Indonesian Aero News
- Thread starter Ananda
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Indeed. They already have American (F-16) and Russian (Su-27 and Su-30) jets and are adding French (Rafale) to the inventory. Best to stick with these, and tbh, Rafales F4 is a pretty good aircraft.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
If China decided to export Russian reversed engineered jets, what can Russia do about realistically? Just asking. Pretty sure Putin has to “bend the knee” to Xi now.
This topic, with respect to the Indonesian Air Force has been discussed to death. They see balancing geopolitical risks as more important point than logistical nightmare.
And the BAE Hawks (British). The talk of replacements is targeted at the Hawks.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Thanks for that info, I try to see old rumours again. Seems not clear whether it is China that offer J-11 or Indonesia that shown interest to J-11, but then the talks change to J-10. I got it if J-11 has export limitation as it is underlicense agreement. However J-15 and J-16 are you sure have bound to export limitation ? As they are basically just like J-6 and J-7 is unlicense development.
As what J-10 type that China offering, still not clear yet. From what I heard and suspect it is also part of this 'interim' fighters straregy. This strategy has grown from getting Austrian Euro Typhoon, Qatar Mirage 2K and now also talking to China on getting J-10 from their inventory.
A rumour say J-10A, another talk of J-10B or early version of J-10C. What seems so far shown is the interest with J-10 version with AL-31engine. So far they don't want WS-10 engine as it is introducing another type of engine. My suspicion is that this type of J-10 AL-31 engineed will eventually replacing Flankers. This meet criteria of diversification of West and Non West base supply chain, while at same time reducing still problematic Russian supply chain.
This interim fighters strategy is that still politically controversional internally in Indonesian political circles. So whether J-10 or Mirage 2K are basically still tosses up. Both have their own political support. Thus seems this interim fighters plan getting traction back. For new build Fighters, still Rafale, and I hope it will be only Rafale on the costs of both F-15EX and KF-21 procurement cancellation.
Who knows in the end it is going to be Rafale plus Refurbished/Ozgur F-16 and J-10B/C or ex Gulf Mirage 2K. Hopefully Boeing still got pies of being switch from F-15EX to 737-800 base AEW&C with Havelsan involvement (as Turkiye Peace Eagle program). Well at least that's part of rumours negotiations that happening.
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I am very confident. Otherwise you would have likely seen few of these in Pakistani colors. There are no official statements on this but there were subtle hints of Pakistani interest in the Chinese version of the Russian aircraft (possibly J-16) but no serious talks took place because the Russians were unwilling. There are also hints that preliminary talks with Russia on Su-35 had also taken place but that didn't go anywhere either because the Russians were not agreeing to avionics package and were not willing to accommodate Chinese equipment on it.
For all I know only the J-10CE is available for export. China has expressed no interest or intent on selling or leasing any variant of J-10 that's in service with the PLAAF. I am also not sure if they can reexport AL-31. Besides, WS-10B appears quite stable. But nothing wrong in asking them.
As swerve highlight, too many different types of fighters can become maintenance and logistical nightmare. It might also negatively impact interoperability between various systems and therefore operations. Again, my opinion is, Indonesia should stick to Rafale F4. About 40-50+ aircraft are good enough to secure Indonesia and when complemented by KF-21 can replace its F-16, Su-27, and Su-30 in the future.
More importantly, they have T-50 Golden Eagle.
That's an interesting point. China made commitment when it was still dependent on Russia for key aviation equipment and weapon systems. Clearly that is not the case now. I expect Putin to bend the knee but don't expect Xi to violate his trust. Only time can tell.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Well as @koxinga already put, for Indonesia the matter of Geopolitics balance is more important then logistics and system interoperatibility. Those things is important, but below priority level then Political interest.
In the end I still believe some middle ground will be taken. However this still means at least 3 types of Fighters (if TNI-AU got lucky enough) plus 1 type of FLIT/LIFT and 1 type of COIN.
