The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes

Active Member
This is my final point here. And a couple of you made that point. As I said again each night now, about 15 to 20 missiles are sent into Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv and other big population centres in Ukraine. And hundreds of drones. The interception rate has come down. And the interception rate has come down because some of the NASAMS systems now in Ukraine do not have enough interceptors to fight back. And also, the Patriot systems, of course, need constant supply of PAC missiles for them to intercept these missiles. And I agree with the parliamentarian who said that you also have to dig into your own stockpiles.
Europe is now building its defence industry, and that is vital, but it cannot, at the moment, provide nearly enough of what Ukraine needs to defend itself today and to deter tomorrow.
Then, second topic, investing in defence. We had a successful Summit in The Hague in June, where we agreed to invest five per cent of GDP annually in defence by 2035 and to speed up the production and the innovation of our defence production. Five per cent, of course, is a lot, and boosting our industrial base is not easy. But here my simple message is, we need to do it, and we need to do it fast.
Remarks by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
This (digging) is in January, I have to wonder what we will be providing in June. Not only that, we have to invest in our industry to prepare it for an increase in production, regenerate and augment our stockpiles and, actually, increase that production now.

The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said it verified that 2,514 civilians were killed and 12,142 injured in conflict-related violence in Ukraine in 2025, nearly all of them in Russian attacks against Ukrainian-held areas.
The United Nations has said in the past that the “actual figures are likely higher” for civilian casualties in Ukraine, since many reports are “still pending corroboration” and it has no access to occupied territory and limited access to areas near front lines.
This is what I mentioned as "overkill". CNN is providing facts, but selected facts. It is not providing (certainly, CNN does not have to) even an estimate about Ukrainian dead in the occupied territory and it is not providing any number about Russian civilian casualties.
Should I point out at the missing numbers or at the numbers that are being repeated everywhere?

If Russian crude oil cannot be segregated and processed separately by the refinery, but evidence is provided by the third party that no Russian crude has been received or processed in the ‘production line’ over the past 60 days prior to the bill of lading date of the cargo at issue, import into the EU is allowed. Third-country refineries may issue such an attestation, which may serve as supporting evidence. EU operators may ask their counterparts to provide additional documentary evidence (records of vessels delivering crude in the past months etc.).
In this case particular due diligence should be exercised by importers to be certain that the oil products imported from these net crude oil exporting countries do not contain Russian oil products.
The objective of the provision is to limit imports of Russian crude oil ‘through the back door’ into the EU. It should not affect the purchase, import into third countries or transfer by EU operators of such products to third countries, including transit through EU waters.

I need a lawyer here. If it has enough oil tanks, every refinery can store Russian oil for 61 days and then process it unaffected by the "Import ban"? Due Diligence should be exercised?
We will get as much Russian oil ‘through the back door’ as we want. Is that a fair conclusion?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
No it isn't. Reports are that millions of drones per year are getting used. If Russia could consistently get a 20-1 ratio of drones to kills whenever the drones were available (as opposed to whenever the targets were available), Russia would have annihilated Ukraine's armed forces last year. We're talking about casualties on a level that neither side could sustain.
My 20-1 was an "out of the hat" figure, I could have posted 10-1 or 100-1.
A report was posted here
50% success at most, could be as low as 2.5%; part of that failure ratio is whatever weapons section, squad or platoon already have. My point was not about the ratio but, that by investing more on defensive weapons, drones are going to be even less effective and we may put this "drone-war" fashion in its right place. You cannot avoid mortar fire, you are going to take some casualties.
Actually, I think that Russia should go for attack drones, if there is no one to shoot at you, you get the job done. Ukraine, on the other hand, should try to keep enough men in the front line; obviously, footage of a failed drone attack is not as good as propaganda as one of one drone hitting an enemy soldier.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Further estimates of RU casualties are available:


Within this document, RU casualties are estimated to be ~1.2M. The article claims ~325,000 KIA, which is more in line with FM101-1 estimates of K:W ratios of 1:3, while QJM would estimate KIA of ~240,000 from the total loss value. It is possible that changes on the battlefield are changing the K:W ratios compared to conventional warfare in the 20th century.

