The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[John Fedup]

Nonetheless the Ukrainian leadership has indicated its willingness to make some concessions [after a referendum and with firm guarantees which would involved external parties] and we can only hope that it leads to an end to hostilities and people dying.

Whether anyone will be held accountable of course remains to seen.

This BBC video contains gruesome images.

Do we know it was a Russian military which made such a major blunder and assumption or a political leadership which made that blunder and assumption and forced the Russian military to go to war in a certain way?

I suspect the latter but but perhaps military leadership really didn’t help by not aggressively pointing out the bad assumptions. Probably dangerous for them to point out the military’s crappy logistics and maintenance issues, clearly their responsibility not the politicos.

 

[STURM]

No idea John. My view is that had the military gone in with that expectation.that they would face very determined and protracted resistance; they would have planned accordingly. We know that some units were only told they were going in 24 hours prior; that units were told to expect brief resistance; that they were also told that they would be welcomed by a grateful population and that Russia did not; to the surprise of many; deploy some of the capabilities they have. The political leadership also apparently limited the number of targets to be hit and the scope to avoid antagonisng the population.

It's my humble opinion that what we've seen so far is not an actual indicator of actual Russian military capability.

 

[Feanor]

To add a bit further on indigenous rights under Russian law the Tartars are not so recognised as indigenous

The Indigenous World 2021: Russian Federation - IWGIA - International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs

Indigenous Peoples are not recognised by Russian legislation as such; however, Art. 67 of the current constitution guarantees the rights of “Indigenous Minority Peoples”, (literally: “Indigenous small-numbered peoples”). The 1999 Federal Law “On Guarantees of the Rights of the Indigenous...

www.iwgia.org

Russia doesn't generally separate populations into indigenous and non-indigenous. The link you provide shows that the only recognition they can tease out of existing Russian law refers to the protection of ethnic groups that are extremely few in number and therefore at risk of disappearing completely. This doesn't change the fact that under Russia the Tatars have an autonomous region, and under Ukraine the government is unitary and nobody is allowed to have autonomy. I don't want to go further down this rabbit hole here but if you'd like to continue a discussion of comparative political arrangements for ethnic minorities between Russia and Ukraine, we can do this either via PM or in the off-topic forum.

 

[John Fedup]

No idea John. My view is that had the military gone in with that expectation.that they would face very determined and protracted resistance; they would have planned accordingly. We know that some units were only told they were going in 24 hours prior; that units were told to expect brief resistance; that they were also told that they would be welcomed by a grateful population and that Russia did not; to the surprise of many; deploy some of the capabilities they have. The political leadership also apparently limited the number of targets to be hit and the scope to avoid antagonisng the population.

It's my humble opinion that what we've seen so far is not an actual indicator of actual Russian military capability.

Perhaps mention of the intelligence services performance is warranted. Possibly totally crap effort or they also didn’t want to rock Putin’s boat either.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510648066403143683

This is getting interesting. Russian give counter claim. Well does not matter anyway. The Western mainstream media will take anything from Ukranian side as gold information anyway.

 

[GermanHerman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510648066403143683

This is getting interesting. Russian give counter claim. Well does not matter anyway. The Western mainstream media will take anything from Ukranian side as gold information anyway.

Of cause russia has to deny this, we cant rely on any official statements of the accused / involved parties.

We need an independent and international investigation into this, the sooner the better.

It was done during WW2 at Katyn, it can easily be done again.

The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth

'The Katyn Massacre’ is a symbolic term. It refers to a series of mass murders of Poles imprisoned in special camps of Kozelsk, Starobilsk, and Ostashkov, and in prisons located in the so-called Western Ukraine and Western Belarus (Eastern Borderlands of the Second Polish Republic that were...

warsawinstitute.org

Experts can be brought in in mere hours by airplane. No one has any ground to deny them access to this.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

This isn't really true. Azov is a piece of a right wing resurgence across Europe, especially Eastern Europe. Russian actions in '14 gave Azov extra utility within Ukrainian domestic politics. It highlighted the decrepitude of state institutions in Ukraine, especially force-wielding ones, and highlighted that there are significant segments of the population in areas of Ukraine that would either welcome or at least accept a Russian takeover with minimal fuss. This led Ukrainian authorities to lean on ultra-nationalism and conduct a policy of forced assimilation domestically, a policy that is of course quite ugly and would be unacceptable in a western democracy, lending credibility to Russia's narrative about Ukrainian nationalism. This is compounded by the rise of many nationalist movements across the former USSR that often define their identity at least in part by denying their connection to Russia. I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole, so I'll sum it up thusly; Azov specifically was a response to the events of '14 but movements like Azov including S14 would have existed (and did in fact exist) regardless. Svoboda, Right Sector, S14, all predate the events of '14, and are part of a bigger pattern.

I agree with 99% of this and well done and well written as usual. But I think the cases of Croatia and Ukraine share many similarities, and while there are important differences between the two, the movements in these two countries differ quite a bit from the movements that arose in other parts of the former USSR and far more troublesome. I started a post about about this some while back, but abandoned it. If I can find it, I will go ahead and post it to explain myself.

