The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

swerve

Super Moderator
The reality is that most countries and people [maybe you're an exception] prior to the invasion assumed that the Russian would enter Kiev after a few days or that the Ukrainians would put up fierce but ultimately futile resistance. Very few were aware that the Russian army was unprepared for a high intensity protracted war [for reasons which have been discussed extensively]; that the political leadership was under major illusions and that the Ukrainians had done such a great job preparing themselves.

As such I wouldn't hold it against him that his assessment [like many others] was proven wrong by subsequent events.
Absolutely right.

In 2014 the Ukrainian army had shown itself capable of defeating the Donbas rebels, even with semi-surreptitious Russian support, but when the Russian army joined in the Ukrainians were quickly defeated. With the possible exception of the westerners who'd helped them to improve, I don't know of anyone who realised just how much better they'd got.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I saw a crossing by small boats of approx 40 Ukranian troops going to the East or left bank of the Dnipro River West of the Nova Khoghva( sp?) Dam on a YT channel called the " Enforcer" that is unabashedly pro Ukranian. I can't seem to locate a clean video . I will look for it. Ukranian officials have spoken on their Telegram channels of liberating the Kinburn Peninsula next .
From what I gather the situation on the East bank of Khearson Oblast is now very much fluid. Supposedly the Russians are actually digging new defensive lines in Crimea so the future of the Russian occupation of East or South Khearson is hard to predict. I am looking for more concrete updates.
Leftyhunter
Spelling - Kakhovka.
 

Big Slick

New Member
goes without saying that Ukrainians can, reasonably field 2-3 million soldiers over the coming 2-3 years, should they be required to,
Who is going to pay the bill for 2-3 million Ukrainian troops to be trained and outfitted for 2-3 years? Who is going to keep Ukraine government solvent and subsidize it’s failing economy? Will Europe suffer economic turmoil and energy interruptions for 2-3 years? I think this is an unrealistic level of support.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Again, simply put, if the French can no longer send CAESARs, access to a new SPG is beneficial for keeping up the pace of the war effort. The Ukrainians are experiencing attrition among their howitzers, they must continue to be replaced in order for the war to be won. If the French say "sorry, we can't give you anymore right now", the Swedes become an interesting player in that they have a system, some of which they could likely spare, that could replace the French influx of CAESARs as that supply dries up.

I understand the logistical problem is presents, but that's the reality of the war Ukraine is fighting. If they could get there hands on 200-300 of one type of system, with tons of spare parts, they'd almost certainly take that option. Unfortunately, the only system that could be realistically sent in those type of quantities would be the M109 (most of which would have to come from the USA) and I don't think you'll see anyone (even the Americans) make that level of asset commitment. At least not in the short term.
Well, that depends .... . . . .

Italy had 280 M109L (39 cal gun, same as FH70). They're no longer in service. It's sent or is sending 20-30 to Ukraine. I don't know how many Italy still has in storage, but the fact that Leonardo has been offering an upgrade for sale suggests the number is significant.
 
Who is going to pay the bill for 2-3 million Ukrainian troops to be trained and outfitted for 2-3 years? Who is going to keep Ukraine government solvent and subsidize it’s failing economy? Will Europe suffer economic turmoil and energy interruptions for 2-3 years? I think this is an unrealistic level of support.
The best way to prevent an adversary from attack you is to have him fight someone else and suffer heavy losses. Or the best defense is a good offense. It's cheaper by far to destroy Russian military personnel and their equipment by supporting a proxy then for the US or another Western country fight Russia.
Russia did the same to the US and it's allies in Korea and Vietnam so now it's the Wests time to return the favor.
Leftyhunter
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Absolutely right.

In 2014 the Ukrainian army had shown itself capable of defeating the Donbas rebels, even with semi-surreptitious Russian support, but when the Russian army joined in the Ukrainians were quickly defeated. With the possible exception of the westerners who'd helped them to improve, I don't know of anyone who realised just how much better they'd got.
Or how much worse the Russian military would be. The fundamental issue is that the Serdyukov-Gerasimov reform was halted and partially rolled back. Some elite units still perform well, and there are stocks of modern equipment and munitions available for a small war or a limited operation. Prime example, Russia started using Krasnopol' and loitering munitions as soon as they got bogged down near Kiev. But they didn't have nearly enough to change the outcome, only enough to do some damage. The 810th MarBde showed itself a capable and professional fighting force, but most line motor-rifles did not. Consider how tiny the scale of Russian involvement was in '14-'15.