A post on X (https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/2016343814114574814) claims that the RU value does nto include LPR/DPR or Wagner losses, but the CSIS article doesnt state one way or another.

Mediazona (Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated) currently lists a number of confirmed RU KIA as ~168,000, with an estimate of 219K based on probate registries. These values do not count the LPR/DPR losses. The DPR was publicly reporting losses up to DEC-2022, which at the time gave an estimate of ~11,000 KIA (Counting the dead: almost 27,500 confirmed casualties as Russia pays the price of fighting Ukrainian counter-offensive). While it would be tempting to scale these DPR/LPR losses by time, at some point these forces probably became reported as RU.

Other estimates are available at wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war).
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
My 20-1 was an "out of the hat" figure, I could have posted 10-1 or 100-1.
A report was posted here
50% success at most, could be as low as 2.5%; part of that failure ratio is whatever weapons section, squad or platoon already have. My point was not about the ratio but, that by investing more on defensive weapons, drones are going to be even less effective and we may put this "drone-war" fashion in its right place. You cannot avoid mortar fire, you are going to take some casualties.
Actually, I think that Russia should go for attack drones, if there is no one to shoot at you, you get the job done. Ukraine, on the other hand, should try to keep enough men in the front line; obviously, footage of a failed drone attack is not as good as propaganda as one of one drone hitting an enemy soldier.
I think the issue is less about casualties, and more about the fact that any maneuver by mechanized or armored formations is now inherently compromised. Even Russian hedgehog tanks aren't survivable enough, and they seem to be the best currently available passive drone defense in this war, both sides are moving more and more towards them. Without mechanized maneuver, war becomes inherently slow in terms of territorial swings. Undoubtedly scale and density both play a role with front lines being porous near the zero line, but quite dense deeper in. I think this will eventually go to the RCWS on top of armored vehicles serving in a drone-defense capacity, but it will require substantial technical improvements, and for optimal performance it will require the ability to link multiple vehicles together into a sort of IADS but for drone defense. Until we get there, everything else only marginally improves survival. And you'll note tactics, especially from Russia who is on the offensive far more and therefore has to adapt more, have shifted towards attacking in poor weather or under the cover of fog. Otherwise vehicles are kept back and movements/attacks are conducted mostly by small teams either on foot, or utilizing creative mobility options (ATVs, motor-bikes, donkeys, etc.).
 
I think the kinetic defense systems are in their last days at least in drone warfare. Its simply not economic to do that against drones. We scale up european defense production fast but Ukraine shows that drones deplete the systems. Energy weapons are in development that will make drones obsolete. Ironicly the old gepard system is ukraine best option against drones right now.
Its quite effective in taking out russian drones and spares expensive systems like iris-t and patriot
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ Wrong again, about Gerards being the best option.


Interesting developments in Zaporizhzhia. Various mappers have marked it differently. For example:

IMG_3728.jpeg

IMG_3729.jpeg

Interestingly though, some of the more conservative pro-UA mappers did what Ropcke did above. Time will tell.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I think the kinetic defense systems are in their last days at least in drone warfare. Its simply not economic to do that against drones. We scale up european defense production fast but Ukraine shows that drones deplete the systems. Energy weapons are in development that will make drones obsolete. Ironicly the old gepard system is ukraine best option against drones right now.
Its quite effective in taking out russian drones and spares expensive systems like iris-t and patriot
Sorry two separate drone threats. There are things like the Shahed, really just cheaper cruise missiles. And there are things like the Duke Vandal, a much smaller weapon used directly on the battlefield. The latter can appear in very large numbers, with 30+ expended on a single armored vehicle. Gepards and other AAA are pretty good against things like the Shahed, provided you have a dense enough network of it and some good early warning. This is where I think lasers are the future. But will lasers have the rate of fire to deal with the buckets of drones on the front lines? I'm not sure. I don't think we're going to see combat lasers miniaturized to the scale of an RCWS, which leaves the humble HMG. And here's the thing, the HMG isn't bad at it in principle, and has good effect against other targets. In fact HMG RCWS is already an exceedingly common feature in armored vehicles. The main problem is solving the ability of it to target drones effectively and scaling deployment across basically all platforms operating on or near the front line.
 
