The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

So far the progress per day is between 15-70 meters. Thats slower than progress in the battle at the Somme in WW I and the slowest any military has progressed in a century.

Russia advance slower than battle of the Somme

Petropavlivka is a village with roughly 6000 people before that war. Russia started the offensive to take that village in november. It took 3 months to achieve that.

That extreme slow progress comes at the cost of very high losses both in soldiers and equipment.

That conflict is unique in that regard in history.

This is like a child repeating what his father told him.

That 15-70m per day is meaningless, just statistics. One day you advance 1.000m, next day you don't attack: You advance 500m per day.

I didn't take 3 months, after 3 months is in Russian hands; and maybe in two days is not. When was the first attack against that village, how many after that? How often have those attacks been carried out? Petropavlivka is not an objective in itself, we don't know if the goal is the river line or Kupiansk, but the enemy is there and it is always useful to destroy the enemy; if that village is abandoned or taken is irrelevant.

Do you mean Ukrainian losses? Do you have any Ukrainian list of casualties, any Ukrainian after action report? Another good point would be if Russia wants a faster progress there. Russia may want to keep Ukraine fighting that side of the river. Do you have any Russian orders for that area of operations?

Every conflict is unique. What do you even mean by that? Are you trying to print some headlines?
When you are repeating that article what is you conclusion? Are you comparing the first day or the whole Somme campaign? Petropavlivka or the Russian invasion? The Robotine offensive, maybe? Are you counting days or days when an actual attack took place? I am sure that you are familiar with the "operational pause" concept.

I have to disagree with you providing "something of substance". That article was Published January 27, 2026

Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine

Despite claims of success in Ukraine, new CSIS data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains, with over 1.2 million casualties. Russia is also in decline as a major economic power with slow growth, weak productivity, and declining manufacturing.

www.csis.org

.
and often repeated since then; even if not here.

Edit.
I was wondering if the Iran-Iraq War is the right comparison. A peer to peer long conflict with a very long front line and a sea/air added dimension; and the international support and implications too.

 

[Feanor]

Please explain how more death than birth have no consequences? A country like Russia can not sustain such losses for a prolonged time.

View attachment 54251

The war basicly erases roughly 2 years of male births so far. Ukraine is a buffer state for european security and as cold as it sounds, Ukraine sacrifice helps to buff Security for Europe. They kill their fighting age males in larger numbers than new ones are born.

The cynical reality is, the longer this drags out, the better for Europe. Killed russian soldiers cant be used in future wars against us. Wounded and crippled russian soldiers also cant be used and additional drain their resources.

From a pure machiavellian pov the current situation needs to drag as long as possible to allow Europe massive upscale in defense without have to worry too much about Russia.

Ukraine in that sense works as an ablative heatshield...

You've just moved the goalposts. Your initial argument was that Russia is running out of men. Those born today aren't going to be fighting in this war. Also, you'll note that the article posted above quotes 325k for Russian war dead. I think this is a realistic estimate, though on the high side, 250k seems to be a more mid-point estimate. Russia had ~1.2 mln birth in 2024. If half are male, then this war wiped out ~6 months of Russian male births. How you arrived at the figure of 2 years is unclear to me. Nor does this have much to do with the outcome of the war. Last but not least, Russia has annexed territory with millions of people living in it. In other words this war is a net population gain for Russia. And this does matter to the continuation of the war. LNR and DNR forces integrated into the Russian military have fought, and fought well against Ukraine. Military units out of Crimea have also fought and fought well (often better then Russian units from the mainland). In other words LDNR territories and population as well as Crimea contribute meaningfully to the Russian war effort.

