URGENT- Syria and Israel

[radiosilence]

Israel must either occupy with land forces a signficant swathe of Lebanon, or find a way to build the Lebanese Army (may be with help from Egypt and other moderate Arab states)
cheers

Egypt would face an internal uprising from the muslim brotherhood and others if its leadership decide to help israel in this conflict. also, any arab/muslim leader that help israel or act against hezbollah publicly would commit political suicide or even worse.... Hezbollah is doing what many arab armies couldn't do for over 50 years, it has israel bogged down and fighting on their terms. hence it has the universal support of the arab/muslim world.

 

[contedicavour]

Egypt would face an internal uprising from the muslim brotherhood and others if its leadership decide to help israel in this conflict. also, any arab/muslim leader that help israel or act against hezbollah publicly would commit political suicide or even worse.... Hezbollah is doing what many arab armies couldn't do for over 50 years, it has israel bogged down and fighting on their terms. hence it has the universal support of the arab/muslim world.

Actually my proposal isn't to ask Egypt to support Israel. My proposal is that the Lebanese government, Hezbollah and Israel all agree to a mainly moderate Arab interposition peacekeeping force to be deployed in Southern Lebanon. This force (mainly Egyptian, or why not, Turkish ?) would gradually be replaced by regular Lebanese Army soldiers, as this force is built up.
This Arab force would be more than welcomed by the Lebanese government, it would most probably be accepted by the Hezbollah who could parade around claiming to have beaten off the Israeli offensive, and might be accepted as the only viable "way out" by the Olmert government who is stuck in a quandary now...
Basically everybody would gain something from an Egyptian deployment. Mubarak would become a hero for the Egyptians by the way, which would calm down the Brotherhood and most other islamist movements.

cheers

 

[Scorpius]

you seem to think that Islamist movements are anti-Jew bastards.
whereas I met "moderates" who wants Israel to be wiped off the map.

Islamists are anti-Israel though not becuz they are Jews.sorry to bring politics.

BTW, is it true 13 Israeli tanks have been destroyed?

 

[enigmaticuk]

If israel were able to deploy effective defensive systems against hezblh rockets (THEL/MTHEL) then they would not need to invade lebanon. Are these systems matured enough yet to deploy?
The inability of arab countries to contribute significantly in peacekeeping operations anywhere in the world is curious. They have the forces and capabilities but cannot seem to muster the political will. I am of the opinion as others are in this forum that involvement of arab forces is critical for a lasting ceasefire.

 

[radiosilence]

the un resolution 1701 calling for a cease fire is certail to fail due the one sided nature of it allowing israel to conduct defensive operations while israel has claimed that this whole conflict is defensive. why would any country send troop there? to be used for target practice by the iaf, like what happen to four un troops earlier in the conflict.

 

[contedicavour]

the un resolution 1701 calling for a cease fire is certail to fail due the one sided nature of it allowing israel to conduct defensive operations while israel has claimed that this whole conflict is defensive. why would any country send troop there? to be used for target practice by the iaf, like what happen to four un troops earlier in the conflict.

I don't understand your post.
AFAIK the UN resolution calls for Israel to retreat back to its borders, and calls for Hezbollahs to stop launching rockets, and asks the Lebanese govt to deploy its troops in southern Lebanon, helped by a multinational force.
As soon as several thousand UN troops (including European countries) are there, Israel would have to be completely crazy to risk attacking !! Even the US would be forced to condamn them in the strongest of terms...

 

[Waylander]

The problem I see is that the Hizbollah might not stop firing missiles or what I think is very possible they just don't fullfill the resolution.
If this happens too often the Israelis might just think that it is time again to solve the problem on their own.
And then the UNIFIL II is between the lines like UNIFIL I has been during this conflict.

 

[contedicavour]

The problem I see is that the Hizbollah might not stop firing missiles or what I think is very possible they just don't fullfill the resolution.
If this happens too often the Israelis might just think that it is time again to solve the problem on their own.
And then the UNIFIL II is between the lines like UNIFIL I has been during this conflict.

If we don't get anything clearer than the mission & ROEs of UNIFIL 1, then we would be very stupid to send over troops. In theory our government will not commit troops unless the mandate is (i) agreed by all sides to the conflict and (ii) allows for disarmament and strong auto-defence if attacked. Please note I said "in theory"

cheers

 

[radiosilence]

I don't understand your post.
AFAIK the UN resolution calls for Israel to retreat back to its borders, and calls for Hezbollahs to stop launching rockets, and asks the Lebanese govt to deploy its troops in southern Lebanon, helped by a multinational force.
As soon as several thousand UN troops (including European countries) are there, Israel would have to be completely crazy to risk attacking !! Even the US would be forced to condamn them in the strongest of terms...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4785963.stm
UN Lebanon resolution
The text of Resolution 1701

1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;

israel has consider all it operation in lebanon as defensive, so it leaves open the door for them to conduct more so called "defensive" operations.

 

[contedicavour]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4785963.stm
UN Lebanon resolution
The text of Resolution 1701

1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;

israel has consider all it operation in lebanon as defensive, so it leaves open the door for them to conduct more so called "defensive" operations.

Ok I see your point. The resolution leaves space for ambiguities. However Israel would be crazy to jeopardize whatever international support it currently has by running operations that might hurt UN-authorized European troops in southern Lebanon. Good sense should prevail (for the moment it does...)

cheers

 

[swerve]

If we don't get anything clearer than the mission & ROEs of UNIFIL 1, then we would be very stupid to send over troops. In theory our government will not commit troops unless the mandate is (i) agreed by all sides to the conflict and (ii) allows for disarmament and strong auto-defence if attacked. Please note I said "in theory"

cheers

Some of the potential providers of troops want a force under UN authority (i.e. approved by the UN), but not under UN command. I'm not sure what sort of command setup they actually want. Probably a French HQ, since they have all that's needed in terms of infrastructure & organisation, with officers from the other contingents included, as liaison at least. Since a few NATO members have offered, perhaps a French HQ with the other NATO members integrated, & liaison officers from other forces.

Should be quicker off the mark than a UN HQ, but the RoEs & mandate must be right for even the best-led force to stand a chance of success.