The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Ananda]

Western media and politicians especially in US and UK seems to think that Ukranian Army now got more tanks from Russia then they have lost.

If that's true, then why they don't roll out Russian position now ? Their major offensives that's being claim by mostly US and UK media and politicians, related to reclaim possition in Kyiev area that being left by Russian tactical retreat.

Is there big counter offensive in East? Cause that's where the big fight is. The claimed Russian lost also happen in the East and South anyway.

I don't want to counter claim on Russian heavy losses by western source like Oryx done. Don't want to put Russian or Pro Russian counter claim also. However just like some already put in here, did Oryx or others also calculate right number on Ukrainian losses? Cause their method base on videos taken, and again Russian use much less videos on their operations relative to Ukranian.

But lets see. If Ukraine really getting less casualties and armoured losses just as Ukranian and Western sources claim, then this war must be end by this month, with massive roll out and surrender of Russian possition in all fronts. Lets see if that happen.

By second week of this war, it is clear this war already become War of Attrition. Again I don't dispute the number of Russian Losses, I just sometimes chuckle the 'discounted' losses thar Western sources put on Ukranian ones. If their claim is true, then massive roll out to all Russian possition must happen by now. Not just Ukranian offensive toward possition that's being left by Russian.

 

[Twain]

We start to really see the toll of Mr Putins war Almost 300 buried in mass grave in Bucha, near Kyiv: Mayor | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Lots of pictures from Bucha being posted now. People with their hands tied behind their backs and shot, many people shot in the head. I won't link the pictures of the dead, they are easy to find on twitter if anyone wants to look.

This wasn't an army invading, this was a barbarian horde more concerned with executing people, raping and looting. Hell one russian truck was photographed with Ukranian washing machines in the back.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510214095844356097

 

[seaspear]

New from Belorussia on the war

Belarusians Say Russian Soldiers Are Selling Equipment And Other Items Looted From Ukraine

Russian soldiers returning or redeploying from Ukraine frequently try to sell looted goods to Belarusians in southern border districts, according to interviews with multiple residents.

www.rferl.org

 

[phreeky]

If that's true, then why they don't roll out Russian position now ?

If Ukraine have lost tanks (which obviously they have) then they've lost crews. A tank towed back to a farmers barn isn't much use without a means to fuel, arm and operate it.

 

[cdxbow]

Ukraine claims that Russian forces have left land mines and booby traps in the areas they are 'advancing backwards' from. This article talks in some detail about the POM-3, that can be launched on rocket. Ukraine: Russia Uses Banned Antipersonnel Landmines | Human Rights Watch (hrw.org) If the Russians are leaving them behind in a civilian areas does that constitute a war crime?

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Lots of pictures from Bucha being posted now. People with their hands tied behind their backs and shot, many people shot in the head. I won't link the pictures of the dead, they are easy to find on twitter if anyone wants to look.

This wasn't an army invading, this was a barbarian horde more concerned with executing people, raping and looting. Hell one russian truck was photographed with Ukranian washing machines in the back.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510214095844356097

Looks like a certain town after Op Storm in Croatia 1995, mass graves, bodies, Croat military trucks laden with loot. Only difference being you could barely walk in the streets for all the spent shells. Group from the school for handicapped executed by Bosnian Muslim V Corps. Total carnage all the way down the road to that town where the refugee column was caught between the Croats and V Corps. Barns full of livestock burned alive. Animals tortured to death (and sometimes people, some beheaded). Horrors in village after village. People don't realize how hideous these sorts of wars are. And the videos and photos don't include the smell.

Sometimes people think I'm pro-Putin for wishing there could be a peace deal asap. Hardly. More than that I wish he'd never started this. It's because of this. To stop this. All these people with their Ukrainian flags on their Twitter and FB accounts cheering this on like it's a football game, fight to the last Ukrainian, waving the bloody shirt. They have no idea. And it's not their brother, father, sister, granny lying dead in the street.