The demographic issues of this war have to do not with the war dead, but with mass migration, people fleeing the fighting. This is the main demographic crisis that Ukraine faces. It's compounded by the poor state of Ukraine's healthcare system, badly strained by the war, leading to increased mortality even outside of combat. Just look into the difficulty of getting relatively routine medical care for Ukrainian civilians. Russia could face something similar, in terms of an outflow of population, albeit on a smaller scale if they tried to do another mobilization wave. Lastly in 2024 we had somewhere between 150k (UA sources) and 300k (RU sources) Ukrainians move to Russian-held areas of the country. I use the term "Ukrainian" to refer to Ukrainian citizens, it's quite likely there were many (maybe mostly?) ethnic Russians among them. Half-way through 2024 Russia imposed entry restrictions on Ukrainian citizens coming into Russia, requiring them to enter through a special checkpoint in Sheremetyevo airport. This may have slowed the flow, but it didn't stop it, and so far we haven't seen numbers for 2025, but I suspect six-figures for the year. In other words it's entirely possible just migration from Ukraine to Russian-held Ukraine outpaces the actual war dead for Russia.

Earlier you posted a single photo of an old looking Russian soldier but no actual data to back it up despite iirc the actual data being posted earlier in this thread. I'll post it here again (1st link), and some materials on the age of Ukrainian service members. If age of service members is an indication of running out of manpower (and it's not clear that it is, Russia does voluntary recruitment while Ukraine exempts under 25s from the mobilization), then it's not Russia that's running out. Also Russia just expanded the list of chronic illnesses that make one ineligible for military service. In other words, Russia is comfortable enough with their recruitment to tighten standards, not loosen them. The side running out of men in the armed forces is Ukraine, but not because of high battlefield losses, rather because of mass desertions, and draft dodging.

The Myth of Endless Manpower: Russian Soldiers’ Average Age Approaches 38 as Trends Persist

A Special Investigation by Frontelligence Insight on Manpower Issues

frontelligence.substack.com

The average age of Ukrainian soldiers fighting Russia is 43-45, while the youngest troops remain exempt from front-line combat | Fortune

The exemption for men aged between 18 and 25 from front-line combat is motivated by a belief that they will be key to rebuilding Ukraine in the future, said lawmaker Serhiy Rakhmanin.

fortune.com

Old men belong here. How Ukrainian Armed Forces have become 40+ age army and whether lowering mobilisation age will affect combat capability

Ukrainska Pravda explains why the Armed Forces of Ukraine have become an army of fighters aged 40+, how this affects their combat capability, and whether the law lowering the mobilisation age to 25, will change the situation.

www.pravda.com.ua

Минобороны расширило список болезней, запрещающих подписание контракта

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

 

[Beltrami2005]

You've just moved the goalposts. Your initial argument was that Russia is running out of men. Those born today aren't going to be fighting in this war. Also, you'll note that the article posted above quotes 325k for Russian war dead. I think this is a realistic estimate, though on the high side, 250k seems to be a more mid-point estimate. Russia had ~1.2 mln birth in 2024. If half are male, then this war wiped out ~6 months of Russian male births. How you arrived at the figure of 2 years is unclear to me. Nor does this have much to do with the outcome of the war. Last but not least, Russia has annexed territory with millions of people living in it. In other words this war is a net population gain for Russia. And this does matter to the continuation of the war. LNR and DNR forces integrated into the Russian military have fought, and fought well against Ukraine. Military units out of Crimea have also fought and fought well (often better then Russian units from the mainland). In other words LDNR territories and population as well as Crimea contribute meaningfully to the Russian war effort.

The demographic issues of this war have to do not with the war dead, but with mass migration, people fleeing the fighting. This is the main demographic crisis that Ukraine faces. It's compounded by the poor state of Ukraine's healthcare system, badly strained by the war, leading to increased mortality even outside of combat. Just look into the difficulty of getting relatively routine medical care for Ukrainian civilians. Russia could face something similar, in terms of an outflow of population, albeit on a smaller scale if they tried to do another mobilization wave. Lastly in 2024 we had somewhere between 150k (UA sources) and 300k (RU sources) Ukrainians move to Russian-held areas of the country. I use the term "Ukrainian" to refer to Ukrainian citizens, it's quite likely there were many (maybe mostly?) ethnic Russians among them. Half-way through 2024 Russia imposed entry restrictions on Ukrainian citizens coming into Russia, requiring them to enter through a special checkpoint in Sheremetyevo airport. This may have slowed the flow, but it didn't stop it, and so far we haven't seen numbers for 2025, but I suspect six-figures for the year. In other words it's entirely possible just migration from Ukraine to Russian-held Ukraine outpaces the actual war dead for Russia.

