The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[OPSSG]

Taking a boarder view

Israel reportedly provides satellite imagery to Ukraine, in addition to previous reports of intel sharing and non-lethal aid.

• Israel operates both military and civilian satellites with a wide range of capabilities including high resolution wide area imagery.
• The service is reportedly used to track Russian military positions.

Israel giving intel on Russia's Iranian drones to Ukraine - report

A senior Israeli official reportedly also said that a private Israeli firm was giving Ukraine satellite imagery of Russian troop positions.

www.jpost.com

1. Thanks for this update.

2. No matter which Russian general is in charge (who generally last less than a month in command), the fundamentals don’t change. Putin’s decision to launch over 84+ missiles/bombs against Ukraine, massively accelerated NATO’s desire to ship advanced and modern SAMS to Ukraine. I note that these attacks did not achieve any tactical or strategic goals. None. The war goes on and Ukraine has some damage to clean up, but beyond that, it was a hollow display that looked more like weakness. A monumental Putin F- at strategy.

3. Putin is on his 9th commander — I am certain the tide of war has turned against Putin and the Ukrainians are doing the job of stopping an aggressor. Even if President Zelenskyy was willingness to negotiate (and he is not), there is no one on the Russian side, to negotiate with. The only person who can talk is Putin, but he can’t be trusted. Putin lies easily and has reneged on many of his own promises before. He signed a guarantee of Ukrainian borders in 2003, and promised not to invade many times. After annexing Crimea, he lied that there were no Russian troops there, only to say differently later. Russian decisions on attempted annexation must be reversed; Russia must withdraw its forces from all of Ukraine’s territory.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580296508494458880

4. Meanwhile, 143 UN member states supported the 12 Oct 2022 UNGA resolution "Territorial integrity of Ukraine: Defending Principles of UN Charter”. The statement by member states is clear — Crimea, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk & Zapporizhzhia are part of Ukraine.

 

[vikingatespam]

Perhaps the T-62s are for export? all newer models will likely be taken up for replenishment of domestic stocks, so these may be the only product they may have to offer?

I thought of that, but who in this time would buy a T-62 ? And if it for export, that detracts from RU efforts to shape up their tank force.

 

[Beam]

I thought of that, but who in this time would buy a T-62 ? And if it for export, that detracts from RU efforts to shape up their tank force.

It may be "the only game in town" since not only Russia but also Western nations are repleneshing war stocks for themselves.

 

[STURM]

The Shaheds arent fast and have no countermeasures, does the interceptor jet have to fly that close to get a hit

Depends if the pilot has spotted it in time he can engage it with the cannon or a missile from a safe distance.

Remember the 2008 video of a Russian Fulcrum engaging a Georgian UAS with a missile?

Iknow its very small, but R-27s should be capable of downing them from a safe enough distance no?

We have no idea which version of the R-27 was used but can it detect the RCS or the heat signature of something as small as a Shahed? For that matter can the Fulcrum's IRST detect an object that small based on it heat emissions?

 

[vonnoobie]

Maybe 1-2 months? Something to that extent. The front line there is mostly static. Russia appears to be taking 1 village/hamelt per week or so. With easily a dozen of them around this not too large town, it could take 3 months to take, if it falls at all. I know slow and steady wins the race, but good god.

According to RU MOD the battle for Bakhmut started on the 1st of August so it is now going on 75 days today and have managed to whopping advance of 7 - 10km? area depending... Starting to think WWI vets will have to give them a lesson on advancing faster.... Current advance assuming 10km distance gives average advance rate of 5.5m an hour

 

[STURM]

There's a solid chance that the T-14 is being prepared for combat action. And this makes sense. At this point several dozen prototypes have been produced, the type has been undergoing state trials for a while. Combat testing is valuable in principle.

The problem is if it lacks a APS it's going to be as vulnerable as any other tank and the chances are of it meeting Ukrainian armour is slim. I can't see what value they'd gain from deploying a prototype at this stage.

 

[Feanor]

The problem is if it lacks a APS it's going to be as vulnerable as any other tank and the chances are of it meeting Ukrainian armour is slim. I can't see what value they'd gain from deploying a prototype at this stage.

It doesn't lack an APS. It carries the Afghanit. What they gain is a number of modern tanks on the front lines. They're deploying vintage T-62Ms currently.

