The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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rsemmes
Active Member
Commando attacks against enemy installations (or ships) is an ancient tradition, mortaring airbases (or airports) is old news. Warfare is not changing, drones may be making things easier and cheaper; that's it.
As Feanor pointed out, military installations (not only airbases) are regularly patrolled or otherwise guarded, there is no point in carrying an EW-gun along the perimeter when you have to protect the aircraft. The psychological effect (not physiological) is to make a show of Russian incompetence, I wonder if in USSR times the base commander would have been shot.
Now, how far away from a military (or critical) installation is going to be forbidden to park a caravan in any EU country under the threat of a terrorist attack?
Then, coming back to reality, how many villages has Ukraine reconquered with those drones? Even if it's going to be long and expensive to replace those planes.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,243
We don't have a complete picture yet. I think we can confidently state that Ukraine hit 4 Tu-95s and 4 Tu-22M3s, and 1 An-12. These I think are the bottom estimates. It's likely they hit more.
EDIT: On a side note, the situation in Sumy region is deteriorating. It's strange, but it appears Russia is prioritizing the creation of a buffer zone in Sumy over their offensive efforts elsewhere. Of course another interpretation is that Ukraine isn't defending there as persistently. If things continue like this, Sumy as a city will be in trouble. Not so much that Russia would capture it, that's a long ways off, but more-so that the city will be on the front lines, and it's ability to function as a normal large city will be badly disrupted.
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
^ I read a few days ago that while Russia didn’t pull much of the resources from the ex-Kursk direction and added additional units recently, Ukraine had to move some to the Konstantinovka line because it was collapsing. What’s true, I don’t know. The disparity in manpower is very observable now though.
An epic victory from the SBU again today:
There is, of course, a nuance, as usually is the case:
I guess all one needs to know is that they are claiming to actually have destroyed the underground supports (!) of the bridge. If one has ever seen how bridges of this type are built, they would immediately realize how completely ludicrous the proposition is.
Like why these constant idiotic statements? Making yourself look like a clown over and over just for a 2-minute long celebration by the lemmings? What’s the benefit? Weird stuff.
On the airbase drone attacks. A few sources are claiming that they have viewed yet unreleased videos and confirming that at least two A-50 planes were hit. So there may have been a strike at Ivanovo hitting the “decoys” discussed yesterday. The video will soon be released they say, so we will see.
A satellite image from Olenya so far shows three destroyed Tu-95 and one An-12. I believe this is pretty consistent with the drone footage released immediately past the strike. The Belaya base is the only one remaining (unless more damage behind the cloud covered part at Olenya, but not likely, imo).
the image with better resolution:
Bloomberg is now reporting the the “security officials” that claimed 20 yesterday reduced their number to a more realistic “at least 11” damaged/destroyed airframes (notably avoiding the A-50 this time):
Western officials continued to assess the aftermath of the raid. The destruction was “substantial,” with at least seven Tu-95s and four Tu-22s damaged or destroyed, according to one senior official. The strike, broadcast widely on Russian social media, was successful in lifting morale in Ukraine, a European diplomat said.
The assessment also says:
While nobody is predicting that Sunday’s dramatic attack will change the course of Vladimir Putin’s war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy celebrated the “brilliant” covert operation.[…]
The damage inflicted on the warplanes is likely to rattle decision makers around Putin rather than shake up Moscow’s military aims. Only a few such bombers are needed for attacks on Ukraine, meaning that the pace of missile and bombing strikes won’t slow, according to people close to the Kremlin who spoke on condition of anonymity.[…]
Russia acknowledged that several aircraft were damaged, compared with Kyiv’s claim that more than 40 planes were hit. A person close to the Kremlin put the tally at closer to 10. Pro-Moscow military blogger Rybar, which has about 1.3 million Telegram subscribers, estimated that 13 aircraft were affected, most of them long-range bombers.[…]
Edit: Since I posted the above, I saw some reports pop up that it is actually the rail bridge that is “critical”. Well, I am going to insist on the clown show for now still since the explosion took place clearly on the far side of the main bridge (far side from the rail bridge).
