, equipment, moralle, inteligence, stratagy and economic strength? You cant just look at numbers or the Chinise would have walked all over the Japanese in WW2, the indians over the british, the africans over the europeans, i could go on for hours.

And there might be 1.4 billion muslims, there's over a billion catholics too, but when, ever has a religion spoke with one voice? The closest anyone came was Saladin and that was only arab muslims. all people, whatever nationality or religion allways have different views and oppinions. If someone could get any religion to act as one they would be increadibly powerfull but i dont think it's possible. The muslim world might be large, and powerfull, but so is the west. So lets not start beating our chests and comparing how long it is just yet!
Granted industrial capacity technological level economic strength to a large extent do determine the outcome of a war and in all these respcts israel is well ahead of both syria and iran . But israelis do seem to be arrogantly confident(in past they weren't) and this has been undoing of many great armies .
And yes idea of common muslim front seems very far fetched They are divided bitterly (suadis and iranians dont see eye to eye). Moreever common muslim front will prompt many eouropean countries to side with israel. so lebonan and syria will have to go alone
 

merocaine

New Member
The way I see it is Hezbullah wins just by surviving, Syria negotaiates with uncle Sam to rein in Hezbullah, in return for security garantees, and an end to US threats. Israel claims military victory when Hezbullah stops firing crap over the border. There will be no wider war, syria will probobly get to reasert infulence over the Leb, and Israel will have reaserted its deterent force.
Whatever Goerge and Condi say those are the political realites of the region and I guess Israel would be quite happy with that.
I can see Syria and Iran falling out over the future of Hezbullah, and the US trying to split them, it is an allience of convenence after all they dont see eye to eye on a lot of issues and syria is desperate to end its international isolation.

O yeah and they swap prisioners, thats what all this was about was'ent it?:rolleyes:

Hey Sea Toby

The Holy Land was as a vast wasteland in the 19th century. Beginning in the mid-1800s, Jews were the majority, often an overwhelming majority, especially around Jerusalem. When Jews began to return to their "promised land" early in the 20th century, the desert literally began to bloom under their industry. Arabs followed, coming in large numbers for the jobs and prosperity. In 1948, when the United Nations partitioned the land into separate Arab and Jewish states, the surrounding Arab states immediately declared war. The Jews urged the Arabs to stay and live peacefully. Many Arabs chose to leave, to be rejected, used and virtually imprisoned by Arab power brokers.
I read every major us daily and I dont remember them resorting to propaganda
pal I dont think this is the forum to swap propaganda, cheers.
 

sharjeel

New Member
Izzy1 said:
Can you tell me an armed force in the region that comes close to the IDF in terms of quality, training, leadership and motivation???
so you are saying israels army of 3 million maximum will survive against a army of over 20 million man power? you ever heard of war of attrition friend?

i wonder how hezbollah broke through the israeli boarder, located a convoy, destroyed it, and took 2 survivers as prisoners of war?

and say even if the israeli superiority kills 4-1 israeli killed.

then the half of the jewish population of israel or say the entire man power fit for fighting will be wiped with only 60% of man power expeded by the arabs.


are you sure friend you know what you are talking about?
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
You could put 2 million men into defense positions. You may also be able to give them AKs, some RPGs and maybe some ATGMs.
Do you really think these 2 million people are able to withstand even one modern armor division with air support?

BTW, you cannot compare an attack onto a normal patrol with a full scale war.
 

Simster

New Member
A full blown out war, very unlikely. As some of you are suggesting 19million arabs vs 3 israelis, it would be virtually impossible to call up so many men. Not to metion Israels superior air force which would likely destroy any infrastructure necessary to call up such a force, in the time it would take.

But what many are forgetting is that Israel has a undeclared nuclear arsenal, not that Im saying they'd use it. But neither Syria or Iran (at this stage) have any barganing power.
 

webmaster

Troll Hunter
Staff member
i wonder how hezbollah broke through the israeli border, located a convoy, destroyed it, and took 2 survivers as prisoners of war?
Wrong. The Israeli soldiers were INSIDE Lebanon border and that maybe the reason they were captured and their crossing basically set things off which led to attacks either side and on other soldiers inside Israel.
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
sharjeel said:
so you are saying israels army of 3 million maximum will survive against a army of over 20 million man power? you ever heard of war of attrition friend?

i wonder how hezbollah broke through the israeli boarder, located a convoy, destroyed it, and took 2 survivers as prisoners of war?

and say even if the israeli superiority kills 4-1 israeli killed.

then the half of the jewish population of israel or say the entire man power fit for fighting will be wiped with only 60% of man power expeded by the arabs.


are you sure friend you know what you are talking about?