According to RU MOD the battle for Bakhmut started on the 1st of August so it is now going on 75 days today and have managed to whopping advance of 7 - 10km? area depending... Starting to think WWI vets will have to give them a lesson on advancing faster.... Current advance assuming 10km distance gives average advance rate of 5.5m an hour

Sounds about right. Of course let's remember, forces that were likely meant for a continued push there were instead reallocated to try and mitigate the consequences of Ukrainian attacks. We know reserves were deployed to Kherson and Oskol fronts. It seems Wagner fighters are the only reason Russia is advancing there at all.

 

[STURM]

What they gain is a number of modern tanks on the front lines. They're deploying vintage T-62Ms currently.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the main value in MBTs have been so far has been in deploying firepower in support of infantry units and not so much against other MBTs. Based on this wouldn't factors such as infantry and other kinds of support be the determining factors in how well a particular MBTs fares rather than the type of MBT deployed? Would deploying a few prototype T-14s make any difference; unless it was expected to meet Ukrainian MBTs and the intent was to test the T-14s FCS and other things. Also, from a propaganda/PR perspective wouldn't it be uncomfortable if any T-14s were lost?

 

[Feanor]

Update Oct1st-3rd

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa-Krivoy Rog.

Russian Shahed-136 strikes, Krivoy Rog.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️БПЛА «Герань-2»/«Shahed-136» поразил цель в районе Кривого Рога t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A Ukrainian tank column in Kherson, led by a tank with mine trawl, gets hit.

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I think this is that same column after getting hit.

Военный Осведомитель

Сваленная в кучу брошенная техника украинской армии под Давыдовым Бродом Херсонской области. @ZOV_SILA_RF

t.me

A Ukrainian column near Davydov Brod, allegedly destroyed.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженная колонна ВСУ под Давыдовым Бродом Днем ВСУ предприняли очередную попытку наступления на Давыдов Брод. На этот раз они атаковали не только со стороны Белогорки, но и наведенной переправы в Белой Криннице. Всего на оборонительные порядки наступало до 50 единиц как...

t.me

Ukrainian vehicles near Kherson knocked out/destroyed. We have a Kipri MRAP, a M-113, a BMP-1, a T-64BV with it's turret gone, a T-72M1 stuck (knocked out?), I think a VAB, and an armored car (maybe Varta?).

Центр Рубеж

Уничтоженная техника ВСУ на Херсонском направлении. Фото: https://t.me/ZOV_SILA_RF/1638

t.me

Ukrainian CASEVAC near Kherson.

Dambiev

Эвакуация тяжелораненных ВСУшников на Херсонском направлении.

t.me

Portuguese M113A2s have shown up in Kherson region.

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VABs have shown up in Kherson area.

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Gepard spotted in Odessa.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strikes landing in Zaporozhye.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ По Запорожью сегодня утром были нанесены удары Всего четыре взрыва. Наиболее громко прилёты были слышны на Правом берегу и в районе Бородинского микрорайона. Над несколькими районами города были видны столбы дыма. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Oskol Front.

A destroyed Humvee near Izyum, from the earlier fighting.

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The mayor of Krasniy Liman who was in the city during all the fighting apparently escaped.

Украина.ру

Мэр Красного Лимана все эти тяжёлые недели оставался в городе, ежедневно сообщая об обстановке вокруг него. Он вышел. Вот его обращение.

t.me

Russian BARS-13 set up near Kremennaya. Note they apparently have BTR-82As and MT-LBs with ZU-23-2s. We also see a Giatsint-B firing, but it's unlikely to belong to the same unit.

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I think this is that same Giatsint-B as above.

Kotsnews

Артиллерия наша старается, бьет по хохлам, поймавшим кураж, наносит потери. @sashakots

t.me

LDNR Front.

Shelling of Donetsk continues.

Война Глазами Журналиста

18+ Последствия обстрела Макеевки. 2 погибших 1 раненный

t.me

Sparta btln, DNR forces, dropping grenades from a quadcopter on Opytnoe. I believe this is the Opytnoe by Donetsk, not the one by Artemovsk/Bakhmut. They apparently have thermals on the copters, we have day and night ops.

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Russian Giatsint fires towards Avdeevka.

РИА Новости

Артиллеристы 1-й Славянской бригады продолжают поражать позиции врага на Авдеевском направлении. В распоряжении РИА Новости появилось видео взаимодействия БПЛА и 152-мм САУ «Гиацинт».

t.me

LNR rocket-artillery near Artemovsk/Bakhmut and Soledar.

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Russian Wagner fighters near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

А

You can view and join @ok_spn right away.

t.me

Apparently Prigozhin's son is there.

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DNR forces have received Kornets. As Russia integrates the LDNR into their own forces, this will become more common.