I wouldn't be too sure on either count. Azov was effectively split up for the current war, half of it went to Kharkov. You'll note the interesting pattern. In each case they're sent to a large city that could potentially accept a Russian occupation with minimal resistance from the locals. In each case they can turn an easy takeover into a bloody urban battle that would drive out the locals, cause massive casualties, destroy the city, and prevent the kind of picture that the Russian and rebel moves in '14 created. It's a vile and dirty strategy but an effective one.

Astute analysis. Thank you. I can't help but feel a bit creeped out by Azov in Kharkov, though. That's where the Soviets held a version of the Nuremburg trials in 1943 (so far as I know, the first such trials of WWII, but I am no scholar or expert on WWII). "History doesn't repeat itself, but often rhymes."

As for Russian responsibility, I suspect that if the current allegations surrounding mass murders in Bucha turn out to be correct, the international outrage will take a heavy toll on Russia and make it harder then ever for Russia to find its way out of the current corner Putin painted it into. Even if they turn out to be false, a significant portion of the damage is already done.

True. The thing is, Putin in a corner could be a very dangerous animal. With nukes, yet.

He could face some sort of consequence from an internal coup d'etat. The real issue is what happens post Putin. Will the West insist on Russia returning Crimea even against the will of the local population? Will Ukraine get to reabsorb the LDNR area with whatever forced assimilation/terror tactics they choose to employ? For all the allegations, Putin isn't really a Russian nationalist. Though he does try to use nationalist feelings to further his goals. He also tries to use Soviet-nostalgia and even downright socialist/communist movements. If he falls and the west pushes hard, a real nationalist could come to power.

Didn't Crimea try to have a referendum in an attempt to stay in the Russian Federation just prior to Ukraine declaring independence? It seems some while later the people of Crimea polled in favor of independence, though. I'll try to look it up. The best thing for the people might be a new referendum under the auspices of the UN along with OSCE and IFES observers and support. The UN is bad at lots of things, but they usually do elections okay. But the US would never stand for it, as we cannot allow Putin to win, or "profit from his bad behavior" in the event the vote went for joining Russia.

As for the LDNR, there seems to be no good solution that could actually come true in the long run. At least I can think of none, unless a Minsk III would actually be implemented with both the Americans and Germans solidly behind it (doubtful, at least on the American front, and would the Russians trust in it?). This might require an international presence more robust than the old OSCE mission, though, and would need to stay in place for years in some form.

The people there may have to flee into Russia at some point, and go the way of the Krajina Serbs of Croatia. You know this, but for those here who speak no Slavic languages: Ukraine (Ukraina, pronounced Oo-krah-ee-na, means "at the borderlands" or "at the frontier") -- same for the Krajina in Croatia (minus the "at"). I've can't help thinking lately that centuries-old frontiers between empires (which can also be serious cultural fault lines and a minefield of resentments) are not exactly a healthy place to live, especially in a multi-ethnic country that has not been independent for centuries and until quite recently. My heart breaks for *all* the ordinary people all over Ukraine.

Good point about what might come after Putin. Far worse is waiting in the wings. We should be careful what we wish for. Short term, Putin in a corner is extremely dangerous, while long term whoever replaces him could well be more dangerous than a Putin somehow granted a way out. With Putin's approval rating at 83% right now (if true), what do you think are the chances of a coup? It seems doubtful to me, at the moment, but I am hardly the expert on Russia you and others here are. If this drags on too long, though... Interview with Sergey Karaganov:

“Russia cannot afford to lose, so we need a kind of a victory”: Sergey Karaganov on what Putin wants

A former adviser to the Kremlin explains how Russia views the war in Ukraine, fears over Nato and China, and the fate of liberalism.

www.newstatesman.com

Of course one must remember who and where he is, and therefore what he must say, but still ... interesting. Kind of surreal, actually, in some ways.

While I agree it's useless to pursue a long string of "ifs" and "if onlys" leading up to this fiasco, all I know is that if all sides don't do a sober "lessons learned" assessment (similar to what the West did after WWII, using lessons learned from WWI settlement), the problem of Ukraine cannot be humanely and satisfactorily or permanently settled. I regret I am not optimistic this will be done.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Around Kiev.

Abandoned Russian military vehicles that were being used as an improvised barricade on the Kiev-Zhitomyr road.

Open Ukraine| Открытая Украина

Киевская область, Житомирская трасса покинутая антифашистами @OpenUkraine

t.me

Russian snipers near Kiev.

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vk.com

Russian command hands out awards near Kiev.

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vk.com

Pole-taping of a civilian in Kiev. He was allegedly looting a store.

ZERGULIO

Киев. Паляниця или мародер. В общем автомата у мужика не было, а у нацистов есть.

t.me

The North.

Ukrainian tank hit near Chernigov.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Уничтожение украинского танка под Черниговом: Первое попадание — поджог. Второе попадание — детонация боекомплекта и полное уничтожение. В пригороде Чернигова российская САУ "Мста-С" 2С19 ликвидировала танк ВСУ. Взрыв был эпичным. Конец марта. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Artillery exchanges continue in Kharkov.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️В Харькове гремит канонада и взрывы, пожар в квартале, который ВСУ и нацбаты превратили в укрепрайон t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Another blown bridge in Sumy region.

Милитарист

ВСУ подорвали очередной мост - через реку Сейм в Сумской области

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian combat engineers cleaning up ordinance left behind by the fighting, likely Ukrainian.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Photos of Ukrainian service members that were recently exchanged POWs. I'm placing this under the Zaporozhye category because the Ukrainian government official that announced this exchange was from Zaporozhye, but I honestly don't know where exactly the exchange took place.