It goes without saying that Ukrainians can, reasonably field 2-3 million soldiers over the coming 2-3 years, should they be required to, as long as Western support does not stop.
It does not go without saying. I suspect that if Ukraine takes the kind of casualties that require that many people to be called up, this could turn the opinion against the war inside Ukraine. A big factor in the support for the war effort is the fact that the war effort has been fairly successful.

Has this professor of sociology from India ever been to Ukraine ? This person you cite states it was Ukraine's decision to join N.A.T.O triggered this conflict Ukraine declared it was a priority to join N.A.T.O in 2014 after Russia forcefully annexed Crimea ,Ukraine as a sovereign country should be allowed to apply to join such an organisation as per Finland and Sweden , this sociology professor goes on to suggest that the war is being fueled by western countries arming Ukraine ,which only significantly happened after Russia invaded ,certainly Russia has also called for these arm shipment to cease to shorten the war, in regards of media guessing in their reporting we often post from this body ,is it inaccurate in its summary from its intelligence gathering ?
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Nonsense. Ukraine had NATO aspirations for nearly 20 years now, probably even longer. The decision wasn't triggered by the annexation of Crimea.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Who is going to pay the bill for 2-3 million Ukrainian troops to be trained and outfitted for 2-3 years? Who is going to keep Ukraine government solvent and subsidize it’s failing economy? Will Europe suffer economic turmoil and energy interruptions for 2-3 years? I think this is an unrealistic level of support.
What's the cost of not providing that support? We have recently seen the cost of not adequately supporting Afghanistan. Sometimes the cheaper option, over the long term, is to provide support.

Arguably Ukraine is the latest on the list of independent states that Putin believes should still be part of a greater Russia. The cost of not supporting Ukraine could very well be the invasion and annexation of more countries.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Or how much worse the Russian military would be. The fundamental issue is that the Serdyukov-Gerasimov reform was halted and partially rolled back. Some elite units still perform well, and there are stocks of modern equipment and munitions available for a small war or a limited operation. Prime example, Russia started using Krasnopol' and loitering munitions as soon as they got bogged down near Kiev. But they didn't have nearly enough to change the outcome, only enough to do some damage. The 810th MarBde showed itself a capable and professional fighting force, but most line motor-rifles did not. Consider how tiny the scale of Russian involvement was in '14-'15.



It does not go without saying. I suspect that if Ukraine takes the kind of casualties that require that many people to be called up, this could turn the opinion against the war inside Ukraine. A big factor in the support for the war effort is the fact that the war effort has been fairly successful.



Nonsense. Ukraine had NATO aspirations for nearly 20 years now, probably even longer. The decision wasn't triggered by the annexation of Crimea.
I think, considering what has happened, that having NATO aspirations is probably understandable. When you feel threatened, any alliance or support is preferable to none.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
China's Top Trading Partners 2021
Per this chart in 2021 China's exports to the US was 521 billion USD which accounted for 17.2 percent of total Chinese exports vs Russia at 59.5 billion USD which is two percent of Chinese exports. Yes China can risk that all on behalf of trying to conquer Taiwan or support Russia but it's not a great economic decision to do so.
Leftyhunter
China can't look for alternatives to the US has its trade with the US alone is several times the size of it's trade with Russia same for Chinese trade with the EU. By the same token who can nations such has Brazil, South Africa and India substitute for the US and or the EU?
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/chn#:~:text=Destinations In September 2022, China,and Australia ($11.7B).
Per one chart 16 percent of Chinese trade is with US vs less then two percent with Russia. Russias GDP is arguably a little less the the State of Texas.
Leftyhunter
The Chinese media you refer to face government censorship The Unintended Consequences of China’s Stance on Ukraine – The Diplomat
Patrick Lancaster seems to have his own business in promotion of propaganda for Russia
Meet the US ‘Journalist’ Helping Spread the Kremlin’s Propaganda (vice.com)
If I wanted to read media reports from India on the Ukraine war I could read the Hindustan times
Has mosts pundits that being sources by Western Media has been to Ukraine, or more precise has been to Ukraine war ground ?

