The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Leftyhunter · Nov 13, 2022

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/ytvpnp

This appears to be an approx forty man Ukranian raiding party and or reconnaissance in force unit crossing the Dnipro River just after the Russians did so.
Leftyhunter

Leftyhunter · Nov 13, 2022

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/yu8u3a

@Amanda ,
You know what Russian soldiers would rather not fight ? These guys.
Leftyhunter

swerve · Nov 13, 2022

STURM said:
The reality is that most countries and people [maybe you're an exception] prior to the invasion assumed that the Russian would enter Kiev after a few days or that the Ukrainians would put up fierce but ultimately futile resistance. Very few were aware that the Russian army was unprepared for a high intensity protracted war [for reasons which have been discussed extensively]; that the political leadership was under major illusions and that the Ukrainians had done such a great job preparing themselves.

As such I wouldn't hold it against him that his assessment [like many others] was proven wrong by subsequent events.

Absolutely right.

In 2014 the Ukrainian army had shown itself capable of defeating the Donbas rebels, even with semi-surreptitious Russian support, but when the Russian army joined in the Ukrainians were quickly defeated. With the possible exception of the westerners who'd helped them to improve, I don't know of anyone who realised just how much better they'd got.

swerve · Nov 13, 2022

Leftyhunter said:
I saw a crossing by small boats of approx 40 Ukranian troops going to the East or left bank of the Dnipro River West of the Nova Khoghva( sp?) Dam on a YT channel called the " Enforcer" that is unabashedly pro Ukranian. I can't seem to locate a clean video . I will look for it. Ukranian officials have spoken on their Telegram channels of liberating the Kinburn Peninsula next .
From what I gather the situation on the East bank of Khearson Oblast is now very much fluid. Supposedly the Russians are actually digging new defensive lines in Crimea so the future of the Russian occupation of East or South Khearson is hard to predict. I am looking for more concrete updates.
Leftyhunter

Spelling - Kakhovka.

Big Slick · Nov 13, 2022

IIO2 said:
goes without saying that Ukrainians can, reasonably field 2-3 million soldiers over the coming 2-3 years, should they be required to,

Who is going to pay the bill for 2-3 million Ukrainian troops to be trained and outfitted for 2-3 years? Who is going to keep Ukraine government solvent and subsidize it’s failing economy? Will Europe suffer economic turmoil and energy interruptions for 2-3 years? I think this is an unrealistic level of support.

swerve · Nov 13, 2022

IIO2 said:
Again, simply put, if the French can no longer send CAESARs, access to a new SPG is beneficial for keeping up the pace of the war effort. The Ukrainians are experiencing attrition among their howitzers, they must continue to be replaced in order for the war to be won. If the French say "sorry, we can't give you anymore right now", the Swedes become an interesting player in that they have a system, some of which they could likely spare, that could replace the French influx of CAESARs as that supply dries up.

I understand the logistical problem is presents, but that's the reality of the war Ukraine is fighting. If they could get there hands on 200-300 of one type of system, with tons of spare parts, they'd almost certainly take that option. Unfortunately, the only system that could be realistically sent in those type of quantities would be the M109 (most of which would have to come from the USA) and I don't think you'll see anyone (even the Americans) make that level of asset commitment. At least not in the short term.

Well, that depends .... . . . .

Italy had 280 M109L (39 cal gun, same as FH70). They're no longer in service. It's sent or is sending 20-30 to Ukraine. I don't know how many Italy still has in storage, but the fact that Leonardo has been offering an upgrade for sale suggests the number is significant.

Leftyhunter · Nov 13, 2022

Big Slick said:
Who is going to pay the bill for 2-3 million Ukrainian troops to be trained and outfitted for 2-3 years? Who is going to keep Ukraine government solvent and subsidize it’s failing economy? Will Europe suffer economic turmoil and energy interruptions for 2-3 years? I think this is an unrealistic level of support.

The best way to prevent an adversary from attack you is to have him fight someone else and suffer heavy losses. Or the best defense is a good offense. It's cheaper by far to destroy Russian military personnel and their equipment by supporting a proxy then for the US or another Western country fight Russia.
Russia did the same to the US and it's allies in Korea and Vietnam so now it's the Wests time to return the favor.
Leftyhunter

Feanor · Nov 13, 2022

swerve said:
Absolutely right.

In 2014 the Ukrainian army had shown itself capable of defeating the Donbas rebels, even with semi-surreptitious Russian support, but when the Russian army joined in the Ukrainians were quickly defeated. With the possible exception of the westerners who'd helped them to improve, I don't know of anyone who realised just how much better they'd got.

Or how much worse the Russian military would be. The fundamental issue is that the Serdyukov-Gerasimov reform was halted and partially rolled back. Some elite units still perform well, and there are stocks of modern equipment and munitions available for a small war or a limited operation. Prime example, Russia started using Krasnopol' and loitering munitions as soon as they got bogged down near Kiev. But they didn't have nearly enough to change the outcome, only enough to do some damage. The 810th MarBde showed itself a capable and professional fighting force, but most line motor-rifles did not. Consider how tiny the scale of Russian involvement was in '14-'15.

IIO2 said:
It goes without saying that Ukrainians can, reasonably field 2-3 million soldiers over the coming 2-3 years, should they be required to, as long as Western support does not stop.