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vk.com

Russian military train, Zaporozhye.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Русский бронепоезд Z идёт по Запорожью Мелитополь. На этом бронепоезде армия России эвакуирует иностранцев и украинцев в Крым. /Саша Трэвел стрит/ t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian flags are over the administrative buildings of Berdyansk, locals have lined up to receive medication.

СМОТРИ

⚡️ "Городской совет сегодня лишился украинского флага". Житель Бердянска рассказал о нововведениях в жизни города "Люди стоят в очереди за лекарствами. Никаких митингов, никаких возмущений. Российская армия обеспечивает порядок", — рассказал горожанин. ▶️ @smotri_media

t.me

Pole taping continues, Dnepropetrovsk and Pavlograd.

Охота на ведьм

Эти пацаны из Днепра попались на слове "паляниця", из-за чего остались без белой БМВ и по-классике были примотаны к столбу. Украина 21 век.

t.me

Охота на ведьм

В центре города Павлоград (Днепропетровская область) женщина не знала правильного значения слова "паляниця", за это с неё стянули штаны и привязали к столбу. Проезжающая мимо полиция даже и не подумала о том, как обезопасить эту бедную женщину от изнасилования в такое дикое время. Очередной...

t.me

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Downed Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 near Kherson. It may well have been the one that directed artillery fires against Russian helos at Chernobaevka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Повёрнутые на Z войне

А вот и фото

t.me

Russian humanitarian aid distribution, Kherson.

Жизнь в оккупации

«Спасибо, ребята! Мы вас ждали!» Именно такими словами встречают жители Херсона российских военных, привезших в город так необходимые здесь продукты питания и медикаменты. Отметим, помимо хлеба, круп, сахара и консервов военные стараются привезти и детское питание, и сладости. У многих...

t.me

More protests in Kherson region, this time Novaya Kahovka.

Colonelcassad

Разгон недомайдана в Каховке.

t.me

 

[Feanor]

LDNR Front.

Unconfirmed info of a Russian jet going down near Izyum, and the pilot getting captured.

Colonelcassad

Под Изюмом сбили нашу Сушку. По сообщениям украинских источников, пилот попал в плен.

t.me

Russian strikes near Izyum.

Старше Эдды

Хроника боев на Изюмском фронте. Удар ВС РФ по обнаруженному противнику, конец марта 2022.

t.me

Rebel forces in action, Rubezhnoe. I have to say they don't look great here.

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Russian helo operations south of Izyum towards Kamenka.

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vk.com

Старше Эдды

Работа российской армейской авиации по танкам противника в Каменке, Изюмский фронт. Сейчас Каменка уже наша. На видео работа ПТРК «Вихрь».

t.me

Artillery exchanges around Kramatorsk.

Dambiev

Ночная канонада в Краматорской (Северодонбасской) агломерации. 2 апреля 2022 года.

t.me

Destroyed Kozak armored car south of Izyum.

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vk.com

РаZвед_ДоZор

Юг Изюма. Все, что осталось от украинского бронеавтомобиля «Козак-2» после точного попадания снаряда. Также недалеко от места обнаружен бронежилет производства норвежской фирмы NFM и каска военнослужащего 95 одшбр ВСУ с позывным «Коляда».

t.me

Destroyed BMP-1 and MT-LB, allegedly Ukrainian, near Orekhovo-Donetskoe, LNR area.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженная техника ВСУ в районе Орехово-Донецкое.

t.me

Captured Ukrainian equipment near Izyum.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

РаZвед_ДоZор

Очередная партия трофеев из Изюма, которая вскоре поступит на вооружение ЛДНР. Среди них: Британский ПТРК NLAW; Немецкий РПГ Panzerfaust 3; Шведский одноразовый гранатомет AT4; Чешский RPG-75; Монокуляр Bushnell 16x 52; Бинокль LEIDORY 25x50; Противошумные наушники 3M peltor. Всем миром...

t.me

Assorted footage around Izyum.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Поездка по окраине Изюма на БМП-3 — город наш Стратегически важный город в Харьковской области под полным контролем Армии России. Вопреки заявлениям Генштаба ВСУ, что якобы армия России "основные усилия сосредотачивает на продолжении наступательных действий в направлении города Изюм"...

t.me

A Russian column delivers humanitarian aid to Izyum. This is indirect confirmation that fighting has indeed shifted south from there.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Refugee camp in Starobel'skoe, LNR area. With the heavy fighting around Rubezhnoe, many people's homes have been destroyed.

РИА Новости

В Старобельске в ЛНР открылись пункты размещения для беженцев: люди выбирались под пулями и обстрелами украинских войск и теперь ждут освобождения своих городов

t.me

A group of rebel reservists prepares for movement into a battlezone. Note the old helmets and lack of body armor.

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vk.com

Rebel artillerymen receiving awards.

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vk.com

Assorted footage, Donbas.

Уголок Ситха

Донбасс. разное

t.me

Civilians in Rubezhnoe tells that they've been making temporary cemeteries in yards.

Славянск Z |Артёмовск|Краматорск

Жители города Рубежное в ЛНР, где на окраинах еще идут бои, из-за постоянных обстрелов хоронят погибших во дворах многоквартирных домов

t.me

Mariupol'.