Again this is shown biases to every media, so don't change subject. I put this Indian pundits as one of example. Predictable you are not going to agree on anyone who does not agree with your precious western sources and agenda.
I will clean this up when I have a moment, but this is a reminder to ALL posters. General discussions of relations between Russia and the West, including but not limited to trading partners, economic influence, long standing relationships, historic root causes of modern day political friction and conflict, belong in the appropriate thread. This thread is for discussions surrounding the current war in Ukraine. Chinese trading patterns and discussions of western media veracity or lack thereof belong elsewhere.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I will clean this up when I have a moment, but this is a reminder to ALL posters. General discussions of relations between Russia and the West, including but not limited to trading partners, economic influence, long standing relationships, historic root causes of modern day political friction and conflict, belong in the appropriate thread. This thread is for discussions surrounding the current war in Ukraine. Chinese trading patterns and discussions of western media veracity or lack thereof belong elsewhere.
Sorry didn't see this until after I posted.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Nov 1st-4th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa-Krivoy Rog.

Russian loitering munition hits power infrastructure in Krivoy Rog.


Russian strikes in Nikolaev.


HIMARS strikes at the Russian crossing near the Antonov bridge.


Russian loitering munitions on Ukrainian M-777s. Note the guns in the first clip are packed for transport.


Two destroyed Ukrainian BTRs, one is a BTR-70. Reportedly this is failed attack, Kherson region. Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian Oshkosh OMTV destroyed, Kherson region.


Battle damage from Russian strikes in Nikolaev.


Russian Zala and Kub UAVs, Kherson region.


Defensive concrete barriers being set up in Kherson. Given hindsight, this was likely an effort to deceive Ukraine about the planned withdrawal.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russia allegedly striking a large Ukrainian base in Zaporozhye. Claimed are two M-777s and one Caesar destroyed, but of course we can't make anything out here.


Russian Shahed strikes, Dnepropetrovsk area.


The North.

Fires burn after Russian strikes in Poltava.


Kiev stands dark due to damage to the power grid.


Water lines in Kiev due to infrastructure damage. If these strikes continue, the humanitarian situation will get worse.


Oskol Front.

Russian strikes in Kharkov.


A Ukrainian vehicle gets hit near Torskoe. Note Russia has launched counter-attacks towards Torskoe and Terny but after some initial gains, they failed to take either village.


Allegedly Ukrainian BMP hits a landmine near Kupyansk, note the infantry moving behind it.


Russian mobilized personnel in Kharkov region.


Russian BARS-16 soldiers near Svatovo. Note they were not part of the giant mobilization, yet they still don't have consistent uniforms or kit.


Russian 2S5s, 2S7s, 2S3s, BM-27s, and Grads in Kharkov region.


Assorted footage of Russian troops in Kharkov region.


Russian artillery recon unit in Kharkov region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

Russian Su-25 firing large rockets, possibly S-25s, in Mar'inka. Note they're not flying very low.


LNR 4th Bde flamethrower unit near Spornoe. Note we are talking about a specialized type of RPG, not actual flamethrowers.


DNR 100th Bde has taken Ukrainian positions near Nevel'skoe by storm, and has taken POWs.


Sparta btln hits a Ukrainian MT-12. Location unclear. The video claims its destroyed, but I'm not so certain.


LNR artillery hits allegedly a Ukrainian munition storage on the Lisichansk axis.


Wagner artillery firing on Ukrainian forces near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. You can see the smaller explosions from the shells impacting, and the bigger secondaries when they hit something that cooks off. The video alleges these are vehicles getting hit.


Russian TOS-1 firing on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


DNR mortars hit a Ukrainian position, then fire in retreating Ukrainian soldiers.


Russian 2S7s firing on Ugledar, likely in an attempt to supress Ukrainian positions or artillery there, firing on Pavlovka.


Russian/rebel forces have reportedly gained a few streets in Mar'inka.


Wagner fighters near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note they're pretty well equipped.


Russian forces have captured an anti-drone rifle in Pavlovka.


Shellings of Donetsk continue but they have reduced significantly over the end of October.


DNR convicts are now training for war under the auspices of the Kaskad Troops of Interior formation. Note they're training on the SPG-9, a quite old recoilless rifle (though we do also see an RPG and a PKM).


Russian Pacific Fleet Marines with a Grad near Pavlovka.


Russia.

A pair of Ka-52 helos were destroyed by infiltrators at an airfield in Pskov region. The base was previously called out for having very lax security.


The town of Krasnooktyabrskoe in Kursk region got hit.


Russia reservists are up-armoring their Ural truck, Tver'. I can't help but wonder if this is a sign of lack of actual armored vehicles.


