URGENT- Syria and Israel

[Rich]

The last time Zahal faced the Syrians in Lebanon it worked not so well for the Israelis.
But I agree that nowadays the Syrians are not as good as they were in the past.

Not only that but there is no more Soviet Union to pay the bills and send the equipment, just like there is no more Pan-Arabism to send bodies, pay the bills, and give support. The Arabs with the money probably hate and distrust the Syrians even more then the Israelis do. And again Syria is surrounded by hostile or unfriendly enemies. Including, most of all, a Yank military juggernaut that if in tandem with the Israelis was launched against them......would completely destroy them as a Political entity.

Assad son of Assad knows all this all to well. He understands he's only in power at the whim of his enemies, and their willingness to take casualties. Assad has limits as to how far hes willing to let Hezbollah go. Iran has farther limits because they are in a stronger position, but even they can count the beans and must know a full scale war would destroy them. Besides Syria will have the final word to the extent of Hezbollah operations. Geographically they are in position to limit them more then Iran is.

 

[rahulb]

Syria and Israel Harakiri again

A syrian attack or entry into the conflict will be pure harakiri for it. Agreed the Syrian forces know the terrain and the Lebanese terrain is suitable for any delaying tactics, but if my understanding of the situation and israeli military tactics is correct, then israeli special forces are already operating in Lebanon, seccuring the areas of interest and directing the air strikes, some body please correct me. In that case Syrian forces are in for a massacre, espeically since they have not been in good shape lately. thanks. rahul

 

[fylr71]

In regard to Syria moving troops and equipment closer Israel this is highly unlikely at this stage. The way I see it is that unless Israel actually goes in and re-occupies Lebanone (which could be possible as recent news reports suggent Israeli equipment & supplies are moving north) there is no strategic or plausable reasons for Syria to risk their defence forces.

Although in a worse case scenario if Israel were to re-occupy Lebanone, and Syria was to get involved (which may encourage Iran involve itself). The outcome that may materialise could be that along similar lines as the 'The day war'?

Another aspect is world opinion. If Syria launches an unporvoked first strike on Israel world opinion would quickly turn against Syria. Plus if Iran sent any troops or aid to Syria it (Iran) would give the security council the perfect excuse to begin bombing. Israel would quickly retailiate and annihilate Syria without any protest from the world, then the US, EU, Japan, and possibly others would probably be able to convince the Chinese and Russians to support an attack on Iran.

 

[rahulb]

Iran - Proxy Power

Iran is unlikely to directly enter into the imbroglio just yet. It has two layered proxies, Hezbollah and Syria, it would prefer to act through them rather than enter itself. Essentially it will provide missile and other firepower to the Hezbollah and Syrian forces and remain on the side lines

 

[icelord]

Syria may not on paper have the ability to stop the IDF but, the problem is, if the IDF roled through Syria, took damascus, then what? Job well done, lets go home, or annex syria(lol, that would be interesting on the world stage). The key concern is, will Isreal really get what they want, lets remember the reason they were in Lebanon all those yrs ago, to stop the Palastinians. The outcome- Hezzbollah. Don't get me wrong, unlike every opinion page in the papers, i respect Israels right to do all it can to protect itself, the problem is, how the bl**dy hell do you do that?
Syria could have the backing and support of the entire Arab league(which it will never get unless Israel nuke Damascus) but, they still have to consider that, for every action has a opposite and equal re-action. This could be in the form of the US coming to the aid of Israel, "Syria is protecting its ally Hezzbollah, the US is protecting its Ally Israel". Surely they would not be so stupid, even if world opinion turned against the US, that would not help Syria in any way.
Also, If the Syrians were rolling up to the border, The UN would know about it. The UN is stuck in the middle of Syria and Israel, and they are very bad at keeping anything secret( except kickbacks- owwww)

Another aspect is world opinion. If Syria launches an unporvoked first strike on Israel world opinion would quickly turn against Syria. .

If Syria were silly enough to invade (lets keep an open mind here, they may be) then the world would have no option but to support Israel, and vice versa.

Iran i see as the bogey team, they have no real reason to get mixed up, as pointed out, they would have their reactors bombed "to prevent them using nukes of couse".

Even if, say anything like this happened, what next. Wait for nukes to wipe everything away. Its a whole new MAD scenario for the 21st century, no ones game to attack because the result is nuts. Israel would not even be so stupid, and neither would Syria

I'm Icelord, Goodnite and Goodluck

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

The key concern is, will Isreal really get what they want, lets remember the reason they were in Lebanon all those yrs ago, to stop the Palastinians. The outcome- Hezzbollah. Don't get me wrong, unlike every opinion page in the papers, i respect Israels right to do all it can to protect itself, the problem is, how the bl**dy hell do you do that?

