The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

There has been talk that the month of May is the resumption of Russian offences similar to November of last year. I doubted this when those comments came out and monthly totals show that we're not at the 700+ sq km advances of November-December of last year. Deep state has Russian advances at ~449 sq km, War Reports at ~589. These numbers are closer to Sep of last year when Russian offensive was speeding up. In general May marks the resumption of fairly large scale Russian advances in terms of territory. I would point out that the advances are spread out more evenly now, with gains being made on the Oskol front, in Sumy, around Toretsk, and in the eastern pincer of Pokrovsk, as well as more modest gains in other areas. Despite the breakthrough made east of Pokrovsk, this has not turned into a collapse of the front the way it did for Ukraine after the fall of Ocheretino.


Sumy area.


Russian forces have continued to push southward in Sumy region, taking Kondratovka, Alekseevka, Yablonovka and Andreevka. They've also broadened the front again, taking Novokonstantinovka, to the west. Meanwhile near Tetkino Ukrainian attacks continue, and they've made an inroad from the south-eastern side near Zarya.


Another 11 villages in Sumy are to be evacuated.


Russian UCAV strike in Sumy region against allegedly military storage.


Russian strike burns an M109 in Sumy region. It may be a decoy.


Russia hit a bioethanol facility in Sumy region and the Novaya Pochta facility in Sumy city.


Russian Shaheds over Sumy.


Another destroyed CV90, and a 2S1 in Kursk region.


A Russian Su-35 was downed in Kursk region, details are lacking. Reportedly the pilot catapulted.


Russia is hauling away another captured M1 Abrams, an AVLB, and a Leo-2. Some sources report that Russia captured 2, but I can't tell if they're the same tank.


Kharkov area.

Russian forces continue to gain ground in Volchansk where Ukraine is losing ground north of the river.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces have captured Kondrashovka, approaching Kupyansk from the north. On the border Russian forces have taken the area between Stroevka and Topoli.


Russian strike hits a Ukrainian crossing point near Kupyansk.


Russia hits another BTR-4 near Kupyansk.


Russian drone strikes hit a 2S3 and 2S1 (or convincing decoys) Kupyansk area. They also hit something small, and a mortar position.


Russian drones hit a couple of unarmored vehicles from road ambushes, and a couple of MBTs in hidden positions, Kupyansk area.


Russian drone hits a Ukrainian engineering vehicle near Kupyansk.


Oskol front.

Russian forces have withdrawn from Torskoe again. Meanwhile across the Zherebets Russian forces have resumed offensive movements after a short pause. They've pushed out west of Redkodub into Karpovka, they've made a move to encircle Zelenaya Dolina from two sides, and have gained some ground north-west of Kolodezi.


A series of Russian strikes around Redkodub. They hit several unarmored vehicles, an M113, and a BTR-82A with a typical Russian roof cage. It's possible they're finishing off one of their own abandoned vehicles. It's also possible Ukraine captured a BTR-82A with roof cage intact and was using it.


A Ukrainian 2S22 destroyed near the village of Izyumskoe. This is just north-west of Russian positions in Redkodub.


Seversk salient.


Russian forces have pushed southward through the woods towards the Oskol river in the Kremenaya woods. This is well east of the Oskol front, and is likely aimed at establishing control of the north shore of the Oskol to support Russian pushes towards Seversk.


Russian Koksan SP artillery in the view of a Ukrainian drone, the woods west of Kremennaya.


Ukrainian MBT tries to pull out a stuck BTR-4, somewhere in the Serebryanskaya woods.


A Russian drone hits a mined Ukrainian bridge near Seversk.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Chasov Yar.

Russian forces continue to inch forward in Chasov Yar and have gained more ground in the claq quarry north of it.


Russian strike on a Krab howitzer or a convincing decoy near Vasyutinskoe, north of Druzhkovka.


Toretsk area.