Meanwhile, back in Mariupol, there are videos of all kinds of atrocities against civilians allegedly committed by Azov and possibly Ukrainian soldiers -- we will have to wait for confirmation. I am *not* implying moral equivalence. The Russians are the invaders and have killed many innocent civilians. The sad fact is, once this stuff gets started, it escalates. In former Yugoslavia each side was literally as bad as it could be. Yes, whichever side had the upper hand at the moment in a location was capable of committing unspeakable horrors. The media tended to only report those committed by one side. Not to say everyone there was a war criminal. Far from it. The great majority were ordinary people who never wanted any war, just wanted to live their ordinary lives, but they suffered and lost their homes and died.

Someone mentioned Lidice in an earlier post. There were hundreds of Lidices in Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina during WWII. First the inhabitants of entire towns and villages were slaughtered (including women and children), then the death camps set up. Numerically, most victims were Serbs, but as a percentage of population, the Jews had the worst of it (80%). Of course the Roma were slaughtered as well. It was so horrific, their SS minders were alarmed, as were the Italians occupying Dalmatia. Fifty years later, it started again, only this time the Serbs got in on it, too (Croats and Bosnian Muslims had sided with the Nazis in WWII). The death count was much, much lower in the 1990s, at least, although the ethnic cleansing of certain areas turned out to be permanent.

Now, some 80 years later, here it is in Ukraine. I hoped the passing of another generation would lessen the horrors in Ukraine. We think the scars of WWII have healed, but in places like former Y and Ukraine and Russia, not so much. It's almost like dark things spawned during WWII get called up and swirl about, infecting some critical percent of the people and they do these terrible things, and then it starts a bloody revenge cycle of butchery.

Ukraine claims that Russian forces have left land mines and booby traps in the areas they are 'advancing backwards' from. This article talks in some detail about the POM-3, that can be launched on rocket. Ukraine: Russia Uses Banned Antipersonnel Landmines | Human Rights Watch (hrw.org) If the Russians are leaving them behind in a civilian areas does that constitute a war crime?

The Croats did that during/after Op Storm. Sometimes houses where there were bodies were booby trapped or mined, sometimes bodies in the open. Targets were mainly UN, but also OSCE and ICRC. Warnings went out to all three organizations after some Canadian officers first discovered this. I was so lucky to have a Dutch AF officer on my team who was an expert at spotting booby traps. A couple of houses, I don't know how he managed to spot the tripwires. I will always be grateful for him. I hope no one in Ukraine is harmed by these devilish things.

A fine Canadian officer we all respected and adored got his legs blown off. He had two small children. No one accused the Croats of war crimes for that, or for the booby traps and mines found, but they were US pets and we had assisted with Op Storm in a number of ways, so.... of course they were not accused.

Because it's Russians, they may be accused, and various Western leaders and the media will holler, but who will prosecute unless they are caught on Ukrainian soil? Nobody is going to invade Russia to drag them out and try them. Russia *might* quietly deal with those guys, as they have embarrassed them, but we likely will not hear of it. And if the Ukrainians commit war crimes that can't be completely ignored, you will hear a couple of tsk tsks and then crickets. It's just the way of the world.

 

[Twain]

Looks like a certain town after Op Storm in Croatia 1995, mass graves, bodies, Croat military trucks laden with loot. Only difference being you could barely walk in the streets for all the spent shells. Group from the school for handicapped executed by Bosnian Muslim V Corps. Total carnage all the way down the road to that town where the refugee column was caught between the Croats and V Corps. Barns full of livestock burned alive. Animals tortured to death (and sometimes people, some beheaded). Horrors in village after village. People don't realize how hideous these sorts of wars are. And the videos and photos don't include the smell.

Sometimes people think I'm pro-Putin for wishing there could be a peace deal asap. Hardly. More than that I wish he'd never started this. It's because of this. To stop this. All these people with their Ukrainian flags on their Twitter and FB accounts cheering this on like it's a football game, fight to the last Ukrainian, waving the bloody shirt. They have no idea. And it's not their brother, father, sister, granny lying dead in the street.

