Indonesian Aero News

[Sandhi Yudha]

Indonésie : Client du Rafale, l'Indonésie se tourne vers la Chine pour acquérir d'autres avions de chasse

Selon nos informations, l'armée de l'air indonésienne a donné son accord de principe pour acheter 42 avions de chasse J-10 à la Chine. Si le contrat devenait ferme et définitif, ils voleraient aux

www.intelligenceonline.fr

42 seems the magic number. 42 Rafale now negotiating for 42 J-10C. 24 F-15ID still also in negotiation. However if 42 now become the magic number, why don't also take 42 F-16V.

42 Rafale, 42 J-10C, 42 F-16V or 24 F-15ID. Because, why not. If India only have Rafale and Pakistan only have J-10C, why don't emulate Egypt and have both in inventory. Because, why not.

Meteor, PL-15 and AIM-120, because again why not.

Add: Some rumours talk the budget allocation for that J-10C, are coming from allocation that supposedly goes to KF-21 procurement.

The ex-Qatari Mirage 2000-5s are definitive canceled, right?
Or do they plan for a mixed of
42 Rafale + 24 Mirage 2000-5
42 F-16 + 24 F-15EX
42 T-50i + 24 Su-27/-30
42 JF-17 + 24 J-10C ?

TNI-AU fleet strategy.

An airforce specially created for airshows with a unique mixed fleet of unique models... all unarmed of course.... and only flying twice a year.

 

[Ananda]

Macron now in Indonesia, so let's see the result. Got feeling in the end Frenchie, Turkiye and Italia will get biggest portion, while some US and China procurement will happen for balancing Geopolitics and Investment nature.

Macron ke RI, Indonesia-Perancis Bakal Jalin Kerja Sama Pembelian Pesawat Tempur-Kapal Selam

Menteri Pertahanan Indonesia dan Perancis siap tanda tangani kerja sama pertahanan alutsista strategis. Kunjungan Macron jadi momentum penting.

nasional.kompas.com

Minister of Defence allready stated there will br signing agreement on 'strategic' systems with Frenchie during Macron visit. Potentially to launch Scorpene program is one of the loudest rumours. Additional Rafale is being talk for some time before.

ex-Qatari Mirage 2000-5s are definitive canceled, right?

Well it is part of rumours that I also heard. The money for 12 Qatar Mirage 2000-5 will be use to add at least 6 Rafale and to make 16 per squadrorn of 3, instead present number of 14 per Sq. However some also say the Qatar Mirage project still on going. Still the 1st batch budget of 6 using Su-35 money, and who knows there will be 4th batch of 6 using Mirage 2000-5 money.

For me, back to money trail availability again. Indonesia don't have unlimited budget. Hopefully F-15EX that give, and procure AW&C and Helicopters instead. Right now, the lobby is intensified, that's why this all conflicting rumours. In the end there are always budget reality.

 

[Ananda]

https://x.com/SebLecornu/status/1927644927514579291?s=09

L’Indonésie confirme sa confiance dans l’excellence de l’industrie de défense française !


À l’occasion de la visite d’État d’@EmmanuelMacron, signature avec mon homologue d’une lettre d’intention portant sur l’acquisition future :


de Rafale supplémentaires à @Dassault_OnAir


de frégates légères et sous-marins Scorpène supplémentaires à @navalgroup


de canons CAESAR supplémentaires et leurs munitions à @KNDS_France

Well it is still Letter of Intent on:

1. Adittional Rafale,
2. Adittional Caesar SPG,
3. Adiitional Scorpene and Light Frigate.

So all additional of existing order, which bring to talk on Light Frigate. There's no existing contract of NG Light Frigate. Some in here talk on FDI, but is FDI on Light Frigate category in Naval Group ? As Light Frigate seems also refer by NG on their larger Gowind design, like Gowind 3100 that become Malaysian LCS.

So it is still intention, and in Indonesia means longer term. It is more politically show case, and potentially will not happen in this term. So unles Prabowo win second term, it is in my suspicion more or less stay as intention. This term Frenchie seems more getting what already under contract like 42 Rafale and hopefully building of 2 Scorpene.

 

[Ananda]

Few Hours ago Defense Minister Sjafrie on-line accounts put this. Seems after that being taken out then rerelease without any mentioning of J-10. This is the post on his meeting with Indonesian Ambassador in Beijing.