Russian advances north-east of Toretsk continue with Russian forces advancing in both the village and rail station of Dyleevka, and capturing many fields in between. The Russian push north out of the holiday area by the lakes has also gained ground.


Russian Krot-1 UGV blowing up allegedly a Ukrainian cellar position, in Dyleevka.


Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces have taken all of Zarya, and are pushing into Yablonovka. They're also gaining ground south of it, in the fields. Towards Porkovsk itself, Russian forces have taken Shevchenko Pervoe and the fields around it. North of there, Russian forces are approaching the quarry complex west of Popov Yar. A Ukrainian counter-attack regained a treeline north of Mirolyubovka. Russian forces also continue to close the gap north of Yelizavetovka.


Russian drone strikes near Pokrovsk hit 3 MBTs, an unidentified target, an MRAP, a Pbv302, a Ukrainian position, an unarmored vehicle, and a retranslator antenna. It's interesting that two of the tanks have robust drone cages similar to ones we saw in mod'24 and later Russian upgraded T-72s and 80s. Maybe Ukraine copied the design, maybe they captured Russian tanks, maybe the video is misattributed and these are Russian tanks getting hit by Ukrainian drones.


Ukrainian XA-180 gets hit in the Yablonovka area east of Pokrovsk-Mirnograd.


A destroyed Ukrainian MaxxPro in Popov Yar.


Russian drones hit a BMP-1TS, a couple of Humvees, and several unarmored vehicles.


Russian bomb strikes in Novoekonomichnoe. This village remains a Ukrainian strong point east of Mirnograd.


Damage from a Russian strike to a bridge in Shakhovo, north of Popov Yar.


Russian Tor-M1 operations near Pokrovsk. It's also up-armored, and also with neat-looking and painted factory panels, but they don't match the previous up-armor kits we saw. Also Russian 2S5 Giatsint-S operations, note the soldier with the automatic shotgun.


Dnepropetrovsk axis.

Russian forces have pushed forward in Novosergeevka, approaching the Dnepropetrovsk border from the east. They've also inched forward west of Kotlyarovka. South of Bogdanovka Russian forces continue to advance through the fields. In general Russian efforts here seem to have slowed.


Russian forces are trying to enter Orekhovo again, from Troitskoe which is under Russian control. They contested the village earlier but were pushed out.


Russian drone hits allegedly a Caesar howitzer in Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russian gliding bomb strikes in Novopavlovka.


Ukraine has begun evacuations of civilians in Dnepropetrovsk region.


Velikaya Novoselka area.

Russian forces have taken Fedorovka and have entered Komar from the south and south-east. All of Novopol' is now under Russian control. The Ukrainian counter-attack north of Burlatskoe has been reversed, with Russian forces recapturing the area.


Russian bomb and artillery strikes on Komar.


Zaporozhye.

Russian forces have begun advancing on Malinovka in Zaporozhye region. I suspect this is an opportunistic move while Ukraine's focus is elsewhere. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have counter-attacked in Kamyanskoe, capturing south positions to the south-east of it.


Russian bomb strikes took out a bridge near Orekhov, to Preobrazhenka.


Russian bomb strikes on Stepnogorsk, on the Dnepr.


Dnepr front.

Russian strike on a Ukrainian boat on the Dnepr.


Russian strike hits a 2S22 near Tomina Balka, Kherson region.


A destroyed Ukrainian 2S22 in Kherson region.


Russia hit the city administration building in Kherson. Reportedly UPAB-1500 bombs were used.


Russian Shahed strikes landing in Kherson, allegedly targeting UAV storage.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russian strikes landing in Kiev. A power plant got hit as well as the Bol'shevik factory. These are two waves of strikes, at least.


A video that purports to show a Patriot position getting hit in Kiev. I'm not sold it isn't the same footage we saw earlier, and it does appear some sort of SAM position gets hit.


Russian strikes landing in Chernigov.


