The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Ananda]

it's also true that the combined US/EU/UK economies are much larger than Russia's, and can therefore absorb more than Russia's much smaller economy

This's back to 'old' argument as debating in other thread. West is much bigger then Russian economy. Western trade war will bring down Russian economy in few months, and force Putin to capitulate. That's what Washington and Brussel talking in beginning of this war. As in other thread shown, this is not what happened.

Like I said each side now already miss calculating opponents ability to withstand. US and Collective West hope Russian economy collapsing in months (not happening yet), while Russian hoping the costs of trade war will force Western constituents to change government in ballots box (which is also so far not happening). Similar thing on the condition in the battle ground. The attrition rate on each sides (whichever the real rate calculation are), still not translate to capitulation of any sides.

Thus the attritions whether in the ground or in economics market still not forcing war closure anytime soon yet.

 

[Vivendi]

This's back to 'old' argument as debating in other thread. West is much bigger then Russian economy. Western trade war will bring down Russian economy in few months, and force Putin to capitulate. That's what Washington and Brussel talking in beginning of this war. As in other thread shown, this is not what happened.

Like I said each side now already miss calculating opponents ability to withstand. US and Collective West hope Russian economy collapsing in months (not happening yet), while Russian hoping the costs of trade war will force Western constituents to change government in ballots box (which is also so far not happening). Similar thing on the condition in the battle ground. The attrition rate on each sides (whichever the real rate calculation are), still not translate to capitulation of any sides.

Thus the attritions whether in the ground or in economics market still not forcing war closure anytime soon yet.

Perhaps you are misinterpreting what I said. I fully realize that Russia's economy has not completely collapsed yet, and is not likely to collapse in the immediate future. I just pointed out that I believe "the West" can keep going for quite some time. Russia can also keep going for some time even if the Russian economy is hit harder than "the West" -- it's not a democracy and Putin can ignore the suffering of most Russians until it gets so bad that people start a revolution, or there is a coup. Anyway, at this point it's really up to Russia/Ukraine to decide how long they want to attack/defend.

Attrition rates are very high also in Ukraine, this was recently pointed out by the US: Ukraine war: More than 100,000 soldiers 'killed or wounded' on each side - as Russian retreat from Kherson could take weeks

Anyway, "the West" should in my opinion accelerate and increase deliveries to give Ukraine a better hand when negotiations starts. The longer this war drags out the worse for everybody, but in particular for Ukraine. Russia can of course end this war tomorrow, if they want to. Just pull out of Ukraine and the war will end immediately. If Ukraine stops fighting Russia will regroup, resupply and attack again. That's probably the main reason why Ukraine keep going in spite of the high costs.

 

[Morgo]

Would be great to see the Swedes test out their Archer, 155mm Howitzers against the Russians. I've heard people rave about them. I'd love to see them in action. Sending 6-8 of them to Ukraine, to get their feet wet, would be awesome.

I find your blasé attitude, and indeed excitement, towards the potential deaths of fighting men of any nation to be distasteful in the extreme.

This would be the case on any day, but you’re getting excited about the use of artillery. On human beings. On Armistice Day.

However necessary it may be this is not something to be celebrating. It is most definitely not “awesome.”

 

[Morgo]

This's back to 'old' argument as debating in other thread. West is much bigger then Russian economy. Western trade war will bring down Russian economy in few months, and force Putin to capitulate. That's what Washington and Brussel talking in beginning of this war. As in other thread shown, this is not what happened.

I’ve heard this a few times - that the Russian economy is only going to contract by 3% this year - but for the life of me I don’t see how that is possible. Do you have any sources which provide counter evidence to the Russian economy being a shambles?

 

[STURM]

Just pull out of Ukraine and the war will end immediately.

Yes but it's just like saying that if mankind really made it a priority then global warming could improve or that corruption worldwide will cease. On paper the war will stop when or if Russia decides enough is enough but at present that's as likely as Togo launching its own space programme or Bhutan raising an armoured division.

If Ukraine stops fighting Russia will regroup, resupply and attack again. That's probably the main reason why Ukraine keep going in spite of the high costs.

The Ukraine currently has the initiative and it has no choice to but to try to maintain the momentum and keep pressuring the Russians.

I doubt Sweden will hand them out like candy.

I doubt the Ukrainians will ask for it given the long list of different arty systems they already have [all with little or no commonality apart from a common calibre] and that Archer - great gun it is - will not add any value in the overall scheme of things.