^ Wrong again, about Gerards being the best option.


Interesting developments in Zaporizhzhia. Various mappers have marked it differently. For example:

View attachment 54238

View attachment 54239

Interestingly though, some of the more conservative pro-UA mappers did what Ropcke did above. Time will tell.
Not wrong, Gepards are old and could be supplied with low cost in large numbers. Their sucess rate in shooting down drones is excellent.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/20/ukraine-drone-defense/

They are cheap, extremly sucessful in destroying shahed drones and the backbone of Ukraine anti drone systems
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I think the issue is less about casualties, and more about the fact that any maneuver by mechanized or armored formations is now inherently compromised. Even Russian hedgehog tanks aren't survivable enough, and they seem to be the best currently available passive drone defense in this war, both sides are moving more and more towards them. Without mechanized maneuver, war becomes inherently slow in terms of territorial swings. Undoubtedly scale and density both play a role with front lines being porous near the zero line, but quite dense deeper in. I think this will eventually go to the RCWS on top of armored vehicles serving in a drone-defense capacity, but it will require substantial technical improvements, and for optimal performance it will require the ability to link multiple vehicles together into a sort of IADS but for drone defense. Until we get there, everything else only marginally improves survival. And you'll note tactics, especially from Russia who is on the offensive far more and therefore has to adapt more, have shifted towards attacking in poor weather or under the cover of fog. Otherwise vehicles are kept back and movements/attacks are conducted mostly by small teams either on foot, or utilizing creative mobility options (ATVs, motor-bikes, donkeys, etc.).
I do agree with the RCWS approach, I posted about adding an anti-drone company to the tank battalion. (Or Arena, turning tanks into aircraft.)
I strongly disagree with the "turtle" concept, that's making the tank inefficient. Besides, any vision port is going to be a drone target, the gun is a drone target and if you hit the tracks, an immobilized tank is a destroyed tank; to be taken care of later on, with heavier ordnance.

The always optimistic Kalibrated shows Ternuvate as taken.
 
I personally don't believe the casualty figures from either side. What is true is that casualties have been high for both sides. It is certainly true that Russia has lost more mechanized units due to their offensive nature, especially earlier in the war. However, we have seen a dramatic uptick in Ukrainian vehicle losses, especially due to logistics being interdicted further and further back. Then the question comes down to losses in personnel. There is simply too much we don't know, even from the earlier battles in 2022. The Kherson counteroffensive, for instance, was very costly for the Ukrainians. How costly? There is no way to obtain any sort of independent assessment. I feel it's closer to 1:1. And one side is rapidly running out of men willing to fight.

Zaporozhia direction:


Critical shortage of Ukrainian manpower.
https://x.com/squatsons/status/2017437819581415535?s=20


The Russians have captured Ternuvate, further expanding their bridgehead across the river of Haichur.
https://x.com/Kalibrated_Maps/status/2017238897114468518?s=20

The Russian MoD claims to have captured Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. I'm unsure why they are lying about that, especially since their positions in the area are not in bad shape. It feels like wasted empty words and being premature for no reason. It looks like they have cleared Petropavlivka and Polody.
 
I personally don't believe the casualty figures from either side. What is true is that casualties have been high for both sides. It is certainly true that Russia has lost more mechanized units due to their offensive nature, especially earlier in the war. However, we have seen a dramatic uptick in Ukrainian vehicle losses, especially due to logistics being interdicted further and further back. Then the question comes down to losses in personnel. There is simply too much we don't know, even from the earlier battles in 2022. The Kherson counteroffensive, for instance, was very costly for the Ukrainians. How costly? There is no way to obtain any sort of independent assessment. I feel it's closer to 1:1. And one side is rapidly running out of men willing to fight.