Russian strikes landing in Kharkov. The links represent 4 different waves of strikes, the latest of which was reportedly particularly large with over 50 impacts reported. Targets include the Komunar factory.


Russian Shahed strikes landing in Izyum. Reportedly a Novaya Pochta storage facility was hit.


Russian strikes on allegedly Ukrainian UAV launch locations in Chuguev, Kharkov region, and Krolevets and Voronezh of Sumy region.


Russian Shahed strikes landing in Slavyansk, targets unclear.


Russian strikes landing in Dnepropetrovsk.


Russian strikes hit a factory in Pavlograd.


Russian Iskander strike hits either an IRIS-T or a convincing decoy near Zhelobok, Dnepropetrovsk region. The missile is large, and it's a direct hit, so we can't really see secondaries or lack thereof.


Also in Dnepropetrovsk region, Russian Iskander strike hits the 239th Training Center. Reportedly 12 dead, 60 wounded.


Russian gliding bombs and Shaheds landing in Zaporozhye.


Russian Kinzhal strike hit something in Nikolaev.


Russia hit allegedly a Ukrainian SOF facility in Nikolaev region.


Russia hit storage facilities in Odessa. Targets include the port area.


Russian strikes landing in Ternopol'. Some sort of industrial targets were hit and power outages are reported. There are also unconfirmed reports of some sort of chemical spill as the result of the strike.


Russian strikes landing in Lutsk. Targets allegedly include the "Motor" factory, which is it's proper name, though not all sources agree.


Ukraine hit something near the Bryansk airport.


Also in Bryansk region Ukraine forces hit something. There are secondaries that indicate a system of some sort, Ukraine claims an Iskander but it could be an Uragan, or a Buk, or many others.


Ukraine hit a natural gas storage facility in Yenakievo.


Ukraine hit Russian fuel storage in Engel's, Saratov region.


A Ukrainian Chaklun drone hit a powerline support during the recent strike in Engel's.


It appears Ukraine hit powerplant targets in parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye region under Russian control, causing blackouts.


Ukraine hit Kursk, damaging an apartment building.


Ukrainian drones hit an apartment building in Ryl'sk, wounding 7 civilians.


Ukrainian drones reportedly downed over Voronezh.


Ukraine hit the town of Krasnodon, Lugansk region, with SCALP missiles. The targets were buildings in the industrial area, likely some sort of military storage.


Damage to the drone production facilities in Duban, from the Kronstadt company.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

It appears a Ukrainian infiltrator team blew up a road bridge over a rail line just as a passenger train was passing through. Reportedly 7 civilians are dead, 104 wounded. It's not clear if Ukraine is indeed responsible, this looks like a terrorist attack. On the other hand a Ukrainian infiltrator team was reported in the area but managed to break away from Russian security forces engaging them, shortly before this happened. Ukraine has blown rail bridges in Russia before. At almost the same time, another rail bridge in Kursk region was blown, as a cargo train was passing over. It's not clear what the train was carrying. The rail lines in question were repaired and put back into service within a week.


An interesting video has emerged that purports to show a Russian recon team from the 22nd MRRgt stealing a LAV Bison from a Ukrainian crew that stepped out.


As part of Russian development of UAV counter-measures to Ukrainian UAV interceptors, the Skat-350 UAVs can now also dodge incoming interceptor drones.


Another interesting drone development, a Molniya drone carrying an FPV drone on its back. It appears to still have its own payload too.


DPRK systems continue to show up in Russian service. We have 60mm and 140mm mortars, and a small MLRS.


It appears Russia has started using a new UR-305UD missile, a variant of the Izd. 305. It's range has gone up from ~14km to 25kms.


A new trend has emerged with Russian tanks using wires or spikes to entagle FPV drones, instead of the typical "shed" protection.


Ukrainian National Guard Lyut' Bde with ex-Yugoslav Nora-A howitzers in service. They appear to have been sourced from Bosnia.


