Indonesian Aero News

swerve

Super Moderator
The logic is impeccable. No matter what the plans, if the money isn't allocated they don't happen. This makes me wonder if Poland's military build up will be quite as big as intended.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
This makes me wonder if Poland's military build up will be quite as big as intended.
One thing that I'm bit surprisingly found in media pundits, that many of them not realising what matter most in global trade, is availability of Credit Line. This happen to all trade, including weapons. This is why I say in Russian thread, the most damaging Collective West sanctions, is their Financial Market ones. Cause it's drive the cost to trade with Russia significantly. This is the main reason that force Russia to give discount on their hydrocarbon trades. Something they have to take in order to compensate the rises in costs. Other sanctions contributing to rise of costs, but financial markets one that really matter.


This is already in talk for couple of weeks on Korean media and forums. Korean Banks actually don't want to finance all Poland Credit to procures all contracts by themselves. Mostly because they don't see Poland have enough financial back for all credit line. In short either ROK government has to back it up some of the credit line, or Poland government must find other FI (Financial Institutions) to finance the rest of portion that ROK commercial Banks doesn't want to cover. Something that seems new Polish government reluctance to do it.

This is problem for new players in defense items supplier game. Most customers in the world want to got preferential credit line to finance their purchase. Thus any suppliers must be ready to prepare that. Seems the ROK defense suppliers forgot on that or perhaps they expect Poland that's going to find Euro FI to finance that.

Any FI will also see country credit rating before they are willing to finance that. The credit rating work both ways, in essence the FI going to rate the Seller and Buyers. Example, Turkiye suppliers got contract with Indonesia. The FI going to rate both sides, as they have to judge whether the supplier can finish the job and buyer can pay the installment. If they see (exanple) buyer can pay the installment but there's more risk on the supplier working capital (for finishing the job), then they will ask more premium costs or even decide not to enter the financing deal.

This is why in some deals third parties backing can be matter. Say Turkiye deal with Indonesia back by UAE institution for example. This why in some defense deals, US act as guarantor, which usually happen when the product also use many US components.

This is why CAATSA matter on Russian defense trade. Cause many FI unwilling to provide Credit Line toward Russian defense deals, due to their unwillingness to risk their access toward New York market. This why India need to find other channels to finance their defense procurement. Usually through direct deal between Indian Bank to Russian Bank, bypassing US and West financial market. It's cost them more, which make some other buyers less willing to venture that. India seems wiling to risk that costs, perhaps because they have relative large procurement that economic of scale on the deal can relatively cover the difference in costs.

So in short, if you as supplier don't have abilities to back credit line for large procurement, then perhaps have to think twice on getting a deal. Credit line play both ways.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
http://instagr.am/p/C1Yz7f0LggA/
After 45 years in service, TNI-AU decide to close the operational chapter of SA-330 Puma. The helicopter make 8th sqadron of tactical helicopter. The sq already in transition to H225M Caracal.

This helicopter alongside with Sikorski S-58T become the backbone for Heavy Transport helicopter during Indonesian military operation in East Timor.

Add some photo shoot that I took from Airmen TV video on the ceremony:

Screenshot_2023-12-29-22-54-50-360_com.google.android.youtube.jpgScreenshot_2023-12-29-22-54-31-783_com.google.android.youtube.jpgScreenshot_2023-12-29-22-52-52-700_com.google.android.youtube.jpgScreenshot_2023-12-29-22-51-13-899_com.google.android.youtube.jpg
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
http://instagr.am/p/C1Yz7f0LggA/
After 45 years in service, TNI-AU decide to close the operational chapter of SA-330 Puma. The helicopter make 8th sqadron of tactical helicopter. The sq already in transition to H225M Caracal.

This helicopter alongside with Sikorski S-58T become the backbone for Heavy Transport helicopter during Indonesian military operation in East Timor.
Thank you for sharing.
After more than 4 decades of loyal service, it is a good moment to retire them.
Here an overview of the last 5 active NSA330 Pumas.

Image taken from TNI-AU's Twitter page.
 

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Ananda

The Bunker Group

This is shown how the politics can overide any defense procurement planning and contract. Off course budgetary situation matter, but politics influence matter more. This TV program talk about controversy of Ex Qatar Mirage 2000-5 as interim fighters. Prabowo as Defense Minister before, talk this interim fighters as gap until new fighters arrive

However this program now seems become political baggage for him during campaigning for next presidency. Other candidates team used this interim fighters or interim assets as weaknesses on his defense program. Something that he use as prove of his leadership track record.