This seems to be the whole problem in the middle east today. Every action just feeds a more violant reaction. And no action at all seems to just embolden your enemies. I agree that Isreal has every right to defend herself by stiking at Hizbollah targets in lebanon and that in some cases these might be in built up areas (i herd something about underground arms factories and katusha storage bunkers in southern Beruit???). But i'm not sure what sort of long term results that striking these targets will achieve. Shure Hizbollah's offensive capabillity may have been severely dissupted for the next 12 months, but as long as these groups have external funding from Isreals enemies (Syria/Iran) and a steady flow of recruits (which will probably be even less of a problem now) these attacks are only going to get worse or take annother form. And the thing I really dont understand is the targeting of civllian infestructure ???(i herd that the airport and transport system had been attacked, correct me if i herd wrong) Apart from the moral/humanitarian issues of striking civilian targets this action just seems to be counterproductive. If the motive behind striking these targets is to pressure the regular Lebonese army into occupieing southern lebanon and replacing the Hizbollah millitia, it doesn't make much sense to degrade civilian infistructure to a point where the Lebonese state itself could collapse. This would be a perfect opportunity for the Syrian army to move back in, which would resolve Hizbollah's supply situation. And stiking these targets is just going to have a negitive effect on international public oppinion, and i dont think it's going to get their boys released. To be honnest i dont see the wisdom of Isreals actions in this situation. Don't get me wrong they have every right to do what they've done, i just think its counterproductive.

By the way the massive reaction seems to be a bit suss to me, it looks like they've had a long target list compiled for a while and were just waiting for an opportunity to decemate Hizbollah??? I'm just stabbing in the dark here

 

[icelord]

And the thing I really dont understand is the targeting of civllian infestructure ???(i herd that the airport and transport system had been attacked, correct me if i herd wrong) Apart from the moral/humanitarian issues of striking civilian targets this action just seems to be counterproductive. If the motive behind striking these targets is to pressure the regular Lebonese army into occupieing southern lebanon and replacing the Hizbollah millitia, it doesn't make much sense to degrade civilian infistructure to a point where the Lebonese state itself could collapse. This would be a perfect opportunity for the Syrian army to move back in, which would resolve Hizbollah's supply situation. And stiking these targets is just going to have a negitive effect on international public oppinion, and i dont think it's going to get their boys released. To be honnest i dont see the wisdom of Isreals actions in this situation. Don't get me wrong they have every right to do what they've done, i just think its counterproductive.

By the way the massive reaction seems to be a bit suss to me, it looks like they've had a long target list compiled for a while and were just waiting for an opportunity to decemate Hizbollah??? I'm just stabbing in the dark here

The road to syria u could understand blowing that up, no "immediate" supplies and no way out for not just the people, but also hezzbollah(although doubtful they'd do a runner). I believe the intent for infrastructure was "shock and awe" although it was 1/3 what was normal in these attacks. The Airport and other bits such as the army was an attack on the Govt. for what Israel believes did little to stop the situation.

As most people know, when Israel makes a list, they don't need to check it twice, as they know whose naughty, and they won't be nice. Mossad and Aman are very very good at what they do. Mossad is at the point of legendary status for their "operation wrath of god". These guys don't just kill u, they kill ur family and friends, as well as work mates They have lists for every country around them, and bring it out the second war is declared,

I'm icelord, goodmorning and goodluck

 

[atilla]

what will happen next?

we are not spose to talk polıtıcs but we all speak closley syrıa has longest border whıt turkey and ıraq remember the tensıons few years before between turkey and syrıa because of a terrorıst leader assumed to be ın damascus never mınd that was solved between that states then new era startted ..... where ıs mıddle east ıs goıng? ın realıty goıng for good??? goıng for peace????? goıng for more freedom????lets remember ıraq now is better_???? or more peacefull??? lets say ısrael come tıll damascus questıon ıs then ???? lets say Iran dıdnt stand whıth syrıa ( probably ıf that senarıo happens ıran woud not ınterefier ) like ın the past (iran wıll never actually take step ın the fıeld agaınst Israel or USA ) then? what ıs left??? may be some one left but all these thıngs wont brıng peace ın mıdeast they need to comunıcate they need to talk they need to start tradıng better economıc relatıons what ıs peace ? or what ıs terrorısm ???? or who kıdnapped those 3 soldıers and why????? ısrael says 15000 mıssıles was fıred by hammas or what ever how come so much mıssıles ?? or ıs ıt mıssıles lıke fıreworks???? ok stıll not good but that also seems strange .thıs story ı thınk ıs lıke chaın we come back where we start names dıfferent weapons dıfferent flags dıfferent faces dıfferent but story ıs same