Meanwhile, back in Mariupol, there are videos of all kinds of atrocities against civilians allegedly committed by Azov and possibly Ukrainian soldiers -- we will have to wait for confirmation. I am *not* implying moral equivalence. The Russians are the invaders and have killed many innocent civilians. The sad fact is, once this stuff gets started, it escalates. In former Yugoslavia each side was literally as bad as it could be. Yes, whichever side had the upper hand at the moment in a location was capable of committing unspeakable horrors. The media tended to only report those committed by one side. Not to say everyone there was a war criminal. Far from it. The great majority were ordinary people who never wanted any war, just wanted to live their ordinary lives, but they suffered and lost their homes and died.

Someone mentioned Lidice in an earlier post. There were hundreds of Lidices in Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina during WWII. First the inhabitants of entire towns and villages were slaughtered (including women and children), then the death camps set up. Numerically, most victims were Serbs, but as a percentage of population, the Jews had the worst of it (80%). Of course the Roma were slaughtered as well. It was so horrific, their SS minders were alarmed, as were the Italians occupying Dalmatia. Fifty years later, it started again, only this time the Serbs got in on it, too (Croats and Bosnian Muslims had sided with the Nazis in WWII). The death count was much, much lower in the 1990s, at least, although the ethnic cleansing of certain areas turned out to be permanent.

Now, some 80 years later, here it is in Ukraine. I hoped the passing of another generation would lessen the horrors in Ukraine. We think the scars of WWII have healed, but in places like former Y and Ukraine and Russia, not so much. It's almost like dark things spawned during WWII get called up and swirl about, infecting some critical percent of the people and they do these terrible things, and then it starts a bloody revenge cycle of butchery.

I can't say I disagree with you on the substance of your post but there are some significant differences:

1 Azov Btn wouldn't even exist if it weren't for Putin's 2014 invasion. He is the one that created the environment that Azov was created in and has thrived.

2 Azov won't exist in any significant numbers once the fight in Mariupol is over but the russians responsible for this will never be held to account for what they did.

The blame for this entire mess can be laid at Putin's feet. The only chance for Putin seeing any justice is the long shot of someone slipping him a cup of polonium tea.

Unfortunately you are right that this will only escalate things, I doubt many russians will be captured alive in the coming weeks. As far as peace talks go, I don't think there will be any resolution until one side achieves a decisive advantage and slaughters like this make it less likely either side will come to terms. I also think every massacre like this just makes it more likely that the west will be more forthcoming in supplying military equipment to Ukraine. If it keeps up I don't even rule out one or more western nations becoming actively involved. Things like this can change public opinion rapidly and that is what will drive the political and military actions to be even more overt.

 

[Feanor]

I can't say I disagree with you on the substance of your post but there are some significant differences:

1 Azov Btn wouldn't even exist if it weren't for Putin's 2014 invasion. He is the one that created the environment that Azov was created in and has thrived.

This isn't really true. Azov is a piece of a right wing resurgence across Europe, especially Eastern Europe. Russian actions in '14 gave Azov extra utility within Ukrainian domestic politics. It highlighted the decrepitude of state institutions in Ukraine, especially force-wielding ones, and highlighted that there are significant segments of the population in areas of Ukraine that would either welcome or at least accept a Russian takeover with minimal fuss. This led Ukrainian authorities to lean on ultra-nationalism and conduct a policy of forced assimilation domestically, a policy that is of course quite ugly and would be unacceptable in a western democracy, lending credibility to Russia's narrative about Ukrainian nationalism. This is compounded by the rise of many nationalist movements across the former USSR that often define their identity at least in part by denying their connection to Russia. I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole, so I'll sum it up thusly; Azov specifically was a response to the events of '14 but movements like Azov including S14 would have existed (and did in fact exist) regardless. Svoboda, Right Sector, S14, all predate the events of '14, and are part of a bigger pattern.

2 Azov won't exist in any significant numbers once the fight in Mariupol is over but the russians responsible for this will never be held to account for what they did.

I wouldn't be too sure on either count. Azov was effectively split up for the current war, half of it went to Kharkov. You'll note the interesting pattern. In each case they're sent to a large city that could potentially accept a Russian occupation with minimal resistance from the locals. In each case they can turn an easy takeover into a bloody urban battle that would drive out the locals, cause massive casualties, destroy the city, and prevent the kind of picture that the Russian and rebel moves in '14 created. It's a vile and dirty strategy but an effective one.

