The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

A bit of Zelensky/Ukrainian democracy on display there.
Zelensky remains popular, but it's true that Ukraine is still a flawed democracy. That said, foreign pressure of this kind isn't unusual - when the U.S. imposed tariffs, the EU responded by targeting key Republican districts with countermeasures. Still, the overall direction isn’t encouraging. That said, we're far from Russian-style authoritarianism in Ukraine.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Sorry, only the "secondary" objective.

A bit strange the "primary" one: 'preventing Ukraine’s full Western integration and viability as an independent state' when willing to give back the "land corridor" in 2022 and happy with Ukraine joining the EU. (It could be that Putin thinks that Ukraine will join the EU at the same time as Turkey will.)
On the other hand, Trump seems to be doing the 'undermining the West' part all by himself.
The confirmation bias part is interesting too. As the head of RUSI provides a conclusion, it has to be true. What will be the point to check how to reach that conclusion? Or its merit? It is just faith.

To me, it looks like some old news put together and conclusions for an eight year old. The part about drones just fantasy, but we see a lot of that anyway.
 

Fredled

Active Member
During the last important development on the front line, Russians took (or at least entered) Malininvka and Nova Poltavka located north west and north east of the half-clover shaped crossroad between Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka. Russians are pushing hard in the area for quiet a while to take full control of the road.
South west of Pokrovsk, Russians took Kotlianivka. The village itself has no particular importance, but it marks a big advance in the western direction, toward Novopavlivka. A big advance compared to the previous days.
In the direction of Pokrovsk itself, a small group of Russians have managed to enter the south of the town. It's not the first time that they came very close, but it's the first time that they went technically inside the town. However, it seems that they have been neutralised by now. Elsewhere south of Pokrovsk, Russians regain lost positions here and there but nothing that fundamentally change the order of battle.
Source: Heinrich Thorsten's situation report.

We also learned that Ukraine has 6 Patriot systems, 2 being repaired and 2 pending delivery for mid 2025. One from Israel, another from Greece or Germany. It's the first time that Israel sends an anti missile system to Ukraine and, If I'm not mistaken, their first significant military shipment.

Russians are increasing the use of motorbikes. Some source are talking about over one hundred motor bikes at a time. While specific numbers have not been verified, it looks like it's the primary vehicle used in small scale assaults. On the one hand, it's more difficult to hit them with drones. On the other hand, they get whipped out by machine guns on arrival. Assailing enemy trenches on motor bike is as suicidal as it would be on horse back. Motor bikes are faster, but you hear them from very far. No surprise effect as with a real cavalry.
Motor bikes can be effective for quickly sizing unprotected, deserted or poorly protected locations. There are certainly many places like that along the front line.

Interesting story of a sea drone shooting down a Russian jet, It would be interesting to have more details of this event ,the altitude of the planes ,were they taking off near an airport ,was this a regular patrol that was anticipated,how did the drones acquire the jets position to shoot the sidewinders,was radar involved for the detection,Im not sure if you can just stick a heat seeking missile on a drone send it out into the Black sea like you have gone fishing and hope for something to come along, Certainly there would be some groups around the world who would look to replicate this ,perhaps navl carriers operating in areas of contest may want to take note
Yes, it's interesting, not only because they hit the planes very far from the Ukrainian navy base. But also because of the missile they used. The AIM-9 Sidewinder. According to Wikipedia, it's the most widely used air to air missile in the West. It's unclear how modern or obsolete the versions given to the Ukrainians are. The first one is as old as 1956... It's interesting that they choose to use a air to air missile instead of a surface to air one. Maybe it was just a question of availability and size, and it doesn't make much difference whether it's launched from a boat or from under the wing of a plane.

