6th Generation Fighters Projects

koxinga said:
Now the German government might think like you and me, but the unions don't, and I doubt they (Airbus/Germany industry) care about Japan's security considerations either.
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Sure. But German unions don't get a say in the matter - they have no leverage over Japan. Nor does Germany for that matter.

The issue isn't that members shouldn't be posting about Airbus' ambitions, it's more that we shouldn't be giving them any credence by suggesting the subject is up for discussion. It's like playing fantasy fleets on the navy sub-forum, it's not helpful.

I appreciate I am putting myself out there by being so firm that the contract won't be reopened, but sometimes there is no news and it's ok not to post for a lengthy period of time. I don't think that Airbus trying to wrangle itself a share of an existing contract is news if there's no realistic prospect of it getting it.

I think a better question would be how would Berlin sell to voters and unions a GCAP purchase on assumption there won't be a big share of the overall work. Exaggerate the benefits of final local assembly? German companies getting a minor contract to supply the wider project? An EU-based maintenance centre in case other member states buy GCAP?
 
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Musashi_kenshin said:
Sure. But German unions don't get a say in the matter - they have no leverage over Japan. Nor does Germany for that matter.

The issue isn't that members shouldn't be posting about Airbus' ambitions, it's more that we shouldn't be giving them any credence by suggesting the subject is up for discussion. It's like playing fantasy fleets on the navy sub-forum, it's not helpful.

I appreciate I am putting myself out there by being so firm that the contract won't be reopened, but sometimes there is no news and it's ok not to post for a lengthy period of time. I don't think that Airbus trying to wrangle itself a share of an existing contract is news if there's no realistic prospect of it getting it.

I think a better question would be how would Berlin sell to voters and unions a GCAP purchase on assumption there won't be a big share of the overall work. Exaggerate the benefits of final local assembly? German companies getting a minor contract to supply the wider project? An EU-based maintenance centre in case other member states buy GCAP?
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A meaningful German entry into GCAP seems improbable at this late stage. Whether a Germany-Spain-Sweden effort happens, maybe. Sweden was briefly involved with GCAP at the start but decided GCAP wasn't right for their airforce (I assume). Can't see a reborn FCAS being any more attractive. CCA and an enhanced Grippen could be Sweden's future path....just my two cents though.
 
John Fedup said:
Was i ever realistic that Airbus and Daussault get on the same page? Was Berlin any worse than Paris wrt to FCAS blowing up? (just asking, I have no idea).
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Dassault is a difficult partner to work with, but it was Airbus (the german part of Airbus) to abandon the project. The german government tried to save the program, but Airbus is just too big. It feels like they did it on purpose, hoping that by blowing FCAS up they were going to convince the government to fund a new plane (so they would be able to get all the funds themselves). It is likely that they miscalculated.
 
SolarisKenzo said:
The german government tried to save the program, but Airbus is just too big. It feels like they did it on purpose, hoping that by blowing FCAS up they were going to convince the government to fund a new plane (so they would be able to get all the funds themselves). It is likely that they miscalculated.
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This is an arguments that few market analysts also pondering. Dasault now lead French to go their own, and Dasault/French also hinting out potential bring in Rafale export customer to join the program as Junior Partner. They have done the deal with UAE with Rafale F5 that basically make UAE as Junior Partner on the program. Some in market speculate if this goes smoothly, similar measure can be offer on French FCAS replacement program.

Could Airbus Military push German to finance them going alone ? This is that some speculate can happen if German can not get enough industrial share with GCAP. Question though, how big German themselves can provide the market size to make it economically viable. German record on making hard in few cases for export Euro Fighter, not showing they can get export orders as much as French historically done.
 
Ananda said:
Could Airbus Military push German to finance them going alone ? This is that some speculate can happen if German can not get enough industrial share with GCAP. Question though, how big German themselves can provide the market size to make it economically viable. German record on making hard in few cases for export Euro Fighter, not showing they can get export orders as much as French historically done.
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Airbus isn't really setup to do everything itself, and the cost would be huge, or the output very compromised.

Japan can't tolerate any more delay. It seems like Japan is pretty much already annoyed with its existing European partners, adding more - but less committed, European partners. Japan isn't interested in more partners, or making money. Its a capability they need that they can't get any other way, and their needs are immediately.

en.defence-ua.com

Japan Resists German Entry Into GCAP Sixth-Gen Fighter, Tokyo Tells London to Give Berlin Its Own Share | Defense Express

Chancellor Merz floats GCAP cooperation at summit with PM Takaichi, but Tokyo warns fourth partner would force work redistribution and delay 2035 target already slipping
en.defence-ua.com en.defence-ua.com

If the UK is struggling with funding, then give the Germans their share and get German money involved. Japans needs, capabilities and money. Japan isn't a Junior partner, its the main game.