Earlier you posted a single photo of an old looking Russian soldier but no actual data to back it up despite iirc the actual data being posted earlier in this thread. I'll post it here again (1st link), and some materials on the age of Ukrainian service members. If age of service members is an indication of running out of manpower (and it's not clear that it is, Russia does voluntary recruitment while Ukraine exempts under 25s from the mobilization), then it's not Russia that's running out. Also Russia just expanded the list of chronic illnesses that make one ineligible for military service. In other words, Russia is comfortable enough with their recruitment to tighten standards, not loosen them. The side running out of men in the armed forces is Ukraine, but not because of high battlefield losses, rather because of mass desertions, and draft dodging.

The Myth of Endless Manpower: Russian Soldiers’ Average Age Approaches 38 as Trends Persist

A Special Investigation by Frontelligence Insight on Manpower Issues

frontelligence.substack.com

The average age of Ukrainian soldiers fighting Russia is 43-45, while the youngest troops remain exempt from front-line combat | Fortune

The exemption for men aged between 18 and 25 from front-line combat is motivated by a belief that they will be key to rebuilding Ukraine in the future, said lawmaker Serhiy Rakhmanin.

fortune.com

Old men belong here. How Ukrainian Armed Forces have become 40+ age army and whether lowering mobilisation age will affect combat capability

Ukrainska Pravda explains why the Armed Forces of Ukraine have become an army of fighters aged 40+, how this affects their combat capability, and whether the law lowering the mobilisation age to 25, will change the situation.

www.pravda.com.ua

Минобороны расширило список болезней, запрещающих подписание контракта

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

For Europe security what matters is a russian population that is as low as possible. That goal are achieved within the Ukraine war. Nobody denies that Ukraine has horrible losses in this senseless war, but so far Russia loses 1% of its population for 1.45% Ukraine to hold.

Russias demographic collapse

If we manage to keep Ukraine hold that up for one or even two more years, Russia ceases to be a threat for Europe completly. And thats achieved for Europe with minimum cost. We dont lose soldiers, dont lose much equipment ect.

It was US politician Graham who said it very blunt.



Ukraine is a buffer state, till 2014 Russia controlled all of it. Now in 2026 Europe has 80% of it plus a weakned Russia.

I think its absolute important that we keep our support up and even intensify it. The fact that russias projected influence collapsed to zero in syria and other areas of the world is in my opinion a good indication that european support for ukraine is absolute worth it.

As it looks like, russias population has catastrophic development

A russia without russians

The war in Ukraine is a mayor factor in that.

 

[Beltrami2005]

Double send accidently

 

[KipPotapych]

Fundamental mathematics and cold numbers game is not easy, I understand. But trumping everything else is quite easy, on the other hand, when you just post nonsense.

So 70m per day, being the upper limit of the range, suggests a liberal estimate of Russia occupying about 2,200 sq m in January, which is generous 0.0022 sq km. Being liberal again, by using this 31-day month estimate, we can conclude that Russia occupied a generous 0.0264 sq km in the entire 2025. But is there a twist? Let’s see if they can break past 1 sq km in the entire war…. Well, that’s disappointing, there are no twists: the Russians occupied generous one tenth (0.1) of a square kilometer since the beginning of the invasion. And that would be using the generous end of the estimate of the daily advances.

I saw those numbers in the CSIS article a few days ago, the one that talks about the losses. That was the point I stopped reading. Saw a few headlines with these numbers too since - some of those articles likely had another twist in interpretations, I am sure.

Let’s do more fun fundamental mathematics. The claim above say that Russia lost 1% of its population (while quoting the post that explains why it is likely a net gain for the Russian Federation). A post above also cites an estimate of 325,000 Russian troops killed in the war. Using these estimates, we can conclude that the current Russian population is about 32.5 million people and that would be, again, on the higher end of the range.

What about the math about not losing much equipment? Too hard for me, that one.

But trumping everything else sure is easy, while fundamental mathematics is not.