I think that these sea drones drift semi randomly until a target is detected within range and then the system wakes up. IMO, in this case the targets were detected by a French AWACS patrolling the Black Sea or even by an AWACS recently delivered to Ukraine by Sweden (or Norway?). A radar on the sea drone is also possible but it would make it easily detectable by anti-drone teams. Probably it activates a small radar to lit up the target after it received a wake up call.
temp.jpg
Here is the USV (Unmanned Sea Vehicle). We can see that it has powerful engines.
 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
I would think the Russians would find it problematic if such a direct targeting data arrangement came from a N.A.T.O aircraft ,suppose what would happen if Russian aircraft normally investigating N.A.T.O patrol aircraft were shot down in this way , planes Im led to believe don't shot their missiles until a target lock is achieved it seems a sophisticated setup , certainly something the Houthis would love to develop and various navies operating carriers may have to consider
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
No expert neither, but given that the video feed was still working after the drone entered the dugout, I suspected it was fiberoptic.
You are right. Good catch. Paying more attention -> more of an expert, haha.

PS Use “either” when you word it like that, as double negative is no bueno (just saying, not picking/snobbing or what have you).

That said, foreign pressure of this kind isn't unusual - when the U.S. imposed tariffs, the EU responded by targeting key Republican districts with countermeasures.
This is completely different and is called lobbying. What Zelensky is doing there is threatening the democratically elected parliamentarians to follow the line “or else”. Clearly different.

Still, the overall direction isn’t encouraging. That said, we're far from Russian-style authoritarianism in Ukraine.
True. That above is not “baby steps” though, but par for the course.


In the news:

And God said “Let there be truce,” and there was truce. (Trump 5:5)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal for a three-day ceasefire is a significant step towards a peace settlement, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed on May 5.

"As you know, President Putin just announced a three-day ceasefire, which doesn't sound like much, but it's a lot, if you know where we started from," Trump told reporters in an Oval Office briefing.



Ukrainians attacked Kursk again in the Tetkino area. So far (when I looked about 12 hours ago) I saw 3 engineering vehicles lost (the rarest animal in the hands of Ukraine?) in addition to 2 or 3 other armoured vehicles (1 M113 for sure, but I don’t recall what else was there), some ATVs. Logic? Who knows (well, I have “suspicions”). Ukrainians went through with the plan even though Russians anticipated the attack and took preventative action, according to the reports. For example (good guy to follow, in Polish, if anyone is interested):

IMG_9733.jpeg

Kursk losses updated today, but do not include today’s attack:

IMG_9732.jpeg


Other tidbits (dataset is based on the UA General Staff reports):

IMG_9729.jpeg

So the “motorcycle cavalry meat attacks” work?

The rest of the post:

IMG_9730.jpeg


Edit:

I would think the Russians would find it problematic if such a direct targeting data arrangement came from a N.A.T.O aircraft
Counterpoint: if similar targeting data is tolerated for ground “points of interest”, why wouldn’t it be tolerated for the air assets? I don’t disagree with your train of thought though.
 
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PS Use “either” when you word it like that, as double negative is no bueno (just saying, not picking/snobbing or what have you).
Appreciate the correction — always happy to learn and improve.


This is completely different and is called lobbying. What Zelensky is doing there is threatening the democratically elected parliamentarians to follow the line “or else”. Clearly different.
Yeah, it does leave a bitter taste, no doubt. But I think it would be completely within the U.S.’s rights if they chose to do this of their own volition.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
You are right. Good catch. Paying more attention -> more of an expert, haha.

PS Use “either” when you word it like that, as double negative is no bueno (just saying, not picking/snobbing or what have you).


This is completely different and is called lobbying. What Zelensky is doing there is threatening the democratically elected parliamentarians to follow the line “or else”. Clearly different.


True. That above is not “baby steps” though, but par for the course.


In the news:

And God said “Let there be truce,” and there was truce. (Trump 5:5)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal for a three-day ceasefire is a significant step towards a peace settlement, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed on May 5.

"As you know, President Putin just announced a three-day ceasefire, which doesn't sound like much, but it's a lot, if you know where we started from," Trump told reporters in an Oval Office briefing.