Well, even the Defense Minister staff already remove mention on J-10, but some of local medias already taking that, and put it in their article. Something that should be a lesson on any Staff that handle his bos social media account. Once being put, already been seen.

https://www.tribunnews.com/nasional/2025/05/30/menhan-dan-dubes-ri-untuk-rrt-bahas-rencana-pelatihan-pilot-tni-au-terkait-pesawat-tempur-j-10

https://www.jawapos.com/nasional/016079728/bertemu-dubes-indonesia-untuk-tiongkok-menhan-sjafrie-sjamsoeddin-bahas-pelatihan-pesawat-tempur-j-10-untuk-pilot-tni-au

There are also conflicting rumours on which version of J-10 being talk with China. The rumours that circulate:

1. It is brand new J-10C,
2. Second hand J-10A/B
3. Second hand AL-31 engine J-10C.

Rumours being rumours, but for me (as seems J-10 increasingly become real deals anyway), hopefully it will be #3. Seems some planners think, well since Rafale and J-10C now already "battle proven", let's have them both. Some talks say those AL-31 engined J-10C are being push asside as PLAF want to focus J-10C with their own WS-10 engine. So they are willing to give them on cheap prices, and TNI-AU already more familiar with AL-31.

Will this means Mirage 2000-5/9 ex Qatar or UAE Will also join? As more Rafale coming, thus more Frenchie logistics ? Well why not, the more the merrier. Get those Mirage 2K, get more Flankers, get more Chinese J-10C. Let's make everyone happy. Afterall Indonesian politics is to make everyone involve in the deals.

In the end the goal keeper are finance guys that decided which one from those deals that can be afforded and become effective contracts.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It took many, many years of negotiations until the definitive contract was signed for the Rafale. It would be weird if the acquisition of the J-10 (second hand or new) is suddenly be done in an instant, only because of the India-Pakistan conflict.

 

[x100 XKR]

It took many, many years of negotiations until the definitive contract was signed for the Rafale. It would be weird if the acquisition of the J-10 (second hand or new) is suddenly be done in an instant, only because of the India-Pakistan conflict.

After the dud C705 missiles, the malfunctioning Giant Bow cannon and the TD2000 Vshorad, I am still amazed that the current administration still exploring Chinese made hardware .......

 

[koxinga]

We will likely get more clarity and details in Indo Defense Expo mid June.

 

[Ananda]

Yes, 11-14 June there will be more clearance on what deals will be signed on. Still this year Indo Defence (officialy still call Indo Defence 2024 as this supposedly biannual events), will not guarantee all what signed will become effective contracts. However as previous IndoDefence shown, mostly will.

As J-10, just like Flankers is not be TNI-AU choices, but more political choices from administration. However if the talk on interim fighters still being put by MinDef, then 2nd hand J-10 with AL-31 engine is relatively better then choices of Chinese Ships and Submarines. This as political demand for Russian and Chinese defense items seems still have strong political lobby.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

After the dud C705 missiles, the malfunctioning Giant Bow cannon and the TD2000 Vshorad, I am still amazed that the current administration still exploring Chinese made hardware .......

I never have heard about malfunctionings or other bad things of the QW-3 / QW-19 MANPADS of the airforce. I wonder how good they are.

Yes, 11-14 June there will be more clearance on what deals will be signed on. Still this year Indo Defence (officialy still call Indo Defence 2024 as this supposedly biannual events), will not guarantee all what signed will become effective contracts. However as previous IndoDefence shown, mostly will.

As J-10, just like Flankers is not be TNI-AU choices, but more political choices from administration. However if the talk on interim fighters still being put by MinDef, then 2nd hand J-10 with AL-31 engine is relatively better then choices of Chinese Ships and Submarines. This as political demand for Russian and Chinese defense items seems still have strong political lobby.

Well, in that case it can be a good deal if Indonesia buy those second hands J-10 with AL-31 engines, just as a cheap source for AL-31 spare parts.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia buy those second hands J-10 with AL-31 engines, just as a cheap source for AL-31 spare parts.

Got this from open source that being circulate online. According to source it is base on Airplane Spotters, Information on upgrade and maintenance and those who haven't been spotted flying for more than a month. They claim this possition by end of this month.

Perhaps not all accurate but seems the not flying condition of the Flankers are also being comfirmed by those enthusiats that live close to Hasanuddin AB in Makasar. This shown close to 60% readiness for F-16, while only around 20% for the Flankers.

I have heard for J-10 lobby for sometime. From what I heard it is also connected to deal on helping TNI-AU Flankers readiness. TNI-AU Mk2 from my understanding shares similarities with PLAF Mk2. So if the deal is also for PLAF inventories of AL-31 and also AL-31 engineed J-10B and Early C, then perhaps it is has some ground for non Western sources interim fighters.

Politically some Indonesian factions have continue demand sourcing Fighters from Western and Non Western sources. Despite the talk from Russian Ambasaddor Menhan Sjafrie Terima Sekretaris Dewan Keamanan Rusia, Bahas Pembelian Sukhoi SU-35? on Su-35 contract still not yet cancelled, and there're talks to bring it back. However the question now is the reliability of Russian Supply Chain. For that after see some rumours and potential China deals, and TNI-AU Flankers readiness, I do suspect China supply chain being bring in to augment Belarusia supply chains (that used unofficialy from what I heard as Rosoboron agents too).

