Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

[Musashi_kenshin]

Realistically any significant direct missile attacks into mainland China will likely end with a nuclear exchange.

I don't think so. If someone attacks China without provocation, maybe. But the likely scenario is where China strikes the first blow, whether against Taiwan, the US or Japan, leading to cruise missile attacks against Chinese airbases and ports.

"You can't retaliate against me with conventional weapons else I'll nuke you" isn't a strategy China can reasonably adopt, not least because it might encourage someone to used WMD against it first.

 

[John Fedup]

I don't think so. If someone attacks China without provocation, maybe. But the likely scenario is where China strikes the first blow, whether against Taiwan, the US or Japan, leading to cruise missile attacks against Chinese airbases and ports.

"You can't retaliate against me with conventional weapons else I'll nuke you" isn't a strategy China can reasonably adopt, not least because it might encourage someone to used WMD against it first.

I don’t really know how a Taiwan invasion would play out wrt to a potential nuclear exchange. As the attached link about Xi’s latest speeches regarding war preparations, things aren’t looking great. Begs the question, a nuclear exchange now or years from know? You can bet it isn’t only the US thinking about this, Russia no doubt is concerned. Unlike the West, Russia has extremely limited wrt a conventional military response against a future downturn in Russian-Chinese relations. Currently both nations have a significant nuclear advantage against China…nevertheless not an advantage that is worth much should stuff hit the fan.

Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War

The world should take him seriously.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[ngatimozart]

I don’t really know how a Taiwan invasion would play out wrt to a potential nuclear exchange. As the attached link about Xi’s latest speeches regarding war preparations, things aren’t looking great. Begs the question, a nuclear exchange now or years from know? You can bet it isn’t only the US thinking about this, Russia no doubt is concerned. Unlike the West, Russia has extremely limited wrt a conventional military response against a future downturn in Russian-Chinese relations. Currently both nations have a significant nuclear advantage against China…nevertheless not an advantage that is worth much should stuff hit the fan.

Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War

The world should take him seriously.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Kevin Rudd sums up western analysis of the CCP/PRC when he says:

"... it is no surprise that the question that now attracts more analytical attention than any other is the rise of China under President Xi Jinping and the challenge it presents to American power. In the run-up to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), as Xi has maneuvered to consolidate his power and secure an unprecedented third term, Western analysts have sought to decode the worldview that drives him and his ambitions for China.​

​

"One important body of thought has been largely absent from this search for understanding, however: Marxism-Leninism [emphasis mine]. This is odd because Marxism-Leninism has been China’s official ideology since 1949. But the omission is also understandable, since most Western thinkers long ago came to see communist ideology as effectively dead—even in China, where, in the late 1970s, the CCP leader Deng Xiaoping set aside the Marxist-Leninist orthodoxy of his predecessor, Mao Zedong, in favor of something more akin to state capitalism. Deng summed up his thoughts on the matter with characteristic bluntness: Bu zhenglun, “Let’s dispense with theory,” he told attendees at a major CCP conference in 1981. His successors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao followed his lead, rapidly expanding the role of the market in the Chinese domestic economy and embracing a foreign policy that maximized China’s participation in a global economic order led by the United States."​

He raises a very important point that illustrates much western thinking about the PRC. The majority, I would say vast majority, of western analysis and thing is fixated by the idea that Deng's economic reforms also meant political reforms and that increased trade, cultural, and diplomatic contact with the west would lead to democracy within the PRC. That was never an option and Deng never intended any lifting of political restrictions. It's been a self imposed blinding by western political elites, academics, and analysts.

"Xi has brought that era of pragmatic, nonideological governance to a crashing halt. In its place, he has developed a new form of Marxist nationalism that now shapes the presentation and substance of China’s politics, economy, and foreign policy. In doing so, Xi is not constructing theoretical castles in the air to rationalize decisions that the CCP has made for other, more practical reasons. Under Xi, ideology drives policy more often than the other way around. Xi has pushed politics to the Leninist left, economics to the Marxist left, and foreign policy to the nationalist right. He has reasserted the influence and control the CCP exerts over all domains of public policy and private life, reinvigorated state-owned enterprises, and placed new restrictions on the private sector. Meanwhile, he has stoked nationalism by pursuing an increasingly assertive foreign policy, turbocharged by a Marxist-inspired belief that history is irreversibly on China’s side and that a world anchored in Chinese power would produce a more just international order. In short, Xi’s rise has meant nothing less than the return of Ideological Man."​

The World According to Xi Jinping

What China’s ideologue in chief really believes.

www.foreignaffairs.com

The CCP has never had any intention of releasing its rip on power and never will. Xi and the CCP have seen the results of Gorbachev's perestroika and glasnost policies that lead to the demise of the CPSU and the dissolution of the USSR. The CCP will not repeat those political errors (in the CCP thinking) of Gorbachev.