 

[shadow_crescent]

i read the news in yahoo just now.. n looks like the israel army is marching towards the south of labenon n from what i read, they really are serious bout it (with the flatened house bombing etc etc mayb 2 squeeze out the hezbollah.. ) ... hey did any peace corps around there 2 control the situiation ???? if the israelis march n march till when they will stop is it till damascus lol?.. if they want 2 stop the hezbollah 2 accuire weaponary surely the must secure the north border of labenon 2 stop syria or maybe iran giving the hezbollah weaponary.if not the situation in the future ( assuming the israelis control half of labenon if not invade) is the same in iraq nowadays..with the iraqi militant still can giv a headache 2 iraqi goverment..

 

[fantasma]

if israelis march in a large scale and to deep in south of Lebanon they might have trouble of their right front. i guess they are gathering forces to secure their flanks and to let the flee to as many as possible civilians and the "real" war :gun (air bombardments artillery will devastate every single building) maybe will start by the end of the week

 

[renjer]

So, there is no Syrian attack after all? However, there appears to be an Israeli attack into Lebanon. Does anyone think the Israelis will extend their ground campaign into Syria?

 

[Sea Toby]

I don't think Israel will move on Syria unless Syria gets involved in Lebanon again, or shoot their longer ranged Scuds at Israel. Currently I see Israel using seige tactics against Hezbollah, not wishing to get bogged down in Lebanon again. As long as Israel is able to maintain a embargo and blockade of the country significantly enough to cause food, water, and medical supplies shortages, the Lebanonese and Hezbollah will crumble. Its gonna take some time for the seige to work, weeks possibly, but there will come a time when the food runs out. More than likely the food will run out before Hezbollah runs out of ammo. But what good is the ammo if you have already died of hunger?

Of course, to make the seige work, Israel will have to cut off any aid coming into the country. Israel may send in forces to quickly destroy weapon caches. Since Hezbollah has made the mistake of shooting off and exposing its large inventory of rockets, it won't be hard for Israel to claim any aid shipments attempting to get into Lebanon include weapons. Actually, Hezbollah's illegal independent state within a state undermines its position worldwide, especially outside the Muslim world. When you consider that the rest of the world don't have the inventory of Hezbollah's rockets, including Lebanon itself, you'll notice the rest of the world is shocked by this illegal state within a state. America included. Instead of winning world opinion, their terrorist tactics have rallied the rest of the world against them.

Hezbollah's rocket attacks are hitting Israel, ad hoc, in an unmilitary manner, a very large percentage of the rockets hitting civilian sites. Frankly, while the Palestinians wish to push Israel into the sea, their military tactics have lost the strategic war. Even the nation of Lebanon is shocked by Hezbollah's illegal state within a state. Muslims must learn to wage war using Western tactics if success is their objective. Otherwise, they lose world opinion outside Muslim states.

Its the same with Iraq. Every nation wished to leave Iraq as soon as possible, including America. However, the Iraqis themselves cannot drop their guns and weapons long enough for us to do so. While Arabs may think America will cut and run, most Americans won't. The inability of the Muslim world to compromise or be tolerant of others is why the bulk of today's wars are in Muslim nations, from the west coast of Africa to Indonesia.

Mod edit: A bit of flaming there mate. I don't need to tell you to take it easy, just take this as a reminder. Cheers. AD.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

i doubt it. they wouldn't want to escelate the situation that much. Right now i'm watching some pictures of destroyed housing blocks, which cant be looking to good for public opinion. And i dont think they need to. their main objective seems to be to destroy hizbollah in southern Lebanon and push them back beyond katusha range of northen isreal. So escelating this to a "full scale" war against a well armed nation seems pretty unlikely.

Sea Toby i dont think that the Isrealies are going to cut off food supplies to residential areas of southern Lebanon! All of their actions can only go on as long as the international community, and the U.S. speciffically, allows it. Starving out Hizbollah, and tens of thoousands of Lebonese civilians with them isnt going to look to good on CNN.

i just heard 3 Isrealie troops have been killed in a firefight. looks like things are heating up!

 

[Sea Toby]

I don't think Israel wishes to starve everyone to death, just starve them enough to have shortages and allow their enemy to rethink their poor tactical and strategic situation, in other words, to run up the white flag! That is what seige tactics are all about.

Sinking one warship or shooting down one aircraft is not a tactical or strategic victory. And that's about the best Hezbollah can do.