 

[Ananda]

that the Russian economy is only going to contract by 3% this year - but for the life of me I don’t see how that is possible.

Russian Federation and the IMF

www.imf.org

IMF project -3.4% while market analyst like Moody's project -5% in April (early in War). Still both projection are far from Western leaders 'expectations' of -9% or even -15% when they launch trade war. Something that market say from beginning will not be as much.

I'm not going to discuss much on this matter as this is already discussed in other thread, which is being prepared for discussion on Russia West confrontation outside Ukraine.

Simply said as I mentioned before. Each sides (especially the political circles) is underestimate opponent capabilities on each sustainment level in this war (both economics and ground war).

I just pointed out that I believe "the West" can keep going for quite some time.

Agree on that. However I also point out that it is too soon to say Russia will be able to be push down by West better resources. Don't get me wrong, Russia will take relative more costs due to both wars. However the costs to the West is also can't be said insignificant (as some Western pundits try to put in the beginning of both wars).

That's why this war ending still not showing.

 

[Vivendi]

I doubt the Ukrainians will ask for it given the long list of different arty systems they already have and that Archer - great gun it is - will not add any value in the overall scheme of things.

They actually asked for Archers, this was published October 26:

Ukraine has also been asking for the Swedish-made Archer artillery system, another 155 mm howitzer gun that is mounted on the frame of a Volvo all-terrain vehicle.

Ukraine Says It Needs More Guns, Shells, and Firepower

“We are requesting new rounds all the time that have longer range and more explosiveness,” said one Ukrainian military official.

foreignpolicy.com

However, we don't know when that particular request was made, perhaps they have changed priorities since then. Let's wait and see.

 

[STURM]

They actually asked for Archers, this was published October 26:

I find this very surprising given the already large number of different systems they have. There was a report somewhere of them expressing gratitude for what they've been given but expressing concerns with being given some kit they never asked for or unsuitable for their needs.

 

[Vivendi]

Agree on that. However I also point out that it is too soon to say Russia will be able to be push down by West better resources. Don't get me wrong, Russia will take relative more costs due to both wars. However the costs to the West is also can't be said insignificant (as some Western pundits try to put in the beginning of both wars).

That's why this war ending still not showing.

I agree. However we should also keep in mind that even if some Western countries should start to reduce their supplies during, say, spring 2023 then:

1. It is highly unlikely that all countries will stop all supplies at the same time. Some will definitely keep supplying longer than others
2. With the supplies already committed, Ukraine will be able to keep up the fight for a long time still. If/when the majority of supplies dry out then of course Ukraine will probably lose the initiate quite soon. But that does not necessarily mean that Russia all of a sudden will be able to occupy the whole of Ukraine.
3. Even with quite small resources, we have seen in e.g., Afghanistan that a determined population can keep a resistance going for many, many years, as long as somebody are willing to provide supplies. I can guarantee you, there are plenty of countries but also various organizations, that will keep Ukraine supplied for a very long time indeed, independent of what e.g. the US decides to do in the future.

Thus, the most likely scenario is that Russia will have to pull out or negotiate an agreement where they get some pieces of Ukraine but most of Ukraine will remain independent. Either Russia will lose in the "near term" (2023-2024), or Ukraine will grind them down long term, perhaps like Taliban did to the US in Afghanistan. In my opinion, the only thing that can change this equation would be China. However so far China has not been willing to supply Russia in this meaningless war of aggression.

 

[Vivendi]

I find this very surprising given the already large number of different systems they have. There was a report somewhere of them expressing gratitude for what they've been given but expressing concerns with being given some kit they never asked for or unsuitable for their needs.

Yes, there has been a number of surprises in this war. And I am sure they will keep coming.

My understanding is that although different systems, the Western 155mm can (for the most part) use the same munitions which probably helps a lot. And compared to other systems (e.g., advanced SAM systems or fighter jets) they are probably relatively easy to be retrained on.

