The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Arji · Jul 22, 2022

Is there anything that could stop the Russian from escalating the status into an actual war? Internationally, I think every country already saw this as a war between states. It's not like their image could get any lower at this point. So any opposition (if any) must come from within. If Putin's grip on authority is as absolute as most news made it out to be, what's stopping him from just escalating from Special Operation to just plain old war? Heck, he could make some hogwash reason as to why the survival of Russia hinges on this war or something along that line.

swerve · Jul 22, 2022

It would be a complete about-turn. He, Lavrov et al have all been talking as if Russia is winning, with few losses, & there's no need to mobilise fully. They act in public as if Russia can bully NATO, making threats. Suddenly saying "The Motherland is in danger of destruction! We must all commit ourselves to the struggle for survival!" would be an admission of both failure & weakness. & of having lied up to that point. They could be afraid of the domestic reaction.

Ananda · Jul 22, 2022

Depends on how Moscow going to package it domestically, I suspect. Moscow already told their domestics (they don't care what collective west thingking at this stage), that this Special Operation in Ukraine is not a 'war' as it is still basically "limited" military operation.

However lately they already put how West using Ukraine as proxy war. Basically they said (which is have a base on this), by their own, Ukraine resources already exhausted. Ukraine now fight only with Western support and supplies. So Russia has no choices but to answer on Western challange on the security of "motherland". This also give credit for their argument that Ukraine is giving 'genuine' threats to Russia. Again this is what they sell to domestics and Pro Russian nations publics. They don't care what Collective West publics thinks.

They've talk on HIMARS with longer range missile (spread out this much on Pro Russian online sites), I suspect prepare the domestics for Russian need to take more Ukraine land to give buffer toward 'Western' threats in Ukrainian uniform.

Thus more Western supplies going to Ukraine, can be use for Moscow, to prepare their domestics for more escallations, even full war operation in Ukraine.

vikingatespam · Jul 22, 2022

ngatimozart said:
I would treat this Perun's material with a significant degree of caution, and is definitely not a source that is acceptable here because the validity of it is suspect and its claims cannot be verified.

In a sea of overtly opinionated and/or suspect material, his approach and methodology are reasonable and (IMHO) free of obvious biases. In the case of the ammo expenditures, he does use RU and US "official" source material to come to a conclusion, albeit one with a large +/-

I did make a mistake in my earlier post....the video on RU tank reserves is by Covert Cabal, which IIRC in one of the comments has the actual geographic locations noted.

Karl Franz · Jul 22, 2022

I think at this point we can conclude that Russia is in for a long haul, unless something dramatically changes in one of the spheres of this conflict. I believe that there are three distinct spheres of competition between Russia and West regarding Ukrainian conflict.

Military sphere (inconclusive)
Although early failures of the Russian army surprised many of us, they have consolidated and achieved certain victories. They continue to hold the initiative over most of the front and the ability to strike deep within Ukraine with impunity. On the other hand they have failed to destroy the Ukrainian army or its willingness to fight and as such have not achieved their primary objective.

Diplomatic sphere (inconclusive, leaning Russia)
As with the first sphere, here we also have a surprise. The West has failed to diplomatically isolate Russia (not for the lack of trying). Most countries globally have not joined sanctions or stopped their trade and bilateral relations with Russians. There have been notable abstentions from sanctions such as Turkey (NATO member) and unwillingness from the rest of the global community to follow West's lead. However even without the rest of the global community this has still caused major disruptions to Russia's diplomacy such as Lavrov's inability to reach Belgrade due to lack of available route.

Economic sphere (advantage Russia)
This one is the most surprising of all (at least for me). Russia's uncanny ability to counter Western sanctions and preserve macroeconomic stability has been a surprise that can have bigger consequences than their unexpected underwhelming performance on the battlefield. Russian inflation is 15% and falling while some EU members have more than 20%, US inflation stands at 9.1% with tendency to grow further. It would not surprise me if Russia and US inflation were in a ballpark which would be a major success for the Russians. GDP contraction is another indicator of Russia's better than expected performance. At the beginning of the war and introduction of sanctions it was forecast between 30%-50%, then it was revised to 15%, then again around 8%, and now it's at 3.5% contraction which would be truly remarkable.

All of the spheres are closely interlocked and have great effect on each other, and as such can alleviate pressure from each other. Russia's resilient economy plus its ability to retain trade and bilateral ties with majority of international community allows it to continue their military effort (however slow it is). Evidence for a longer war can also be seen in reduction of Russian forces in a conflict zone, Russian guard has mostly left even though they were a significant part of the invasion force.

In conclusion I believe we are going to see a continuation of hostilities from medium to long-term period with attrition in military but also in two other spheres as a major deciding factor in how long this conflict lasts.

Musashi_kenshin · Jul 22, 2022

Ukraine and Russia sign UN-backed deal to restart grain exports

Shipping of millions of tonnes from blockaded Black Sea ports could avert global food crisis

www.theguardian.com

Good news for Ukraine and hungry countries around the world. It appears that Russia will not have a right to inspect grain ships at port or whilst in transit. Assuming Moscow hasn't signed this in bad faith, perhaps they decided that refusing to allow Ukrainian grain shipments would lead to further international pressure (hungry, rioting citizens have a habit of overthrowing governments).

Ananda · Jul 22, 2022

Russia will not have rights to inspect the grain out from Ukraine control ports, but they are part of coalition that inspect the grain ships that coming. This is to make sure the ship is not bringing any equipment that can be use for Ukraine war effort.

This is not much different then the draft being circulated before (mostly from Turkish forums). Basically Turkiye is the third parties that being used by both Ukraine and Russia to safe guard Ukraine agricultural products out, and guarantee no war equipment coming in.

This deal shown Sultan Erdo to the world and especially to Collective West, Turkiye is the only party that have trust from both waring parties. Thus any deals with Russian will need Turkiye intermediaries. More points for Sultan Erdo.

STURM · Jul 22, 2022

He has other reasons too. Turkey relies on Russian tourists; it shares the Black Sea with Russia and it's involved in Syria where Russia is a player. Turkey also has dealings with Iran and Russia has some level of influence with Iran. Like others Turkey is very concerned but it has to walk a thin line. It's also telling that Turkey continues to supply the Ukraine whilst also being chummy with Russia.

Feanor · Jul 22, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

It appears a Russian Su-35S went down in Kherson region. Pilot ejected.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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