Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Unlikely, if the RCAF is looking for a replacement fighter aircraft which can be made NORAD compatible quickly and easily. It might be able to work if the RCAF wanted to or was willing to run two separate pools of fighter aircraft, one to meet NORAD missions and another which might only need to meet NATO standards.
Two jets might be an option if the IOTUS continues his BS. The political pressure to limit US kit may become an insurmountable problem.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
My thoughts of such a purchase would be that Canada could have its own production of such an aircraft not subject to foreign interreference in upgrades or usage
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
My thoughts of such a purchase would be that Canada could have its own production of such an aircraft not subject to foreign interreference in upgrades or usage
The practical problems with that is that any Canadian order would be rather small, so that the costs to setup the production facility would increase the costs per aircraft. Making this even worse is that the production run would also be fairly short meaning that after a few years the production line would stop and the facility would either close or need to be re-tooled to do something else, which in turn would mean that after a few years Canada would not be able to order more domestic production.

Also, trying to run a small fleet of well, anything really, and keep them upgraded can get quite expensive, especially if any/all upgrade programmes are only done domestically as opposed to part of a larger overall upgrade path or spiral development. If Canada were to start operating the Rafale for example, with perhaps 40-50 aircraft, and want to manage aircraft upgrades independently, that the costs and technical requirements to do so would be solely burden Canada. As expensive as some of the updates and upgrades to aircraft like the P-8 might be, the per aircraft cost for some of them is not really all that high, because at this point there is close to 200 aircraft in service worldwide.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
India of course has entered an agreement to manufacture the Rafale
.
I understood three hundred of the Rafale to have been built so far with more on order for other countries
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I understood three hundred of the Rafale to have been built so far with more on order for other countries
Right now it looks like a total of about 300 have been built, with perhaps 200 more on order or in production. This total is of all types and versions.

This could permit some economies of scale in terms of future upgrades, but only if the upgrades a given country sought were also being sought and done in conjunction with upgrades by other users/the majority of users.

Therefore, if Canada wished to maintain independence in terms of Rafale upgrades in terms of foreign interference, this would mean that Canada would need to be the one doing the development and upgrades which can be quite risky and expensive. Given how small a Rafale fleet the RCAF might operate, there would not be many aircraft to spread any upgrade development costs over which means both that Canada would likely have a high per aircraft cost upgrade, but also that other smaller Rafale users would probably be more apt to go with upgrades France/Dassault develops for the Rafale, which could very well be less expensive due to greater scale of upgrades.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Right now it looks like a total of about 300 have been built, with perhaps 200 more on order or in production. This total is of all types and versions.
299 reported built by end 2024. About 550 total orders, after allowing for secondhand sales.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This is duplicate post of my post in the F-35 international thread.

Nothing really new in this article about Canada's F-35 deal (or not). AFAIK, Canada is on the hook for 16 jets and would incur huge financial penalties by defaulting. Yes, a mixed fleet would be problematic but perhaps less expensive than 88 F-35s. One obvious solution the author doesn't mention, cut the order from 88 to 65 (the original proposed number). Guessing the number was raised to 88 due to the appalling readiness levels for the F-35.

A $28 Billion 'Bombshell': Canada's F-35 Deal is on the Rocks - National Security Journal
 

Sender

Active Member
This is duplicate post of my post in the F-35 international thread.

Nothing really new in this article about Canada's F-35 deal (or not). AFAIK, Canada is on the hook for 16 jets and would incur huge financial penalties by defaulting. Yes, a mixed fleet would be problematic but perhaps less expensive than 88 F-35s. One obvious solution the author doesn't mention, cut the order from 88 to 65 (the original proposed number). Guessing the number was raised to 88 due to the appalling readiness levels for the F-35.