Russian mobilized personnel in Rostov. They have body armor and standardized uniforms, but the body armor is not standard Russian kit. They likely purchased whatever was available.


Russian reservists from Northern Osetia and Dagestan are heading to war.


Russian National Guard police units are training mobilized personnel near St. Petersburg.


Cargo flights from Iran to Russia continue.


Misc.

Ukrainian truck getting hit by an LMUR. To me it looks like a dump truck, but it's hard to be sure. Of course civilian vehicles to get used by Ukrainian forces regularly.


Ukrainian Strela-10 getting hit by a loitering munition.


2 Ukrainian FH-70 getting hit by a loitering munitions. Location and context unclear.


Russian Pantsyr (I think?) getting hit by a PGM, location unclear.


Allegedly 3 Russian Giatsint-B towed guns getting hit by Excalibur shells. Location unclear, and I can't really make out what's getting hit.


Gepard in Ukrainian service. Location and context unclear.


Another prisoner exchange took place between Russia and Ukraine, 107 for 107. Details are lacking.


New Russian AMN-590951 MRAP in Ukraine.


Su-34 being loaded up with FAB-500ShNs.


A captured T-90M in Ukrainian hands, likely that same one from Kharkov region.


Russian sources indicate a new type of loitering munition being used in Ukraine, based on the Lancet, currently known as Izdelie 51 with a cumulative warhead, and only one set of X-wins. Others have suggested this is an Iranian import.


Belarus.


Belarus is reportedly sending 20 BMP-2s to Russia either as a sale or as military aid.


Ukrainian forces on the Belorussian border, with NLAWs and M-240s.


NATO/EU.

Dingo armored cars being prepared for shipment to Ukraine from Germany.

 

IIO2

Member
EU officially kicks off its program to train 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers at unspecified locations across Europe. The initiative will be paid for by the EU, has an initial budget of $106 million. Note that this 15,000 is over and above the 10,000 that are in the midst of being trained in Britain as part of a multi-national effort. While the British effort is expected to be completed within 1 year, the EU effort will be spread over two years.

EU launches program to train 15,000 Ukrainian troops – news / The New Voice of Ukraine (nv.ua)
 

IIO2

Member
At the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a new $500 Million military aid package for Ukraine. The specifics of the package have not yet been released, nor has the timeline for the delivery of the aid announced.

Canada sanctions 23 Russians, announces $500M military aid package for Ukraine - National | Globalnews.ca

I hope to see a couple more packages of this size announced in 2023, even if Canada has to buy the weapons from 3rd party sources to get them to the Ukrainians. There are plenty of M109s around the world in storage. There might still be some T-72 tanks that can be refurbished. Drone contracts and 155mm artillery contracts need to be signed for 2023. More winter wear will be required, etc. Lots required to keep the Ukrainians in a good spot.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
A while ago I watched a video of an interview of Russian prisoners of war. If I remember correctly this man ((Yevgeny Anatolievich Nuzhin (1967 – November 2022)) was in that movie. Now the internet is abuzz with his killing. Putin's Chef who runs the Wagner group publicly defended the killing after a video of the incident appeared on the grey zone.


 

Larry_L

Active Member
It would seem that the Ukraine military has a long reach to be able to destroy helio's at a base inside Russia.




I cannot believe that all the other incidents of damage to infrastructure in Russia can be attributed to Ukraine. I suspect that opposition to the war by the Population of Russia is responsible for some of the damage. Or maybe poor smoking habits are responsible.

The latest is a factory Poldeska.



There have been many incidents this year in Russia. A few were probably done by Ukraine, but not all.


 
It appears that by using small boats to land platoon size Ukranian forces on the Kinburn Peninsula the Ukranians can safe guard costal cities such has Odessa and Khearson prevent Russian forces from shelling at least part of Western Khearson Oblast. By gaining a foothold on the Kinburn Peninsula the Ukranians could then mount larger offensive movements into the Eastern part of the Khearson Oblast then eventually into Crimea.
Leftyhunter
 
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/yuaqqn We can't know the exact state of morale in the Russian Army but if this video reflects the norm that's not good news for the Russian Army. Based on various translations the Russian Mobik is complaining to his commanding officer that his unit is not receiving enough realistic marksmanship training. In another video of their interaction the same Mobik shoves his CO in the chest which isn't exactly proper military protocol.
Leftyhunter
 
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