For that seems his MinDef spokesman in this program (minute 10:00 - 13:00), basically say the interim assets program including this Mirage 2000-5 being postponed. He cited defense budget priority, and decided instead moving to get second hand assets as interim program, to choose refurbishment program. In this case refurbishment of existing F-16 and Flankers toward more modern standard.

Seems this is also happening in Navy, where instead getting second hand ships as interim until newly build assets operational, they decide to refurbishment on existing fleet to more modern standard. In short MLU instead getting newer but still second hand assets.

Thus by this, it is seems confirm this term only Rafale procurement that's effective as new Fighters program. In sense, despite all studies and talk on several type, by nature of politics and budget, they are doing simplification of types.

The talk of Austrian Eurofighter, Rafale, F-15EX, Mirage 2000-5, in the end ends up toward Rafale only. Good news on this is, as chaotic Indonesia Defense procurement appears, it will in the end screen toward more or less logical path. Something that Prabowo's team seems believe more defendable politically.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

This is shown how the politics can overide any defense procurement planning and contract. Off course budgetary situation matter, but politics influence matter more. This TV program talk about controversy of Ex Qatar Mirage 2000-5 as interim fighters. Prabowo as Defense Minister before, talk this interim fighters as gap until new fighters arrive

However this program now seems become political baggage for him during campaigning for next presidency. Other candidates team used this interim fighters or interim assets as weaknesses on his defense program. Something that he use as prove of his leadership track record.

For that seems his MinDef spokesman in this program (minute 10:00 - 13:00), basically say the interim assets program including this Mirage 2000-5 being postponed. He cited defense budget priority, and decided instead moving to get second hand assets as interim program, to choose refurbishment program. In this case refurbishment of existing F-16 and Flankers toward more modern standard.

Seems this is also happening in Navy, where instead getting second hand ships as interim until newly build assets operational, they decide to refurbishment on existing fleet to more modern standard. In short MLU instead getting newer but still second hand assets.

Thus by this, it is seems confirm this term only Rafale procurement that's effective as new Fighters program. In sense, despite all studies and talk on several type, by nature of politics and budget, they are doing simplification of types.

The talk of Austrian Eurofighter, Rafale, F-15EX, Mirage 2000-5, in the end ends up toward Rafale only. Good news on this is, as chaotic Indonesia Defense procurement appears, it will in the end screen toward more or less logical path. Something that Prabowo's team seems believe more defendable politically.
This is indeed nothing more than good news, refurbishing and modernization of existing assests instead of adding second hand fighters and old frigates from types we never used before as a temporary interim solution.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
F-15ID so far also not getting confirm budget allocation, as potentially the budget allocation for F-15ID will be move for budget fulfillment toward Fincantieri Frigates and Next Batch Submarine. While F-16 refurbishment aim to get those C/D Blk 52ID toward V standard.

Will be interesting to see if Washington agree on this knowing also Indonesia will keep the Flankers running and upgrade. While Boeing expectations on Fighters, AEW and MPA could be hold and switch toward Italian and Frenchie suppliers.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
F-15ID so far also not getting confirm budget allocation, as potentially the budget allocation for F-15ID will be move for budget fulfillment toward Fincantieri Frigates and Next Batch Submarine. While F-16 refurbishment aim to get those C/D Blk 52ID toward V standard.

Will be interesting to see if Washington agree on this knowing also Indonesia will keep the Flankers running and upgrade. While Boeing expectations on Fighters, AEW and MPA could be hold and switch toward Italian and Frenchie suppliers.
Well, from which i understand Indonesia has ordered 24 S-70M helicopters from Sikorsky, but i don't know how much the value of the contract is. Btw, i haven't see anything on DSCA yet about this acquisition.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

The 3rd or last tranche Rafale procurement has been officially engaged. This means Indonesia contractually already activate all tranches. 42 Rafale make 3 sq in which 2 will replace existing 2 Hawk 200/100 sq. 1 sq will basically enable F-5 sq that already empty since 2015 to be fill by F-16. This is also means essentially no new sq being build, thus the tni au orbat still 8 sq.

Add:
Official Dasault site announcement.

 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

The 3rd or last tranche Rafale procurement has been officially engaged. This means Indonesia contractually already activate all tranches. 42 Rafale make 3 sq in which 2 will replace existing 2 Hawk 200/100 sq. 1 sq will basically enable F-5 sq that already empty since 2015 to be fill by F-16. This is also means essentially no new sq being build, thus the tni au orbat still 8 sq.

Add:
Official Dasault site announcement.

So like we discussed/predicted before, the F-16s from SkU.16 go to SkU.14. With other words, Pekanbaru will get 2 Rafale squadrons, Pontianak 1, and Iswahyudi will have two F-16 squadrons.