A $28 Billion 'Bombshell': Canada's F-35 Deal is on the Rocks - National Security Journal
Actually, it was raised to 88 so that Canada could meet its NATO and NORAD commitments concurrently, and have some capacity left over for an additional tasking elsewhere. This is considered a minimum, and prior to the US tariff attack, there was very serious discussions about adding to the order. Given we're getting 16 no matter what at this point, to me it makes no sense from a training and logistical perspective to look at a mixed fleet.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Actually, it was raised to 88 so that Canada could meet its NATO and NORAD commitments concurrently, and have some capacity left over for an additional tasking elsewhere. This is considered a minimum, and prior to the US tariff attack, there was very serious discussions about adding to the order. Given we're getting 16 no matter what at this point, to me it makes no sense from a training and logistical perspective to look at a mixed fleet.
The training and logistics issues would be a somewhat of a concern but not a show stopper IMO. I think the operation costs along with crap readiness for the F-35 are equally of concern (also TR3/block 4 and ECU for the F135 engine delays). Trump's continuing BS really does provide Carney the opportunity to easily can the remaining 72 jets with little or no political domestic blowback, just my two cents.
 

Vanquish

Member
Canadians are really fed up with the US right now. The reality however is that we're fed up with Trump. Ordering any military equipment takes years generally to receive. I think Canada needs to look at the long game to when Trump is gone and as the US produces a lot of the equipment we urgently need it will be difficult to get away from purchasing from the US. I actually think Carney could use that as a bargaining chip though with Trump. We will purchase x millions of dollars of US equipment if you drop tariffs on steel and aluminum or we could spend a lot more of our money elsewhere and order similar equipment from the European Union or South Korea for example. Trump likes to make deals.

There is however still a lot of equipment we need from the US. For example the RCAF plans on retiring the remaining CC-130H and IMHO we should replace them and rather than buying an Embracer C-390 or an Airbus C-295 or A-400 we should keep commonality and purchase more CC-130J models. Thinking of Ukraine It must be hell for them to maintain, train and operate all the dissimilar military gear that it has received from supporting countries. NATO countries should agree to bulk purchase military equipment and just spread out where it's manufactured to help assuage hurt national feelings.

In regards to the F-35A's I would actually like to see Canada expand it's order to include F35B's. I know this is contrary to my argument of keeping similar equipment but in regards to ordering F35B models I believe they would be useful in Canada for a lot of the short field runways up north and in event of war more opportunity to disperse some aircraft. I know it's not that simple but Canada really does need to start taking self defense more seriously. Sorry about the rambling post.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Canadians are really fed up with the US right now. The reality however is that we're fed up with Trump. Ordering any military equipment takes years generally to receive.
Absolutely!!
I think Canada needs to look at the long game to when Trump is gone and as the US produces a lot of the equipment we urgently need it will be difficult to get away from purchasing from the US. I actually think Carney could use that as a bargaining chip though with Trump.[/QUOTE}

Depends on the kit, certainly there are viable alternatives from Germany and Korea wrt army kit. There are no bargaining chips with a proven pathological liar/felon like Trump!


There is however still a lot of equipment we need from the US. For example the RCAF plans on retiring the remaining CC-130H and IMHO we should replace them and rather than buying an Embracer C-390 or an Airbus C-295 or A-400 we should keep commonality and purchase more CC-130J models.
No, better to send a message , we won't automatically accept your kit. as for CC-130J replacements, C-390, A-400 should perhaps be looked at, better still, the Japanese C-2, something Australia and NZ might want to partner on.

With regards to the F-35A's I would actually like to see Canada expand it's order to include F35B's. I know this is contrary to my argument of keeping similar equipment but in regards to ordering F35B models I believe they would be useful in Canada for a lot of the short field runways up north and in event of war more opportunity to disperse some aircraft.
I can see merit in your suggestion and perhaps a conversion of the 16 F-35As to F-35Bs and then either buy more "A"s or something else. A really hard look at the Tempest program is also a must, America is no longer a trusted so options need to be explored. Trump may be gone before his term ends but the $hit he has created will last a generation at least assuming the US doesn't self destruct.

I know it's not that simple but Canada really does need to start taking self defense more seriously. Sorry about the rambling post.
Agree, there seems to be progress, both by government and the electorate. Time will tell, probably pretty quickly.
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