T-50 (Indonesian version seems belong as TA-50) are LIFT replacement for Hawk Mk53. I believe the Hawk that Koxinga means is Hawk 200/100 which slotted going to be replace by Rafale Redirect Notice.
KF-21 from begining is plan to replace F-16. However if they go ahead with another batch of Rafale (whether 6,12 or 18), then less likely KF-21 being procured. KF/IF-21 still can be in calculation depends also with F-15EX deals being cancelled or not. It is simply no budget avalability to have all three (Rafale, KF-21 and F-15EX) in my opinion. So with this latest MoI on Rafale, there is possibility for Rafale to replace all F-5,Hawk 200 and F-16 in the end.
Well this is base on rumours that J-10 being negotiate are the ones that have similar engine with current Flankers. There's enough internal political pressure to make sure Western and Non Western Fighters need to be acquire. There're conflicting reports for J-10 deals, thus nobody (at least in public and media) really sure how the deal going to pursue. Have to wait next week IndoDefence to see more clarities.
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Well seems more and more likely KF-21 will have to give if more Rafale being taken. F-15EX seems have better chances now. 60 Rafale + 24 F-15E plus whatever Interim Fighters going to be Choose. Boeing come big, usually they already smell deals.
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ChestnutTree
Active Member
I think from an objective and analysis standpoint it is worth point out that 'geopolitical risks' and 'political interest' is just Indonesian political jargon for corruption lobbying.
Talking with enough Air Force officers, they know this is a terrible idea. Their operatiknal budget is stretched thin by the amount of airframe varieties (case in point the Flankers). But as most things in Indonesia corruption, collusion, and nepotism gets primacy over any logistical or sensible considerations.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Lobbying even in US has potential for some corrupt practices. Indonesia being Indonesia is always have that 'C' practices. However the need for balancing political interest outside Corrupt practices is also have legitimate issue. Indonesia already have bad experience on relying only on one side supply chain. Late 60's to early 70's and Late 90's to early 2000 shown that.
Yes, that's why I also don't like F-15EX procurement aside taking too much procurement budget also questionable can be service properly. Unless TNI got substantial increase on operation budget. Rafale is already costly enough, and considering 'political interest' of the factions, supposedly better only Rafale and LCA like FA-50. Even J-10 can be considered if the talk on their relatively low operational cost is true.
But have to work out the best possible outcome to play out all political interest whether Internal or Geopolitics,as that reality.
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I often redicule Frenchie salesman. However when East Timor referendum crisis blow out, all western powers embargoes TNI. Off all Nato powers that soon resume are include the like of Frenchie, Italy and Turkey. While UK, West German, Dutch few years after that, and US the last. Just shown why Prabowo's procurement policies to NATO's have shown this kind of preferences.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
So the Deputy Defense Minister seems want to do some clarification on his boss staff misshap in the J-10 quotes. Basically his points are;
- J-10 still at assesment stage, this seems hinted what his boss means the AF teams only wants to see how J-10 perform and not train in that yet,
- Rafale next batch is part of assesment for all the offer of J-10 and F-15EX,
- F-15EX capabilities are known but the prices of 24 for 8 bio remain problematic.
He reiterate budget availability, which is good. As this means they acknowledge money trails is main factor on final decision. So this raise question, what if the costs of 42 J-10 and 18 Rafale are lower then 24 F-15EX? Will that going to be a factor, or Trump can be more decisive factor?
Lets see how this progress at next week IndoDefence.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
From X id Alman Helvas aka Frenchie Salesman,
From X id lhsingapura
This Guys seems have quite followers within Indonesian Defense communities, so I put them as part of opinion against any procurement from China. Frenchie Salesman basically against any procurement outside French or Euro NATO, and even put negative ranting against Turkiye procurement as pointed out basically unproven sub par non NATO standard. While lhsingapura more US centric and want TNI-AU to focus on improving their US base assets.