Mate as stated above your not being realistic. Your only looking at numbers and by istelf numbers dont mean crap. How are they going to mobilise 20 million men, train them, equip them and deal with the massive logistacal problems of feeding them? Sure attrition is a factor between two comperable armed forces. but how many times have Isreal defeated all of their enemies when they attacked at once? And that was syria, jordan and egypt, and the difference between capabilities wasnt as large as it is today. They might be able to mobilise 20 million men, but there going to be attacking Mekreva's and F16's with wooden spears and rocks. And you think NATO's going stand by and watch Iran of all nations get involved? To be honest i'd be putting my money on Isreal because every single factor, apart from population, is in their favor. :splat
 

P.A.F

New Member
READ!!!

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,2107900,00.html
Fears of Escalation Rise as Syria Issues Warning to Israel

Lebanon's neighbors are increasingly concerned as Israeli forces mass on the border
Israeli jets blitzed Lebanon Sunday and Hezbollah fired off more deadly rockets in a new bout of tit-for-tat attacks as the conflict continued to spiral despite international efforts for a ceasefire.



As a host of top European diplomats descended on the region, Syria fueled fears the fighting could spread, issuing a stark warning that it would intervene if Israel invaded Lebanon.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was also heading to the Middle East with Washington increasingly estranged from European and Arab allies over a conflict that has killed close to 400 people and triggered a major humanitarian crisis.

At least eight civilians, including a Lebanese press photographer, were killed in air strikes across southern and eastern Lebanon as Israel kept up its punishing war on Hezbollah following the seizure of a strategic border village by Israeli ground forces on Saturday.

The Shiite militant group said three of its fighters had also been killed.

In a wave of pre-dawn raids, fighter-bombers for the first time struck directly inside the main southern city of Sidon, where tens of thousands of Lebanese have sought refuge from the relentless Israeli offensive.

A three-storey building housing a Hezbollah religious centre was hit.

Israel hit Hezzbollah from air and land

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Lebanese are fleeing the onslaught under the white flag
Israel also targeted Hezbollah's power base in Beirut's Shiite southern suburbs and struck factories, roads and bridges in air strikes in the eastern Baalbek region. Shiite guerrillas responded with a new hail of rocket fire on Israel's third city of Haifa, killing two people.

Streams of people, many waving white flags, are making a desperate trek from southern Lebanon after Israel ordered them to leave their homes, raising fears it was planning a large scale ground invasion.

Around 360 people have been killed in Israel's massive blitz against Lebanon which was launched after the capture of two soldiers by Hezbollah guerrillas in a deadly border attack on July 12. A total of 37 Israelis have died.

Syria to intervene if Israel invades

Syria, blamed by the United States for stoking the conflict, warned that if Israel invaded Lebanon it would have no choice but to respond. "If Israel makes a land entry into Lebanon, they can get to within 20 kilometers (12 miles) of Damascus," Information Minister Moshen Bilal told the Spanish newspaper ABC.

"What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Incursions into Lebanon have hit strategic sights
Israel, which has called up thousands of reserve soldiers nd massed its troops on the border, seized control of the strategic hilltop village of Marun Al-Ras on Saturday after sending tanks, bulldozers and armored cars rolling across the border.

An unarmed UN military observer was seriously wounded in an exchange of fire in the village Sunday. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said initial reports suggested Hezbollah fire was responsible.

Ground assault "no invasion"

Defense Minister Amir Peretz insisted Israel did not plan a wide scale invasion. "The ground operation is focusing on a limited entry of forces," he told the cabinet. "We are not dealing with an invasion of Lebanon."

But his reassurances failed to stop mounting international criticism of the Israeli offensive, which has left Lebanon virtually cut off from the world, made hundreds of thousands refugees in their own country and destroyed billions of dollars of infrastructure.

"The whole thing has to stop. It's no natural disaster but a man-made crisis. This is a senseless war," UN relief coordinator Jan Egeland said.

He was in Beirut to launch an appeal for millions of dollars in aid to help the half million civilians displaced in what the United Nations says is a "catastrophic" humanitarian situation.