The lists of TNI-AU fast jets also shown deteriorating readiness from Hawk 200/100 while readiness for TA-50 is around similar ball park with F-16. In sense this is make some sense, why most exercise that involve fast jets, mostly use F-16, TA-50, then Hawk 200. Hawk 200 is being prepare to be replace by Rafale. If the situation readiness on those Flankers not improving, perhaps those J-10 being source as Flankers replacement.

The F-16 C/D are slotted to upgrade using TAI Ozgur program. This is also why Mirage 2000-5 ex Qatar still being consider. Some say as stop gap while F-16 C/D being upgrade to Ozgur standard. Either way, this is just shown why TNI-AU love their F-16, and why personally I'm still hoping they ditch F-15EX and get 32-48 F-16V instead 24 F-15EX/ID.

 

[koxinga]

Re availability of the SU, it is not a surprise. RMAF have issues with low availabilities and high cost of maintenance for years. They have invested in internal capabilities for MRO (something I have not seen Indonesia do) along with finding alternative supply chains (India, Ukraine, Belarus)

Malaysia air force says low maintenance rate of fighter jets partly due to lack of operating funds

The Malaysian air force has said that the low maintenance rate of its Russian fighter jets was partly due to a lack of sufficient operating funds, Malaysiakini news site reported on Friday (Aug 3). Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

https://www.malaysiandefence.com/sukhoi-service-technical-centre-inaugurated/

I can understand why short term replacements are needed; with the Ozgur upgrade, it will tax whatever existing airframes available now, creating a vicious cycle

 

[Ananda]

Peresmian Unit Sukhoi Sathar 32 di Lanud Sultan Hasanuddin

AIRSPACE REVIEW (airspace-review.com) - Danlanud Sultan Hasanuddin Marsma TNI Benny Arfan, M.MP., MMDS., MSS., mendampingi Dankoharmatau

www.airspace-review.com

They have invested in internal capabilities for MRO (something I have not seen Indonesia do) along with finding alternative supply chains (India, Ukraine, Belarus)

The MRO facility in Hasanudin AB (home base of the Flankers) was open in 23. So there's investment for Sukhoi MRO but under investment compare to other types in TNI-AU inventory support systems.

There's talk to get PLAF J-11 (as support to existing Flankers), but seems somehow this now change to J-10. So there are efforts to get alternative supply chain outside Russia for Flankers support. Now they (TNI-AU) relied more to Belarussian. They have before try Ukrainian, but seems Belarusian condidered more reliables.

All this shown that in my oppinion, Flankers are the type that gives more headache to maintain for TNI-AU. Thus any effort to get more Flankers will be more politics in nature, and will not bring much comfort to TNI-AU overall readinees in long run. Whether Chinese J-10 can shown more reliable supply chains support, remain to be seen.

 

[x100 XKR]

Peresmian Unit Sukhoi Sathar 32 di Lanud Sultan Hasanuddin

AIRSPACE REVIEW (airspace-review.com) - Danlanud Sultan Hasanuddin Marsma TNI Benny Arfan, M.MP., MMDS., MSS., mendampingi Dankoharmatau

www.airspace-review.com

The MRO facility in Hasanudin AB (home base of the Flankers) was open in 23. So there's investment for Sukhoi MRO but under investment compare to other types in TNI-AU inventory support systems.

There's talk to get PLAF J-11 (as support to existing Flankers), but seems somehow this now change to J-10. So there are efforts to get alternative supply chain outside Russia for Flankers support. Now they (TNI-AU) relied more to Belarussian. They have before try Ukrainian, but seems Belarusian condidered more reliables.

All this shown that in my oppinion, Flankers are the type that gives more headache to maintain for TNI-AU. Thus any effort to get more Flankers will be more politics in nature, and will not bring much comfort to TNI-AU overall readinees in long run. Whether Chinese J-10 can shown more reliable supply chains support, remain to be seen.

So, to keep Flankers flying, they plan to buy another set of airplanes that just happened to use the same engines, but have completely different avionics, ordnance, flying characteristics ~ means different training curriculum and for sure - operational doctrine. Even by madness standard, this is like saying 'hold my beer!' to madness itself ......

 

[Ananda]

they plan to buy another set of airplanes that just happened to use the same engines, but have completely different avionics, ordnance,

I think the problem is the reliability of Russian Supply Chain this time around. All that I wrote are speculations base on rumours, but also supported on the Flankers servicebility condition it self on TNI-AU inventory. The way I see it they are looking on any possible and affordable supply chains to keep those Flankers flying on good servicable situation.