Before that, let me reiterate my personal opinion. As TNI-AU already invest much with Frenchie stuff, I want 100 Rafale. No more Flankers, no more F-16, no F-15, no J-10, no KF-21, no KAAN and if Interim fighters needed, let be ex Gulf Mirage 2K. Do I agree with Frenchies salesman? No far from it. However if TNI already invest much on Dasault system, with limited budget available then better goes all the way with Dasault.
However I sense that will not happen. So let's talk about J-10. Yes it will have Chinese system, Chinese missiles and can be problematic if have face situation in LCS against China. However will that make procurement of J-10 or Chinese weapons heavily corrupted as lhsingapura claim? Off course not, that's missleading accusation. This is Indonesia and every government procurement can be corrupted. Heck even previous procurement from Boeing (Apache E) being consider have some anomalies by state auditor (BPK). So whether procure from China, Russia, French, Turkiye or US, doesn't matter. Indonesia political systems provide equal opportunity of corruption chances.
So back to problem with systems, can procuring Chinese system be working out with other Western assets ? Let's see previous PAF engagement with IAF. PAF Swedish AEW&C and their Western base GCI seems can coordinate fine with Chinese base system in J-10 and JF-17. PAF abilities on systems coordination even can overcome IAF on systems. In the end like any modern engagement, overall systems awareness that matter.
So the key is making the whole systems to be interconnected and provide overall awareness. This is already shown since the 80's-90's and shown during first Gulf War. However what PAF shown is they can integrate different bases system and make it as their own awareness environment.
Could TNI do that ? That's the question. There're efforts to do that, like building common systems interface with Greece Systalis as main vendor. Is that working ? I don't know, but from what I gather it is working but not yet fully integrated yet.
So what if China give J-10 with open architecture system for Indonesia as offer? Can it still be workout? Whay if J-10 they offer have open source code that can be integrated with other Western base systems including western base missiles. Will that be still worth it ? Seems that what Deputy Defense Minsister implied still being asses on what China offering.
My points is, yes the system awareness is the most important thing on overall modern military engagement. PAF recent experiences already shown how they manage to do that from various systems base. Will TNI-AU able to do that ? Will overall TNI systems from 3 branches can communicate ? That's the big questions, and more important then just simply talk which systems coming from. How to integrare is more important question.
The issue with buying Chinese defense systems is that their Eleven Dash Line includes some of our Exclusive Economic Zone and they insist that those are their territorial waters since time immemorial. That is of course nonsense.
The worry is that if we end up needing to defend our EEZ from Chinese incursions, China will stop supplying spare parts and services for Chinese-sourced defense systems. And Chinese incursions of our waters, EEZ and territorial, happen quite often. There has not been a year where there was no incident and I don't believe the future will be any different.
China could avoid these by simply moving back their Eleven Dash Line, but their rhetoric means they will not do it.
The worry is that if we end up needing to defend our EEZ from Chinese incursions, China will stop supplying spare parts and services for Chinese-sourced defense systems. And Chinese incursions of our waters, EEZ and territorial, happen quite often. There has not been a year where there was no incident and I don't believe the future will be any different.
China could avoid these by simply moving back their Eleven Dash Line, but their rhetoric means they will not do it.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Well potential hot problem in LCS, Taiwan is always the main reasons why ASEAN build up its military. This is has been known as main reasons, but Geopolitically Indonesia do not want to say it that the cause is China. Like or not Indonesia will want stay in fences as much as possible, however knows well they have to prepare for the worse.
TNI: China Bukan Ancaman Bagi Indonesia
Kepala Pusat Penerangan Mabes TNI, Mayjen TNI Kristomei Sianturi membantah China merupakan ancaman bagi Indonesia.
www.idntimes.com
China not threat to Indonesia, that's official TNI position being said after Trump Defenses Secretary Hegseth, stated in Singapore Shangri-la conference, accused China is the main threat toward security balance in the region.
This why Geopolitically they (Indonesia Administrations) through out period (except Soekarno and Soeharto) want to balance everything. Trade, Investment, and Defense should provide base of 'equal opportunities' for all sides become Indonesia partners. Which's why they're entertaining the idea for some defense procurement from China.