Fighting, south-western Mariupol'. Rebel artillery impacts.

Oleg Blokhin

⚡️ Артобстрел юго-западного фланга обороны ВСУ в Мариуполе. Союзные силы РФ и ДНР прорываются к порту.

t.me

Lengthy video inside Mariupol' with a rebel btln commander. He says Ukrainian forces on the left shore are almost done, they're still fighting house to house on the left shore. You get some shots of the Chechens, a look at the destruction, and bodies of civilians being prepared for burial. The rebel commander notes that there are Ukrainian soldiers/fighters in civilian clothes. Warning footage of corpses.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Assorted footage, Mariupol'.

ANNA NEWS

⚡Корреспондент @anna_news запечатлел Азовское море в Мариуполе ❗️Эксклюзив❗️ Сейчас в районе Мариупольского порта образовывается ещё один котёл в котором уже очень "жарко". Подробнее об этом – в нашем репортаже. Если хотите помочь нашему волонтерскому проекту, то вот реквизиты карты...

t.me

ANNA NEWS

⚡️Репортаж военного корреспондента @anna_news из Мариуполя ❗️Эксклюзив❗️ Разгромленная техника и транспорт украинской армии в школе Мариуполя. Подробнее об этом – в нашем фото-репортаже. Если хотите помочь нашему волонтерскому проекту, то вот реквизиты карты Сбербанка: 5469 3800 5900 3375...

t.me

Telegram: Contact @chp_donetsk_dnr_ZV

t.me

Russian T-72B3 mod'16 on the streets of Mariupol'. It's interesting that despite the weeks of heavy fighting, we don't see scores of destroyed Russian tanks in Mariupol'. This suggests that the operation here was organized better. It also reinforces the idea that tanks were lost in such large numbers due to being abandoned on the march or not being evacuated after taking relatively minor damage.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Chechen snipers in Mariupol'.

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vk.com

Rebel forces in Mariupol'.

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vk.com

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vk.com

Уголок Ситха

2 апреля 2022. Мариуполь. Бойцы ДНР, воюющие в Мариуполе с 24 февраля и их снаряжение. На последнем фото мобилизованные студенты со снайперскими винтовками Мосина.

t.me

Уголок Ситха

Бойцы одного из штурмовых подразделений ДНР в Мариуполе.

t.me

Russian forces near Mariupol'.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

DNR Interior Troops are involved in the fighting in Mariupol'. This could indicate manpower shortages, but it could also indicate that they are being used to mop up operations, while the main forces push into the city. Note the destroyed BTR-70 shown at the beginning, that they identify as belonging to them. They also claim that some Ukrainian fighters were in civilian clothes. These might be territorial defense fighters.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian mortarman taken POW near Mariupol'. He says they were firing into Mariupol', and claims he was on drugs. The testimony is certainly questionable, and although Russian sources have been pushing the narrative of drug use among Ukrainian service members, evidence so far is scant to say the least.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian POW captured in Mariupol'. They are put to work on basic menial labor. The first interviewed is from a Convoy Btln (I suspect prisoner convoy not logistics). The second one (I can't make out what unit) says he tried to exit in civilian clothes but was stopped at a checkpoint and captured. The third one, black shirt green pants, is border guard service. He is from a small town called Yalta (not the one in Crimea) and it's already in rebel lands.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Locals appear to be happy to see rebel fighters, Mariupol'.

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️Просидевшие больше месяца в подвалах, жители Мариуполя выходят встречать союзные подразделения❗️ Люди благодарят бойцов за подаренную надежду на возвращение к нормальной жизни⚡️

t.me

The West.

The Kremenchug oil refinery burns. This might be old footage, or the fire might still be on-going.

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vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Последствия удара по НПЗ в Кременчуге, Полтавская область.

t.me

The Odessa oil refinery got hit as well as a number of local fuel storage facilities.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

ВС РФ сегодня утром уничтожили высокоточными ракетами нефтеперерабатывающий завод и три хранилища горюче-смазочных материалов в районе Одессы С объектов осуществлялись поставки топлива для группировки ВСУ на Николаевском направлении. (с) МО РФ

t.me

Рыбарь

Другие кадры последствий ударов по нефтебазам в Одессе. #Россия #Одесса #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

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vk.com

Dambiev

Еще видео с результатом ракетного удара по нефтебазе в Одессе. 2 апреля 2022 года.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Продолжающийся пожар в Одессе.

t.me

Misc.

Russian Ka-52 operations over Ukraine, location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian airstrike, location and context unclear.

Dambiev

Бомбардировка чугунием объектов ВСУ.

t.me

Ukrainian forces using aviation bombs as IEDs to blow a bridge.

Рыбарь

Украинские пропагандисты часто пытаются выдать подрыв мостов за последствия российских авиаударов. В доказательство они публикуют осколки от бомб, найденные местными жителями рядом с уничтоженными путепроводами. Как так происходит — наглядно обьясняет данное видео. На кадрах кроме ящиков с...

t.me

Anti-tank mines scattered generously over a field in Ukraine. Many such minefields exist and their cleanup will be quite a task.

Dambiev

Противотанковые мины в поле на Украине. Видео (с) Мужской клуб Донбасса.

t.me

More Chechen volunteers head to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Panzerfaust-3 rockets captured by Russia or rebel forces. Location and context unclear.