 

[Ananda]

Taiwan's choice: peace or war, ex-president says after China trip

Current leader 'continues to lead Taiwan to danger,' Ma Ying-jeou says

asia.nikkei.com

KMT leader and Taiwan ex President clearly up the ante on next election. Playing what make difference between KMT and current ruling party. Talk with some Taiwanese colleagues, it is now begin to divide Taiwan electorate more and more. What ever people think on KMT, they are gaining ground in Taiwan politics, and more and more shown potential come back to power. They already gaining ground in some local elections, now only wait for timing to reclaim national leadership.

Taiwan’s KMT hopes for elections boost after China trip

Opposition party that once dominated the self-ruled island aims to show it can work better with Beijing than ruling DPP.

www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org

This couple months old article from Al Jazeera still relevant as shown continue division of Political and values approach between two opposite front on Taiwan. KMT it self try to sell to the public, that they are the ones that can only 'reason' with Xi's Beijing.

Regardless what the accusation toward KMT, however they are still on the 'goal' set by Chiang Kai Shek. ROC is part of China, and setting Taiwan as Independent entity outside China is not in line with CKS value. This makes Xi and CCP still see their old civil war nemesis as the best potential partner to deal with.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

...now only wait for timing to reclaim national leadership.

I think the implications of the KMT's performance in the local elections has been exaggerated. Nathan Batto, who writes a lot on Taiwan politics (helpfully in English), recently posted information showing that the KMT is already falling behind again in the polls.

Taiwanese also reject by a large margin the so-called 1992 consensus, which Ma praised during his trip to China.

Generally the KMT have a better chance of winning when they keep the political conversation away from China, hence their local election success. By focusing on a potential attack from China I'd say Ma isn't helping his party.

 

[Ananda]

the implications of the KMT's performance in the local elections has been exaggerated

Well when I talk with some of my Taiwanese contacts, the talk in the market is different thing. This is the problem with pool, depends on whose make them. However their recent surge in local election also means KMT political engine in locals politics is gaining ground. This means some resentment toward DPP policies also gaining ground.

Between Taiwanese Elections: The KMT’s Quest for True Blue - Egmont Institute

www.egmontinstitute.be

However it is too soon going to say DPP will maintain national leads or KMT already going to regain national leadership. Taiwanese that want to maintain status quo also has enough ground, which KMT more and more being considered as more capable to talk with Beijing on maintaining that status quo.

Taiwan always got this divide on those wanting to shown more independent identity and those who wants maintain status quo. Maintain status quo doesn't means kowtow to Beijing, and those in financial market prefer that. Those in status quo supporters mostly come from businesses (including employees) that have ties with Investment in mainland. Taiwan business do maintain large investment in mainland.

Hongkong situation already giving high doubt on Beijing promise of one nation two systems, even for those status quo supporters. However at least those in status quo camp believe Beijing still can be negotiated on status quo business sense. Their perception on Xi's is quite different as some in West and US try to put.

I can only base my thinking base on some talk with my contacts in Financial markets (which yes mostly status quo supporters, thus lean to KMT). So I'm not going to say KMT winning in last local elections and their proponents for status quo will not going to give them back national leadership. Too soon too tell, but KMT now clearly up the ante on attacking DPP as path to war.

 

[John Fedup]

Well when I talk with some of my Taiwanese contacts, the talk in the market is different thing. This is the problem with pool, depends on whose make them. However their recent surge in local election also means KMT political engine in locals politics is gaining ground. This means some resentment toward DPP policies also gaining ground.

Between Taiwanese Elections: The KMT’s Quest for True Blue - Egmont Institute

www.egmontinstitute.be

However it is too soon going to say DPP will maintain national leads or KMT already going to regain national leadership. Taiwanese that want to maintain status quo also has enough ground, which KMT more and more being considered as more capable to talk with Beijing on maintaining that status quo.