Ukrainian soldiers have been spotted with a rare Russian RPG-30. The RPG-30 was designed to overcome APS by firing a small imitator projectile in front of the main munition.


Serbian munitions continue to show up in Ukrainian service.


There are reports that Ukraine is building a massive new defense line far behind the current front lines.


There are reports that over 400 000 inquiries on missing persons from Ukraine have been submitted to the Red Cross from families in Ukraine. Russian commentators interpret this to mainly be KIA service members whose bodies were not recovered, but it's far from obvious that this is what that means. There are a large number of unrecovered Ukrainian war dead in Russian-held areas. Given that Russia hasn't even cleared UXO or mines from Mar'inka, a suburb of Donetsk, it's likely Ukrainian KIAs are only being collected in places where they're actively causing an issue. Elsewhere they're probably left where they lie.

 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I found another movie on the airfield strikes I have not seen before.


In this one it appears the carrier truck had no roof at all.

I also found this pic on facebook, but no proper attribution or link that I could use. Could be a fake (but it looks real).

1749323317772.png

Su-35 downing by F-16 ? That would have to be a long range AA missile, wouldnt it ?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I found another movie on the airfield strikes I have not seen before.


In this one it appears the carrier truck had no roof at all.

I also found this pic on facebook, but no proper attribution or link that I could use. Could be a fake (but it looks real).

View attachment 52962

Su-35 downing by F-16 ? That would have to be a long range AA missile, wouldnt it ?
Not necessarily. We don't have a location on the downing, and Kursk region borders Ukraine. It could also be downed by a Ukrainian SAM battery in ambush, by a collision with a UAV, by friendly fire, by mechanical failure, by pilot error. There's too little information for now.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
There are reports that Ukraine is building a massive new defense line far behind the current front lines.
Reading that, I couldn't but remember this:
"The King is reshaping his army and is having manufactured a great number of long spears and halberds of the German type. If he could also manufacture men to handle them, he would no longer need anyone else’s services." (Melchor Russ Von Luzern.)
Will Ukraine have the men and weapons to man them at the right moment? (Even if it's better to have them built.)

Also, I wonder if Zelenski will request an energy-truce again. Maybe before winter?
 

kromak

New Member
The revolution lies in the fact that it's now worthwhile to expend a guided munition (FPV drone) to hunt individual infantrymen. Concentration of any large elements is impossible. Btln-sized attacks are so rare they're basically one-offs, and only Russia seems willing to execute on them, given their high costs, and even then rarely. There is a distinct revolution here.
In my opinion, this is mostly due to incompetence from both Russia an Ukraine. A battalion size should easily be able to locate any drone at least, hundred of meters of distance, if not at one kilometer or more, disperse, and start opening fire while any drone would take many seconds, if not more than one minute to arrive.

With this time/distance, it should not have many issues to take down a single drone down, or even a few.
And that's not considering using heavy machine guns or anything more sophisticated to do the job.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
In my opinion, this is mostly due to incompetence from both Russia an Ukraine. A battalion size should easily be able to locate any drone at least, hundred of meters of distance, if not at one kilometer or more, disperse, and start opening fire while any drone would take many seconds, if not more than one minute to arrive.

With this time/distance, it should not have many issues to take down a single drone down, or even a few.
And that's not considering using heavy machine guns or anything more sophisticated to do the job.
Haha. This is most definitely not the case. These two incompetent sides have been doing this for the last few years, going through the entire evolution of this type of warfare. Frankly, no one else has done or gone through anything like this. I am sure both sides are hiring volunteers (or “well paid” contractors) though that could give them tips and show them how this is done on the competent level. Maybe ask the Americans and other westerners fighting in the Chosen Company and the Foreign Legion (is that the name?) in Ukraine.