Военкор Астрахань

Захваченные у украинских войск выстрелы к немецкому гранатомëту Панцерфауст 3. Это универсальные тандемные DM32, также известные как "bunkerfaust". Что намекает на "оборонительную" специфику данного боеприпаса. Также на фото уже знакомые нам болгарские "пороха" для СПГ в белых пластиковых...

t.me

Captured weapons, location and context unclear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Трофеи с боевой операции: захвачено оружие НАТО и ПТРК "Стугна" В боях на Украине российские военные захватили стрелковое вооружение стран НАТО, гранатометы и ПТРК "Стугна". На фото британско-шведский гранатомет АТ-4, украино-американский автомат WAC47, разбитая станина от противотанкового...

t.me

Up-gunned MT-LB allegedly captured by the rebels from Azov. Location and context unclear.

Telegram: Contact @ZmarmotaV

t.me

Captured BTR-4, location and context unclear.

Повёрнутые на Z войне

И ещё один из Русичей с трофейным БТР-4

t.me

General-colonel Lapin, Center MD commander, handing out awards in Ukraine. There has been quite a few of these videos lately.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine's 60th Infantry Bde receives western machineguns.

bmpd

60-я отдельная пехотная бригада Резервного корпуса ВСУ cообщила, что получила поставленные в порядке западной военной помощи 12,7-мм пулеметы Browning M2 и 7,62-мм пулеметы MG3

t.me

Pole taping by Ukrainian police, location and context unclear.

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️Средневековье в нашей Украине процветает⚡️ Просто посмотрите кто его привязывают, наша Нацполиция‼️

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Russian sources both official and social media are responding to the allegations in Bucha. I'll post a summary of what I've come across here. Warning footage of corpses. Proceed at your own discretion, as this entire post is a discussion of evidence of warcrimes and executions of civilians.

Russia officially and predictably denies any involvement in the killings in Bucha. Russia claims that they had left Bucha on March 30th, and the first footage appeared 4 days later. The corpses allegedly looked too fresh.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Here we have a video where Ukrainian territorial defense discusses their ROEs apparently to be "shoot at anyone who doesn't have blue armbands". It's certainly not definitive but it fits with the slew of incidents we've seen of Ukrainian territorial defense shooting up civilian cars due to poor ROEs.

Андрей Vышинский

Еще к слову о Буче. Видео одного из главарей киевской террористической обороны по кличке "Боцман" (это бежавший из РФ в сальный Рейх нацист, если кто не помнит). На нем мы отчетливо слышим следующее: - Вон пацаны без синих повязок, можно по ним стрелять? - А то, бл*! Вчера первой в Бучу зашли...

t.me

Some of the bodies at Bucha have white armbands, this is a tactical symbol used by Russian forces in the area. They're clearly civilians but they could have been fired upon on those grounds.

Kotsnews

Вот еще доказательства. Тела в Буче с белыми повязками - опознавательный знак россиян. ВСУ стреляли по людям, не разбирая, есть у них оружие или нет. Главное, что на них - белые повязки, а значит это - враг. Украинские журналисты, откройте глаза. Это не российские войска покрошили мирных жителей...

t.me

The same white armband can be seen on one of the bodies in the basement.

Kotsnews

⚡️⚡️⚡️Вот вы и спалились, господа ципсошники, со своей постановой в Буче, ради которой вы убили тех, кого посчитали агентами «оккупантов». На своем же видео спалились. Сейчас в украинском сегменте распространяют этот ролик, в котором утверждается, что в одном из зданий в Буче россияне устроили...

t.me

Inside Donetsk

Вот еще скрин с украинского видео из подвала, в котором россияне якобы расстреливали мирных жителей. Белая повязка на рукаве. Расстрелян тербатовцами или ВСУ. @sashakots

t.me

This video shows one of the dead bodies appearing to move. The insinuation is that this is staged.

Telegram: Contact @newsfrontnotes

t.me

So far we have two narratives emerging, one being that this was staged, the other being that these are acts committed by Ukrainian forces being passed off as Russian crimes. Russian officialdom appeals to be leaning on the side of the second story, but hasn't really committed itself to a narrative. Do we think Russia came in with the mindset of mass murdering civilians as part of some occupation strategy? I think this is unlikely. The conflict is very well documented, and Russia is now administering large swathes of territory in southern Ukraine. It would be hard to hide mass murder on a large scale for long. On the other hand we have seen Russian security forces conduct raids all over Kherson. Could they be executing people extra-judicially? They certainly could be. Could they be going after legitimate targets such as local crime or Ukrainian resistance groups? Also yes. It's hard to say at this point. Russia has made a big show of delivering humanitarian aid in any regions it controls. Russia has also made big gestures of trying to have civilians evacuate cities prior to a Russian assault. Both actions are at least partially self-serving, but neither fits well with a strategy that involves ethnic cleansing. In my opinion, at least as of now, the picture is too contradictory to be sure.

 

[STURM]

It was done during WW2 at Katyn, it can easily be done again.

The difference with Katyn is that sanctioned; Polish officers together with the intelligentsia were considered dangerous elements.

 

[GermanHerman]

This video shows one of the dead bodies appearing to move. The insinuation is that this is staged.

Telegram: Contact @newsfrontnotes

t.me

Thank you for your Updates, but the quoted video does infact not show the body move.