Ukrainians attacked Kursk again in the Tetkino area. So far (when I looked about 12 hours ago) I saw 3 engineering vehicles lost (the rarest animal in the hands of Ukraine?) in addition to 2 or 3 other armoured vehicles (1 M113 for sure, but I don’t recall what else was there), some ATVs. Logic? Who knows (well, I have “suspicions”). Ukrainians went through with the plan even though Russians anticipated the attack and took preventative action, according to the reports. For example (good guy to follow, in Polish, if anyone is interested):

View attachment 52813

Kursk losses updated today, but do not include today’s attack:

View attachment 52812


Other tidbits (dataset is based on the UA General Staff reports):

View attachment 52810

So the “motorcycle cavalry meat attacks” work?

The rest of the post:

View attachment 52811


Edit:


Counterpoint: if similar targeting data is tolerated for ground “points of interest”, why wouldn’t it be tolerated for the air assets? I don’t disagree with your train of thought though.
That Vitaly guy has some strange opinions. It's well documented that Russia has had to consistently increase sign-on bonuses to get people to enlist. So... how exactly is "IvanZ" free? And let's not forget the bonus is for the contract, meaning if he dies and a replacement has to be sourced, you have to pay a bonus, while if he continues to serve you don't. Also not sure why he thinks motorbikes cost the same as a rifle. The cheapest used motorcycles I found for sale in Russia were around ~2k USD, where as a saiga civilian AK variant retailed for ~$700. I suspect Russian MoD gets them cheaper then retail. His commentary shows intelligence and understanding, I'm left to assume that his bias leads him to make off-the-cuff remarks such as these.
 

Fredled

Active Member
About the recent Glushkovo incursion: Even Ukrainian propagandist on YouTube Denys Davydov said that it was a failure. Russians saw them coming. To be fair, it was a small scale attack. Either to test Russian readiness in the area or to create a diversion from the Sumy direction. IMO, it's nothing extraordinary except that they crossed the Russian border.

I don't understand why Ukrainians haven't found a way to avoid Russian drones. In fact, they manage sucessfuly to avoid artillery fire, to cross the mine fields and eventually defence lines. But then, further inside Russian lines, they are moving closer to Russian drone launch sites (or Russians move their drone teams closer to the area), and get destroyed. The same happened in Berdin and in other instances.
Syrsky claimed that they hit a drone operator bunker in the area. Maybe that's why they thought they were safe. Russians had more than one drone team as we can see.

That Vitaly guy has some strange opinions. It's well documented that Russia has had to consistently increase sign-on bonuses to get people to enlist. So... how exactly is "IvanZ" free? And let's not forget the bonus is for the contract, meaning if he dies and a replacement has to be sourced, you have to pay a bonus, while if he continues to serve you don't. Also not sure why he thinks motorbikes cost the same as a rifle. The cheapest used motorcycles I found for sale in Russia were around ~2k USD, where as a saiga civilian AK variant retailed for ~$700. I suspect Russian MoD gets them cheaper then retail. His commentary shows intelligence and understanding, I'm left to assume that his bias leads him to make off-the-cuff remarks such as these.
And the cost of a Russian recruit is not "the same" as the cost of an Ukrainian one. Russians soldiers in Ukraine are paid $2000 to $2500 equivalent or 4 to 5x the salary the same person would expect in a civilian job. Ukraine pay the equivalent of $1200 or twice a normal salary for the same person. Only foreign mercenaries are paid €2000 to €2500 a month, the same as western Europe salaries. But they are professional soldiers, often experienced veterans and they are not in very big numbers. Ukrainians don't accept foreign wannabe mercenaries without any military background.

Russia spend over $1.2B per month only in extra salaries and bonuses for their soldiers in Ukraine (not including regular salaries from the MoD).
The Russian casualty rate is still high, but they manage to recruit enough men to replace and even rotate them.

I suspect motorbikes are imported from China, maybe India.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Sumy area.

Russian forces have retaken most of the Belgorod border areas. A few small areas remain contested. In Kursk region Ukraine launched a failed cross-border attack, but the attack is still in progress, so while the earlier parts have failed, future gains are possible. In Sumy region Russian forces have entered and control about half of the village of Belovody but are facing Ukrainian counter-attacks. East of Belovody, west of Loknya, Russian forces have taken a wide chunk of fields.


