Subs in JMSDF service have a reputation for being able to dive and engage nuke boats at depth. RAN subs similarly have reputations for being able to operate im enviros usually considered nuke boat territory. AIP is IMO more applicable to littoral ops, as it can allow lurking in an area with a minimal indiscretion rate. It does not provide for high power output, which is something which seems useful vs. nuke boats operating at depth.
Pollies perform to get re-elected, regardless of political stripe. The root cause of our disgraceful defence situation is our pathetic electorate which doesn't care about defence. Until this changes, or massive external pressure from our allies is applied, I see <1% of GDP forever. That amount doesn't get us 15 new surface combatants or much of anything else.
I'll just speak to the Vancouver island and adjacent British Columbia coast natural hazards issue. There have been some significant earthquakes generated in the region, including Alaska, that have caused significant damage on shore but also have generated destructive tsunami. The last significant one was the 1964 Alaskan quake.
Certainly a major quake could cause immense damage to the three main population areas in BC, Victoria, Vancouver, and the lower Fraser Valley. While an amphibious capability would be beneficial for Victoria, it would be minimally useful for the mainland. It is unlikely that road and rail access would be blocked from both the eastern Canada and the US south. Abbotsford airport up the Fraser Valley is only about 50 km from the coast and their are numerous airports in Washington State which are away from the coast.
LHDs have zero chance. Perhaps some kind of large multi-purpose vessel with roll-on roll-off capability for HADR missions could be managed but positioning the ship on the vulnerable West coast could be a hard sell in Eastern Canada. Hurricane relief missions from Halifax would be more frequent IMO which means a ship on each coast. That 1.5-2 billion dollars, money which I am sure the RCN would rather see spent on fighting ships.
Isn't Canada leading the Latvian NATO battle group? Seeing off Russia?
Canada is sending light armoured vehicles and 450 troops to Latvia. It would be better upgrade this commitment somewhat and forget about Mali.
I know realistic the RCN would much prefer having the fighting arm of their fleet to be well funded (not that I do not); however is it really necessary for us to have such a large surface fleet? I just do not see a realistic threat that would require Canada to maintain such a large fleet right now (15 front-line combatant hulls). The Red Fleet will not be surging through the Atlantic any time soon. Yes the Russian Northern Fleet is a problem but they would first have to get through the RN, the Danish, Norwegian, Dutch, and French navies first before we would have to worry about it. This is not even including the American Navy.
A point you seem to keep missing is that a fleet of 15 frigates/destroyers is not especially large. Particularly when you factor in the maritime area and approaches to Canada, and then include maintenance and training cycles in addition to the operational cycles.
Just one thing i would like to ask. How reliant is Canada on Sea trade out of Asia both in Imports & exports? With the growing tensions in the South China Sea area the RCN may be asked in the future to help keep these sea lanes open and that is going to rely on a strong Frigate/Destroyer Force.
If you want 2 FFGH to be on the Atlantic ready to go the rule of 3 says you need 6 to cater for training and maintenance. If the same is needed on the west coast you need 6 there as well. I just defined a fleet of 12 boats so that 2, just 2, are available on each coast all of the time. 12 is not a big fleet, it is the absolute minimum to maintain 2 main fleet units on task on each coast. The fact that the Canadian political climate/bean counters will not support the bare minimum required is the issue.
It seems to me that Russia and Canada will soon find themselves in direct competition in the Arctic (if they aren't already) and no other country stands in their way in that area. So saying that other countries stand in their way is not really thinking about the possibilities (let alone the lack of collective spirit in such an approach)
There complacent because "the good times will never end" unfortunately in their (the electorate and political class) minds. In regards to the Northern Pacific and Canada elector apathy towards collective spirit I totally agree.
In short not a lot, something like 80 to 85 percent of our trade is through the USA. The vast majority oils flows from the Mid East westwards transiting either the Suez or Cape Horn, the remainder is produced here. Foodstuff is practically all North American (Canada, America, Mexico collectively) outside of speciality goods. Most trade through the Pacific/ Indian Oceans are commercial and household goods.
Indeed, and lets not forget the rule of three and Canada's treaty obligations. Ships will be deployed overseas, some will be protecting Canada, and others will be in maintenance. A fleet of 15 surface combatants is a bare minimum, insufficient really.
Canada's trade with Asia is much too low because of our over reliance on US/Mexico trade. It is a huge missed opportunity. If we were developing trade relations properly in Asia, absolutely a more robust RCN would be needed.
Couldn't agree more.
Two points, one the complacency comes from being next to a superpower. Two, if you have a strong enough stomach, read some Canadian media defence articles and then the read comments from our electorate on those articles. It will be very apparent how FU this country really is.:flaming
Me too.
All very true but that hasn't stopped the Russians from holding extensive exercises in the Arctic. They are expanding bases and introducing Arctic specific kit.
For now yes, but there worrying signs that polar melting could accelerate beyond current predications. An Arctic that is ice free for 5-8 months is a huge opportunity for resource starved or greedy competitors. With our minimal presence, the Canadian Arctic is up for grabs and it isn't only China and Russia (think south).