I wonder if the higher percentage countries lack of toilets has anything to do with being part of the former Soviet Union.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #13,982
Wonder no more. Neither Romania nor Bulgaria were part of the former Soviet Union. And their percentages are higher than those in the Baltics, who were part of the USSR.
Bit of a technicality though as both operated as Soviet states under the Warsaw pact. Admittedly as a Canadian I always found it hard to know the difference.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #13,984
Continuing our overview of cities in the Donbas, here's some information about Krasnogorovka. Krasnogorovka, like Avdeevka, is a de-facto suburb of Donetsk, but it's own municipality. It had a population of ~23k before the war, with a large factory complex in the center, and rail line running through the town. Russian forces took the town in iirc July of 2024, or ~1.5 years ago. Today the town remains in ruins. The first video is from mid-last year. The second is from ~5 months ago. Allegedly the town will be rebuilt, but the person filming takes us first to the cemetery and the destroyed church, and then visits some houses. He repeatedly mentions that there could still be landmines, suggesting that UXO clearing likely hasn't been completed. The third video is a very short news segment from February of last year, according to which there are still 30 people living in Krasnogorovka. There is no power or water in the town. The last video is from Sept. of last year, it shows 3 current residents. They thank the Red Cross for fixing some roof leaks and putting in additional insulation into the houses. You can see the blue water tanks, and the boarded up window sections where the glass is missing. The locals state that they have gotten power in their neighborhood but can't afford heating bills, and are instead stocking up on firewood for the winter. They then call on Denis Pushilin (head of the DNR) for assistance, because the local government in Staromikhailovka doesn't have the resources to help them. The last video is just a neighborhood visit to some ruined buildings in Krasnogorovka from ~6 months ago. It does illustrate very well how overgrown everything is, and the fact that there are basically no signs of current habitation. The speaker does mention a crane doing debris clearing work, but I don't believe we actually see it in the video. Note 3 of the videos are from a single channel, a local resident from Krasnogorovka.
I think we can state that Krasnogorovka is effectively dead. Like Ugledar and Popasnaya there are some locals that are simply refusing to leave, but I suspect the majority of civilians from the town that remained were moved into temporary housing in Donetsk. I do think Krasnogorovka will get rebuilt. It's close to Donetsk city and far from the front lines. It also sits on a rail line. But I think it will be quite some time before we see any substantial changes here and it's unclear how many residents will actually want to return. Unlike Avdeevka where things are already moving quite actively, Krasnogorovka seems to be on the back burner for some reason. It's not obvious why, the two are similarly situated. Perhaps it was just the arbitrary decision to turn Avdeevka into temporary housing for civilians from other areas.
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yandex.kz
EDIT: Ukraine's counter-attack in the eastern Zaporozhye area is continuing. They've gained some more ground from the north, but seem to have reached the portion where Russian positions get denser. It remains to be seen if they can push through. Even as this is happening Russian forces are still pushing westward out of Gulyaypole, taking Zaliznichnoe, Staroukrainka, and Tsvetkovoe. This means the threat to Orekhov continues as Russian forces are moving towards Omel'nik.
I think we can state that Krasnogorovka is effectively dead. Like Ugledar and Popasnaya there are some locals that are simply refusing to leave, but I suspect the majority of civilians from the town that remained were moved into temporary housing in Donetsk. I do think Krasnogorovka will get rebuilt. It's close to Donetsk city and far from the front lines. It also sits on a rail line. But I think it will be quite some time before we see any substantial changes here and it's unclear how many residents will actually want to return. Unlike Avdeevka where things are already moving quite actively, Krasnogorovka seems to be on the back burner for some reason. It's not obvious why, the two are similarly situated. Perhaps it was just the arbitrary decision to turn Avdeevka into temporary housing for civilians from other areas.
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They were separate countries. While their foreign policy was still mostly subservient to the USSR, internally they were often very different. Romania in particular went their own way even in foreign policy. The USSR likely tolerated this because they were still anti-Western.