It appears Ukraine made another attempt to break into Kursk region, this time near Tetkino and Noviy Put'. Ukraine threw a mechanized force to make an opening, and carried out a strike against the nearest bridge across the Seym. As a result Ukraine lost a Wisent, IMR-2, and UR-77 engineering vehicles. The evacuation team that was trying to rescue the crew of the Wisent was also hit. Russian sources also associate the last link with strikes conducted against Ukrainian forces that were meant to take part in this but were hit on approach. There we have a T-72A or M, and a couple of armored vehicles of an unknown type.


After the first attempt was repulsed Ukraine made another run at the border near Tetkino and Noviy Put', including smaller teams attempting to enter on foot and in unarmored vehicles. Russian sources report some Ukrainian infantry made it into Tetkino. We have an IMR-2, and a BMP-1 getting hit.


Another Ukrainian counter-attack took place near Belovody. A Ukrainian column was hit, with a Kirpi MRAP, BTR-80, and other vehicles I can't ID. The source claims 6 vehicles total, including Humvee, Stryker, and M113, in addition to those two. I find it interesting that gone are the days when Ukraine fielded mech coys on relatively standard equipment. In this case a company-minus element is riding 5 different vehicles.


A Ukrainian tank hit in the border area near Kursk.


Russian strikes near Tetkino.


Russian strikes in Belovody.


Russian UCAV strike on allegedly a 2S1 near Rybitsa, Sumy region, and another strike, context unclear.


Russian Lancet strike hits a Bradley in Sumy region and two FPV drones apparently fail to hit another Bradley, despite it being stationatry.


Ukrainian RAK-12 MLRS getting hit in the border area.


Ukrainian Leo-2 knocked out reportedly near Belovody, Sumy region.


Another destroyed Stryker in Kursk region. I don't think we've seen this one before.


A knocked out M113 MEDVAC variant in Kursk.


Kharkov area.

Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian guntruck near Volchansk.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian light truck inside Volchansk.


Russian drone strike on either a 2S1 or a convincing and well concealed decoy near Liptsi. The vehicle burns.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kupyansk area.

Russian forces appear to have taken all of Kamyanka. East of the Oskol Russian forces advanced along the high ground south of Stepovaya Novoselka, forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal from the village.


Russian forces in Kamyanka.


Russian Lancet strike on allegedly a Krab howitzer in the Kupyansk area. Note while they hit something, I can't make out what. It's an SP artillery of some sort.


Russian strike on Velikiy Burluk, Kupyansk area. The presence of civilian firefighters suggests the area hasn't been evacuated.


Russian bomb strikes inside Kupyansk.


A destroyed Bogdana howitzer in the Kupyansk area.


Oskol front.


Russian forces appear to control all of Pervotravnevoe, while Ukrainian forces have retaken Kopanki.


Russian forces have re-entered Torskoe from the north, on the left shore of the Zherebets. Near Makeevka, Russian forces have taken another patch of fields. Novoe is fully under Russian control, and Russian forces have expanded their area of control along the road south of it. North of Novomihailovka Russian forces have taken a chunk of fields.


Seversk salient.


Russian forces are continuing to push west of Belogorovka and are now inside Grivorievka. Consolidating there will be hard, there's little tree cover, and the village is in ruins. Russian forces also gained ground in the hills south-east of the village. It's interesting that this is the most sustained gains Russia has seen in this area for a long time.


Chasov Yar.


Russian forces have bitten off another piece of forest north of Grigorievka, and another west of it. South of the town, Russian forces have gained more ground inside Stupochki.


Russian FPV drone hits a Ukrainian uparmored tractor, reportedly being used for logistics.


Footage from inside Konstantinovka, where a Russian drone waits for a Ukrainian armored vehicle to open the hatch before flying in.


Russian FAB strikes landed in Druzhkovka. As the front line moves towards Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka will become the logistics hub for the area. It's likely supplies are already being stored there at least on their way to the front.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Toretsk area.