As for Russian responsibility, I suspect that if the current allegations surrounding mass murders in Bucha turn out to be correct, the international outrage will take a heavy toll on Russia and make it harder then ever for Russia to find its way out of the current corner Putin painted it into. Even if they turn out to be false, a significant portion of the damage is already done.

The blame for this entire mess can be laid at Putin's feet. The only chance for Putin seeing any justice is the long shot of someone slipping him a cup of polonium tea.

He could face some sort of consequence from an internal coup d'etat. The real issue is what happens post Putin. Will the West insist on Russia returning Crimea even against the will of the local population? Will Ukraine get to reabsorb the LDNR area with whatever forced assimilation/terror tactics they choose to employ? For all the allegations, Putin isn't really a Russian nationalist. Though he does try to use nationalist feelings to further his goals. He also tries to use Soviet-nostalgia and even downright socialist/communist movements. If he falls and the west pushes hard, a real nationalist could come to power.

Unfortunately you are right that this will only escalate things, I doubt many russians will be captured alive in the coming weeks. As far as peace talks go, I don't think there will be any resolution until one side achieves a decisive advantage and slaughters like this make it less likely either side will come to terms. I also think every massacre like this just makes it more likely that the west will be more forthcoming in supplying military equipment to Ukraine. If it keeps up I don't even rule out one or more western nations becoming actively involved. Things like this can change public opinion rapidly and that is what will drive the political and military actions to be even more overt.

Of course a diplomatic resolution is only possible after the end of the campaign in the east, one way or another. Personally I still think the outcome is nearly predetermined. Ukraine can have some control over how it arrives at the end state where Russia controls the entire LDNR area and a few others outside of that. I don't believe Ukraine can prevent this outcome.

 

[seaspear]

Re the will of the Crimean people as previously little green men oversaw elections that were not internationally recognised

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/little-green-men-the-annexation-of-crimea-as-an-emblem-of-pro-kremlin-disinformation/

Certainly, also Russia has had issues with Ukraine's legislation on indigenous rights , certainly like the mass deportation of the majority Tartar population who were not allowed to return let alone vote in Crimea

https://euromaidanpress.com/2021/07/02/ukraine-recognizes-three-crimean-peoples-as-indigenous-infuriating-russia/

 

[Feanor]

Re the will of the Crimean people as previously little green men oversaw elections that were not internationally recognised

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/little-green-men-the-annexation-of-crimea-as-an-emblem-of-pro-kremlin-disinformation/

I think you're missing the point. If the will of the Crimean people is to reunite with Ukraine in a post-Putin Russia, that's pretty clear cut and the west can support that. But what happens if it's not? Locals met Russian troops in '14 with Russian flags and celebration in the streets. It would be a significant departure for this to reverse itself. It's not impossible but consider the demographics of Crimea among other things.

Certainly, also Russia has had issues with Ukraine's legislation on indigenous rights , certainly like the mass deportation of the majority Tartar population who were not allowed to return let alone vote in Crimea

https://euromaidanpress.com/2021/07/02/ukraine-recognizes-three-crimean-peoples-as-indigenous-infuriating-russia/

A very silly claim. Russia has no problems with the rights of indigenous minorities. I suggest you read up on why Russia is called a Federation. I suggest you consider what it means when ethnic Russians, clearly the second largest ethnic group in modern day Ukraine, easily as indigenous to southern Ukraine as Ukrainians are (both settled the area around the same time) are excluded from being considered indigenous to Ukraine. Add this to the above considerations on the rise of nationalism.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

I can't say I disagree with you on the substance of your post but there are some significant differences:

1 Azov Btn wouldn't even exist if it weren't for Putin's 2014 invasion. He is the one that created the environment that Azov was created in and has thrived.

2 Azov won't exist in any significant numbers once the fight in Mariupol is over but the russians responsible for this will never be held to account for what they did.

The blame for this entire mess can be laid at Putin's feet. The only chance for Putin seeing any justice is the long shot of someone slipping him a cup of polonium tea.