 

[Vivendi]

Russia now claim they have pulled out of Kherson, the only major regional capital they managed to capture since they started their illegal invasion 24. February. Ukraine has not yet commented on the latest claim from Russia but said yesterday they have liberated 41 settlements in the region. Ukraine: Russia says Kherson city pullout 'completed' – DW – 11/11/2022

It has also been reported that The Antonovsky Bridge, the only nearby road crossing from Kherson to the Russian-controlled eastern bank of the Dnieper River, has collapsed: Live news: Russia says withdrawal from Ukraine’s Kherson complete | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Edit: Now several OSINT analysts report that Ukranian forces are entering Kherson: Def Mon on Twitter: "Confirmed AFU presence in Kherson City. Nice geolocation by @EerikMatero" / Twitter
Special Kherson Cat on Twitter: "UKRAINIAN LIBERATORS IN KHERSON https://t.co/yFtZfV6f8U" / Twitter
Special Kherson Cat on Twitter: "It is reported that the advance of Ukrainian forces to the center of Kherson has slowed down as they have to break through the crowds of local residents trying to hug the soldiers" / Twitter

 

[vikingatespam]

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

As you can see just using photo confirmed losses in almost all catagories Russian abandoned and captured equipment more then equals Ukranian losses.
The Russian military industrial complex relies on Western components for even their simple Orlan-10 drone. The Russians have been forced to import Iranian made drones and soon ballistic missiles. The Russians can't even replace their losses in artilery shells and must import them from North Korea. The Russians are deploying the sixty plus year old T-62 because they can manufacture any or very few more modern varients. The West can and so far is grinding down the Russian Army in terms of material losses.
Leftyhunter

As much as I would tend to agree with what you said, the actual RU new tank construction capabilities are unknown. I doubt its very high, but we cannot know for sure.

 

[vikingatespam]

The reality is that the West has provided very, very, very little support to Ukraine in the grand scheme of things. They've sent a handful of howitzers. They have not sent a single Western tank that isn't a variant of a Soviet tank. They haven't sent a single Western fighter jet or attack helicopter. They haven't sent a single Western Cruise missile. They've sent, very, very few air defense systems, of which they have plenty.

The USA hasn't even sent $20 Billion in toys to Ukraine yet. They spend $780 Billion each year on their defense. The West has simply dabbled in sending Ukraine what they need. Some of it is because of training backlogs, and other components of it is because of political will.

Let's not pretend for 5 seconds that the West is doing even close to all it could be doing for Ukraine. And let's also be very honest why. The West is happy to spend insignificant amounts of their GDP, to ensure a protracted conflict that bleeds Russia out and slowly chips away at their modern military assets, while cleaning out what the Soviet Union left them behind.. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to lose a couple hundred thousand soldiers along the way (and it appears they are), the West is happy to bleed the Bear out.

Lets also be honest and point out the West isnt doing great economically. Sure a lot of the gear being sent over is second tier, but it has to be replaced at some point. The West is also floating the UKR economy.

I suspect a lot of western gear is being held out to prevent the RU from crossing some red lines, but at this point there arent too many red lines left to cross. If RU continues to hammer the UKR electrical grid, or starts using iranian ballistic missiles, then I think its time for ATACMS and Tomahawks to be sent. Ramp up the F-16 pilot training.

 

[STURM]

Russia now claim they have pulled out of Kherson, the only major regional capital they managed to capture since they started their illegal invasion 24. February.

Come to think if; quite a few invasions which have occurred are "illegal". Depends on who one asks I suppose. Politically; pulling out of Kherson is embarrassing but from a military viewpoint it's a sound move. The question really is what happens next.

 

[IIO2]

I find your blasé attitude, and indeed excitement, towards the potential deaths of fighting men of any nation to be distasteful in the extreme.

This would be the case on any day, but you’re getting excited about the use of artillery. On human beings. On Armistice Day.

However necessary it may be this is not something to be celebrating. It is most definitely not “awesome.”

Oh, please. The Russians are pounding the Ukrainian energy grid in an attempt to freeze the same civilian population that they've killed tens of thousands of by lobbing cruise missiles, artillery shells, and indiscrimate grad rockets and drones into city centers.

Ruthlessly using high end, Western artillery to fight back and destroy a uniformed, invading army is an obvious response, that any any nation on Earth should and would do without a second thought, if given the chance.

@IIO2 It's time for you to dial the attitude back. There are posters replying to you who have been around here a lot longer than you and are better informed. To use a Mafia term, you haven't made your bones yet and you are still a newbie who appears to think that they may know more than they actually do. Most if not all newbies, myself included, were / are like that when we first arrived on here.