Russian forces have made substantial though somewhat tenuous gains north-east of Toretsk. Russian forces have cleared most of Dachnoe, grabbed a section of the treeline on both sides of the railroad, and the pushed north-west along a treeline into the fields. This threatens Dyleevka rail station (not to be confused with the village of Dyleevka north from there) from the west. Russian forces also control the fairly broad tree lines along both sides of the railroad up to about halfway from Druzhba to Dachnoe. Meawhile north-west of Krymskoe, Russian forces have taken over the recreational area around the pond of Dyleevka, which raises a question. Are there still Ukrainian forces in between the Russian forces by the pond, and Russian forces in Dachnoe? If yes, the Russian positions near Dachnoe are a very long and thin salient, threatened from all sides. Or is it really more no-man's land with Ukrainian positions effectively pulled out of there? This is unclear. Ukrainian forces meanwhile counter-attacked into the northern outskirts of Toretsk again.


Russian strikes on a Ukrainian position in a mining complex near Toretsk. I think it's the one north of the town called Novodzerzhinskaya.


Avdeevka area.


Russian forces are taking some fields east of Zelenoe Pole and some north of Sukhaya Balka.


Pokrovsk area.


Russian forces have broken open Ukraine's eastern flank in the Pokrovsk area. They've pushed through to Novo-olenovka and secured it, approached Aleksandropol' and took a number of fields west of Tarasovka, east of the highway. They've also entered Novaya Poltavka, and Malinovka, as well as expanding their area of control north-east of Yelizavetovka. They now not only hold the intersection but a chunk of the highway too. Yelizavetovka itself is apparently half under Russian control and half no-man's land.

On the western flank Russian forces have retaken Kotlino, pushed west out of Solenoe towards Novosergeevka and have take most of Novoaleksandrovka. Uspenovka is full under Russian control, and Russian forces have also pushed west quite a bit out of Nadeevka. Ukrainian forces have re-entered Lysovka.


Russian infantry has entered Pokrovsk for the first time, though not taken any ground there.


A series of Russian strikes took place near Pokrovsk, they hit 2 retranslator antennas, 2 vehicles of unknown make, one MRAP with a mine plow, 2 unarmored vehicles, something tracked (allegedly a BMP), some infantry in the open, an AMX-10RC, and some Ukrainian positions.


An interesting video of Russian strikes on Ukrainian infantry in entrenchements. The video really shows how low the troop density is in these engagements.


Something strange happened. Russia's Rubicon Center hit a HIMARS a mere 10kms from the front line, near Rusin Yar. This is a village north of Novaya Poltavka.


Russian ISDM Zemledelie operations near Pokrovsk.


Dnepropetrovsk axis.


Russian forces have broken into the southern part of Bogatyr'. Russian forces have also taken all of Kotlyarovka, and some of the fields around it, approaching Troitskoe.


Russian troopers using a step-ladder to get over an obstacle near Kotlyarovka.


Russian strikes on Bogatyr'.


Russian strikes on a bridge across the Volchya, west of Bogatyr, near Novoukrainka and Zeleniy Kut.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Velikaya Novoselka area.

Russian forces have pushed out towards Novopol', and now have firm control of Novoselka. They've also takena number of fields between Vol'noe Pole and Novoselka, and Shevchenko. Vol'noe Pole is itself now half under Russian control.


Zaporozhye.

A Ukrainian M113 in a ditch near Orekhov gets hit by a Russian drone.


The first towed Bogdana howitzer has been hit, in Zaporozhye.


Russian drone strike in Zaporozhye. The video claims it's a 2S3, but that's unlikely. We get a moment of ERA tiles on the hulle. The post claims it's a M-55S, but this is not obvious.


Dnepr front.

A Russian strike on allegedly two HIMARS hiding in a hangar. The Russian strike is an Iskander airburst. Note the footage quality is bad, and BDA is not available.


Russian FAB-1500 strike on Kherson.


Russian forces have begun dropping leaflets on the right shore of the Dnepr instructing local civilians how to behave if they encounter Russian troops. This is almost certainly an attempt to mislead Ukraine.


Crimea/Black Sea.