Taiwan always got this divide on those wanting to shown more independent identity and those who wants maintain status quo. Maintain status quo doesn't means kowtow to Beijing, and those in financial market prefer that. Those in status quo supporters mostly come from businesses (including employees) that have ties with Investment in mainland. Taiwan business do maintain large investment in mainland.

Hongkong situation already giving high doubt on Beijing promise of one nation two systems, even for those status quo supporters. However at least those in status quo camp believe Beijing still can be negotiated on status quo business sense. Their perception on Xi's is quite different as some in West and US try to put.

I can only base my thinking base on some talk with my contacts in Financial markets (which yes mostly status quo supporters, thus lean to KMT). So I'm not going to say KMT winning in last local elections and their proponents for status quo will not going to give them back national leadership. Too soon too tell, but KMT now clearly up the ante on attacking DPP as path to war.

Any kind of agreement with Xi's CCP is worthless. The Hong Kong result is proof. Even mainland billionaires are fair game for Xi. Taiwanese business leaders may prefer the status quo but when Xi gets control, the promised status quo will be something different, and not good for business. Smart business leaders will have planned exit strategies in place already.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I can only base my thinking base on some talk with my contacts in Financial markets (which yes mostly status quo supporters, thus lean to KMT).

You've rather answered your own question there. There are always groups that lean heavily one direction, hence why personal anecdotes are a terrible indication of electoral results.

I'm not sure that a "peace party" platform would work. As John says, recent history has shown that agreements with China under Xi's leadership are worth toilet paper. So far Chinese aggression has not led to positive changes for the CCP at the national level in Taiwan.

I genuinely think that China would get more favourable outcomes by dialing the aggression down and offering incentives. My feeling is that the military drills are more designed for domestic (Chinese) consumption and that Xi is sceptical that the KMT can win the presidency anytime soon. Otherwise he'd be keeping quiet and letting them focus on bread and butter issues.

In other news, there are now reportedly more than 200 US military trainers in Taiwan. I wonder if this is a new limit or if the number will keep going up over time.

 

[Vivendi]

Chinese envoy threatens 150,000 Filipino living in Taiwan:

The Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose 'Taiwan independence' rather than stoking the fire by offering the U.S. access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care about the 150,000 overseas foreign workers."

China Envoy Faces Backlash Over Threat to Philippine Lives in Taiwan (newsweek.com)

Somewhat OT, but interesting to see how aggressive China seems to become worldwide, for instance in the UK:

“One [member of Parliament who is a] China critic said he was told his safety could not be guaranteed on a trip to the Middle East over fears he could be extradited to Beijing”

“A Tory MP’s child allegedly had their university application jeopardised amid warnings Chinese funding would be pulled from the institution, while the child of one politician was knocked off course when they were blocked from travelling with a Chinese airline”

China accused of targeting MPs and their families in intimidation campaign (yahoo.com)

In the US, 2 men have been arrested for running a Chinese "police station" in the US. In addition 34 have been charged for running "monitoring and harassment campaigns"

US arrests two men over Chinese 'police station' in New York – DW – 04/17/2023

When these things happen in the UK and the US, I wonder what is going on in more "Chinese friendly" countries in Asia-Pacific!?

The hard lesson learned from Europe trying appeasement with Russia, was that it was highly counterproductive, and in the end we got a full invasion of Ukraine. But Asian culture is of course different from "Russian" culture and appeasement (or "striking a deal" as I am guessing it's called in Asia) might work. However I am somewhat skeptical about that. We shall see.

 

[Ananda]

There are always groups that lean heavily one direction, hence why personal anecdotes are a terrible indication of electoral results.

Yes, bias on sources from one sides is not good assessment. However yours on saying KMT election results is overated/exaggerated also based mostly on some pools. Election results is better then any pools, thus can't be said poling results is better to shown how Taiwanese fells then local elections results.

My feeling is that the military drills are more designed for domestic (Chinese) consumption and that Xi is sceptical that the KMT can win the presidency anytime soon

Off course it is also for Chinese domestic consumption, but also I believe more to US consumption. CCP care as much on what massage they are going to put to Washington as with Taipei.

Xi also knows Republicans and Democrats (even though both talks tough to Beijing on Taiwan issue), in reality has different approach on making deals. We see on how Trump and Biden approach different in reality on Taiwan issue. Just same as KMT and DPP.