A thought, though unrelated to the fundamental mathematics. Imagine being anti-immigration and pro-buffer and safe Europe. Then imagine a scenario where the support with a goal to collapse Russia (because that would be the best outcome for global security and European security in particular) results in bigger Russia having a much closer border with the EU, while having the previously fairly stable buffer turn into an impoverished failed state, filled with weapons and dominated by well-trained and brutal war-hardened individuals with extreme-right views of things, and with millions more of angry Ukrainians, who feel to had been betrayed by their western allies, migrating to the European Union and the United Kingdom and elsewhere in the west. The calculus seems to be… well, par for the course.

 

[KipPotapych]

In the meantime, from the Ukrainian troops at the frontline and journos with access to those guys (a dose of Russian propaganda):

From this thread (in Ukrainian) by Ryan: https://x.com/RyanO_ChosenCoy/status/2018074442237124993

This post: https://x.com/OSINTua/status/2017919584016179278

This post: https://x.com/JulianRoepcke/status/2017892398567698874

This post: https://x.com/polidemitolog?lang=en, talking about this paywalled article:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy blames European states for Ukraine air defence gaps

Zelensky basically blamed Euros for the situation with the Ukrainian grid.


Humour, if you will, on the subject of losses:

The guy said that he gets his numbers directly from the frontline and higher ups in the Ukrainian military and was outraged when someone challenged his “sources” in HUR. I should have made a screenshot of the follow up discussion, alas…


Was going to post this a few days ago, but it skipped on me until now. A thread from Jompy on the Russian tank production (sorry, only Twitter since the unroll app bugs it all up - it is a long thread, over 50 posts):

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/2014974532906373292

Same with this piece. An interview with Volyna that is worth a read (Ukrainska Pravda in English), it’s a long one:

Hero of Ukraine Serhii Volynskyi: Thousands died at Krynky. It was a huge failure, a tragedy, and hell on earth

Serhii Volynskyi, better known to Ukrainians by his alias Volyna, is one of those officers whose personal story is inseparably intertwined with the story of this war.

www.pravda.com.ua

There is a video/audio version in Ukrainian, but if someone knows the tricks to dub it in English, it is worth a listen (it’s looong):

Another piece meant to be posted a few days ago that talks about the Russian efforts aimed at the degradation of the Ukrainian critical infrastructure:

Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy CI - Trends and Outlook - Rochan Consulting

In November 2025, I delivered a presentation to a client on Russian strikes against Ukrainian...

rochan-consulting.com

This is it for this post.

P. S. I started this post by citing a thread from O’Leary and now remembered his exchange in another thread today that talked about some young Russian woman dodging the bullet of ending up on the Epstein island. Just a reminder that the guy is an actual degenerate, which I had already discussed here previously, like his guys (the Chosen Company) being allegedly involved in executions of prisoners, etc.

P. P. S. On the subject of Epstein, some really bonkers stuff was discussed today by otherwise reasonable people, as well as very unreasonable ones. Maybe I will make a post about it in the General Russia thread tomorrow.

 

[vikingatespam]

Please explain how more death than birth have no consequences? A country like Russia can not sustain such losses for a prolonged time.

The demographic/age issues for RU are a long term problem that will have serious repercussions....later. Right now, in the short term, both the RU and UKR claim that RU is still finding the money to recruit ~30,000 men a month. Those large $$$ expenditures will also cause long-term problems.....but not right now.

It begs the question - where are all these volunteers going ? RU has supposedly been recruiting 30K/month for some time, but has not managed to increase the rate of advance meaningfully. The casualty rates we talked about in past posts dont show 30K/month in permanent losses, so RU should either be advancing faster (army getting much larger), or they are actually suffering permanent casualties of 30K/month (army # in equilibrium) or they are accumulating a large reserve of men, presumably for better training.

 

[rsemmes]

A good chunk of Ternuvate seems to be back in Ukrainian hands today.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.8319331136509%2C36.1547493995644&z=14

I guess we will have to wait until next week to "know", unless it turns into another "Kupiansk Zone".

 

[rsemmes]

migrating to the European Union and the United Kingdom and elsewhere in the west.

Canada, for example... Not only UK.

Nothing personal.

 

[rsemmes]

so RU should either be advancing faster

If Russia has any intention of advancing faster.