EDIT: Ukraine's counter-attack in the eastern Zaporozhye area is continuing. They've gained some more ground from the north, but seem to have reached the portion where Russian positions get denser. It remains to be seen if they can push through. Even as this is happening Russian forces are still pushing westward out of Gulyaypole, taking Zaliznichnoe, Staroukrainka, and Tsvetkovoe. This means the threat to Orekhov continues as Russian forces are moving towards Omel'nik.
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But Storm Shadow is air launched, potentially from >200km away. Every picture of it in Ukraine I've seen has been under an aeroplane.
AFAIK it's not been adapted for surface launch. That'd need integration of a booster & a launcher. And the damage to the submaine in dock doesn't look like a near miss: it looks exactly like you'd expect from a direct hit. The BROACH warhead is a penetrator, with a shaped-charge precursor (like a very big HEAT warhead, capable of penetrating about 4 metres of reinforced concrete or a significant amount of armour) to punch a hole which the main charge then flies through, exploding inside the target. The main hole looks as if some of the internal explosion has vented out through the initial hole, widening it. I'd expect that.
Or did you mean a different sub?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #13,986
Two different subs. The one we've been talking about, the one that was not moving for a while but then recently moved in Novorossiysk was damaged by an unmanned boat. The one hit by the Storm Shadow was a couple of years back, in Crimea.
Compared to west European countries Russia's median age is depressed by long-standing high mortality among middle-aged & what one might call "early old" people, especially men. Life expectancy of Russian men is 7.2 years less than Turkish men. Women are only 0.9 years behind. Compared to the UK, Russian men & women are 11.7 & 4.2 years worse off. Only Moldova's worse than Russia, in Europe. But Russian infant mortality isn't bad. Not very much above the EU average.
Ah. My mistake.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I would consider the following question: do you think I follow whatever the handle is account and came along -insert post- because of it or just randomly browse twitter feed for to find (or confirm?) some wild narrative?
What about this dude or several other members of the US Congress who also talked about these grotesque stats (in addition to the article itself):
Stubb, Rutte, Healey, and nunerous others talking about 35,000 Russian troops killed in one month? Imminent collapse of the Russian economy we have been awaiting for nearly 4 yers now? Half a million (or whatever it is followers), policy advisor, etc, a very smart in general (see the date of the post) and this message, while having gone through adjustments, is articulated today and has been for four nearly years on almost daily basis:
Crimean beaches by the summer of 2023? Invasion of Chechnya by Russia, twice? Russian aggression and invasion of Georgia in 2008? Russians fighting with shovels since 2022-23? Stealing toilets? Ghosts of Kyiv? Snake Island? The following, from dear Bloomberg again?
Or maybe this, from the defence editor of The Telegraph and he either already have will write an article on the subject:
Examples are plentiful, daily routine.
Taman stuff I mentioned in my previous post? Bloomberg, PBS, etc are not marginal outlets with a few thousand followers. In fact, the entire “energy campaign” by Ukraine (especially pre-August of last year), while mostly hitting fuel tanks and other assets of little or no relevance but “causing great pain” on Russian war efforts? It’s all a waste of time and resources, a clown show for the unsuspecting audience. I would say ignorant audience, but it is not exactly ignorance because who really knows what port in Russia exports what or Belgorod’s significance to the Russian MIC and the like? Hardly anyone, so they rely on the media and expert opinion (many nowadays rely on random (and selective) posts from the echo chamber of social media)), which the media often provides without citing any actual experts (they are being the expert because of the expectation of the information being vetted and deemed to be reliable before being published).
How many people who spoke at the recent Munich Security Conference talked about the Russian economic collapse, losing the war strategically and otherwise, not being a threat (but also being a threat), gazillion losses, and so on?