Domestic politics is matter on both Washington and Taipei. Xi's hope as sides on Chinese domestic, also try to create divisions on Taipei domestic. Like I said there's division on Taiwan domestic, and Xi's seems in a way try to shown to Taiwan domestic KMT has more advantages on making deals with Beijing then DPP 'confrontation' approach.

Taiwanese business leaders may prefer the status quo but when Xi gets control, the promised status quo will be something different, and not good for business.

There's enough portion of domestic Hong Kong that accepting Beijing new policies (thus Xi approach), as much as those in Hong Kong that want to oppose (and decided to even leave Hong Kong). Same thing as in Taiwan on those who still want to bargain on status quo, as those which choose more assertive approach to Beijing.

Beijing Xi's seems so far playing on that domestic division on Taiwan electorates. There's enough evidence Beijing prefer KMT toward DPP. Western media assessment is Western thinking. How locals Taiwanese thinking is still divided on this, but I'm cautioning thinking that saying Xi's approach will not going to give results that Beijing hope on election.

Just like in Hong Kong, Beijing clearly tried to divide Taiwanese domestics. Especially on those Beijing sees as more Western thinking and leaning.

Add:

Fund flows, geopolitics are Hong Kong’s ‘biggest risks’, HKMA says

The HKMA sits on the world’s seventh-largest foreign-currency reserves, a financial war chest that quintupled over 25 years to US$460 billion at the end of May

amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject.org

This article more on Hong Kong situation. However shown despite all the talks in Western media, that Hong Kong will lose its position and relevance as one of prominent Financial center in Asia (even globally), however the big portion of capital still there. Yes there's those in Hong Kong leave, and Singapore become largest recipient on those financial capital and expert that leave Hong Kong. Including some of Western financial institutions.

Still Hong Kong base so far stay. Hong Kong billionaire's and affluent segments mostly still stay, and Hong Kong financial market still stay relevant in Global positioning. Just like any those with money, they're also diversify their holdings to several markets. However same thing happen to all those with money everywhere in this world.

There's say in Chinese media and online weibo communities on getting rid of Hong Kong bad 'weed'. If this means tens of thousands left Hong Kong with their expertise and capitals, but also means bulk of Hong Kong capital still stay, and so does bulk of Hong Kong Financial expertise. Seems something that Beijing willing to pay the price for.

So if this in the end will happen to Taiwan 'if' say KMT regain national helm and some more assertive Taiwanese then decided to leave. Well who knows if this is also what Xi's CCP aim for.

 

[Vivendi]

Taiwanese also reject by a large margin the so-called 1992 consensus, which Ma praised during his trip to China.

National Chengchi University's Election Study Center (ESC) did a biannual survey on core political attitudes in Taiwan last year, the results are quite clear. The vast majority of the Taiwanese prefer status quo. There is a strong trend in the direction of complete independence however China's saber rattling no doubt is dampening this trend quite strongly and that's why the majority prefers the status quo which is de facto independence.

A record 28.6 percent of those polled said they preferred to "maintain the status quo indefinitely," while 28.3 percent chose the status quo to "decide at a later date." Meanwhile, 25.2 percent of respondents opted for the status quo with a view to "move toward independence."

If I got my math right, that adds up to a massive 82.1%

Taiwan's Desire for Unification With China Near Record Low as Tensions Rise (newsweek.com)

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

US rocket systems ahead of schedule - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com

HIMARS sales to Taiwan are on track - and in one respect early.

The first batch of 11 will be delivered in either 2024 or 2025. A second batch of 18, which was ordered instead of Paladin self-propelled howitzers, is actually planned to arrive in 2026, one to two years earlier than expected. Last year it was reported that the US couldn't make the Paladins available anytime soon due to backlogs in production and would take until at least 2026 to deliver.

I think that getting 18 extra HIMARS around the same time, or sooner, than the Paladins could be procured was a good idea.

 

[John Fedup]

US rocket systems ahead of schedule - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com

HIMARS sales to Taiwan are on track - and in one respect early.

The first batch of 11 will be delivered in either 2024 or 2025. A second batch of 18, which was ordered instead of Paladin self-propelled howitzers, is actually planned to arrive in 2026, one to two years earlier than expected. Last year it was reported that the US couldn't make the Paladins available anytime soon due to backlogs in production and would take until at least 2026 to deliver.