Zaporozhia direction:


Critical shortage of Ukrainian manpower.
https://x.com/squatsons/status/2017437819581415535?s=20


The Russians have captured Ternuvate, further expanding their bridgehead across the river of Haichur.
https://x.com/Kalibrated_Maps/status/2017238897114468518?s=20

The Russian MoD claims to have captured Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. I'm unsure why they are lying about that, especially since their positions in the area are not in bad shape. It feels like wasted empty words and being premature for no reason. It looks like they have cleared Petropavlivka and Polody.
Losses of personal is always higher on the attacking side. Beside that Russia is also running out of men. Have you seen what they enscript as soldiers now? There are videos out there and it looks like volkssturm material.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ You should lay off euromaidan press and the like, as well as other propaganda outlets on social media. If you believe Russia is running out of men and that the pic you posted represents an average Russian soldier in Ukraine, you should cite some credible source(s) to support your claim, not “I haVe SeEn VidEoS”, or use rational arguments to debate. Otherwise, most of the stuff you post is rubbish and you have been proven to be wrong on several occasions (with data and other facts cited), many other occasions I couldn’t be bothered to discuss further or you would be proven to be wrong yet again, and again; on other occasions, you fail to answer the follow up questions and/or provide a source or rational argument behind your statements. On the previous page, in red, the mods suggested to try and increase the quality of posts because this isn’t exactly a comment section on Twitter/Facebook/Reddit/etc.
 
^ You should lay off euromaidan press and the like, as well as other propaganda outlets on social media. If you believe Russia is running out of men and that the pic you posted represents an average Russian soldier in Ukraine, you should cite some credible source(s) to support your claim, not “I haVe SeEn VidEoS”, or use rational arguments to debate. Otherwise, most of the stuff you post is rubbish and you have been proven to be wrong on several occasions (with data and other facts cited), many other occasions I couldn’t be bothered to discuss further or you would be proven to be wrong yet again, and again; on other occasions, you fail to answer the follow up questions and/or provide a source or rational argument behind your statements. On the previous page, in red, the mods suggested to try and increase the quality of posts because this isn’t exactly a comment section on Twitter/Facebook/Reddit/etc.
Its simple, Russia has a horrendous low birth rate

1000099338.png

The war in Ukraine pushs the population into even worth conditions.

Russia depended on north korean troops to defend its border region with Ukraine.

North Korea sends troops zo

Its simple math, a country with a birth rate like russia can not survive losses like this.

Russias grinding war

This is the fundamental mathematics, cold numbers that trump evry other thing. Birth rate - death rate.

Russia burns through an entire generation and has no replacement. Death > Birth
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
As per Peskov, the energy ceasefire is to last until February 1. He also confirmed the reports that it was Trump who had asked Putin to pause strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure due to humanitarian reasons as was reported by several outlets over the past couple of days.

IMG_3726.jpeg

Today it seems to be the last day though, if February 1 is the correct date. Numerous reports, however, suggest that the system crashed all on its own and pretty much the entire country is in blackout:

IMG_3736.jpeg

IMG_3737.jpeg

Some sources had mentioned that it has something to do with the Romanian supplies or some such. My (semi-educated) guess would be that there is simply way too much strain on what remains of the grid and given the unfavourable weather conditions, a minor failure leads to the entire system shutting down and, as a result, a great chunk of the country is not only without electricity, but also heating and water. Not a good situation and it is not reparable in the foreseeable future - it would likely take some months or even years and that would be after the war is over, and it is almost a given, I would think, that most of the remaining infrastructure will be destroyed before the end of February.

While Zelensky himself confirmed that Russia is adhering to the energy ceasefire, reports suggest that Russia switched to the heavy hitting of logistics. A grandmaster’s take on the subject:



A reasonable person’s take on the same subject:



Sternenko reports that Starlink connection now drops on any device moving faster than 90 km/h:


IMG_3738.jpeg

He says this is temporary for the Ukrainian drones. I do not see how they are going to sort it without creating a list of terminals used by the Ukrainian forces. For the time being, however, it probably curtails Ukrainian operations as much or even more so than it does Russian ops.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
This is the fundamental mathematics, cold numbers that trump evry other thing. Birth rate - death rate.
While you apply your simple mathematics and cold numbers to trump every other thing, you have not addressed what I asked: is Russia running out of men? And why do you believe an average Russian recruit nowadays looks like the man in the photo you posted?