What is perceived as the hand is actualy a drop of water or snowflake moving over the windshield of the car. Its clear to see in enlarged versions of the Video. I'll try to find a link.

The actual hands of the person appaer to be dark / near black and dont move at all.

Same goes of the body moving in the rearview mirror. It's the curvature of the mirror and the movement of the car which produce the illusion of movement.


EDIT: here is the video, you can see it's not the body moving but something on the windshield:

https://files.catbox.moe/psmnzw.webm

 

[Feanor]

Thank you for your Updates, but the quoted video does infact not show the body move.

What is perceived as the hand is actualy a drop of water or snowflake moving over the windshield of the car. Its clear to see in enlarged versions of the Video. I'll try to find a link.

The actual hands of the person appaer to be dark / near black and dont move at all.

Same goes of the body moving in the rearview mirror. It's the curvature of the mirror and the movement of the car which produce the illusion of movement.


EDIT: here is the video, you can see it's not the body moving but something on the windshield:

https://files.catbox.moe/psmnzw.webm

Excellent, thank you for clearing it up.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Thank you for your Updates, but the quoted video does infact not show the body move.

What is perceived as the hand is actualy a drop of water or snowflake moving over the windshield of the car. Its clear to see in enlarged versions of the Video. I'll try to find a link.

The actual hands of the person appaer to be dark / near black and dont move at all.

Same goes of the body moving in the rearview mirror. It's the curvature of the mirror and the movement of the car which produce the illusion of movement.


EDIT: here is the video, you can see it's not the body moving but something on the windshield:

https://files.catbox.moe/psmnzw.webm

Agreed it is something on the windsheild. Are you sure those are hands? I can't be sure. The video quality is ... not exactly hi res. If so, it looks to me like bulky gloves, but cannot be sure. If these are hands/gloves, why are they sticking up like that? Could be the body was turned after rigor mortis set in. I won't pursue that line further as I simply can't see well enough anyway.

@Feanor Yes there do appear to be white arm bands. Why? I can't figure it out. Why would Ukrainian civilians wear them? It's the color of surrender, and civilians under occupation often display white sheets on their houses, at least at first, but armbands? When the Russians themselves use white armbands?

EDIT: According to a lady interviewed here, the Russians made the civilians wear white armbands:

Russian retreat leaves trail of dead civilians in Bucha, a town near Kyiv

Dead civilians still lay scattered over the streets of the Ukrainian country town of Bucha on Saturday, three days after the invading Russian army pulled back from its abortive advance on Kyiv to the southeast.

reuters.com

I have seen nothing anywhere else about Russians requiring civilians to wear white armbands. If true, why only in Bucha? Or have I simply my seed TV s being done in other villages and towns?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510648066403143683

This is getting interesting. Russian give counter claim. Well does not matter anyway. The Western mainstream media will take anything from Ukranian side as gold information anyway.

Unconsumed blood? I know they mean uncongealed, but ... "Hey, guys, it could not have been us Russians! No! We are all greedy vampires and would never leave any unconsumed blood! Must have been those stinky Azov pigs!"

Speaking of Azov, unless the NYT is mistaken about Azov being in Bucha, those guys sure get around, don't they? Note photo caption:

U.S. and European leaders express outrage at the images from Bucha. (Published 2022)

Russia’s Ministry of Defense called the images “staged,” saying in a statement that “not a single” civilian had been injured in the town.

nytimes.com

Any confirmation on their presence there?

 

[Ananda]

need an independent and international investigation into this, the sooner the better.

Idealy even also in Mariupol, for Russian claims on systematics human shield practices by Azov guys. However too much accusation of each other and propaganda on both side. Finding ones that basically can be accepted by both side is close to impossible this days. Russian will be extremely suspicious for any Western elements, just like Ukraine will be suspicious if it bring elements from country that not in line with the "International" sanctions band wagon.

Besides this days around does it matter anymore? War Crimes accusation usualy can not be prosecuted anyway, unless the other side is completely beaten. War Crimes prosecution only works against party that already beaten and surrender anyway. I'm might be cynics, but that's the realities.

 

[QEDdeq]

Russian sources both official and social media are responding to the allegations in Bucha. I'll post a summary of what I've come across here. Warning footage of corpses. Proceed at your own discretion, as this entire post is a discussion of evidence of warcrimes and executions of civilians.

Russia officially and predictably denies any involvement in the killings in Bucha. Russia claims that they had left Bucha on March 30th, and the first footage appeared 4 days later. The corpses allegedly looked too fresh.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Here we have a video where Ukrainian territorial defense discusses their ROEs apparently to be "shoot at anyone who doesn't have blue armbands". It's certainly not definitive but it fits with the slew of incidents we've seen of Ukrainian territorial defense shooting up civilian cars due to poor ROEs.

Андрей Vышинский

Еще к слову о Буче. Видео одного из главарей киевской террористической обороны по кличке "Боцман" (это бежавший из РФ в сальный Рейх нацист, если кто не помнит). На нем мы отчетливо слышим следующее: - Вон пацаны без синих повязок, можно по ним стрелять? - А то, бл*! Вчера первой в Бучу зашли...

t.me

Some of the bodies at Bucha have white armbands, this is a tactical symbol used by Russian forces in the area. They're clearly civilians but they could have been fired upon on those grounds.