Unfortunately you are right that this will only escalate things, I doubt many russians will be captured alive in the coming weeks. As far as peace talks go, I don't think there will be any resolution until one side achieves a decisive advantage and slaughters like this make it less likely either side will come to terms. I also think every massacre like this just makes it more likely that the west will be more forthcoming in supplying military equipment to Ukraine. If it keeps up I don't even rule out one or more western nations becoming actively involved. Things like this can change public opinion rapidly and that is what will drive the political and military actions to be even more overt.

First, I plainly stated the fault lies with Putin.

1. Perhaps they would not be called Azov, but they would exist. It was called by other names before 2014. Just like in Croatia, these neo-Nazi guys came crawling out of the woodwork in 1991. They and their political parties grew in strength and popularity from then on out.* True, they got a boost in 2014. But if we want to argue about "if this hadn't happened, then that wouldn't have happened": If the US had acted more wisely back in the 1990s, Putin probably wouldn't be president. If the neo-Nazi factions had not been active at Maidan (and before), there would not have been the violence and the counter-Maidan. If Victoria Nuland, much to the Germans' horror, had not insisted on installing Yatsenyuk of the Svoboda Party (look it up), things may not have got so out of hand back in 2014.** We could go and on with the if, if, ifs until Doomsday.

2. It would not surprise me if Putin (even though he himself is a thug and murderer) severely punishes those those guys who went on that butcher's rampage in Bucha if it turns out to be true, and it looks like something very wicked took place there. They besmirched the honor of Russia. Perhaps not. We will likely not know, or it will be years before we do.

Ukraine is better off without Azov. They're not a danger just to Russians. They and their fellow travellers have made noises about wanting to take out various elected officials for almost as long as Ukraine has has elections. Granted, many Ukrainian leaders have been deeply flawed and corrupt, but ... such does not make for stable government. And they get up to all kinds of nasty stuff besides killing ethnic Russians like harrassing other minorities (Greeks, Roma, gays, etc) and journalists, etc. Oligarchs use them for dirty work, too. Also, they gross out the West, or did. But they will survive, even after losing many members in Mariupol. That's not the only place they are. And they will attract more members.

This had already escalated before Bucha, with both sides committing war crimes, the great majority by the Russians according to Western media. This is just another cycle which will beget yet another. Of course this will drive more outrage from the West, but I hope the West can exercise proper restraint while giving Ukraine meaningful assistance from outside. Nuclear powers are involved. This ain't Libya or Kosovo or Iraq. It's not even a proper proxy war, as one of the belligerents is Russia itself. We don't want to see Putin win, but there must be a graceful way out for Putin, or ... who knows?

On the bright side, for so long as Putin remains in power, perhaps he will remember some more history lessons: while it's true that Russia is legendary for its prowess at defeating invading armies (Charles XII, Napoleon, Hitler), for over a century it sucked lemons when it ventured outside its borders to attack a determined enemy (Japan 1905, East Prussia 1914, Poland 1921, Finland 1939, Afghanistan 1989). Maybe he'll stay home after this.

Also agree there will be no peace deal until business has been settled by force of arms in the East. I wish it were not so, but it is what it is.

*This was written in 2011 about the rise of Svoboda and friends, from which Azov emerged:

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/136008/commentary_56.pdf

**Salon leans way left, staunch Obama and Biden supporter, so it's quite something they were alarmed at Nuland being appointed by the Biden administration (they leave out Yatsenyuk's party affiliation, though, as it's just *too* embarrassing):

Who is Victoria Nuland? A really bad idea as a key player in Biden's foreign policy team

A Cold War true believer who sabotaged Obama's foreign policy, Nuland is a huge risk at the State Department

www.salon.com

 

[ngatimozart]

BBC report on what it alleges is possible evidence of Russian war crimes outside Kyiv after Ukraine retook Russian occupied territory. WARNING: Video contains burnt dead bodies.

Another BBC report on the impact that the war has had on the Russian elite 331 Guards Parachute Regiment and their families.

A DW report on Russia's mercenary group, Wagner Group.

WW2 weapons being used in the current war.

UK Channel 4 News update on the war.