Typical Euro defence foreplay will not be tolerated. There isn't time for 5+ years of nebulus defence dating. This was clear when this project was launched.
 
StingrayOZ said:
the UK is struggling with funding, then give the Germans their share and get German money involved. Japans needs, capabilities and money. Japan isn't a Junior partner, its the main game.
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Well seems Japan simply said that also. The work share already in agreement, so does the budget distribution. Thus if German want to come in, it will be the expense of other Euro Partners. The one that seems want to entertaint German wish to join is UK. Thus the workshare and budget distribution for German should take some of UK share. This basically makes UK and German become junior partners.
 
Ananda said:
The one that seems want to entertaint German wish to join is UK. Thus the workshare and budget distribution for German should take some of UK share. This basically makes UK and German become junior partners.
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Well if its rumored that UK, Japan took on 40% each, and italy 20%. It could make it UK/Germany 20%+20% and italy 20%. Japan 40%.

Japan is probably going to order twice as many as the UK. Their need is more urgent.

I don't think junior partners is the right word. All european nations would be equal partners, and Japan 40%. That would give EU nations 60% and Japan 40%.

But it would take huge burden off the UK in costs, Germany would sign up and bring in the real possibility of a 100+ plane order. Germany would have to live with it being a large, long range 6th gen fighter. Not some short range interceptor.

But I think the shortrange interceptor concept is dead. No one is flying fighter jets 100km into enemy territory anymore. Its all long range precision weapons striking directly at targets many hundreds if not thousand km away. It would give Germany proper deterrence and proper global capability. If Germany committed 100 plane order, the whole project becomes much more viable.

There may be some chance to increase speed of production and development, which the project urgently needs.
 
StingrayOZ said:
Germany would have to live with it being a large, long range 6th gen fighter. Not some short range interceptor.
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Japan seems see this as F-15J replacement as F-35A also begin taking over some F-2 function. They don't say it directly but I do see those F-35A as F-2 replacement, as F-35B will aim to provide naval cover aboard their 2 carriers.

Then as F-15J replacement, total order of 200+ GCAP will be in line with their need. As considering their situation, getting F-15J at one on one base will be priority for JSDF.

Thus German will have to decide whether GCAP on the class of F-15J meet their need. If all three Euro partners take 20% each, I do see also Japan will still drive the GCAP design purpose.
 
StingrayOZ said:
Well if its rumored that UK, Japan took on 40% each, and italy 20%. It could make it UK/Germany 20%+20% and italy 20%. Japan 40%.
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Would Germany really accept a 20% work share for GCAP? It walked away from a more generous share of work in FCAS. I think they'd likely demand a third or close to it. Also I don't know the UK would want to slash its work share by a lot, because its own unions would be angry about the job cuts and use its connections with the government to block it.

I really don't think there is a magic solution that lets Germany have a large guaranteed work share whilst not delaying the programme. Not least because German law still says that weapons manufactured on its territory can only be exported with the approval of the federal government, so they might have to change their law to be a full partner. Reportedly German defence officials have recommended Germany not join GCAP, in part because they'd have minimal influence in the project.

Japan has repeatedly said no to delays, and that's sort of it really. I think the real issue is that there are people who still can't believe Germany isn't involved in development of a future major fighter and that therefore the universe will need to reshape itself to make it happen.

(Also Italy has made noises about wanting another partner to spread out costs, it's not just the UK.)
 
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Musashi_kenshin said:
Would Germany really accept a 20% work share for GCAP? It walked away from a more generous share of work in FCAS. I think they'd likely demand a third or close to it. Also I don't know the UK would want to slash its work share by a lot, because its own unions would be angry about the job cuts and use its connections with the government to block it.

I really don't think there is a magic solution that lets Germany have a large guaranteed work share whilst not delaying the programme. Not least because German law still says that weapons manufactured on its territory can only be exported with the approval of the federal government, so they might have to change their law to be a full partner. Reportedly German defence officials have recommended Germany not join GCAP, in part because they'd have minimal influence in the project.

Japan has repeatedly said no to delays, and that's sort of it really. I think the real issue is that there are people who still can't believe Germany isn't involved in development of a future major fighter and that therefore the universe will need to reshape itself to make it happen.

(Also Italy has made noises about wanting another partner to spread out costs, it's not just the UK.)
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Germany walked away from a bigger share of a smaller project. The size of the cake affects the value of each slice. Same for the UK job share. A smaller share of a bigger cake can be the same size as a bigger share of a smaller cake. I think German law on exports is a harder thing to deal with, & of course potential delay, as you say. I agree with the lack of a magic solution.
 