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Russian mobilized personnel training in Donetsk region at a DNR training ground.

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Russia.

A Russian aircraft had an accident at Bel'bek. It reported rolled past the landing strip. The heavy smoke suggests a destroyed aircraft.

Раньше всех. Ну почти.

❗️Внештатная ситуация на аэродроме Бельбек, сообщает губернатор Севастополя. «По информации спасателей при посадке самолет выкатился за пределы взлетно-посадочной полосы и загорелся. Сейчас на месте работают пожарные расчёты. Прошу сохранять спокойствие», заявил Михаил Развожаев. Очевидцы...

t.me

МИГ России

Хватит разгонять дичь про обстрел аэропорта Бельбек в Крыму! На видео четко видно, как самолет выкатился за полосу и взорвался. Ваш @Mig41

t.me

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Golovchino village, Belgorod region, Russia, got hit. Reportedly one dead civilian.

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Artillery exchanges can be heard in Shebekino, near the Ukrainian border.

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More trains, we have an echelon of Russian T-72 Urals. Clearly Russia is not out of T-72s. We have a train full of trucks heading towards Georgia, presumably for locally mobilized personnel, a Buk-M2 unit (possibly recently upgraded), a bunch of arctic Tor-M2s (possibly a shortage of modern SHORAD), a Russian engineering unit in Crimea, T-80BVs and T-62Ms heading towards Kherson, S-400s heading to Ukraine, Iskanders heading towards Kherson area, a full btln of T-72B3s heading towards Ukraine, a vintage Buk unit in Samara, S-400 unit in Novorossiysk, S-300V in Krasnodar, a train with some damage BTR-82As, Tigrs, and a bunch of GAZ-66s, BTR-60 based vehicles (artillery recon I think?), Kamaz, Ural, and MAZ trucks, and last but not least a train with BPM-97 Vystrel armored cars with the Spitza 30mm autocannon module.

Railways Echelon With Tanks T-80BV And T-62 Towards To The Ukraine-Kherson Direction.
RU Railways Echelon With #s400 Anti-Aircraft Systems Spotted In Stage Revda - Sieves
RU Railways Echelon With 17 Iskander-M Missile System A Range 500 Km Towards To Kherson Direction.
Railways Echelon With 30 Tanks Transfer To The Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia And Kherson Line
RU Railways Echelon With Launcher Antiaircraft Buk-M3 In Samara Railway Station
RU S-400 Military Equipment From The Train Window || Novorossiysk St. Petersburg
RU S-300V Anti-Aircraft Systems Spotted In Station Krasnodar-1
RU Railways Echelon With The “V” Sign || To The Southern

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A damage Pantsyr undergoing repairs in Crimea. Note the AESA, this is the S2 variant.

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Russia's 96th National Guard Rgt from Chechnya is heading to Ukraine. Likely not the whole unit.

Рядовой на проводе

✔️ В зону СВО отправились чеченские бойцы 96 полка оперативного назначения СКО ВНГ РФ Как отметил Рамзан Кадыров, подразделение представляют исключительно опытные воины, которые участвовали в боестолкновениях с террористами и в спецоперациях, а также неоднократно доказывали верность присяге...

t.me

More volunteers leaving Grozniy to Ukraine. Most of the current wave of volunteers signed up before the mobilization and are now completing training to go to war. It will be interesting to see if Russia can keep the volunteers flowing.

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Russian mobilized personnel training on T-90Ms.

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Russian mobilized personnel from Stavropol'ye heading to a local VDV unit for training.

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Assorted mobilization efforts.

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Военкор реервист

Казаки Ставрополья выдвигаются в зону СВО. Прислать новость/фото/видео | Сообщить сведения о противнике

t.me

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Moscow calling

Уровень организации при проведении частичной мобилизации в РФ примерно соответствует 15-16 веку. Потому что позднее уже появились ткацкие мануфактуры, снабжавшие армию парусиной и сукном в количестве, достаточном для изготовления палаток. Что мешает снабдить мобилизованных хотя бы армейскими...

t.me

In Khabarovsk region one of Russia's military commissariat officers was removed.

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Misc.

A Ukrainian Krab howitzer barrel exploded. Cause is unclear but might be excessive wear. We've had reports of Ukraine using their western equipment heavier then intended.

Милитарист

Разрыв ствола у польской 155-мм самоходной гаубицы Krab из числа переданных ВСУ

t.me

Russian helo-launched ATGM taking out an MBT.