They opted to Belarusian supply chains, but seems perhaps they need another supply chains to augment that. That's why the talk before from what I heard is getting J-11 to leverage Chinese supply chains. As J-11 is underlicense Flanker and (from what I heard) shares similarities with TNI-AU Mk2. Why then now the talk with China move to J-10 is anybody guess. Which is why I think possibilities of J-10 as Flankers replacement, but that just my personal speculations.

Russian still hoping Indonesia reviving Su-35 contract, but with Russian supply chain realibilities is still questionable, personally I have doubt. Still with many sales lobby and political support behind them, who knows.

 

[koxinga]

So, to keep Flankers flying, they plan to buy another set of airplanes that just happened to use the same engines, but have completely different avionics, ordnance, flying characteristics ~ means different training curriculum and for sure - operational doctrine. Even by madness standard, this is like saying 'hold my beer!' to madness itself ......

Well, the Mirage 2000-5 acquisition is all that plus different engines, right? So this is no worse logistically.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

So, to keep Flankers flying, they plan to buy another set of airplanes that just happened to use the same engines, but have completely different avionics, ordnance, flying characteristics ~ means different training curriculum and for sure - operational doctrine. Even by madness standard, this is like saying 'hold my beer!' to madness itself ......

Hopefully they just remove the engines for spareparts, and then donate the airframes to musea and technical schools.

 

[x100 XKR]

Well, the Mirage 2000-5 acquisition is all that plus different engines, right? So this is no worse logistically.

Sort of, but some of the ordnance are similar: AASM, Mica, Scalp, Exocet, probably similar targeting pods as well .... so some cross training there. The operational doctrine is perhaps closer to other western systems.

My negative impression is driven by some bias as well admittedly, looking at past performance of Chinese ordnance.

But in the ens, what the heck do I know? I am just a mere enthusiast .....

 

[koxinga]

It seems the LoI is for 18 more Rafales

Indonesia signs letter of intent to buy 18 more Rafale jets, expanding defence ties with France

On 28 May, Indonesia signed a letter of intent expressing its intention to acquire additional Rafale fighter jets from French manufacturer Dassault Aviation.

defence-industry.eu

 

[Ananda]

The talk of this another batch still varied from 6, 12, up to 18. There's even talk on 100 Rafale with 40+ being assembly in DI as alternative of assembly IF-21 (KF-21 Indonesian version). So more Rafale can be bad news for IF-21. Seems Dasault making good impression on their commitment for off set program and support local industry PTDI-Press Release-PTDI dan Dassault Aviation Resmikan Design Office untuk Dukung Program Rafale PTDI dan Dassault Aviation Resmikan Design Office untuk Dukung Program Rafale, something that important points against competition.

Still too many lobbyist right now, and too many political consideration. There's Turkiye Lobby that offer Ozgur upgrade for F-16 and later on involvement with their KAAN, there's ROK that still fighting for KF/IF-21, there's China that (from rumours) offer to off load all their JF-10B but will be upgraded with J-10C AESA radar, there's Gulf lobby that offering 12 ex Qatar and potential 12 more ex UAE Mirage 2K. Russia try to keep Su-35 open again, Off course not forgetting Trump insistance for Boeing got piece of pie

While in the same time the budget in the end will not move much. The Government continue aim for more efficient bureaucracy costs, and means in the end there will be limit on whose going to be choose. Seems the ones that can provide more off set and industrial support, will get advantage politically. In the end as always political points that will determine more against defense users consideration.

 

[SABRE]

I think the problem is the reliability of Russian Supply Chain this time around. All that I wrote are speculations base on rumours, but also supported on the Flankers servicebility condition it self on TNI-AU inventory. The way I see it they are looking on any possible and affordable supply chains to keep those Flankers flying on good servicable situation.

They opted to Belarusian supply chains, but seems perhaps they need another supply chains to augment that. That's why the talk before from what I heard is getting J-11 to leverage Chinese supply chains. As J-11 is underlicense Flanker and (from what I heard) shares similarities with TNI-AU Mk2. Why then now the talk with China move to J-10 is anybody guess. Which is why I think possibilities of J-10 as Flankers replacement, but that just my personal speculations.

Russian still hoping Indonesia reviving Su-35 contract, but with Russian supply chain realibilities is still questionable, personally I have doubt. Still with many sales lobby and political support behind them, who knows.

I do not think China can export J-11, licensed version of the Su-27. J-11B, the more advanced variant is reverse-engineered aircraft by China, but it also cannot be exported because of the Chinese commitment to Russia. Same extends to J-16 and J-15. J-10C is an excellent platform in its own right, has proven it self in combat, and the supply chain is open for export. From what I have heard Indonesia wants used J-10C. I don't know if PLAAF has any surplus C variants to sell. Perhaps it would be willing provide some on a lease but I wonder how much exclusive technologies these aircraft have and how much China can and would remove from them. IMO, its best to get brand new J-10CE instead.