None of what I post is some targeted sampling. For instance, the Su-34 post cited in my previous post, while more of a joke (as far as my intent is concerned), somehow made it into my feed four times yesterday and the day before, combined. So let’s do a bit of a layman analysis. My feed is rather narrow and limited to the individuals (or organizations) I follow, which probably stands at around 200. Of those, likely about a quarter is dedicated to economics, game theory, and math, another chunk dedicated to history, etc - what I mean here is those are mostly academic type fellows that (a) do not have a habit of posting daily and (b) either never or hardly ever comment on the war at hand with some exceptions (because that is their thing). The remaining people are military analysts (established fellows from various organizations, not random “experts”), journalists (mostly western with Ukraine and Russia specialization, which is why they are followed), a few level-headed Ukrainians, including currently or until relatively recently serving in the UA armed forces (these latter two have been added after the invasion, along with about half of the military analysts), a couple of decent news aggregators, a few commentators that I find interesting, a couple of China experts, a few on the Middle East, etc. In other words, it is not easy to get into my feed. There were others who got in for one reason or another, but were disposed of over time for lack of post quality. I am very tolerant of varying opinions and I am sure (hope?) most here would attest to that, even if they strongly disagree with mine.
So one of the four was a simple repost of a tweet that talked about the post, another (weirdly) trying to figure out where it happened (strike one for the author and he is on the potential cutting list now as a result), two basically calling nonsense. I just looked, out of curiosity, that post has been viewed over 260,000 times and directly reposted over 800 times so far. Note, that neither of the four that made it into my feed were direct reposts, but involved other posts talking about it. In other words, the actual repost number is likely in the (high) thousands or (low) tens of thousands and even more when you include screenshot posting, etc. Of course, there are also Facebook and YouTube links referenced in the post itself, where the exposure is likely higher. I would bet money there is a Reddit post on the subject, as well as multiple threads on BlueSky, and other social media platforms (none of which I follow). Of course, there are likely (guaranteed, I would say) multiple threads on this very nonsense on X itself. So the exposure is quite significant, whether you believe it or not (tens of millions, easily, in my somewhat educated opinion). In fact, I am absolutely certain that the nonsensical post had a much higher exposure than the well-sourced and established analyst Rob Lee’s post I also made a reference to. For the sake of sanity (on my part, lol) I looked at the stats for Rob’s post: over 132,000 views and 204 reposts. I highly doubt Rob has active Facebook, BlueSky (maybe?), and Reddit accounts, or a YouTube channel. But! And there is a big one: Rob had cited a Bloomberg article, that was probably also cited by numerous others aside from the direct audience/subscribers. Having the “big but” in place, I would still propose that the epic nonexistent shoot down of a Su-34 news had been seen by and left impression to more eyes and heads than a (somewhat) reasonable assessment cited by Rob Lee. It is just the nature of the game.
Now let’s consider the Taman port strikes and the epic fight on the critical nodes of Russian energy exports. How many people have seen that theme worldwide from likely thousands of similar posts on various social media platforms, articles in traditional media outlets (here comes Bloomberg again that originally posted it), a couple of which I cited, and so on? Then, the tweet I referenced from the Russian Oil and Gas Monitor fella (an actual expert who one actually would want to talk to on the subject), who has only a few hundred followers on X and a (very informative) Substack account with a paid subscription. His post was viewed a couple of hundred times with a single digit repost count (probably all mostly by people who already knew about it anyway). Of course, there is also an article or two, which are rather also specialized, on the subject of Taman having little to no relationship to the “critical nodes” as far as energy exports are concerned. However, repeated strikes on a port that is involved in the grain and fertilizer exports could leave a sour taste in some mouths and add yet another obstacle to the whole narrative of “we are different”. Clearly, reality does not stand a chance in this case.