 

[seaspear]

I think you're missing the point. If the will of the Crimean people is to reunite with Ukraine in a post-Putin Russia, that's pretty clear cut and the west can support that. But what happens if it's not? Locals met Russian troops in '14 with Russian flags and celebration in the streets. It would be a significant departure for this to reverse itself. It's not impossible but consider the demographics of Crimea among other things.



A very silly claim. Russia has no problems with the rights of indigenous minorities. I suggest you read up on why Russia is called a Federation. I suggest you consider what it means when ethnic Russians, clearly the second largest ethnic group in modern day Ukraine, easily as indigenous to southern Ukraine as Ukrainians are (both settled the area around the same time) are excluded from being considered indigenous to Ukraine. Add this to the above considerations on the rise of nationalism.

there are enough articles suggesting why the Crimean vote is illegal under international law , even Chechnya was not allowed to secede by Russia after a vote so

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

www.reuters.com

Why the Crimean Referendum Is Illegitimate

The vote by some Crimean citizens to join Russia violates Ukrainian and international law and could come back to haunt Moscow, its primary backer, says CFR’s John Bellinger.

www.cfr.org

Crimea referendum: Voters 'back Russia union'

Election officials say 95.5% of Crimean voters back joining Russia in a disputed referendum, with half the ballots counted.

www.bbc.com

2014 Crimean status referendum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

.

 

[ngatimozart]

I think you're missing the point. If the will of the Crimean people is to reunite with Ukraine in a post-Putin Russia, that's pretty clear cut and the west can support that. But what happens if it's not? Locals met Russian troops in '14 with Russian flags and celebration in the streets. It would be a significant departure for this to reverse itself. It's not impossible but consider the demographics of Crimea among other things.

The Crimean vote was illegal under international law because Putin illegally annexed Crimea and any votes, plebiscites, referendums etc., amongst the Crimean population for incorporation into Russia are null and void. The same goes for the rebel regions in Eastern Ukraine because Russian forces were instrumental in the illegal activities there. If such referendums are desired by the local population, then they should be held under UN auspices with Ukrainian government agreement, because those territories are sovereign Ukrainian territory, regardless of what Putin says.

 

[seaspear]

To add a bit further on indigenous rights under Russian law the Tartars are not so recognised as indigenous

The Indigenous World 2021: Russian Federation - IWGIA - International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs

Indigenous Peoples are not recognised by Russian legislation as such; however, Art. 67 of the current constitution guarantees the rights of “Indigenous Minority Peoples”, (literally: “Indigenous small-numbered peoples”). The 1999 Federal Law “On Guarantees of the Rights of the Indigenous...

www.iwgia.org

 

[Vivendi]

A survey on how various groups are perceived in various countries. In Russia 18% had an "unfavorable" view of Jews, in Ukraine 14%. In Russia 75% had a "favorable" view of Jews, in Ukraine 83%. Views on minority groups across Europe | Pew Research Center

Several investigations have identified links between several Russian-backed groups in Eastern Ukraine, including the Wagner group, and right-wing extremism.

Adam Hadley, the executive director of Tech Against Terrorism, a London-based initiative supported by the UN counter-terrorism executive directorate, said: “Given Putin’s absurd demands for the ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, we suggest he should first root out neo-Nazis in his own ranks before pointing the finger at others.”
Russian mercenaries in Ukraine linked to far-right extremists | The far right | The Guardian

Unfortunately there is a high probability that war crimes will be committed by both sides. However, there are indications that Russia uses certain war crimes as part of their strategy, meaning that it is organized. I have not yet seen such claims regarding Ukraine, that does not means that it has not happened.

Jack Watling on Bucha and Russian warfare:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510391427427147778

How Many More Crimes Can Putin Commit Before the World Calls Him A War Criminal? | Justice in Conflict

Mick Ryan on the Russian army, and his thoughts on civilian-military matters:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510389051895193602

 

[Vivendi]

In September 2021, Russia adopted a state technical standard for digging and maintaining mass graves during wartime. It took effect on Feb 1st 2022.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510169194465271812

It's difficult to understand that a Russian military that clearly had planned a cheap and easy victory and with no indications of any planning in case of failure, would have a need for an Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) on how to dig and maintain mass graves...