Britain belatedly joins chorus of disapproval

Even close US ally Britain, which had drawn Arab anger for declining to back UN calls for an immediate ceasefire, stepped up its criticism of the Israeli offensive.

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Britain criticized Israel's targeting tactics
"These are not surgical strikes. It's very difficult to understand the kind of military tactics that are being used," junior foreign office minister Kim Howells said in Beirut. "If they are chasing Hezbollah, then go for Hezbollah. You don't go for the entire Lebanese nation. I very much hope that the Americans understand what's happening to Lebanon -- the destruction of the infrastructure, the death of so many children and so many people."

Bush repeats belief in self-defense

But US President George W. Bush maintained his backing for Israel's campaign as Rice prepared travel to the region in search of what she described as a long-term solution.

"I believe sovereign nations have the right to defend their people from terrorist attack, and to take the necessary action to prevent those attacks," Bush said in his weekly radio address.

Israeli Justice Minister Haim Ramon said the aim of the offensive was to keep Hezbollah -- which controls southern Lebanon in the absence of the regular Lebanese army -- at least 20 kilometers (13 miles) from the frontier. "For Israel, there are no longer civilians in southern Lebanon," he warned.

Lebanon's parliament speaker Nabih Berri -- a close Hezbollah ally -- said the militant group was ready for the Lebanese government to negotiate on its behalf through a third party for an exchange of prisoners with Israel.

Prisoner swaps not on the table

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Israel is fighting on two fronts as raids on Gaza continue
Israel has so far ruled out any swap either for the two soldiers held by Hezbollah or another serviceman who was captured last month by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip, triggering a similar offensive.

Israel said it opened an 80-kilometre by eight-kilometer (50-mile by five-mile) safe passage to Beirut for ships and aircraft, a humanitarian corridor to allow aid to the Lebanese.

Israel's air and sea blockade put Lebanon's only international airport out of action, and the bombing of houses, roads, bridges, factories, warehouses and trucks has created scenes reminiscent of the 1975-1990 civil war.

Foreign governments have been forced to lay on a flotilla of ferries, warships and cruise liners to evacuate stranded nationals, mainly to the nearby resort island of Cyprus which has been battling to find temporary accommodation and flights for the estimated 70,000 evacuees at peak summer holiday season.
 

P.A.F

New Member
http://english.people.com.cn/200607/24/eng20060724_285974.html

Syria will intervene if Israeli troop approach
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Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said on Sunday that Syria will not sit tight if Israeli ground troops invade Lebanon and approach his country, the official SANA news agency reported.
"If Israel invades Lebanon over ground and comes near to us, which threatens the national security (of Syria), Syria will not sit tight," Bilal was quoted as saying in an interview with a Spanish newspaper.
Meanwhile, the minister criticized remarks of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that her country rejects a ceasefire.
"It is unjustified for the United States not to work for a ceasefire," said the minister, who termed the remarks as "waiting for Israel to completely destroy Lebanon and for it to have to be evacuated completely."
"Israel would not be the only player in the region," Bilal said, while asserting Syria's efforts to work for a just and comprehensive peace in the region.
Syria, which supports Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, has condemned the ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon and called for a ceasefire as soon as possible.
Israel has been battling along its northern border with Hezbollah over the past 12 days in an effort to bring back its captive soldiers and remove Hezbollah from the border area.
The conflict has killed more than 360 Lebanese and 36 Israelis.
 

fantasma

New Member
The balance of the region is extremely fragile. Counting the animosity between Syria and Israel if Israel advances in southern Lebanon, Damascus the capital of Syria is only 20 km eastwards..do not miss that the Golan Heigts which are occupied from Syria and are now fortified by the Israelis in a very possible worsening of the situation gives the Israelis the opportunity to attack Damascus from two directions (both too close to Damascus), and the Syrians will be in a very difficult situation dividing their forces on two fronts.. also given the fact that Israeli Armor is far superior in quality, within days they could enter Damascus. Could you imagine what would this mean to the whole area?? The map as you know it today and the balance of power of the whole area will change once and for all..
 

Stryker001

Banned Member
Syria has around 8,479,752 individuals available for military service give or take a few hundred thou. Any operations against Syria will be in the form of Shock and Awe try to cut down some of the numbers.

The Coalition is increasing numbers in Iraq so I believe always possible to enter via the Iraqi boarder. To limit casualties to coalition and Israeli forces Shock and Awe and a siege of Damascus and other cities.