My posts was more on basing the reality condition of that standing, can TNI especially TNI-AU provide efficient operational functions with assets source from different standards of systems? As that's also part of the arguments against procuring different weapon systems including Chinese ones.
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Kementerian Pertahanan buka peluang beli pesawat jet J-10 C dari China
Wakil Menteri Pertahanan Donny Ermawan Taufanto mengatakan tidak menutup kemungkinan Indonesia akan membeli pesawat tempur dari China yakni J-10C."Kalau ...
www.antaranews.com
Ini here, Deputy Defense Minister stated that it is J-10C that they are being offered and want to assess. Perhaps this is to close argument of speculation of second hand J-10A/B, that are circulating on online forums and social media before.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Isu Pembelian Pesawat Tempur J-10C Buatan China Mencuat, Ini Kata Komisi I DPR
Anggota Komisi I DPR Bidang Pertahanan, Hubungan Luar Negeri, Kominfo, Intelijen, TB Hasanuddin menyebutkan, belum ada rencana pembelian jet tempur J-10 C.
www.inews.id
PDIP factions say no plan for J-10C seriously being talk yet with Parliament. I put it here, as this faction that usually demand non western defense items procurement. The rumours of Chinese and Russian brokerage lobby usually also connect with this political factions too.
Perhaps they're want to cool down speculation close to IndoDefence? Or perhaps the talks not mature yet. Just interesting development as this statement come out from them at this stage.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Keris FB just put Rosoboron press release on what they are going to bring in IndoDefense. Well seems aside US (Boeing and LM), Frenchie, Italy, Turkiye and China, Russia will also going to bring quite complete products offer. Rosoboron since last year already begin marketing Russian defense items quite aggressive in the region. Shown the effort to confince the regional market they are back.
Despite this, there are still significant doubt from what I heard on reliability of their supply chains for long term maintenance support. Russia seems want to shown that the war and Western embargoes now don't put much pressure anymore to their supply chains. That's something that still big thing for them to provide proof and regain market confidence.
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Reliance on project 636.6 for SSK offer quite disappointing in my opinions. Shown they don't have new products of SSK to offer against market competitors like Scorpene Evo, 214 and derivatives, Taigei, S-26 and KSS3. Lada seems really problematic products that haven't been sort out by them and force them to continue relied on Cold War design. Most others products they are offering seems already shown latest iteration, except SSK as what I heard even their Mi-35V already shown latest upgrade.
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And that is the problem facing the Russian arms industry long term.
Much of their R&D is dependent on foreign partners stumping up the cash or some big Russian MoD contract, which is getting rarer these days due to the war. Case in point, the Checkmate SU-75.
Failure to secure funding means their internal capabilities also dying off slowly. The Chinese will slowly replacing them as the non West alternative in the coming decades along with SK, Turkey options.
Much of their R&D is dependent on foreign partners stumping up the cash or some big Russian MoD contract, which is getting rarer these days due to the war. Case in point, the Checkmate SU-75.
Failure to secure funding means their internal capabilities also dying off slowly. The Chinese will slowly replacing them as the non West alternative in the coming decades along with SK, Turkey options.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
2nd page of the press conference shown Rosoboronexport offering strategy of joint manufacturing and development. Something that Rosoboron dependabilities of that strategy with India before raise question. However from what I read on Indian media and forums, lately Russia has giving more acess to India on source code and supply chains independent.
If they begin to sell this to other market, then perhaps it is their way to reduce potential buyers doubt with Russia supply chains. Build your own with our design, and make more of the supply chains yours. Seems thats what the massage Rosoboron now try to sell.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Photo from today opening of IndoDefence begin to circulate online. Question on F-15EX will seems going to be whether the budget better be with 24 F-15EX or more Rafale plus some interim Fighters.
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Airbus in IndoDefence also shown TNI-AU first A400M. Photo from Kompas.com that take picture from their slideshow.
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