Footage of a Russian Su-30SM being brought down by a Ukrainian unmanned boat. Note, the crew apparently survived and were brought in by a civilian ship. FB confirms the first lost jet and denies a second. Ukrainian sources report two jets brought down. Many people have speculated about why this might be, I think the answer is simple. Russia doesn't have a good way to target these boats with the weapons available, so they're using dive-bomb attacks with cluster munitions to hit them on the water. It works but exposes the jet to danger. Prior to this they also activel used helos to do it, but that's become more dangerous. Note in addition to Su-30SMs, they also use Su-24Ms for this purpose.


Russian BK-16 boat firing on a Ukrainian USV. The BK-16 is another copy of the CB90, like the Raptor boats.


Russian FPV drone hits a Ukrainian unmanned boat off of coast near Novorossiysk.


Russian air defenses firing, during a recent wave of strikes on Crimea.


A good series of Ukrainian videos of drones striking Russian targets in Crimea. Targets include several radars, and two S-300 TELs.


A wrecked Ukrainian An-196 UAV somewhere in Crimea. It's unclear how it was brought down.


A Russian UAV monitors Ukrainian unmanned drones.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russian Shaheds landing in Kiev. These are at least 3 different waves of strikes.


Battle damage from Russian strikes landing in the industrial part of Sumy.


Russian strikes landing in Kharkov. Targets include a rail station.


Russian drones hit storage facilities in Dergachi village, Kharkov region.


Near Kegachevka, Kharkov region, Russia hit a Ukrainian artillery munitions storage facility.


Russian strikes landing in Kramatorsk. They allegedly hit Ukrainian staging areas, and repair facilities. Note Kramatorsk has been hit repeatedly recently, likely as part of continuing Russian efforts in the area.


Russian Shaheds hit Slavyansk, allegedly targetting munition storage near the rail station. Secondary explosions are reported.


Battle damage inside Slavyansk, of what might be a Ukrainian staging area, or not.


Russian strikes hit Cherkasy. One of the targets hit includes a gas distribution station.


Another Russian series of strikes hit the Cherkasy airport. They apparently targeted storage facilities near Ukrainian jet positions.


Russian Shaheds landing in Zaporozhye. These are at least two different waves of strikes.


Russian strikes on Dnepropetrovsk.


Russian Iskander and Shahed strikes landing in Odessa. These are at least two different waves of strikes. Targets include the Spaitech UAV manufacturer.


Battle damage to Novaya Pochta storage facilities in Odessa after Russian strikes.


Ukraine sent a wave of drones at Moscow but they appear to have been shot down.


Ukrainian drones hit several apartment buildings in Novorossiysk. 5 wounded civilians are reported.


Ukraine hit the Strela plant in Bryansk region.


Ukraine shelled Gorlovka, hitting a variety of targets, including a bus, a residential building, and a school. 16 or 17 civilians are reported wounded.


Interesting bits.

An interesting shot of a Ukrainian drone hitting a Russian vehicle of some sort. Allegedly this is a ground-based version of the ship-based Zaslon radar. We've seen Russia adapt several ship-based systems for ground use. Note the vehicle certainly isn't destroyed, though the radar is certainly damaged.


Another look at Ukraine's 3rd Assault Bde's FrankenSAM, with R-73s on a Humvee. Reportedly it's called an H73 Dragon.


A new 2S22 variant in service with Ukraine's 44th Arty Bde.


A Italian Puma APC in service with Ukraine's 81st Airborne Bde.


A good look at the Uro VAMTAC in Ukrainian service. I think we've only seen this vehicle once before, and it was knocked out.


There are reports Ukraine has started producing domestic TM-62 clones, a Soviet landmine.


We now have a battlefield sighting of a Russian 2A42 autocannon mounted on a D-44 carriage. It's being sighted by a Ukrainian drone, so presumably it was destroyed.


A Russian 2S7M with American 203mm shells, sourced from Iran.


A look at a new type of anti-drone defenses becoming more common, it's steel cables turned into a wire mess that drones get caught in. Here we have a BMP-2M with extra armor.


We have some Croatian M-84s heading to Germany for re-export to Ukraine.


Reportedly all of the UKs AS-90s are now in Ukraine.