Hezbollah took an aggressive move, seizing hostages and killing border guard soldiers. Otherwise they have responded to Israel's embargo and blockade by firing rockets into Northern Israel. This response will not get them to Tel Aviv. Anything less is a tactical and strategic loss.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

The inability of the Muslim world to compromise or be tolerant of others is why the bulk of today's wars are in Muslim nations, from the west coast of Africa to Indonesia. Its a mistake to think that Allah is greater than our God!

Damn right!!! There's far too much fundimentalism and intollerance in the Muslim world! fair enogh most educated muslims are tollerant but the majority of major conflic's in the world today are waged under the name of Allah. The dangerouse thing is the beliefe of many muslims that Islam is the one true faith and all other religions are enemies.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

I don't think Israel wishes to starve everyone to death, just starve them enough to have shortages and allow their enemy to rethink their poor tactical and strategic situation, in other words, to run up the white flag! That is what seige tactics are all about.

Sinking one warship or shooting down one aircraft is not a tactical or strategic victory. And that's about the best Hezbollah can do.

Hezbollah took an aggressive move, seizing hostages and killing border guard soldiers. Otherwise they have responded to Israel's embargo and blockade by firing rockets into Northern Israel. This response will not get them to Tel Aviv. Anything less is a tactical and strategic loss.

The same strategic situation could be suffered by the Isrealies. This could be a major tactical victory but the fact is that such drastic and violant actions are going to loose middle palistinian opinion and is only going to make a great recruiting video. Long term actions like this without the appropriate "hearts & minds" campaign is just going to end in strategic defeat, like the U.S. in Vietnam. (i know that these situations are allmost compleatly different exept from the wuestion of international, local civilian and public opinion.)

 

[sharjeel]

better safe then sorry,

syria ofcourse would logicaly mobilise its forces in a defencinve position against isrealis.

but also as the current situation dictates the syrian forces are split between their eastern and western flank as any attack on syria might involve US moving in from their east.

so it is basic mobilisation of forces i bet, nothing much.

 

[sharjeel]

The only real ace in the hole Syria has is there missile batteries, which include Chems and probably Bios. Looking at the the balance and terrain Syria would be incapable of defending Damascus against an Israeli armored enveloping attack. Israel holds the high ground in the Golan and their artillery would be a serious problem for the Syrians. Between that and the IAF dominating the air the outcome is academic.

Syria couldn't hope for resupply because they are surrounded by unfriendly countries, or, by the Yanks in Iraq. A big part of the reason the Iranians put their Hizbullah puppets up to all this is out of fear and frustration because things are going south for them both on the World/Nuke/Diplomatic front and the Geo-military front. Uninformed Americans can say what they want about George Bush but his policies are working. Iran and Syria are being squeezed and isolated by the flanking of Yank/Allied forces in Iraq, Afghanistan, peripheral countries, and alliances with regional countries. Both Iran and Syria "most of all Iran" want to regain initiative while manipulating the media into covering the evil American/Jew conspiracy instead of terrorism and Iranian nuclear development and hegemony. Really for Iran its win-win.

And this is a fairly cheap and safe way to do it, putting up their terror puppets to causing trouble in Lebanon. Most of all if they up the ante by supplying more advanced weaponry and missiles.

Sorry If I touched on politics.

you my dearest sound almost like Anthony Eden from 1956.

 

[sharjeel]

Syria:
Manpower fit for military service:
Definition Field Listing
males age 18-49: 3,453,888
females age 18-49: 3,421,558 (2005 est.)

Iran:
Manpower fit for military service:
Definition Field Listing
males age 18-49: 15,665,725
females age 18-49: 15,005,597 (2005 est.)

let us for just for assumption remove the females...this gives us a grand total of 19,119,613 man power fit for service. compared to israels 3 million (including the wemon).

are you guys certain that the israelis will win?

 

[sharjeel]

If syria attacks or is attacked by any one iran steps into the war and vice versa.

as for world support, do not excite your selfs chaps,

the world support is fully against israel at the moment and if the syrians do decide to attack keeping in mind their hugely inferior technology, they will gain even more support from the muslim world at the least. we might not be much, but we are 1.4 billion and israel is 6 million.

think again. not even uncle sam, is willing to confront 1.4 billion muslims all at once, as this would mean: oil embargo, trade via suez shutdown, intel and amd processors from indonesia and malaysia embargo....will your economy be able to sustain this? well no.....


but if i come back down to earth and onto reality, ofcourse those embargoes will not happen, but what will happen is 1.4 billion muslims will start supporting the freedom strugles in iraq, lebanon, palestine and afganistan. regardles of the alienation that might have been between mainstream islam and terrorists.


in light of the improved media these days, if the cards are right, any attack by syria on israel and all its might, is enough to tople governments!