Sure in 5-10 years they wont be quite there - in 15-20 that is entirely a different matter.
The sheer growth expansion in the Indian economy and the cross border trade is essentially the next main driver in the global shipping market to meet requirements. Where do you think India (which is starting to surpass China in annual growth rates and doubling its productive outputs every decade) is going to go to meet the demand for shipping that it is in itself generating?.
Not really a Kiwi-themed question so if we continue the discussion, perhaps we should move it to a more appropriate India-themed thread.
Over the last five years or so, the top four ship building countries by tonnage are China (PRC), S. Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. Per the 2017 world shipbuilding gross tonnage numbers from the
UN, these four countries account for over 93% of the new shipping tonnage built. India is 17th on the list in terms of gross tonnage built in 2017, or about 0.14% of the tonnage built in 2017. The fifth place country by tonnage, Romania, produced over six times the shipping tonnage that India did. Even if India were to double the shipping production, that would not exceed the amount produced by the 11th place country on the list, the US.
Now yes, over time India could certainly expand the shipbuilding production capacity as well as expand domestic design capabilities and improve QC. However shipbuilding is an infrastructure, workforce and capitally intensive capability that is also cyclical in nature. Absent a directive and support from the Indian gov't to drastically expand production, or domestic Indian shipping needs not being met by overseas yards, I do not really see India having a significant jump in capability. Having looked at info for S. Korea, I think tripling of production over a decade's time, provided of course there are sufficient orders or resources to justify such an expansion, might be possible. However, even if India's production capacity tripled it would still be less than that of Vietnam
From a cost perspective which would likely influence exports, I suspect India would be hard pressed to beat either the Philippines or Vietnam. Both have comparable per capita GDP (PPP) but significantly greater production capacity which enables an economy of scale and IIRC they have been expanding their production capabilities after some buyers have started shifting to lower costing production than China.
With the India economy rapidly expanding, I would expect that there is going to start being a greater push for improvements in pay and/or quality of life. If the skilled trades required for shipyard operations start getting increased wages, that would likely negatively impact the ability of work from Indian shipyards to be priced competitively.
Of course complete warship production is an even more specialized capability, with even greater involvement by gov't, but as already mentioned the current amalgamation of Euro, Israeli and Russian systems would likely be unacceptable to other countries unless they are non-aligned. For incomplete warships/hulls, then the likely ability of the shipyards of other countries to outproduce India with likely comparable production costs would lead to the work being sent elsewhere.