This is maybe the most logic, practical and effective decision made in decades for the airforce.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Yes, that's I believe results from TNI-AU revise plan. Including in that the logistics concentration approach, in which the each types support functions concentrate base on area/air base approach.

Not most ideal ways, but considering TNI-AU still facing several types in inventory for foreseable future, this is seems the best they can do for concentrating logistics footprint. Thus we can see all logistics support including MRO and retrofit job for F-16 already concentrate in Iswahyudi AB. As Makasar AB also being prepared for future retrofit job for Flankers. All training and conversions infrastructure for the type also concentrate on each AB as types home AB.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

TNI-AU X account practically confirm all the tranches already effective. Put it in here as potentially it is also shown what kind armaments that TNI-AU hinted will be. From Meteor, Mica, SCALP, Exocet MM39, and laser guided munition. It is also means 3 type of missiles in TNI-AU inventory. Which also means Rafale, F-16 and Flankers logistical foot prints will be seperate altogether from parts to armaments.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Put it in here as potentially it is also shown what kind armaments that TNI-AU hinted will be.
I think it is more standard additional information they is given in this short video. Lets see with what armament the Rafales will be delivered, hopefully not only some handful of freefall bombs, like with the first batch of Sukhois.

One thing is sure, and that is that all BAe Hawks will be replaced by the Rafales after 2026.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

MinDef X put another Video on TNI-AU. This time saying preparation to send Aircrews and Mechanics team to Airbus Military for A400M. Base on practices means first A400M could be months away from delivering. When they begin send personal to LM facilities for C130J, the first plane enter delivery 5-7 months later.

This administration really want to shown the achievement in every sector, but seems more emphasis also on defense. Rumours say that if Prabowo win with one round or even goes two round with strong lead, they will exercises option for more A400M.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

MinDef X put another Video on TNI-AU. This time saying preparation to send Aircrews and Mechanics team to Airbus Military for A400M. Base on practices means first A400M could be months away from delivering. When they begin send personal to LM facilities for C130J, the first plane enter delivery 5-7 months later.

This administration really want to shown the achievement in every sector, but seems more emphasis also on defense. Rumours say that if Prabowo win with one round or even goes two round with strong lead, they will exercises option for more A400M.
It will be very remarkable if the A400Ms will be delivered this year. As far as i know that was planned for 2026.
And it is also unlikely that they prepare their staff now and only send them in 2026 for training.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Yes initial information both A400M and first batch of Rafale will be delivering on 2026. So this announcement of Crew and Mechanics preparation, either some "image" building, or Airbus manage to arrange faster delivery by replacing already assembled A400M from existing line. Not unheard practice from one shareholders order being sacrifices for export order.

If this is the case, I suspect French order that's being sacrifices. Frenchie are the ones that actually quite hard to lobby not only for Dasault but also Airbus in Jakarta lately.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Yes initial information both A400M and first batch of Rafale will be delivering on 2026. So this announcement of Crew and Mechanics preparation, either some "image" building, or Airbus manage to arrange faster delivery by replacing already assembled A400M from existing line. Not unheard practice from one shareholders order being sacrifices for export order.

If this is the case, I suspect French order that's being sacrifices. Frenchie are the ones that actually quite hard to lobby not only for Dasault but also Airbus in Jakarta lately.
Yes that is also possible, from the 50 France ordered, 28 are not delivered yet if im not wrong.

Besides that together with Germany and Zweden, France is developing the Future Medium-size Tactical Cargo (FMTC) aircraft, to replace the retired C-160, the CN235 and C-130. And the production rate of the A400M is quite low, so maybe this mini-A400M (like the Il-76 and Il-276 combination) will enter production before the last A400M is delivered.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

John Fedup

The Bunker Group

Looking on the track record of Euro project, for me more workable if consolidated commercialy under Airbus project. If it is work under inter governmental project, then have my doubt.
Perhaps rather than wasting money on FMTC development, Airbus should promote and support the C-390 like Boeing was supposed to do before the MAX debacle.

Any future medium and heavy military cargo lifter needs to be a blended wing body with some decent stealth.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Airbus should promote and support the C-390 like Boeing was supposed to do before the MAX debacle.
With C390 recent success momentum, including potential license build in ROK and India, I doubt Embrear wiling to go with Airbus. Airbus potentially want to take over and build under it's brand. Something that Embrear now increasingly will not agree. They try that with Boeing, now their momentum shown they can do it alone.

Besides the project if rumours are right is to build medium twin engine turboprop using TP400. Thus also increase users for TP400.
 
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