An epic victory from the SBU again today:
There is, of course, a nuance, as usually is the case:
I guess all one needs to know is that they are claiming to actually have destroyed the underground supports (!) of the bridge. If one has ever seen how bridges of this type are built, they would immediately realize how completely ludicrous the proposition is.
Like why these constant idiotic statements? Making yourself look like a clown over and over just for a 2-minute long celebration by the lemmings? What’s the benefit? Weird stuff.
On the airbase drone attacks. A few sources are claiming that they have viewed yet unreleased videos and confirming that at least two A-50 planes were hit. So there may have been a strike at Ivanovo hitting the “decoys” discussed yesterday. The video will soon be released they say, so we will see.
A satellite image from Olenya so far shows three destroyed Tu-95 and one An-12. I believe this is pretty consistent with the drone footage released immediately past the strike. The Belaya base is the only one remaining (unless more damage behind the cloud covered part at Olenya, but not likely, imo).
the image with better resolution:
Bloomberg is now reporting the the “security officials” that claimed 20 yesterday reduced their number to a more realistic “at least 11” damaged/destroyed airframes (notably avoiding the A-50 this time):
Western officials continued to assess the aftermath of the raid. The destruction was “substantial,” with at least seven Tu-95s and four Tu-22s damaged or destroyed, according to one senior official. The strike, broadcast widely on Russian social media, was successful in lifting morale in Ukraine, a European diplomat said.
The assessment also says:
While nobody is predicting that Sunday’s dramatic attack will change the course of Vladimir Putin’s war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy celebrated the “brilliant” covert operation.[…]
The damage inflicted on the warplanes is likely to rattle decision makers around Putin rather than shake up Moscow’s military aims. Only a few such bombers are needed for attacks on Ukraine, meaning that the pace of missile and bombing strikes won’t slow, according to people close to the Kremlin who spoke on condition of anonymity.[…]
Russia acknowledged that several aircraft were damaged, compared with Kyiv’s claim that more than 40 planes were hit. A person close to the Kremlin put the tally at closer to 10. Pro-Moscow military blogger Rybar, which has about 1.3 million Telegram subscribers, estimated that 13 aircraft were affected, most of them long-range bombers.[…]
Edit: Since I posted the above, I saw some reports pop up that it is actually the rail bridge that is “critical”. Well, I am going to insist on the clown show for now still since the explosion took place clearly on the far side of the main bridge (far side from the rail bridge).
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,245
Latest tally from Russian sources confirms at least 6 Tu-95s destroyed, 1 damaged, 4 Tu-22M3s destroyed, two An-12s damaged. Again this is a bottom number, not a total, so just what's confirmed based on available imagery right now. Technically there could be issues with the images themselves that could theoretically drive this number down, but my suspicion is that the number will increase from this rather than decrease.
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Yes commandos have conducted long range strike ,but I would not be dismissing the impact and role of drones in warfare
One only needs to look at the number and variety of unmanned weapons in the Ukraine/ Russian conflict employed three years ago compared to today.
This concept of warfare has seen the worlds armed forces take note of these developments with the consequent rush to replicate and also defend against such systems.
This is a military revolution in every sense that will impact the force structure of services going forward.
The long range attack on the Russian airfields highlights the creative and varied employment of unmanned systems.
Cheers S
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,248
At first look it sounds strange. Here's what they hit. Check both links, one has the video, the other the location.
Fighterbomber
Тут два варианта. Либо это действительно подводный дрон, каким-то образом прошедший все линии бонов, боевых дельфинов и морских котиков, и прочих роботов — взорвавшийся на последнем их рубеже, либо это поработали боевые пловцы из кожи и мяса. И по каким-то причинам, не сумев преодолеть...
t.me
rsemmes
Active Member
Something I read in another forum:
- Over achieving drones. That was said about the 1982 Lebanon War when drones were used to bait Syrian SAMs. It was also said about Iraq and Afghanistan where drones took over the majority of sorties from manned aircraft, in the regular recon and strike missions.