I don't know if Feanor has been able to read any documents about the actual Russian strategic goals for this year, I haven't. Maybe Stavka is quite happy to let things as they are because, in its calculations, Ukraine will have to negotiate a peace agreement, before the end of the year, in a much weaker (no AD, for example) position.

I don't know the terms for those "contract soldiers". One (three?) year or until the end of the war? Maybe the MoD can fire them straight away? Keep them and send almost everyone else back home?

Did you forgot to mention the long term problems for Ukraine? Demographics, debt and reconstruction?

 

[Beltrami2005]

If Russia has any intention of advancing faster.

I don't know if Feanor has been able to read any documents about the actual Russian strategic goals for this year, I haven't. Maybe Stavka is quite happy to let things as they are because, in its calculations, Ukraine will have to negotiate a peace agreement, before the end of the year, in a much weaker (no AD, for example) position.

I don't know the terms for those "contract soldiers". One (three?) year or until the end of the war? Maybe the MoD can fire them straight away? Keep them and send almost everyone else back home?

Did you forgot to mention the long term problems for Ukraine? Demographics, debt and reconstruction?

Nobody denies the Problems of Ukraine. But Ukraine is not our enemy, russia is. Debt isnt an issue for Ukraine. We have 300 billion € russian assets frozen in the EU that already work as security for loans.

Reconstruction will be done with european expertise and companies. After peace a quick Integration of Ukraine with Europe will bring economic stability and growth.

 

[rsemmes]

Trying to read that...

Russian tank production

I found this: "Russia is estimated to have produced roughly 240 T-90M tanks in 2024 and believed is on track for a similar figure in 2025. Even accounting for battlefield losses, the net effect appears to leave Moscow with more operational T-90M tanks than before. Combined with more restrained use of armor on the battlefield this year, the buildup suggests the Russian army may require far less time to replenish its tank park than many analysts assumed. It also underscores that Russia retains the capacity to sustain a war of aggression, despite the mounting costs of its campaign in Ukraine."

Exclusive: Inside Russia’s 2026–2036 Tank Fleet Modernization and Buildup Plans

In the spring and summer of 2025, as part of our own operation, our team obtained exclusive documents that provide new insight into Russia’s tank-production plans and confirm the existence of a little-known variant of the latest Russian tank.

frontelligence.substack.com

and then this:
"Ukrainian officials have previously estimated that the manufacturer can produce approximately 60 to 70 T-90 tanks per year under ideal conditions, and current estimates suggest monthly production ranges between three and six tanks."

Russia outlines plan to rebuild its armored forces in preparation for large-scale war with NATO | Milwaukee Independent

www.milwaukeeindependent.com

but...
"Internal documents published on October 11 by Frontelligence Insight, an open-source intelligence group based in Ukraine"
that is the first link. Interestingly enough, those 'Ukrainian officials' are saying that 'everything is great' and that all that is "to rebuild its strategic reserve for future operations against NATO." So, they are saying that every tank that we have here, in the UK, in storage, is against Russia, like every char en stockage and el parque de carros; all of them, against Russia. Well... all right... they also say that Russia may use some T-72 against Ukraine.
I don't know, maybe Russia is just carrying out some "live drills" in Ukraine and the whole point is the invasion of Europe... Na La-Mansh!

"Russia still employs tanks during occasional mechanized assaults when Ukrainian drone capabilities are degraded. Recently, Russian forces conducted both company-sized and reinforced battalion-sized mechanized assaults in areas near Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast."
Or, if one side achieves drone supremacy (or the right weather conditions) we may see armoured offensives again; if that is the command decision.

 

[Beltrami2005]

Trying to read that...

I found this: "Russia is estimated to have produced roughly 240 T-90M tanks in 2024 and believed is on track for a similar figure in 2025. Even accounting for battlefield losses, the net effect appears to leave Moscow with more operational T-90M tanks than before. Combined with more restrained use of armor on the battlefield this year, the buildup suggests the Russian army may require far less time to replenish its tank park than many analysts assumed. It also underscores that Russia retains the capacity to sustain a war of aggression, despite the mounting costs of its campaign in Ukraine."