I think that getting 18 extra HIMARS around the same time, or sooner, than the Paladins could be procured was a good idea.

I assume SKorea doesn’t want to rock the boat with additional alternatives that could be added?

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I assume SKorea doesn’t want to rock the boat with additional alternatives that could be added?

Yes, I'm sure that's the case. Selling artillery to Taiwan would really throw a spanner in the works with Sino-ROK relations. President Yoon is less prone to pandering to Beijing over security matters like his predecessor, but he won't want to rock the boat that much. His position will be that South Korea is too exposed economically (over $50 billion trade surplus in SK's favour).

EDIT: Rather than create another post, the US is reportedly preparing a weapons package of around $500 million using authority granted by Congress to release up to $1 billion worth of items. This could quickly boost Taiwan's missile stockpiles, but exactly what it consists of is unknown.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

According to a press release from Japan’s Ministry of Defense Joint Staff, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has detected a flotilla from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy. The PLA Navy flotilla, as reported in the Japanese press release, was first observed on 30 April when it sailed from the East China Sea through the Tsushima Strait into the Sea of Japan.

Patriots Deployed Near Taiwan, Chinese PLA Warships Sighted Near Japan; Is Indo-Pacific Emerging The Next Battle Ground?

As tensions rise between China and Japan, a flotilla from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has been sighted in waters near Japanese islands. China’s ‘Satellite Killer’ Spacecraft Threatens To Puncture US Military In Space By Crippling Its Recon, Navigation & EW Satellites This move...

eurasiantimes.com

A sensational title, but the flotilla consists of just four ships.



And Taiwan will receive the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) M142 launchers it bought from the United States a year earlier than originally scheduled.

Taiwan to receive HIMARS one year earlier than expected: Military - Focus Taiwan

Taiwan will receive the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) M142 launchers it bought from the United States a year earlier than originally scheduled, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced on Wednesday.

focustaiwan.tw

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

According to Japan's latest defense whitepaper, which was released on 28 July, Japan will spend $309,75 billion on defense between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2028, compared with $122.48 billion between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2023, this is more than a doubling.

Japan forecasts large boost to defense spending over next five years

Japan might spend $309.75 billion on defense between FY24 and FY28, compared with $122.48 billion during the previous five fiscal years.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|"China's customs office announced that an existing ban on seafood imports from Fukushima and some prefectures would be immediately extended to cover the whole of Japan to "protect the health of Chinese consumers"|

That sounds like a start of a trade war.

Fukushima: China retaliates as Japan releases treated nuclear water

The controversial discharge of treated nuclear water sparks an outcry and a seafood ban from China.

www.bbc.com

 

[John Fedup]

|"China's customs office announced that an existing ban on seafood imports from Fukushima and some prefectures would be immediately extended to cover the whole of Japan to "protect the health of Chinese consumers"|

That sounds like a start of a trade war.

Fukushima: China retaliates as Japan releases treated nuclear water

The controversial discharge of treated nuclear water sparks an outcry and a seafood ban from China.

www.bbc.com

Perhaps a bit of politics but clearly others in the region along with Japanese fishermen understandably have concerns. WRT tritium, reasonably short half life but carbon -14 at 5,700 years a tad long. Both elements are biologically significant and I guess experts will disagree on acceptable release levels. Seafood is a diminishing resource so a Chinese ban hurts China just as much if not more than Japan.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

|"China's customs office announced that an existing ban on seafood imports from Fukushima and some prefectures would be immediately extended to cover the whole of Japan to "protect the health of Chinese consumers"|

Ah yes, China with its incredibly high food standards. So high that top level CCP members have their own special supplies that ordinary peasants can't access.

As you say, this is a political decision from the CCP. But the article was interesting in suggesting that the ban may be short-lived:

"China's growing economic difficulties could mean that any ban is relatively brief and narrow, so as to limit the negative impact on Chinese importers and business sentiment," said Mr Thomas.

I'm sure ordinary Japanese consumers would hope the ban would stay in place a lot longer, so that prices drop from less overseas demand.

 

[John Fedup]

Kim is planning to visit Putin in Russia via his armoured train. I believe Putin also has a special train. I guess both of these wackos have good reasons to avoid air travel.