So there is certainly a circus narrative, not shaped by me or one I am looking for. It is simply there, told by officials, amplified by media and profiteers and lemmings on socials. Here is another example, not only of ridiculous narrative (that was also repeated by Zelensky today), but also the same stuff being posted by multiple accounts:
An example of how I come along this stuff and how it shows up in me feed:
I follow Foreman. Now imagine being a Foreign Minister like Radek Sikorski and thinking that not only Ukraine was provided with some security guarantees, but also that France was one of the signatories! Yet, you are talking to me about some random low-credibility sampling I presumably rely on to form an opinion.
Speaking Foreman and since the clown of the forum has raised his idiotic stuff again regarding Russia, for the reasonable members:
And FYI, I had forgotten about the documentary mentioned in the post above, Our Man in Moscow from the BBC, and I really had a desire to watch it, but never could find a source that would not be “the video is unavailable in your area” at the time; I had now looked and it appears one can watch it here:
P. S. Personaldesas, if I didn’t know any better, I would actually take offence to your post. Laughing.
personaldesas
Active Member
According to the article, alcoholism appear to be one of the main drivers. Curious why that's such a problem in that region.That one isn't unique to Russia either, though it is related to the former Soviet Union.
Why the former USSR has far fewer men than women
This region in Eastern Europe has been predominately female since at least WWII.www.pewresearch.org
rsemmes
Active Member
Jus a little note.
Even if a lot of people read it, I would not use thetelegraph at all, it is not thesun, themirror nor thedailyexpress, but, as I read about Fox News, "the news you want to hear".
Western media provides a biased version of events, some media provides propaganda.
personaldesas
Active Member
Let me restate the core point for clarity.
The 15k-follower example was illustrative, not the core criterion. The issue is source weighting and sampling, especially when the information intake comes from algorithmic feeds like X.
X isn’t “reality.” It’s an algorithmic feed that builds a personalized stream based on engagement and network effects, and it amplifies high-virality claims regardless of source quality or how representiv a take is. Bad takes often get ranked higher due to the reaction they cause. So repetition in a feed is neither a proxy for consensus nor for accuracy.
So seeing many repeated bad takes, even from officials or large outlets, which of course also say dumb things, shows amplification dynamics, not proof of a unified narrative or mass delusion.
Reach and repetition on X aren’t reliability metrics. Visibility doesn’t make claims true or representative. Source quality, methodology, and track record matter more than feed frequency.
Of course you don’t, taking offence just because someone pushes back or disagrees with you would be ridiculous. You’re clearly more level-headed than that.
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personaldesas
Active Member
Well, if the goal is to show that everyone is dumb, then of course you highlight examples of dumb people saying dumb things, not the sensible people saying sensible things. Quoting the Telegraph in that context just fits the selection.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #13,995
Correct. Russian life expectancy is in the low 70s, as opposed to the low 80s for much of western Europe. So this does lower the median age. But it also means that we take the population of Russia as the absolute figure, fewer of that figure are older. And vice versa for countries like Spain we take their total population, a bigger portion of that population is older. It's the exact opposite of Beltrami's argument about Russia's population being old.
The one hit by a missile strike while in dry dock was almost unavoidable. I mean theoretically Russian air defenses could have shot down the missile, but the reality of this war is that neither side can fully stop inbounds from the other side, something gets through. The recent one was more problematic since it was done by an unmanned boat, a threat Russia is very well familiar with, and has managed to contain in places like Crimea. And the Novorossiysk base has, and had at that time, measures in place both active and passive to manage the risk of unmanned boat strikes. But it appears the barriers were open, and the security elements were a combination of insufficient, and unprepared. It makes one think of the Ukrainian strikes on the Caspian flotilla. The strikes did very little damage but revealed that Russian facilities and units well away from the current war aren't internalizing and applying the lessons of the war. Russian drone defense in places like Belgorod or Crimea might be robust, but in other places it's lacking. And it's particularly embarrassing in Novorossiysk, since that's practically a front line area for the sea and air war.