Exclusive: Inside Russia’s 2026–2036 Tank Fleet Modernization and Buildup Plans

In the spring and summer of 2025, as part of our own operation, our team obtained exclusive documents that provide new insight into Russia’s tank-production plans and confirm the existence of a little-known variant of the latest Russian tank.

frontelligence.substack.com

and then this:
"Ukrainian officials have previously estimated that the manufacturer can produce approximately 60 to 70 T-90 tanks per year under ideal conditions, and current estimates suggest monthly production ranges between three and six tanks."

Russia outlines plan to rebuild its armored forces in preparation for large-scale war with NATO | Milwaukee Independent

www.milwaukeeindependent.com

but...
"Internal documents published on October 11 by Frontelligence Insight, an open-source intelligence group based in Ukraine"
that is the first link. Interestingly enough, those 'Ukrainian officials' are saying that 'everything is great' and that all that is "to rebuild its strategic reserve for future operations against NATO." So, they are saying that every tank that we have here, in the UK, in storage, is against Russia, like every char en stockage and el parque de carros; all of them, against Russia. Well... all right... they also say that Russia may use some T-72 against Ukraine.
I don't know, maybe Russia is just carrying out some "live drills" in Ukraine and the whole point is the invasion of Europe... Na La-Mansh!

"Russia still employs tanks during occasional mechanized assaults when Ukrainian drone capabilities are degraded. Recently, Russian forces conducted both company-sized and reinforced battalion-sized mechanized assaults in areas near Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast."
Or, if one side achieves drone supremacy (or the right weather conditions) we may see armoured offensives again; if that is the command decision.

Thats rather ridiculous. There wont be an invasion of Russia to Europe. Thats like assuming Guatemala plans an Invasion of the USA.

Russia is rather poor, has not many people and its military is derelict.

As it looks now Russia is now using horses on the battlefield but with little sucess. Drone pilots are skilled enough to neutralize the russian riders without killing the horse.

Russia uses horses on the front

On a sidenote, thats something completly alien in spanish culture and history. If our leaders had ever pulled us in such a prolonged war, with such losses and so little to win...you would see massive uprisings in Spain, both in civilians and military. Its so strange to watch russians ride on donkeys into battle into certain death to conquer a muddy potato field.

 

[personaldesas]

Thread Locked: A discussion among the Mod team will occur to determine how long. There've been far too many poor quality posts, as well as posts which are Off Topic. The topic of this thread if the Russian-Ukrainian War, posting about what one country might have done in an entirely different country and not directly tied to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is Off Topic and irrelevant. Also, posting unsupported claims with the expectation that members who question or would challenge the claim need to 'google' the claim for proof isn't how honest debate works. The burden of proof is on the person making the claim.
-Preceptor

I support the moderation goals you outlined. I do want to note, though, that enforcement hasn’t always felt consistent over the past months. There have been repeated cases where strong claims were justified by referring to supposed non-public data or unnamed internal sources, and when asked for evidence, the response was essentially that no sourcing was needed and others should just accept it. Those situations didn’t seem to draw the same moderation response.

I’m fully in favor of the standards you described. I’d just suggest applying them consistently across the board. When enforcement feels uneven, people shouldn’t be surprised if posting behavior drifts away from the rules.

 

[Feanor]

The demographic/age issues for RU are a long term problem that will have serious repercussions....later. Right now, in the short term, both the RU and UKR claim that RU is still finding the money to recruit ~30,000 men a month. Those large $$$ expenditures will also cause long-term problems.....but not right now.

It begs the question - where are all these volunteers going ? RU has supposedly been recruiting 30K/month for some time, but has not managed to increase the rate of advance meaningfully. The casualty rates we talked about in past posts dont show 30K/month in permanent losses, so RU should either be advancing faster (army getting much larger), or they are actually suffering permanent casualties of 30K/month (army # in equilibrium) or they are accumulating a large reserve of men, presumably for better training.

Remember, they're also releasing people at the end of their 6 month obligations and iirc even the one-year contracts are being released at the end of their time. So they have to replace the churn. There's also the fact that more forces doesn't necessarily mean faster advances in this war. It will be in the next update, but it appears one of the things happening is multiple Russian small cross-border entries across many sections of the international border that were previously quiet for years. In other words part of the explanation might be that the extra forces are going into expanding the fighting to more areas.