 

[QEDdeq]

Russians trying to take Kiev with a blitz attack was an ambitious but very risky move, the Ukrainians had good intelligence and they waited in ambush. On that road from Chernobil down to Gostomel-Bucha-Irpin the Russians had a lot of losses. The fact that they committed the paratroopers on Gostomel in day 1 obliged them to push fast in order to link up. That led to a lot of losses. If they have succeeded with their attack on Kiev maybe a long attrition war would have been avoided. Although I doubt they would have ever succeeded a fast victory there since Kiev would have been defended street by street.

Now things are stuck and personally I think there is a long war ahead that will bring pain on civilians, economies in Europe and around the world and that will leave both Ukraine and Russia in a dire situation while Europe will probably enter a deep recession. The inflation in some European countries is already at 15% while the more realistic indicator of consumer prices shows price increases of 25-30% in particular for food and basics. Countries like US and UK are less affected by the war, but continental Europe will pay a huge economic price, not to mention that small weapons will start to penetrate through the borders and that's a serious problem politically. It happened during the Yugoslav wars in the 90's, it will happen again. The food crisis and the migration wave it could trigger from Africa and the Middle East is another topic but I won't go into that.

Russia will most likely succeed in capturing Donbass although by the looks of it we can expect another fierce defence and mounting casualties on both sides. So they will try to keep that as well as the territorial elements of the South is already holding. But then what? Will Ukraine accept to give away those territories? From what I see we are slipping into further escalation, Western nations say they want to provide heavier weapons, long range arty, tanks, missiles, drones. All weapons of high destruction potential. Russia wont stay under this type of fire without trying to eliminate the threath. And that's how the conflict escalates further. I see the British continue to put fuel on the fire by saying they would supply anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. If Russian large ships will be sunk this will give the Russians enough justification to destroy transport infrastructure in Ukraine to slow down weapons making their way to the front which would leave the country in an even deeper economic disaster, especially after losing their industrial refineries, their steel industry and loads of military infrastructure as well. Not to mention the collateral damage to other types of infrastructure.

All in all this is a huge mess and if the Russians have clearly miscalculated their initial military plan it seems to me that continental Europe has seriously miscalculated the sanctions and economic pressure at the cost of own economic losses. Russians will not yield to sanctions, Putin has higher ratings than before the war and internal protests inside Russia are very limited. China is scared of strategic imbalance so they wont let go of the Russians despite not liking the ongoing war and economic instability caused by it globally. They just can't afford doing that knowing there is a new military alliance directed at them.

So how do we get out of this? Honestly I don't know... the only realistic way is if Ukrainians and Western European countries like France and Germany decide to talk straight to Putin sort of like in the Minsk agreements, make some real concessions this time around and do some kind of reset of relations with Russia. But I doubt US and UK have an interest in that, for them the game is much bigger, they need a long war in order to push for regime change and instability in Russia but meanwhile Ukraine (and to a lesser extend Europe) is paying a huge price in the process. But as the war goes on and atrocities are committed by both sides, chances for something like this to happen are getting smaller and smaller. Also Scholtz is clearly not Merkel when it comes to diplomacy with the Russians while Macron doesn't seem to have an effect.

 

[the concerned]

I don't know what type of peace people want as far as I am concerned Ukraine never asked for any of this. All of this is on Putin he can arc on about the donbass region but he created that problem when he INVADED Crimea period.

 

[STURM]

All of this is on Putin he can arc on about the donbass region but he created that problem when he INVADED Crimea period.

Nonetheless the Ukrainian leadership has indicated its willingness to make some concessions [after a referendum and with firm guarantees which would involved external parties] and we can only hope that it leads to an end to hostilities and people dying.

Whether anyone will be held accountable of course remains to seen.

This BBC video contains gruesome images.

It's difficult to understand that a Russian military that clearly had planned a cheap and easy victory

Do we know it was a Russian military which made such a major blunder and assumption or a political leadership which made that blunder and assumption and forced the Russian military to go to war in a certain way?