Kotsnews

Вот еще доказательства. Тела в Буче с белыми повязками - опознавательный знак россиян. ВСУ стреляли по людям, не разбирая, есть у них оружие или нет. Главное, что на них - белые повязки, а значит это - враг. Украинские журналисты, откройте глаза. Это не российские войска покрошили мирных жителей...

t.me

The same white armband can be seen on one of the bodies in the basement.

Kotsnews

⚡️⚡️⚡️Вот вы и спалились, господа ципсошники, со своей постановой в Буче, ради которой вы убили тех, кого посчитали агентами «оккупантов». На своем же видео спалились. Сейчас в украинском сегменте распространяют этот ролик, в котором утверждается, что в одном из зданий в Буче россияне устроили...

t.me

Inside Donetsk

Вот еще скрин с украинского видео из подвала, в котором россияне якобы расстреливали мирных жителей. Белая повязка на рукаве. Расстрелян тербатовцами или ВСУ. @sashakots

t.me

This video shows one of the dead bodies appearing to move. The insinuation is that this is staged.

Telegram: Contact @newsfrontnotes

t.me

So far we have two narratives emerging, one being that this was staged, the other being that these are acts committed by Ukrainian forces being passed off as Russian crimes. Russian officialdom appeals to be leaning on the side of the second story, but hasn't really committed itself to a narrative. Do we think Russia came in with the mindset of mass murdering civilians as part of some occupation strategy? I think this is unlikely. The conflict is very well documented, and Russia is now administering large swathes of territory in southern Ukraine. It would be hard to hide mass murder on a large scale for long. On the other hand we have seen Russian security forces conduct raids all over Kherson. Could they be executing people extra-judicially? They certainly could be. Could they be going after legitimate targets such as local crime or Ukrainian resistance groups? Also yes. It's hard to say at this point. Russia has made a big show of delivering humanitarian aid in any regions it controls. Russia has also made big gestures of trying to have civilians evacuate cities prior to a Russian assault. Both actions are at least partially self-serving, but neither fits well with a strategy that involves ethnic cleansing. In my opinion, at least as of now, the picture is too contradictory to be sure.

There are further gaps in the narrative that require more detailed investigation. According to Russian MoD the mayor of the city said on March 31 that there were no Russian troops remaining in Bucha but that he made no mention of civilians dead in the streets with their hand tied. So why would this emerge only three days later? Or four days later since the Russians claim they withdrew from Bucha on March 30.
Source: https://tass.com/defense/1431767

Another interesting thing is that the CNN reporter who went there with the group of journos who were driven around the place by a Ukrainian police unit doesn't say anything about the bodies in the street, he just tells about the 'mass grave' behind the church where apparently a dozen bodies were berried, however from the images we see most of them are in body bags so we don't know if those are civilians or soldiers. On the last seconds of his story he mentions that in some places (not necessarily in Bucha) there are still bodies in the street but without making any specific comment. Its almost like he was pushed to say something about bodies on the street but he made it sound very general and not specific to the place he visited. I find it hard to believe that in over 2 minutes of him telling the story of his visit to Bucha he wouldn't make a more specific mention of the street bodies. Here is the interview, he starts speaking from 3 minute mark.

Bodies of 'executed people' strewn across street in Bucha as Ukraine accuses Russia of war crimes

The lifeless bodies of at least 20 civilian men line a single street in the town of Bucha. Some lie face down on the pavement while others are collapsed on their backs, mouths open in a tragic testament to the horrors of Russian occupation.

edition.cnn.com

I have no doubt that the mass grave is real, the area has seen intense shelling during weeks of combat, just like in Irpin there were probably many civilians and soldiers hit by bombardments who needed to be berried somewhere. However, a mass grave doesn't indicate that civilians were specifically targeted. To demonstrate intent something more direct is needed, like bodies on the street with hand tied behind their back. However I remain unconvinced by this part of the scenario, main reason being the time gap between the Russian withdrawal and the date when Ukraine brought the journos to show them around. But also a bit sketchy that all were men and they were all filmed or photographed in such way that their faces are not visible so they can't be identified. Also weird, if these people were indeed locals and there was no active conflict in the city since a few days why there were no relatives checking or retrieving the bodies from the street.

 

[TScott]

Of cause russia has to deny this, we cant rely on any official statements of the accused / involved parties.

We need an independent and international investigation into this, the sooner the better.

It was done during WW2 at Katyn, it can easily be done again.

The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth

'The Katyn Massacre’ is a symbolic term. It refers to a series of mass murders of Poles imprisoned in special camps of Kozelsk, Starobilsk, and Ostashkov, and in prisons located in the so-called Western Ukraine and Western Belarus (Eastern Borderlands of the Second Polish Republic that were...

warsawinstitute.org

Experts can be brought in in mere hours by airplane. No one has any ground to deny them access to this.

It's been done in more places than just Katyn.

In fact Nick Kaldas, former NSW assistant police commissioner headed up the investigations for the UN special investigation of the use of Chemical Weapons in Syria, as well as the UN investigation into Lebanon in the 00's.

https://soundcloud.com/lowyinstitute%2Fnick-kaldas-on-middle-east-peace-to-chemical-weapons-in-syria
Plenty of NSW and Vic Police, particularly crime scene investigators have been seconded into Europe in the last 2 decades for task forces into the Balkan Wars, there's also a podcast going into one of them investigating mass Jewish graves in Russia in the early 90's and potential war crimes of the German Army during their occupation.