I would expect Syria to play ball before any of that occurs. Any EU/NATO or UN peacekeeping forces present in Lebanon will free up the IDF to target Syria if required in a couple of months. The End result will be Iran isolated from the Arab Nations and Hizbollah influence of generating instability also negated www.arlingtoncemetery.net/terror.htm
www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/10/23/world/main579638.shtml
 

watchman

New Member
Israel & Syria

The best thing for Israel to significantly damage Hizbolla & Hamas is to eliminate their sponsors namely Syria & Iran. It is very clear Syria & Iran are supplying the terrorist yet Israel has done nothing to stop them. Israel's attack against little Hizbollah & Hamas only encourage Syria & Iran. It only shows that Israel does not have the stomach to fight a long bloody war against Syria & Iran. On the other hand Syria & Iran are willing to sacrifice & do everything to wipe out Israel. Israel's lack of will power & perseverance to do what is necessary to win against its enimies unfortunately will ultimately lead to the destruction of this jewish state. :(
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Do you really think this would solve the problem?
You just have to look at Iraq to see how good it works against terrorists to conquer a country of the middle east. Terror cells are spreading around like never before.
What is your plan for Iran and Syria after you annhilated their army? Free elections? A new marionette regime? Annexion?
There will be much more new terrorists, rebells and freedom fighters because of the attack than you will ever be able to kill or arrest the old ones.
 

beleg

New Member
After a century, it is amazing to see that the turmoil in the areas which was once part of a mighty empire still is not calmed but has gotten worse in every possible way.

2 anectodes from the past which resemble so many similarities with today..

On March 19, 1917 addressing to Arab people in Baghdad, Lieutenant General Sir Stanley Maude said:

“(…) our armies do not come into your cities and lands as conquerors or enemies, but as liberators. (…) It is the wish not only of my King and his peoples, but it is also the wish of the great nations with whom he is in alliance, that you should prosper even as in the past, when your lands were fertile, when your ancestors gave to the world literature, science, and art, and when Baghdad city was one of the wonders of the world”


A Report on Mesopotamia by Ex.-Lieut.-Col. T.E. Lawrence, The Sunday Times, 22 August 1920

“Our government is worse than the old Turkish system. They kept fourteen thousand local conscripts embodied, and killed a yearly average of two hundred Arabs in maintaining peace. We keep ninety thousand men, with aeroplanes, armoured cars, gunboats, and armoured trains. We have killed about ten thousand Arabs in this rising this summer. (…) We are told the object of the rising was political, we are not told what the local people want. It may be what the Cabinet has promised them. A Minister in the House of Lords said that we must have so many troops because the local people will not enlist.”

I think there cant be a solution to these problems unless people in "the west" understand the way people "think" in "the east".
 

Rich

Member
Terror cells are spreading around like never before.
Can you post some facts to backup this statement. Or, did it just sound good to say? I myself havnt seen a whole lot of coverage of, "Terror cells are spreading around like never before."

What is your plan for Iran and Syria after you annhilated their army? Free elections? A new marionette regime?
Marionette regimes like in where? Japan, Germany, Korea?? Besides, I'd rather have a marionette regime then one that is killing our citizens and keeping a region in bloody chaos. Thats a no-thinker there.

Unfortunately America cant do it alone, nor should we. The rest of the world chooses its words and actions based on their own self interest. One day these Saudis are telling us to "leave" and the next day they are asking us to "intervene".:p: The Russians find the situation useful because its driving up oil prices and like the rest of the world, America included, the region is a fine arms bazaar. Our European allies will not accept their own casualties unless their own cities are blowing up. And even then they will blame Americas policies as much as the terrorists because doing so makes fine political theatre. The terrorists are rather fine tuned politically and weigh such attacks carefully before doing them. They want to fragment the West not unite it. That and groups like Hizbullah, even countries like Syria/Iran, have been careful to distance themselves from Al Qaeda. They learned that much from seeing Saddams Iraq and Taliban Afghanistan getting blowed up.:D

So there is no consensus which means Syria and Iran will continue to support terrorism and most of us will go to our graves with this war still continuing and the region still in turmoil. So I guess we'd better get used to it. I spent a good chunk in that region and the biggest problem with we in the West is that we want to believe others in the rest of the world are as reasonable as we are. That, and we have a hard time picturing a countries population being utterly, politically disenfranchised and without power of any kind.

There is no reasonable negotiation with terrorists. When are we going to accept that?
 
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