I see Feanor posted some Russian sources talking about the BDA, I will follow up with the non-Russian sources talking about it. Some of it, I presume, is the same stuff, but these are all original sources to the info presented.
First of all, the reports suggest that the weather didn’t cooperate and Belaya airbase was covered by clouds. No new stuff from there aside from the processed SAR images I cited yesterday. No news on Olenya either. I believe these are the only two bases of concern here as others did not sustain any damage, as described below.
There was a
report by Noelreports on Twitter suggesting that a A-50 was either destroyed or damaged at Ivanovo base:
The higher resolution image they cited:
I thought it was far from convincing and went looking at the original source, This is the satellite image of concern from the original source:
The A-50 in question can be seen above the centre. You can see another one with something similar, but to a lesser extent, which is the very last plane on the image, on the right.
Looking into this further provided me with the following:
So it appears that there actually may have been an attack on the Ivanovo base as well, but all they hit, if anything, was decommissioned planes with tires on them. Basically decoys. The author of the original post seemed to have agreed with the conclusion. Also, there was some confusion in regard to the video circulating from “Ivanovo”, which turned out to be the UA propaganda and later identified (and I believe geolocated) to be from Belaya.
Furthermore, the three piles circled in blue on the image were confirmed to had been there before the strike, one possibly being the Il-76 that crashed over a year ago.
To finish off the Ivanovo airbase, I concluded for myself that there was no attack there at all. The “burned” two planes are likely decommissioned planes with tires (and shadows) on them (that are apparently being moved around the base waiting for suckers?). This is pending further confirmation, but it seems pretty clear to me that no strike took place at Ivanovo. While a failure by the Ukrainians to recognize such targets as “decoys” is plausible, I very much doubt this is the case (especially provided reported 1.5 years worth of planning).
Next up is the Dyagilevo base. A few sources simultaneously confirmed that there was likely no damage of any kind. The only thing that was noted by two sources were the burn marks, which could be or not be that at all.
An image from another
source (the guy who processed the SARs yesterday):
This is an image from another provider (China) confirming the same (
source):
I actually had a third satellite image from yet another source (and provider), but now cannot find it (maybe I didn’t save it and I can’t remember the source to look it up again).
I personally do not see any conclusive evidence that any attack took place at Dyagilevo either. To simply assume that the presumed burn marks came from an FPV drone is ridiculous, in my opinion.
The last one is the Ukrainka base. Here we see some stretched conclusions, but really no evidence of any hits. This is a before image:
This one is after, claimed to be another destroyed Tu-95.
This is the original
source for the images and claims. Well, this is complete rubbish, in my opinion. Looks to me like the two airplanes were simply gone from where they were parked a few days prior. I guess we will wait for some conclusive evidence via better imagery.
We now also have claims by the European and the American “security officials” that as many as 20 planes were hit:
American and European security officials said battle damage assessments were still coming in from the attacks, which took place Sunday, but they estimated that as many as 20 Russian strategic aircraft may have been destroyed or severely damaged, dealing a serious blow to Russian’s long-range strike capabilities.
Officials said Russia’s losses included six Tu-95 and four TU-22M long-range strategic bombers, as well as A-50 warplanes, which are used to detect air defenses and guided missiles.
At this point, I am going to say “I don’t believe you”. The imagery from Belaya and Olenya are going to reveal it all basically (and I can’t wait).
Side note, for whatever reason this attack is being advertised as on the same level as the Israeli pager stuff. Is it though? Not even close, in my humble opinion. But to each their own, as the saying goes.
Another thing I remembered just now. The container(s) that exploded in one of the videos is now being advertised by the Ukrainians as “self destruction upon completion of the mission” or something along the lines. I really have no clue why this extra… I honestly don’t even know what to call it. These lies that basically ruin everything. Say that we hit two bases, about 10+ (or whatever) planes were damaged/destroyed, another thing didn’t go as planned and declare a victory, which it would be and is significant stuff. And this would not be because of some epic ingenuity, but due to the epic failure of the… well, starting with the Russian planning and preemptive measures, counterintelligence, etc and all the way down to the (again) road cops doing nothing while watching the drones buzzing out of the trailer. Anyway…
This is an interesting
thread on the subject from Tom Shugart from last year (he was called basically an idiot by some at the time):
Last two things. At least some of the planes so far confirmed destroyed (and allegedly destroyed) may not have been equipped to carry missiles that hit Ukraine on the regular basis:
Lastly, this is to be filed under humour:
Imagine it being considered “normal” when a “superpower” dumps a bunch of tires on its strategic bombers to protect them from threats in 2025. Laughing here. I always thought it was an insanity, just like drawing pictures of airplanes on concrete, but that above is really rather an icing on the cake, so to speak: “that’s normal - it’s just tires”. Crazy stuff, lol. Laughing here again.
www.theguardian.com