The techniques learnt on that task force in Russia regarding the use of heavy machinery to find shallow graves over a large search area, without destroying evidence, has been used to solve some high profile murders in Australia since.

 

[Feanor]

There are further gaps in the narrative that require more detailed investigation. According to Russian MoD the mayor of the city said on March 31 that there were no Russian troops remaining in Bucha but that he made no mention of civilians dead in the streets with their hand tied. So why would this emerge only three days later? Or four days later since the Russians claim they withdrew from Bucha on March 30.
Source: https://tass.com/defense/1431767

Another interesting thing is that the CNN reporter who went there with the group of journos who were driven around the place by a Ukrainian police unit doesn't say anything about the bodies in the street, he just tells about the 'mass grave' behind the church where apparently a dozen bodies were berried, however from the images we see most of them are in body bags so we don't know if those are civilians or soldiers. On the last seconds of his story he mentions that in some places (not necessarily in Bucha) there are still bodies in the street but without making any specific comment. Its almost like he was pushed to say something about bodies on the street but he made it sound very general and not specific to the place he visited. I find it hard to believe that in over 2 minutes of him telling the story of his visit to Bucha he wouldn't make a more specific mention of the street bodies. Here is the interview, he starts speaking from 3 minute mark.

Bodies of 'executed people' strewn across street in Bucha as Ukraine accuses Russia of war crimes

The lifeless bodies of at least 20 civilian men line a single street in the town of Bucha. Some lie face down on the pavement while others are collapsed on their backs, mouths open in a tragic testament to the horrors of Russian occupation.

edition.cnn.com

I have no doubt that the mass grave is real, the area has seen intense shelling during weeks of combat, just like in Irpin there were probably many civilians and soldiers hit by bombardments who needed to be berried somewhere. However, a mass grave doesn't indicate that civilians were specifically targeted. To demonstrate intent something more direct is needed, like bodies on the street with hand tied behind their back. However I remain unconvinced by this part of the scenario, main reason being the time gap between the Russian withdrawal and the date when Ukraine brought the journos to show them around. But also a bit sketchy that all were men and they were all filmed or photographed in such way that their faces are not visible so they can't be identified. Also weird, if these people were indeed locals and there was no active conflict in the city since a few days why there were no relatives checking or retrieving the bodies from the street.

I'm not sold on that withdrawal timeline. It's possible the timeline is accurate and information coming to us is delayed, but I suspect Russian troops weren't all out by the 30th. There's also some time delay between Russian withdrawal and Ukraine providing full access to the location to journalists. There's a lot of messiness here.

 

[oldsig127]

This is getting interesting. Russian give counter claim. Well does not matter anyway. The Western mainstream media will take anything from Ukranian side as gold information anyway.

It certainly is getting interesting. I notice that you take almost anything from the Ukrainian side as being fake.

Not only the media can fall prey to preconceptions.

oldsig

 

[StingrayOZ]

Germany refuses to supply Ukraine with 100 Marder IFV requested by Kyiv: Reports

Berlin [Germany], April 3 (ANI/Sputnik): Berlin declined Kyiv’s request to supply 100 Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Ukraine, German media Welt reported on Sunday, citing defence sources. Last Wednesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov sent a letter to the German Defense...

theprint.in

Berlin [Germany], April 3 (ANI/Sputnik): Berlin declined Kyiv’s request to supply 100 Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Ukraine, German media Welt reported on Sunday, citing defence sources.

Last Wednesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov sent a letter to the German Defense Ministry asking for 100 Marder-type IFVs and other heavy weaponry. Sources in Kyiv told Welt that German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht rejected the request in a phone conversation with Reznikov .

Earlier, the German Defence Ministry confirmed the receipt of Kyiv’s request to Welt, saying that all Marder IFVs are bound by NATO commitments, therefore their withdrawal from positions would then have to be resolved within NATO. (ANI/Sputnik)

Curiously however...

Germany okays sale of former GDR infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine

Germany has approved the delivery to Ukraine of several dozen infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) that originally belonged to the former communist East Germany amid criticism that Berlin is not sending enough military aid to Kyiv.

www.reuters.com

He was responding to requests for confirmation of a media report that said 58 vehicles armed with canons and machine guns were to be supplied to Ukraine.

Berlin passed the IFVs on to Sweden at the end of the 1990s, which later sold them to a Czech company that now aims to sell them to Kyiv, according to Welt am Sonntag newspaper.

I find it a bit hard to believe there isn't a single marder available in NATO.

Particularly as they were supposed to be replaced by the Puma.

Germany Still Can’t Give Up Its Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles After Half A Century

The latest upgrade for the Marder armored vehicle might be the last, but it’s still going strong in Germany and elsewhere.

www.thedrive.com

Its starting to make sense why Australia was asked to provide a PMV given some NATO states hesitation to contribute, even old equipment. Also why the PM boldly announced they would fly them in. As a gift not a sale. It also explains some context that the defence ministers comments about working with Germany and France on a solution.

There probably aren't that many non-NATO states that will quite happily and outwardly annoy Russia and is effectively beyond Russia's reach both economically and militarily.

Although the Bushmaster is not an IFV, it would be a good way to move troops behind lines and particularly good for ambulance duties.