Beltrami2005
Member
Looks like a window will open in Russia soon
Ukraine Reclaims Largest Territory After SpaceX Starlink Block
Ukraine Reclaims Largest Territory After SpaceX Starlink Block
I spent a lot of time yesterday reading about Russian demographics and their aging population. In regards to young Russian males it seems if they aren't dying in wars they are dying in the bottle. I'm not sure what drives them to drink so much, perhaps dismal economic prospects.
Beltrami2005
Member
You need to be there to see what they live like. Outside the center of Moscow and St Petersburg Russia is a absolute dystopia. If you dont belong to the elite you live in poverty and without any hope to climb out that misery. Since it is a system based on corruption, working hard changes nothing because hard work is even be seen as stupid.
Your entire life is set. You grow up and know you will have a shitty job, in a polluted mud city where evrything falls apart. You know you will never be able to offer your children anything. Day in, day out.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #14,000
While there certainly are places like that, there are also many places that don't look like that. Where I grew up in Voronezh doesn't look like that. You're cherry-picking the information that supports your feelings on the subject. I could post photos of East St. Louis and talk about how bad it is in the US, but it wouldn't be representative. You also have a tendency to pick a bleak time period, winter or early spring with trees barren, and snow and dirt on the ground. But, for example, here's a more typical mid-winter photo from Voronezh;
Winter Voronezh cityscape. Frozen trees in a forest covered by snow...
Winter Voronezh cityscape. Frozen trees in a forest covered by snow near modern houses in the city of Voronezh.
And here's one from the park. A completely different impression. Photography is an art, meaning there is typically a message behind the photo. It's not just an objective capture of everything that's there.
For a little more context here's a couple of photosets from Varlamov, a Russian blogger and urbanist. One captures the good features the other the bad, of Nizhniy Novogorod, another major city that isn't Moscow or St. Petersburg. Note the time of year is also that late winter early spring part where the partly melting snow and barren earth contribute to the bleakness.
EDIT: Full disclosure, photos are from 2017. They're not completely up to date. But they do illustrate the variety of urban environments from half-rotted century old wooden houses to modern apartment complexes, and historic buildings which also vary from very well preserved to in rather poor state.
Хороший Нижний Новгород
Сегодня – хороший Нижний Новгород! Но для начала кино. Я рад, что вам понравился прошлый ролик. Как, вы ещё не видели его? Быстро сюда...
Плохой Нижний Новгород
Ура! Видео! Впервые на ваших экранах! Легендарная серия отчетов "Плохой/Хороший" теперь и в формате видео! В этот раз я решил взять...
This is simply not true. Plenty of people change their circumstances, get an education and build a life for themselves. Some jobs don't pay well, but some do. And don't forget outside the center of Moscow and St. Petersburg the cost of living drops dramatically, so what constitutes a well paying job changes. More significantly Russia has seen an improvement in quality of life in the past 25 years that's quite substantial. Housing availability has increased dramatically, car ownership has increased quite substantially, and the human development index has also steadily risen since the late '90s. Lastly average salaries in Russia have also increased quite a bit over the same time period, and this is even when accounting for the problems caused by the sanctions after '14. In fact the current war has done less to hit Russian average salaries than the sanctions from '14-'15.
There is a culture of very heavy drinking in Russia. It hails back to the pre-Soviet era, but it grew steadily under the USSR and continues to this day. In my experience it isn't income-dependent. So it's not that people drink because their lives are bad. People whose lives are good also drink. But it's just my subjective view of it, I don't have data to back it up. There is also very lax enforcement of laws controlling age limits on purchasing alcohol. Growing up it wasn't unusual for a kid to get sent to the store to get some beer for an adult, and the store just takes their word for it. Especially if it isn't the big grocery but a smaller shop or even stall. Which of course means plenty of 14-15-16 year olds walking around with beer. When I was 15 the only thing that limited my access to vodka was finances.
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