- We've had "drone wars" many decades before the Ukraine war, with far more extensive use of drones than Ukraine and Russia are capable of together. And the supposedly new light drones and loitering munitions, well they existed since at least the late 80's.
(That, extensive use, was at the beginning of the war, a war that has evolved; as tanks evolved during WW2.)
- The importance of armour: "Whilst it will always remain a key pillar of any land force, it's never been as vulnerable in it's history as in this war." Wasn't that said when AT guns were invented? Or AT mines? Or HEAT weapons? Or the ATGM?
- Life expectancy of the tank: "The death of the tank will be preceded by the death of the attack helicopter, which isn't going anywhere." General Tal, IDF.
- A $1500 civilian fishing drone dropping grenades: Again, a modern weapon brought to an environment dominated by equipment much older than most of this forum's residents.
- Yes, these drones cost several hundred dollars each: But guess what? So does the jammer needed to kill it.
- I could keep going on and on regarding precision artillery, vulnerabilities in modern armour design not exposed to this extent in a modern war: I'm dying to hear this. What vulnerabilities? And please, only ones that weren't identified before I was born.
What revolution?
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Suchominius is claiming its the rail bridge based upon recent maintenance work:At first look it sounds strange. Here's what they hit. Check both links, one has the video, the other the location.
Fighterbomber
Тут два варианта. Либо это действительно подводный дрон, каким-то образом прошедший все линии бонов, боевых дельфинов и морских котиков, и прочих роботов — взорвавшийся на последнем их рубеже, либо это поработали боевые пловцы из кожи и мяса. И по каким-то причинам, не сумев преодолеть...
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
That’s not true according to many sources. The explosion occurred at the main/road bridge, not the rail, as indicated in my post above. The rail stuff was made up, from my understanding, after it was realized that the advertised “critical” damage never occurred. For example:
The image and video both appear to be taken from CCTV footage, with the latter bearing a timestamp for today at 06:22 local time.
The footage allowed us to geolocate the explosion to the eastern edge of the road bridge beneath an arched section.
Crimea bridge reopens after Ukraine says it carried out underwater explosion
Ukraine says it hit the bridge with underwater explosives - the crossing was built by Russia after it annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
www.bbc.com
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,252
No we haven't. There has not been a conflict up until this one where millions of drones per year were used.
A lot of big changes come not from today's shiny new stuff but from yesterday's stuff getting cheaper and more commonly available.
The revolution lies in the fact that it's now worthwhile to expend a guided munition (FPV drone) to hunt individual infantrymen. Concentration of any large elements is impossible. Btln-sized attacks are so rare they're basically one-offs, and only Russia seems willing to execute on them, given their high costs, and even then rarely. There is a distinct revolution here.
[QUOTKipPotapych, post: 455512, member: 45632"]
That’s not true according to many sources. The explosion occurred at the main/road bridge, not the rail, as indicated in my post above. The rail stuff was made up, from my understanding, after it was realized that the advertised “critical” damage never occurred. For example:
The image and video both appear to be taken from CCTV footage, with the latter bearing a timestamp for today at 06:22 local time.
The footage allowed us to geolocate the explosion to the eastern edge of the road bridge beneath an arched section.
www.bbc.com
[/QUOTE]
Your right on the location as to which transport was effected
www.twz.com
That’s not true according to many sources. The explosion occurred at the main/road bridge, not the rail, as indicated in my post above. The rail stuff was made up, from my understanding, after it was realized that the advertised “critical” damage never occurred. For example:
The image and video both appear to be taken from CCTV footage, with the latter bearing a timestamp for today at 06:22 local time.
The footage allowed us to geolocate the explosion to the eastern edge of the road bridge beneath an arched section.