By the way, there are such things called the Rules Of War and the Geneva Conventions, plus international humanitarian law. All military forces are subject to them although certain nations don't agree. War isn't a game of tiddly winks or a computer game. It's very deadly serious where real people are butchered quite nastily. Some come home and may be well in body, but not in mind. Some come home wounded forever in both body and mind. Some never come home to see their loved ones again. Then there are the civilians caught up in the middle of it all, collateral damages as the Americas euphemistically label it. They have no choice in the matter and yet they suffer the most. Maybe you should grow up and think very seriously about what it means to be in a combat zone and what the costs are, not just the cost in treasure, but the human cost which is always far more than the cost in treasure. Treasure is easily replaceable; a human life isn't because once they are dead, they are dead and in war few kills are clean kills. Think about that.

Ngatimozart.

 

[vikingatespam]

I'm extremely curious to know what's actually happening in Kherson right now. Obviously, the rumors are swirling, so I'll wait until they die down and we get some actual info, but it does appear that some large number of Russians are stranded on the right bank of the Dnieper, under horrendous artillery fire from the advancing Ukrainians. As soon as I get some reputable sources regarding the outcome, I'll post them. Surely, Russia's trying to evacuate as much of their equipment across as possible. Meanwhile, Ukraine will be trying to cut off their retreat and force them to surrender, or worse...

www.liveuamap.com - contains pictures of UKR soldiers in newly liberated locations.

 

[STURM]

If RU continues to hammer the UKR electrical grid, or starts using iranian ballistic missiles, then I think its time for ATACMS and Tomahawks to be sent. Ramp up the F-16 pilot training.

What happens if ATACMS and Tomahawks are sent but the war still continues? What next?

 

[Ananda]

determined population can keep a resistance going for many, many years, as long as somebody are willing to provide supplies. I can guarantee you, there are plenty of countries but also

How determine the overall Ukrainian on Southeast Ukraine to fight Russian ? Those four Oblast that Russian take is basically populated more by Ethnic Russian then Ethnic Ukrainian. This is the constituents base of Pro Russian parties that are Zelensky opposition and now being push down by Zelensky in the name of National security.

Western media and Politicians call Russia kidnap millions of Ukrainian, while Pro Russian including some ethics Russian Ukrainian channel call those Ethics Russian take refuge from ethics Ukrainian nationalist that control Kyiv.

You can not put comparison of Vietnam or Afghanistan to US occupation, toward Ukrainian especially South Eastern Ethics Russian Ukrainian to Russian. Many in West call this Russian propaganda, but the divisions between ethnic Russian and ethics Ukrainian are real. The Political stance of those ethics is clear evidence.

Even mainstream Western media, Western academics acknowledge that also, before the war. However those are now tone down and mostly buried under the theme of Russia that create ethnic division in Ukraine.

War can goes on for years, but saying Ukrainian with Western help will be sure to capitulate Russia, well it is still too soon to tell. Even with Ukrainian gain so far. Remember just in July and August, Ukrainian are in retreat on eastern and southern fronts, and many Western media and Politicians are expecting the worse. This war cam still showing turn around or continue bogged down lines. Nothing for sure at this moment yet.

 

[vikingatespam]

Russian routed from Kharkiv oblast, no doubt about that. However both Russian and Luhansk Militia able to hold the line in Luhansk-Kharkiv border also still reality so far. So it is still anyone speculations whether they can hold the line in east bank of Dniper in Kherson oblast when they are moving out from west bank part of Kherson oblast.

Again this war still far from over, as any sides calculations of their opponents rate of attrition so far not as each side expectations.

I dont think either side can force the Dnepr.

The war is far from over. RU Quantity has a quality of its own.

 

[IIO2]

Come to think if; quite a few invasions which have occurred are "illegal". Depends on who one asks I suppose. Politically; pulling out of Kherson is embarrassing but from a military viewpoint it's a sound move. The question really is what happens next.

I agree. It's another in a long line of embarrassments and a waste of human and material resources for the Russians in this war, further proving their woeful training and logistics in their ability to run a major, modern offensive. You've literally got their chief propagandists laugh as Soloyov suggesting that their military leadership should be jailed, shot, or should commit suicide... It was absolutely going be a disaster over the winter had the 20,000'ish Russians stayed on the right bank of the Dnieper over the winter, constantly having their supply stockpiles hammered by HIMARS, while their demoralized forces ran out of food and ammunition in the face of the grinding Ukranian counter attack.

It was the right decision to create a natural barrier and give their army the reprieve needed to re-fit and resupply, before they were massacred.