Two things here. 1) When do you think Russia will run out of men? 2) The photo you posted is probably a couple of years old, at least.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Its simple, Russia has a horrendous low birth rate

View attachment 54247

The war in Ukraine pushs the population into even worth conditions.

Russia depended on north korean troops to defend its border region with Ukraine.

North Korea sends troops zo

Its simple math, a country with a birth rate like russia can not survive losses like this.

Russias grinding war

This is the fundamental mathematics, cold numbers that trump evry other thing. Birth rate - death rate.

Russia burns through an entire generation and has no replacement. Death > Birth
This argument has no connection to reality. The casualties of this war are not large enough to have demographic consequences (for either side) on a national scale and birth rates are not relevant to this discussion. Russia has a standing population of over 140 million people. Do you have any evidence that Russia is running out of men?

On a side note, you've talked about Russian demographics. They are bad. What do Ukrainian demographics look like? A war has two sides. Even if your underlying argument had merit (and it doesn't), applied consistently it would still not yield the conclusion you seem to find comfortable.

Losses of personal is always higher on the attacking side. Beside that Russia is also running out of men. Have you seen what they enscript as soldiers now? There are videos out there and it looks like volkssturm material.

A blatantly false statement followed by an isolated data point being presented as somehow indicative of the general situation. In Operation Desert Storm the US was the attacking side. According to your logic they must have suffered more casualties then the defending Iraqis. This is the kind of garbage you try to pass off as argument. In modern wars attackers may suffer more casualties or less casualties depending on the specific circumstances. There is no general rule that the attacker will always suffer greater casualties. This has not been the case for a long time.
 
This argument has no connection to reality. The casualties of this war are not large enough to have demographic consequences (for either side) on a national scale and birth rates are not relevant to this discussion. Russia has a standing population of over 140 million people. Do you have any evidence that Russia is running out of men?

On a side note, you've talked about Russian demographics. They are bad. What do Ukrainian demographics look like? A war has two sides. Even if your underlying argument had merit (and it doesn't), applied consistently it would still not yield the conclusion you seem to find comfortable.
Please explain how more death than birth have no consequences? A country like Russia can not sustain such losses for a prolonged time.

1000099350.jpg

The war basicly erases roughly 2 years of male births so far. Ukraine is a buffer state for european security and as cold as it sounds, Ukraine sacrifice helps to buff Security for Europe. They kill their fighting age males in larger numbers than new ones are born.

The cynical reality is, the longer this drags out, the better for Europe. Killed russian soldiers cant be used in future wars against us. Wounded and crippled russian soldiers also cant be used and additional drain their resources.

From a pure machiavellian pov the current situation needs to drag as long as possible to allow Europe massive upscale in defense without have to worry too much about Russia.

Ukraine in that sense works as an ablative heatshield...
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Podoli, again...
I guess this explain the infiltration/attrition of this slow war. Two days ago...

Yesterday...

Today (we'll have to wait until tomorrow for globalsecurity)...

Petropavlivka has been occupied (consolidated, but not the whole build-up area), like part of Kindrashivka (and part under firm Ukrainian control like, funny enough, the east side of Petropavlivka; or no one there). There was another Russian advance into Radkivka, now (or all the time?) is a grey area.
 
Podoli, again...
I guess this explain the infiltration/attrition of this slow war. Two days ago...

Yesterday...

Today (we'll have to wait until tomorrow for globalsecurity)...

Petropavlivka has been occupied (consolidated, but not the whole build-up area), like part of Kindrashivka (and part under firm Ukrainian control like, funny enough, the east side of Petropavlivka; or no one there). There was another Russian advance into Radkivka, now (or all the time?) is a grey area.
So far the progress per day is between 15-70 meters. Thats slower than progress in the battle at the Somme in WW I and the slowest any military has progressed in a century.

Russia advance slower than battle of the Somme

Petropavlivka is a village with roughly 6000 people before that war. Russia started the offensive to take that village in november. It took 3 months to achieve that.

That extreme slow progress comes at the cost of very high losses both in soldiers and equipment.

That conflict is unique in that regard in history.
 
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