Fighterbomber

Что там по нашей авиации? Авиация работает. Несмотря на то, что сейчас погода не даёт работать в полную силу, а часто вообще не даёт работать, несмотря на то, что несколько последних дней авиация несёт серьёзные потери, авиация работает. Мне непонятна ситуация по Дудчанам, которые вроде как...

t.me

Russian Iskander launches, location and context unclear.

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Apparently Ukrainian artillery, allegedly M777s, getting hit near Preobrazhenka village. Unclear if it's the one in Kherson region or Zaporozhye.

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Russian T-90M with Nakidka. Location and context unclear.

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Russian T-90M column, all with roofs and Nakidka. Location and context unclear.

"Крышевание"

Новые Т-90М тоже получили крыши

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Anna Malyar, a deputy of Ukraine's Minister of Defense reports that Ukraine has managed to get 808 Ukrainian POWs back from Russia in total, as part of 24 exchanges.

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NATO/EU.

Ukraine has received new M30A1 rockets for the HIMARs.

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More footage of Ukrainian troops training in the UK.

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Norway and Germany will reportedly pay for the Czechs to build 16 Zuzana-2 howitzers for Ukraine.

Дания, Норвегия и Германия профинансируют изготовление для Украины гаубиц Zuzana 2

gurkhan.blogspot.com

France is reportedly delivering 6-12 Caesar howitzers on the Tatra chassis.

Франция планирует передать Украине САУ CAESAR на шасси Tatra T815 из числа заказанных Данией.

gurkhan.blogspot.com

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The Czech embassy in Ukraine has launched a crowdfunding campaign to buy tanks for Ukraine.

Посольство Украины в Чехии запустило краудфандинговую кампанию для покупки танка Т-72 Scarab

gurkhan.blogspot.com

 

[Feanor]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the main value in MBTs have been so far has been in deploying firepower in support of infantry units and not so much against other MBTs. Based on this wouldn't factors such as infantry and other kinds of support be the determining factors in how well a particular MBTs fares rather than the type of MBT deployed? Would deploying a few prototype T-14s make any difference; unless it was expected to meet Ukrainian MBTs and the intent was to test the T-14s FCS and other things. Also, from a propaganda/PR perspective wouldn't it be uncomfortable if any T-14s were lost?

It's uncomfortable to lose wars too. If you're pulling T-62Ms from storage and you have combat-ready T-14s even if they're technically not in serial production, it makes sense to use them. We've seen MBT-on-MBT combat, but the reality is that Russia is short on modern MBTs. Here are some modern MBTs. Testing the FCS and the new gun on it are both good ideas. If they show decent performance on the front line they can rush acceptance into service and run the production line for T-14s at UVZ.

 

[sdin]

According to RU MOD the battle for Bakhmut started on the 1st of August so it is now going on 75 days today and have managed to whopping advance of 7 - 10km? area depending... Starting to think WWI vets will have to give them a lesson on advancing faster.... Current advance assuming 10km distance gives average advance rate of 5.5m an hour

Depends on which side you are looking and propaganda? Small advance yet they inflicted heavy casualties on the Ukrainians without putting Russian lives at danger. Russia is not on a timed schedule and no reason to rush. The longer the war, more damaging to Ukraine and less support from the western support with draining military supplies and funds.

As we can noticed in previous Ukraine advance it came with heavy casualties and cost thousands of lives.

 

[vonnoobie]

Depends on which side you are looking and propaganda? Small advance yet they inflicted heavy casualties on the Ukrainians without putting Russian lives at danger. Russia is not on a timed schedule and no reason to rush. The longer the war, more damaging to Ukraine and less support from the western support with draining military supplies and funds.

As we can noticed in previous Ukraine advance it came with heavy casualties and cost thousands of lives.

What propaganda? All I have stated is the actual distance covered and the time frame it was covered it, Hell it is the Russians that stated them sselves when this particular battle started no one else...

I assume you can back your claims up in regards to casualties because I have yet to see any confirmed numbers of casualties from either side that can be verified so you must have the greatest sources of us all to know for a fact that Ukraine has suffered more casualties from defensive positions that they have spent years preparing while Russia attacking such positions got off lightly....

The longer the war drags on less support.... That has yet to be the case and so far the longer the war has gone on the more desperate RU MOD appears to have become which has directly lead to Western support increasing rather then decreasing. Early on it was ATGM's and minor systems, then became artillery, then became missile launchers and now they are getting western ADS. However what has occured is the ability of Russia to maintain this war seems to be hit and miss, precision weapons are low, they are now appearing to field T-62's, the quality of their artillery is going down as they are using stock well past it's use by date, the main professional force of its army is a shadow of it's former self and the 'partial mobilization' seems to be a mix of getting decent training to be given a gun and dumped on the front line.