Musashi_kenshin said:
I really don't think there is a magic solution that lets Germany have a large guaranteed work share whilst not delaying the programme. Not least because German law still says that weapons manufactured on its territory can only be exported with the approval of the federal government, so they might have to change their law to be a full partner. Reportedly German defence officials have recommended Germany not join GCAP, in part because they'd have minimal influence in the project.

Japan has repeatedly said no to delays, and that's sort of it really. I think the real issue is that there are people who still can't believe Germany isn't involved in development of a future major fighter and that therefore the universe will need to reshape itself to make it happen.

(Also Italy has made noises about wanting another partner to spread out costs, it's not just the UK.)
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If the Swedes are open to a large twin engine design, it would work. But that's a big if, given their FCAS renders suggest a single engine crewed option, much in line with their concept of operations.

The current stand still is because the priorities are not aligned; for Japan, the timeline is sacrosanct, while for EU members, I suspect they are flexible as long as industrial share and political alignment/harmony are achieved.

Re magic solution

The only option that comes to mind is Germany getting their hands on a licensed sub-variant or localized derivative of GCAP. Let the main GCAP program run unimpeded. Germany gets a license and replaces UK, Japanese or Italy components with their own if they want to. I mean, a Japanese GCAP might well be using IHI engines, while a UK version using RR, a German version can use a MTU Aero one if they want. They can increase the german/spanish content as much as they want to keep their unions happy. But no equal share at the consortium level or export options.

Similar to the F-2 program for Japan. Might well be cheaper than any clean sheet 6th generation by Team Gen 6 (german/spanish consortium).
 
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A new engine is a significant part of GCAP development, & from what I've read RR is leading it but with major contrbutions from IHI & Avio, in that order. Nobody wants to spend the billions needed to develop a new engine of the desired performance alone, & I don't think MTU has the resources to do it alone in a reasonable time. So, I don't see anyone wanting to put their own engine in it. I think they'll all want access to the finished product, & think it'll probably be better, & cheaper for everyone, than if they develop their own.

There are companies with particular expertise in all the current partner countries, & some of the division of labour appears to have been quickly agreed. Company A develops piece of equipment A, because it's best at that, company B leads one aspect of radar development while company B leads another, & so on. I suspect there's even some of that in engine development: even lesser players can have niche abilities.
 
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Japan learnt a lot with the F-2. What disaster for them, they were very disappointed.

If Germany wanted to be involved, they needed to get in earlier. It wasn't a secret program. This strategy of various European countries to not commit, then come in later, then dictate new terms, then leave, high euro drama. Its not helpful. If Germany was considering both programs, then they should have been in both programs.

The options are:

  • Germany accepts say half of the UK share - UK and Germany nut out the details. These are two large countries, offsets and counter acquisitions could be managed. Other programs etc. That is up to UK and Germany. They could do this. This may be a great opportunity for a joint UK German leadership - military and long horizon project. British and Germany is IMO, a better long term fit. Sure WW1 and WW2, but historically, Germans and Brits, get along. They both love annoying the french. The royal family is german. IMO this should be explored.
  • Germany buys GCAP fighters off the line zero German input. its a product, dick around and MOTS is whats on offer. You will wait behind Japan tho.
  • Germany develops it own 6th gen fighter or partners again with French or tries with the Swedes. Highly unlikely.
  • It acquires nothing. Entirely possible.

Ultimately I think Germany isn't committed enough. AfD doesn't want war with Russia, and thus may choose to cut back hugely on defence spending. I think germany isn't committed to a large 6th gen fighter.

Germany pulled back on its CCA program because it doesn't know if it can get the legal legislation in time which is the most german beurcratic thing in the history of time. Its ship building program is in more problems than the Americans, and the americans openly admit dumpster fire.
 
StingrayOZ said:
Japan learnt a lot with the F-2. What disaster for them, they were very disappointed.
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  • Germany accepts say half of the UK share - UK and Germany nut out the details. These are two large countries, offsets and counter acquisitions could be managed. Other programs etc. That is up to UK and Germany. They could do this. This may be a great opportunity for a joint UK German leadership - military and long horizon project. British and Germany is IMO, a better long term fit. Sure WW1 and WW2, but historically, Germans and Brits, get along. They both love annoying the french. The royal family is german. IMO this should be explored.
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Japan got a lot of industrial development from F-2, e.g. in developing the first operational fighter AESA radar.

50% of the UK share would be silly. Germany would have to get some of both the UK & Italian shares for any redistribution of work share to make sense.

And the British royal family isn't German. Charles's maternal grandmother was half-Scottish, half-English. His maternal grandfather's ancestry was largely German but also Austrian, Hungarian, & assorted others, & his male line ancestors have been British since 1714. His father had more German ancestry than anything else, but part Danish & part Russian & was born in England. IIRC his last German-born ancestor died before 1900.

The next king's mother was English, through & through - & so is his wife. How German do you think he feels?
 
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