It does not go without saying. I suspect that if Ukraine takes the kind of casualties that require that many people to be called up, this could turn the opinion against the war inside Ukraine. A big factor in the support for the war effort is the fact that the war effort has been fairly successful.

seaspear said:
Has this professor of sociology from India ever been to Ukraine ? This person you cite states it was Ukraine's decision to join N.A.T.O triggered this conflict Ukraine declared it was a priority to join N.A.T.O in 2014 after Russia forcefully annexed Crimea ,Ukraine as a sovereign country should be allowed to apply to join such an organisation as per Finland and Sweden , this sociology professor goes on to suggest that the war is being fueled by western countries arming Ukraine ,which only significantly happened after Russia invaded ,certainly Russia has also called for these arm shipment to cease to shorten the war, in regards of media guessing in their reporting we often post from this body ,is it inaccurate in its summary from its intelligence gathering ?
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Nonsense. Ukraine had NATO aspirations for nearly 20 years now, probably even longer. The decision wasn't triggered by the annexation of Crimea.

Volkodav · Nov 13, 2022

Big Slick said:
Who is going to pay the bill for 2-3 million Ukrainian troops to be trained and outfitted for 2-3 years? Who is going to keep Ukraine government solvent and subsidize it’s failing economy? Will Europe suffer economic turmoil and energy interruptions for 2-3 years? I think this is an unrealistic level of support.

What's the cost of not providing that support? We have recently seen the cost of not adequately supporting Afghanistan. Sometimes the cheaper option, over the long term, is to provide support.

Arguably Ukraine is the latest on the list of independent states that Putin believes should still be part of a greater Russia. The cost of not supporting Ukraine could very well be the invasion and annexation of more countries.

Volkodav · Nov 13, 2022

Feanor said:
Or how much worse the Russian military would be. The fundamental issue is that the Serdyukov-Gerasimov reform was halted and partially rolled back. Some elite units still perform well, and there are stocks of modern equipment and munitions available for a small war or a limited operation. Prime example, Russia started using Krasnopol' and loitering munitions as soon as they got bogged down near Kiev. But they didn't have nearly enough to change the outcome, only enough to do some damage. The 810th MarBde showed itself a capable and professional fighting force, but most line motor-rifles did not. Consider how tiny the scale of Russian involvement was in '14-'15.

It does not go without saying. I suspect that if Ukraine takes the kind of casualties that require that many people to be called up, this could turn the opinion against the war inside Ukraine. A big factor in the support for the war effort is the fact that the war effort has been fairly successful.

Nonsense. Ukraine had NATO aspirations for nearly 20 years now, probably even longer. The decision wasn't triggered by the annexation of Crimea.

I think, considering what has happened, that having NATO aspirations is probably understandable. When you feel threatened, any alliance or support is preferable to none.

Feanor · Nov 13, 2022

Leftyhunter said:
China's Top Trading Partners 2021
Per this chart in 2021 China's exports to the US was 521 billion USD which accounted for 17.2 percent of total Chinese exports vs Russia at 59.5 billion USD which is two percent of Chinese exports. Yes China can risk that all on behalf of trying to conquer Taiwan or support Russia but it's not a great economic decision to do so.
Leftyhunter

Leftyhunter said:
China can't look for alternatives to the US has its trade with the US alone is several times the size of it's trade with Russia same for Chinese trade with the EU. By the same token who can nations such has Brazil, South Africa and India substitute for the US and or the EU?
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/chn#:~:text=Destinations In September 2022, China,and Australia ($11.7B).
Per one chart 16 percent of Chinese trade is with US vs less then two percent with Russia. Russias GDP is arguably a little less the the State of Texas.
Leftyhunter

seaspear said:
The Chinese media you refer to face government censorship The Unintended Consequences of China’s Stance on Ukraine – The Diplomat
Patrick Lancaster seems to have his own business in promotion of propaganda for Russia
Meet the US ‘Journalist’ Helping Spread the Kremlin’s Propaganda (vice.com)
If I wanted to read media reports from India on the Ukraine war I could read the Hindustan times

Ananda said:
Has mosts pundits that being sources by Western Media has been to Ukraine, or more precise has been to Ukraine war ground ?

Again this is shown biases to every media, so don't change subject. I put this Indian pundits as one of example. Predictable you are not going to agree on anyone who does not agree with your precious western sources and agenda.

I will clean this up when I have a moment, but this is a reminder to ALL posters. General discussions of relations between Russia and the West, including but not limited to trading partners, economic influence, long standing relationships, historic root causes of modern day political friction and conflict, belong in the appropriate thread. This thread is for discussions surrounding the current war in Ukraine. Chinese trading patterns and discussions of western media veracity or lack thereof belong elsewhere.

Volkodav · Nov 13, 2022

Feanor said:
I will clean this up when I have a moment, but this is a reminder to ALL posters. General discussions of relations between Russia and the West, including but not limited to trading partners, economic influence, long standing relationships, historic root causes of modern day political friction and conflict, belong in the appropriate thread. This thread is for discussions surrounding the current war in Ukraine. Chinese trading patterns and discussions of western media veracity or lack thereof belong elsewhere.

Sorry didn't see this until after I posted.

Feanor · Nov 13, 2022

Update. Nov 1st-4th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa-Krivoy Rog.

Russian loitering munition hits power infrastructure in Krivoy Rog.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Удар по Кривому Рогу: дрон-камикадзе атаковал объект энергоинфраструктуры, значительные разрушения, — гауляйтер Вилкул t.me/RVvoenkor

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