Your bias is extremely clear, I would suggest actually backing it up with some sources to justify your claims because so far they don't stack up at all.

 

[ngatimozart]

Depends on which side you are looking and propaganda? Small advance yet they inflicted heavy casualties on the Ukrainians without putting Russian lives at danger. Russia is not on a timed schedule and no reason to rush. The longer the war, more damaging to Ukraine and less support from the western support with draining military supplies and funds.

As we can noticed in previous Ukraine advance it came with heavy casualties and cost thousands of lives.

It's time that you started to provide some valid reliable evidence to substantiate your claims. Russian or Ukrainian based claims are not acceptable.

 

[vonnoobie]

It's uncomfortable to lose wars too. If you're pulling T-62Ms from storage and you have combat-ready T-14s even if they're technically not in serial production, it makes sense to use them. We've seen MBT-on-MBT combat, but the reality is that Russia is short on modern MBTs. Here are some modern MBTs. Testing the FCS and the new gun on it are both good ideas. If they show decent performance on the front line they can rush acceptance into service and run the production line for T-14s at UVZ.

From an impartial point of view in Russia's situation at present you should be using anything you have even if their are risks involved. Worst case being Ukraine captures it and hands it straight off to NATO in a reverse lend lease. Which is why I think they are activating T-62's, Rather then just grabbing the best quality T-80's, T-72's they are just grabbing the best ones of any asset they have just to make up the numbers, what ever the age of it if it can drive and shoot they taking it.

 

[wsb05]

That can't be it. Russia produces the T-90 domestically. They can restart T-72B production if they wanted it and that's much harder then overhauling some T-72As and putting them back into service. Russia also had T-72AVs in service in Tadjikistan until 2021, and in the 90th TD during this war. This is a tiny quantity (~300-400 total) but we know some were in service. We know thousands were produced. Maybe Russia can't return thousands to service, but some quantity should be very doable. Russia still has T-72Bs in storage, and has pulled some during this war. And both the quantities and timelines are very strange. Pulling a few T-62Ms in a hurry to rush to the front line for irregulars and LDNR reservists? Sure, makes sense. Category 1 storage easy to pull and the war was going badly. But hundreds over the course of years with major upgrades? It's very strange.



800 of them? A tank btln in every town of over 50k people? Why?

It could primarily be because they have large stockpiles of this particular ammo. Also high end tanks for tank to tank battles are not needed in large numbers.

 

[relic88]

Regarding the Iranian drones which at a cursory glance seem to be an issue for Ukraine, would it be realistic to 1) Provide C RAM systems for major population centers, and 2) be an effective counter to these slow moving drones? Is it overkill?

EDIT: a YT video source claims a single C RAM engagement is 30 - 60k USD.

 

[STURM]

Any UASs or loitering munitions would be a problem for anyone who doesn't have the right types of systems in place. Would the U.S. army fare better at present if faced with a sustained attack by small UASs and loitering munitions? Doubt it; at least until the Stryker AD variant is delivered in numbers.

 

[relic88]

Any UASs or loitering munitions would be a problem for anyone who doesn't have the right types of systems in place. Would the U.S. army fare better at present if faced with a sustained attack by small UASs and loitering munitions? Doubt it; at least until the Stryker AD variant is delivered in numbers.

Had to look that up (Stryker AD), yes that seems like a fit.

 

[sdin]

It's time that you started to provide some valid reliable evidence to substantiate your claims. Russian or Ukrainian based claims are not acceptable.

It was generally acknowledged that the Russias practiced war of attrition and gaining ground little by little to avoid heavy casualties, thus using artilleries air strikes to neutralised enemy locations. Meanwhile, in recent UA advanced in Kharkiv and Lyman, use of numerical number of troops and armoured vehicles were obvious and witness by many videos. The UA used more than 3-1 ratio in above advance/attack. I eliminate the Kharkiv front as there were no battle.
You are asking reliability? Western support media or China? Reports are either by Russian or Ukrainian side, so read both side with pain of salt at digest both.
Following is Zalensky admission of. casualties (prior to UA counter offensive)

From Austrian strategist , huge losses of UA forces in many bridgeheads .

 

[relic88]

I wonder though if at some point years from now an "interceptor" counter UAS could be see action. I saw a video earlier today of a UAV attacking another UAV (and failing).