There are reprots that the US is blocking the transfer of Abrams tanks to Ukraine from Australia.


Russia is reportedly reopening limited rail service from the Donetsk train station. The front line has been moved a considerable distance from Donetsk, and Russia will probably start major development efforts in Donetsk city either later this year or early next year.


There are reports that the Dnepropetrovsk plant provided 120 000 defective artillery shells to the Ukrainian military.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
That Vitaly guy has some strange opinions. It's well documented that Russia has had to consistently increase sign-on bonuses to get people to enlist. So... how exactly is "IvanZ" free? And let's not forget the bonus is for the contract, meaning if he dies and a replacement has to be sourced, you have to pay a bonus, while if he continues to serve you don't. Also not sure why he thinks motorbikes cost the same as a rifle. The cheapest used motorcycles I found for sale in Russia were around ~2k USD, where as a saiga civilian AK variant retailed for ~$700. I suspect Russian MoD gets them cheaper then retail. His commentary shows intelligence and understanding, I'm left to assume that his bias leads him to make off-the-cuff remarks such as these.
Haha. Indeed. He is probably the “strangest” guy I follow. He is very much Ukrainian to the core, yet, at the same time, very reasonable if you sweep the garbage away (like what you mentioned, for example). His ever occurring point, and what you are referring to here, is that not only Russia couldn’t care less about the casualties, but also has an endless replacement of “meat” to throw into the grinder -> free IvanZ on cheap motorcycles. I have no doubt he understands things at least as well as anyone else, just can’t help himself expressing UA disadvantages the way he does. All the nonsense, however, is usually followed by or intermixed with very intelligent thoughts and analysis. The data he compiles, along with the presentation, is second to none. I should say most of his posts are completely irrelevant (to me), but those that are worth keeping a note of.

Another thing, in his posts, he refers to “good IvanZ” and “ordinary IvanZ”. Took me a while to figure that out, but good means killed and ordinary means wounded. Strange way to make the distinction, in my opinion, but everyone is entitled to their own ways, I guess. So yes, he is biased, but not entirely blinded by it. One of the better ones, really (he’d be right there among the top few of the Ukrainian sources I would personally recommend following). He doesn’t have that big of an audience either because the lemmings don’t like him and his ideas and others probably find him too weird.


Interesting day today. Ukrainians hit a Russian 9K512 Uragan-1M with a rocket fired from a HIMARS or a M270:

IMG_9737.jpeg

Video in the post: https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1919845143475044689

Russians called the flop and destroyed a HIMARS with an FPV drone 10km (or 30km) away from the frontline:

IMG_9744.jpeg

Video in the post: https://x.com/RALee85/status/1919834360305365191

Or on Telegram: ИЦПБТ «РУБИКОН»

To note, the Rubicon video (the original source) actually states 30km from the frontline. I haven’t seen a geolocation, so it isn’t exactly clear.


A short article on the downing of the RU Su-30 from the Magura USV.


It notes, which greatly “irritates” me in every similar situation, that there were two confirmed jets brought down (citing Budanov’s claims alone), which makes it consistent vs a one-off event. Which, I guess is Budanov’s goal.


A good article on the Trump’s attempt to hammer a nail between Russia and China (if that is what he is trying to do) and why it will never work. I was going to post and discuss it a month ago when it was published, but never got to it. So for those interested to give it a read:



This one doesn’t belong here (not sure where does belong though) but is an excellent thread on Tochka-U missiles for those interested in the subject:



A great article from last month about the Shahed/Geran drones. I am just going over some open tabs that I was going to post and discuss, but it never happened.


This is another article on the subject in the Ukrainian outlet that mainly talks about the evolution of Shaheds during the war:



Another piece that is worth discussing, but is now offered up for reading is concerned with the war in the Black Sea. Titled “The Strategic Significance of the Maritime Theatre in the Russia–Ukraine War” is a very good study of the subject and is definitely worth the time to read.