Crimea bridge reopens after Ukraine says it carried out underwater explosion
Ukraine says it hit the bridge with underwater explosives - the crossing was built by Russia after it annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
www.bbc.com
Your right on the location as to which transport was effected
Ukraine Strikes At The Heart Of Russia's Highly Defended Kerch Bridge
This is the third time Russia's prized span connecting its mainland with Crimea has been successfully struck, although the extent of the damage is unclear.
www.twz.com
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I have now skipped through the video @vikingatespam posted and I see the man is saying that “it was earlier suggested that the explosion took place under the road bridge but it is now clear it was under the rail bridge” (this is not a direct quote, by the way, but the idea). I honestly don’t know. Every single (literally) actual geolocation I saw or the reports citing one pointed to the spot indicated in the article I cited (yours shows the same thing, I suppose). It is hard to imagine that everyone is wrong (I have no sufficient expertise here, so have to follow others’).Your right on the location as to which transport was effected
Ukraine Strikes At The Heart Of Russia's Highly Defended Kerch Bridge
This is the third time Russia's prized span connecting its mainland with Crimea has been successfully struck, although the extent of the damage is unclear.
What I myself saw happening on social media (Twitter): explosion -> bridge closed -> celebration of the critical condition and imminent collapse -> bridge opened -> silence -> the explosion was under the rail -> concrete actually started cracking (vertically) and they don’t know if it is fixable and other made-up stuff.
I am sure we will have more info if something significant had actually happened.
SBU insists that after reviewing “additional information from all the sources” and verifying it, 41 aircraft was destroyed (!!!). Just to reiterate, not damaged and destroyed, not affected, etc, but destroyed.
Looks like there is an epic compilation video coming our way or… I am heavily leaning towards the “or” myself. Besides the “duh” I can hear from some, my “heavy leaning” is also justified by this:
Can someone explain to me the benefits of the circus, ideally rationally? To note, they actually added 41 to their official count of the Russian planes Ukraine had (I guess I should add allegedly) destroyed. They are discrediting the entire thing here (if there was much to discredit to begin with, I guess).
Ukrainian Pravda released a good article, partially concerning Syrsky. Basically the “Butcher” nickname that was mentioned when he was appointed keeps checking out. This is a much shorter version in English:
Syrskyi Micromanages Troops and Ignore Losses
Despite successful strikes in Russia’s rear and significant enemy personnel losses, Russian forces continue to advance. Amid growing concerns over a potential summer offensive…
militaryland.net
This is the original in Ukrainian, for those willing to use the translate function to read:
Літній наступ Росії на фронті: де буде просуватися противник, і що послаблює позиції Сил оборони
У цьому тексті “Українська правда” розповідає, де може наступати Росія цього літа, і що прямо зараз послаблює позиції Сил оборони на фронті.
www.pravda.com.ua
The Pravda article is much better, of course, as it discusses the Russian summer offensive, problems Ukraine is facing, FPV situation, etc. The Military Land article only concentrates on the Syrsky bit.
Quite a few men were moved around today. The most interesting (and likely very beneficial for Ukraine) is the appointment of Madyar himself as the Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces. Kind of a big deal, I think.
Robert 'Madyar' Brovdi becomes Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces
Read more
Ukrainians detained a Russian mole who was passing coordinates, etc to the Russians. The guy was the commander of a platoon, apparently, had pro-Russian views, etc. The article is in English:
Russian mole exposed in Ukraine’s National Guard assault brigade
The Security Service of Ukraine has detained a 42-year-old conscript in Kharkiv who was serving in a National Guard assault brigade and working for the Russians.
www.pravda.com.ua
I wonder how he got enlisted. Is it the fruit of (very) forced mobilization, just a shit happens kind of thing… According to the report, all he was expecting in return was a safe passage to Russia, basically.
I mentioned in my earlier post that I read about Russians actually adding additional resources to the now Sumy direction instead of withdrawing them. Just wanted to add a source as a reference to the claim:
Thread by @WarUnitObserver on Thread Reader App
@WarUnitObserver: Russian units operating in Kursk/Sumy Oblast. Thread: Contrary to initial beliefs, most Russian units remained in Kursk and continued assault operations through April and May, with additional un...…
threadreaderapp.com
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
And there we have it, the Belaya satellite confirmation:
Source: https://x.com/MarcinRogowsk14/status/1930158440480919987
Source: https://x.com/MarcinRogowsk14/status/1930158440480919987
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
The symmetry of the bridge makes it not obvious to me, but regardless, if it was the vehicle bridge, the RU cannot possibly have performed a real inspection of the support that was hit. In anywhere in Europe or the US, if this event happened, the bridge would be closed for a few days at least , to allow for a thorough inspection.
rsemmes
Active Member
Evolution.