This perception of Russians and Ukrainians (though by way less people in the case of the latter) being just meat and fighting WW1 type of stuff is very unhealthy. I would wager a good amount of money that if you put your described battalion of any other military in the middle of it, without proper introduction and training, regardless whose side they fight for, they would likely get picked off rather quickly by the opposing side. Some would probably have more success than others, I am fairly certain they would all get wiped out in the end, for the most part, if they persist.

Also, imagine someone knows a secret and not telling Ukraine (or Russia, for that matter) how to do better, but letting them get slaughtered instead.


An article on the subject of revolution. It is in French though, so you would have to use the translate function. The article itself is a brief, there is a pdf link within for the full report (also in French).


It is a very good read. Once reviewed, the author mentioned he will post the English version that he had already prepared and I will cite it here unless I forget.


I would love for this to be true, but its difficult to destroy a tank or locomotive or other heavy equipment unless it burns. I am waiting for some sort of confirmation before I celebrate.
Agreed. So far, things don’t look good. From the same thread cited above:

IMG_0628.jpeg

IMG_0629.jpeg

And there is a lot more. Intelschizo is an interesting account to follow, but he gets excited overly easily and is often enough straight up wrong.


Edit: on the downed Su-35. No new info has been presented so far, but

IMG_0630.jpeg

From what I can see, everyone claims it to be an ambush that the Ukrainians had set up.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In my opinion, this is mostly due to incompetence from both Russia an Ukraine. A battalion size should easily be able to locate any drone at least, hundred of meters of distance, if not at one kilometer or more, disperse, and start opening fire while any drone would take many seconds, if not more than one minute to arrive.

With this time/distance, it should not have many issues to take down a single drone down, or even a few.
And that's not considering using heavy machine guns or anything more sophisticated to do the job.
How exactly do they locate it in your hypothetical? We've seen drones quiet enough and fast enough for there to be split seconds between dispersed infantry identifying the drone and then getting hit, and that's in the open. How do you do it in terrain, trees or buildings?
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
A very short thread on the drone efficiency as far as infantry (or anyone else out there) is concerned, from a day or two ago. It starts like this:

I spent over 100 hours compiling and analyzing over 5,000 videos of soldiers trying to escape UAV drones — pulling material from Telegram, Reddit, and other sources. Here is what i found out.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Update.

There has been talk that the month of May is the resumption of Russian offences similar to November of last year. I doubted this when those comments came out and monthly totals show that we're not at the 700+ sq km advances of November-December of last year. Deep state has Russian advances at ~449 sq km, War Reports at ~589. These numbers are closer to Sep of last year when Russian offensive was speeding up. In general May marks the resumption of fairly large scale Russian advances in terms of territory. I would point out that the advances are spread out more evenly now, with gains being made on the Oskol front, in Sumy, around Toretsk, and in the eastern pincer of Pokrovsk, as well as more modest gains in other areas. Despite the breakthrough made east of Pokrovsk, this has not turned into a collapse of the front the way it did for Ukraine after the fall of Ocheretino.
I was going to reply to you on that for a few days now, but never got around to it.

A few various sources talking about the Russian advances in May:

IMG_0383.jpeg

447 sq km, according to that one. The source is here: https://x.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1929178621492576543

IMG_0633.jpeg

449 sq km, according to Deepstate: ✙DeepState✙

IMG_0631.jpeg

538 sq km, according to these guys: https://x.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/1930173556605775875.

So you were right, it is not up to the last November level. But it is getting up there again. I also find this data not entirely a proper description of the situation though. This is mainly due to everyone counting the progress of occupation and no one adding the actual Russian advances, which included Kursk. Those graphs would look very different with those numbers included.


Another map from the first source cited above (as of June 6) concerning the Ukrainian holdings in Russia (yellow) and Russian holdingSumy now (on red). Also noted is the length of the frontline.

IMG_0632.jpeg

It is rather weird that to me that Russia is now occupying about (or at least) 200 sq km of Sumy and Ukraine is attacking elsewhere in the area.
 
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