Another tab I found still open is nothing special, it is basically a video of a turtle tank being hit, withdrawing and stalling, being hit multiple times more, including with the thermite charge, but eventually evacuated, allegedly repaired and being sent back to the front. Two links to the same thing, X and Telegram, respectively:




I am going to wrap this post up with a video, the field medical “centre” of the 3rd assault brigade. A few moments are hard to watch (no corpses or anything, just a human/psychological level kind of thing). The interesting points are that it is becoming more and more difficult to evacuate the wounded (days is normal); while bullet wounds were normal before, they are almost nonexistent now and the majority of injuries come from FPVs and glide bombs; the war is getting deadlier for everyone, at the line of contact or further out; those further out have a better chance of being evacuated. Glide bombs aside, the report is very consistent with everything else we see and hear elsewhere.



Apologies for the mixed salad type of post, I just wanted to close some tabs and the ones I presented above I thought are worth your time.

With quite a few tabs closed now, I still have 101 hanging open here, lol. About a dozen and a half of those are not related to the thread at hand.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Not the full deal.

"The deal creates a joint investment fund to access Ukraine’s mineral wealth, but on terms that are advantageous to the US. Ukraine will contribute half of all revenues from new mineral licences to capitalise the fund, without any equivalent obligation for the US to match these contributions. Yet, despite this inequity, Washington retains 50% control over decision-making. The deal even envisages that US military aid would be considered as a form of capitalisation of the fund, potentially giving the US a legal claim on future profits without having contributed any investment capital."
...
"But the deal is about Ukraine playing for time and maintaining some level of US support for its war of self-defence. With Russia’s war machine facing the ticking clock of oil price declines, time might even be on Ukraine’s side."

Somewhere else I read (oil price) in 5 years. We have some economy analyst around here, is Russian economy going to collapse, this time, in five years just because of the oil price? That simple?
Does Ukraine have soldiers for those 5 years? Not to mention everything else needed, including foreign money.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting day today. Ukrainians hit a Russian 9K512 Uragan-1M with a rocket fired from a HIMARS or a M270:

View attachment 52823

Video in the post: https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1919845143475044689
I think it was a DPRK sourced M1991 MLRS. Uragan-1M never went beyond prototype stage, and I doubt they started producing it during this war, though I guess it's possible.

Russians called the flop and destroyed a HIMARS with an FPV drone 10km (or 30km) away from the frontline:

View attachment 52824

Video in the post: https://x.com/RALee85/status/1919834360305365191

Or on Telegram: ИЦПБТ «РУБИКОН»

To note, the Rubicon video (the original source) actually states 30km from the frontline. I haven’t seen a geolocation, so it isn’t exactly clear.
Rusin Yar, it's mentioned in my last updated. Here's the location on suriyakmaps. You can estimate the distance to Russian forces in Novoolenovka.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I think it was a DPRK sourced M1991 MLRS. Uragan-1M never went beyond prototype stage, and I doubt they started producing it during this war, though I guess it's possible.
Yeah, since posting I see there is some debate on it now. Everyone who says Uragan-1M, cites Janovsky, from my understanding, ie Oryx (as my post above). Then there are those that suggest it is M1991; the third group says KN-09. I am not even remotely capable of making a call here. This is what’s in the video:



KN-09:



M1991:



Uragan-1M:



To me it looks like either KN-09 or Uragan-1M. Janovsky made a point that the pods do not look like those of KN-09 (or M1991). I agree that it looks more like Uragan-1M. However, if you look at the cabin here, for example:

IMG_9753.jpeg

It looks like KN-09.

But who can tell from a video like that? I also want to stress again that I have no clue what I am talking about here, haha.

Ukrainians are saying it was a KN-09, so, perhaps, they know best in this case?


I believe I saw “unconfirmed” reports citing RU sources that there were some Uragan-1M supplied to the frontline about a year ago (or so?). No idea what is true though, like with many things.

Rusin Yar, it's mentioned in my last updated. Here's the location on suriyakmaps. You can estimate the distance to Russian forces in Novoolenovka.

Ok, thanks. Looks like less than 10 km then (though we don’t know where the drone operators were, of course). I didn’t have the time to look through the update yet (in fact, when I started the post, the update wasn’t there yet; I came back to it several times trough out the day before actually posting).
 
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