The massive use of artillery shells in WWI was a revolution? The massive use of everything in 1973 was a revolution? I would strongly disagree with those statements. The massive use of drones now, not in 2022, has been (surprisingly) unexpected for every army. There is an almost 24h surveillance of the battlefield and every move and position is going to be harassed, that is an increase (even a huge one) of something that was already happening; if we see the same increase in drone AD/fighters, maybe, it's going to change again.
We see a massive and refined use of tools that we already had, I am not going to call that a revolution; even if it was unexpected. (Each soldier being able to use a HEAT weapon was a revolution in WW2, HV 122mm AT rounds was not.)
I read of a salvo of artillery directed against an individual soldier in WW2, three times; that was an anecdote. If one side achieves drone superiority/drone supremacy (I don't think is going to happen in this war) battalion attacks will be back, as with air superiority/supremacy (or a btn advance, because enemy resistance would have been all but eliminated) and the other side will be deploying a lot of drone-AD and, probably, fighter-drones (drones-CAP?) That would be a possible evolution, as it was with air-warfare.
The massive use of artillery shells in WWI was a revolution? The massive use of everything in 1973 was a revolution? I would strongly disagree with those statements. The massive use of drones now, not in 2022, has been (surprisingly) unexpected for every army. There is an almost 24h surveillance of the battlefield and every move and position is going to be harassed, that is an increase (even a huge one) of something that was already happening; if we see the same increase in drone AD/fighters, maybe, it's going to change again.
I do agree, that is why I pointed out that it was referring to the beginning of the conflict.
I do agree. Those attacks against airbases could have been done with mortars (it has been done before), a lorry with a container with 12 or 36 one-round mortars. As I said, easier and cheaper with drones and, probably, more accurate. On the other hand, is an EW gun going to stop a mortar round, a drone-fighter? How accurate can a mortar round be, using GPS coordinates 1.000m from a target? More expensive for sure.
We see a massive and refined use of tools that we already had, I am not going to call that a revolution; even if it was unexpected. (Each soldier being able to use a HEAT weapon was a revolution in WW2, HV 122mm AT rounds was not.)
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,259
Updated tally from Russian sources have 7 Tu-9 destroyed, 1 damaged, 4 Tu-22M3 destroyed, 1 damaged An-12, 1 destroyed An-12, and two decommissioned A-50s hit.
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vk.com
Today, the SBU also released the full video. I haven’t counted everything — too lazy to deal with it. But maybe someone will find this info useful for their own calculations. Служба безпеки України
Olenya:
Ivanovo:
Dyagilevo:
"Belaya":
- 00:02, 00:07, 00:25 — Tu-95; explosion moment at 00:32
- 00:10, 00:37 — Tu-95
- 00:16, 00:46, 00:53 — Tu-95
- 00:21 — Tu-95
- 00:41 — Tu-95
- 00:57 — Tu-22
- 01:05 — Tu-22
- 01:12 — Tu-22
- 01:22 — An-12
Ivanovo:
- 01:31 — A-50
- 01:55 — A-50
Dyagilevo:
- 02:01, 02:10 — Tu-22
- 02:17 — Tu-22
- 02:20 — Tu-22
"Belaya":
- 02:31, 02:40 — Tu-22
- 02:49, 03:28 — Tu-22
- 02:52 — Tu-22
- 03:02 — Tu-22
- 03:08, 03:13 — Tu-22
- 03:22 — Tu-22
- 03:32 — Tu-22
- 03:47, 03:56 — Tu-22
- 04:05 — Tu-95
- 04:18 — Il-78
- 04:24 — Tu-95