 

[Beltrami2005]

Remember, they're also releasing people at the end of their 6 month obligations and iirc even the one-year contracts are being released at the end of their time. So they have to replace the churn. There's also the fact that more forces doesn't necessarily mean faster advances in this war. It will be in the next update, but it appears one of the things happening is multiple Russian small cross-border entries across many sections of the international border that were previously quiet for years. In other words part of the explanation might be that the extra forces are going into expanding the fighting to more areas.

It doesnt look like that. Its pretty much standard knowledge by now that russian losses hover around 1000 men a day.

Russian Losses

A months has 30 days...you pretty much get 30.000 losses per month. Thats also consistent with the duration of the war and the estimated losses of 1.2 to 1.5 million.

 

[Feanor]

It doesnt look like that. Its pretty much standard knowledge by now that russian losses hover around 1000 men a day.

Russian Losses

A months has 30 days...you pretty much get 30.000 losses per month. Thats also consistent with the duration of the war and the estimated losses of 1.2 to 1.5 million.

Look at what vikingatespam wrote. He's talking about permanent losses. The 30 000 a month figure includes WIA. Many of those recover.

 

[vikingatespam]

If Russia has any intention of advancing faster.

I don't know if Feanor has been able to read any documents about the actual Russian strategic goals for this year, I haven't. Maybe Stavka is quite happy to let things as they are because, in its calculations, Ukraine will have to negotiate a peace agreement, before the end of the year, in a much weaker (no AD, for example) position.

We have already been over this. The statements of RU officials, combined with troop dispositions is more then enough to indicate the goals of the war are to take as much of UKR as possible.

Claiming that RU doesnt want to advance faster (other than outrunning your logistical tail, which at these rates of advance is unlikely) is simply nonsense. There is nothing to gain by being stuck in trench warfare.

The far more simple, and therefore likely answer to this assertion is that RU simply cannot advance any faster.

I don't know the terms for those "contract soldiers". One (three?) year or until the end of the war? Maybe the MoD can fire them straight away? Keep them and send almost everyone else back home?

How about forever ?

How Russia Is Recruiting for the Long War

Covertly Mobilising Volunteers While Preparing for a New Round of Compulsory Mobilisation

www.swp-berlin.org

.

Tricky Recruiting in Russia: 2023 Spring Conscripts and Volunteers - Jamestown

jamestown.org

.

Do we have evidence that large numbers of RU contractural soldiers who are not permanently maimed are being released at the end of their initial contracts ?

Did you forgot to mention the long term problems for Ukraine? Demographics, debt and reconstruction?

No forgetting at all, it wasnt the topic of the original question.

Since you feel so strongly about UKR demographics, etc, we eagerly look forward to your presentation of information.

 

[Beltrami2005]

Look at what vikingatespam wrote. He's talking about permanent losses. The 30 000 a month figure includes WIA. Many of those recover.

And many dont.

And the crazy part is, russia fires its citizens into the oven to gain acess to absolute worthless and depopulated land. Barren landscapes and mined farmland. Poisoned and what russia holds is basicly a wasteland. Scientists call it a ecocide.

Ecocide at Ukrainian frontlines

As i said, in Spain we would completly crush our government for this. I find this russian apathy astounding. Can you imagine losing your son for 10 m² poisoned mud field? And as compensation you get a meat grinder machine.

The way russia deals with the families of fallen soldiers is outright bizarre for people from other cultures.

Russia’s Absurd “Gifts” to Families of Its Dead Soldiers

He got a bag of onions...

And this mourning mother gets a bag of towels for her fallen sons service

I think the war in Ukraine has shown us in Europe one thing, how absolute alien Russia is to us.

 

[vikingatespam]

Trying to read that...

I found this: "Russia is estimated to have produced roughly 240 T-90M tanks in 2024 and believed is on track for a similar figure in 2025.

https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/06/russian-t-90m-production-less-than-meets-the-eye/

The RU tank production (new + refurb) estimates are all over the map. Once thing I would be curious to know is whether or not RU is building new T-90 hulls, or at this time, using refurbed T-72 hulls with T-90 turrets.