NZDF General discussion thread

[MrConservative]

New Zealand would have to step up and have direct capacity building involvement in Niue, The Cook Islands, and the Tokelau's as they are part of the Realm of New Zealand who has responsibility for their Defence and External Relations, as well as under the 1962 NZ-Samoa Treaty of Friendship, which left New Zealand upon invitation to protect Samoa.

I agree with Aussie Digger that the focus should initially be on HADR and SASO ready reaction under the auspices of CHP VIII of the UN charter. I also believe that a development of an air component for local EZZ patrols within jurisdictions would be valuable as well, building on the Guardian Class capability.

We do have Pacific thread so much of the detailed finessing could be explored there.

 

[KiwiRob]

I believe that many of my female veteran sisters and the women currently serving in NZDF would find your remark condescending and offensive. In fact I have some left wing women friends who definitely would find that remark of yours sexist, condescending and offensive, and that's just the start. FYI those left wing women never served in any military. They are feminists to boot.

This comment is anything but condescending and offensive, NZ society has high levels of equality, this is the result, not many nations can say that the top political and judicial posts are all held by women, we should be proud of this. The vast majority of women aren't that interested in defense, that's just a fact you won't be able to argue against. Knowing some women who served doesn't negate my comment, they are a tiny minority of women in NZ.

You accuse me of having a military bias, however unlike you I have served so that gives me background, experience, some expertise and understanding. I also have a tertiary education outside of the military which gives me other skills. However because I am military doesn't make me a war maker or one who is a neocon. I am far from it, but I do have an understanding of the risks and dangers that NZ faces. I also know the costs suffering and damages that war brings and inflicts upon people. My own family have experienced it.

Of course you have a pro military bias, where did I say you were a war maker or neocon, what I think your bias does is amplify your perception of the threats to NZ.

 

[MrConservative]

I suggest we all move on as this has all been a bit of a distraction.

 

[StingrayOZ]

As for wishing for more military representation in government, be careful what you wish for. Jacqui Lambie, Jim Molan and Rex Patrick are all ex adf in Australia. They have political views that vary, widely and are pretty much, crazy, even if well meaning. None are really at the center core belief of why we need a well funded ADF (although all three would support that). The military generally reflects the society in a democracy, so unsurprisingly, you get all sorts of views. There are of course a wide number of ex-military in politics in Australia (What does Anzac Day mean to Australia's ex-military MPs?) with more at state and local levels.

Australia's drive to improve its military, is a fairly new thing, and also generally runs in almost a cycle. The 80's and 90's were generally terrible periods for the ADF. However, Australia's "mission" came into complete focus. When we realized allies weren't away going to solve our problems, and there are plenty of hairy situations we can get ourselves into. Sometimes a bit of disagreement and unalignment and divide, can eventually help clarify purpose. When you realise your weakness and exposure.

NZ defence budget IMO seemed to have turned a corner. Hopefully this times with Australia's cycle.

New Zealand's defence budget returns to growth

New Zealand has announced a strong increase in its defence budget for 2021–22, reflecting the country’s robust economic recovery to the Covid-19 pandemic.

www.janes.com

As we have seen, even in countries that do want to spend more, increasing spending effectively is actually a hard thing to do and requires lots of long term planning. With some of the many projects Aus is heading into, there will be more options to expand NZ capability.
I think NZ is moving into a better position than it has been.

You don't just wake up the next morning with 12 submarines, 15 destroyers and fully formed 5th gen airforce. Any new additional platform has manning issues, any bigger platform has high acquisition costs. It takes timing and planning and commitment to build a force.

What there needs to be is some sort of effort not to repeat past mistakes, and some sort of longer term plan of where you want to be.

 

[StingrayOZ]

A bit from ASPI on ANZUS particularly on NZ component.

ANZUS at 70: ANZUS and New Zealand | The Strategist

A literal reading of the treaty suggests that ANZUS is a triangle. According to the all-important fourth article, each one of the three parties ‘recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on any ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

The view from Australia, the recent acquisition of the P8 is pretty significant. Its been a long time since anyone in Australia had a reason to call NZ assistance in a coalition mission, particularly for an air asset.

There’s a real limit to how far Wellington will want its alliance commitments to Australia couched in Indo-Pacific terms, even though there are some NZDF capabilities (especially the forthcoming P-8 Poseidon aircraft) that could be useful to a coalition effort. But in between the defence of Australia and maritime combat in East Asia is a part of the regional real estate that could be the real test of New Zealand’s alliance commitments.

The South Pacific is where Australia and New Zealand are most intensely united in seeking a favourable equilibrium of power. Australian forces are very unlikely to engage the People’s Liberation Army on their own in a Taiwan Strait contingency. But in the South Pacific, a direct Australia–China clash, with or without the help of America (which delegates a great deal to Canberra’s leadership), could be more conceivable.

Should it get into warlike difficulty with China in a tussle for influence over Papua New Guinea’s future, for example, Australia wouldn’t just expect New Zealand’s help. Canberra would be likely to demand it. And should New Zealand demur, a crisis would emerge in trans-Tasman alliance relations that could make the mid-1980s look like a cakewalk.

I notice this doesn't really touch on the five powers arrangement either, of which, some wonder if NZ would contribute, or contribute in a meaningful way.

But again, there is optimism about strengthening capabilities for the future.

 

[Gooey]

A bit from ASPI on ANZUS particularly on NZ component.

But again, there is optimism about strengthening capabilities for the future.

Nice article thanks StingrayOZ. I don't see the optimism though, I'm afraid. Indeed the 1980's ANZUS nuclear crisis may well be a walk in the park, compared to future NZ-OZ issues.

One of the reasons that NZ may not join OZ in a future Sth Pacific confrontation is that it has no warfighting capability against a near par adversary. The second (apologies, another global claim alert) is the NZ political systems' inability to: look outside of Aoteroa; why CCP might be a regional threat; and, business's/Treasuries obsession with not challenging China.

 

[MrConservative]

The second (apologies, another global claim alert) is the NZ political systems' inability to: look outside of Aoteroa; why CCP might be a regional threat; and, business's/Treasuries obsession with not challenging China.

Very accurate assumption. What drives a lot of this is that on the Labour - Greens side of the political spectrum there is a certain long standing popularist antipathy towards the US that is fairly deep-seated built up over the last 5 decades, placing pressure on their leadership to keep both sides, the PRC and US, at arms length by pretending they can keep "Aotearoa independent" through a deliberate geo-strategic invisibility and ä "Little Aotearoa" worldview, on the National - ACT side of parliament there is pressure coming from the major players in the business sector, mainly Dairy, Viticulture, Hort, Forestry who see China as their cash cow, therefore the nations cash cow, and influence the National Party in particular about not doing anything to stuff up their easy market access. The dumbest line I ever heard was Fonterra board member tell a Minister about 10 years ago when discussing Chinese trade that what is good for Fonterra is good for the country. Both approaches are not sustainable over the medium term.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Nice article thanks StingrayOZ. I don't see the optimism though, I'm afraid. Indeed the 1980's ANZUS nuclear crisis may well be a walk in the park, compared to future NZ-OZ issues.

One of the reasons that NZ may not join OZ in a future Sth Pacific confrontation is that it has no warfighting capability against a near par adversary. The second (apologies, another global claim alert) is the NZ political systems' inability to: look outside of Aoteroa; why CCP might be a regional threat; and, business's/Treasuries obsession with not challenging China.

Certainly its a concern.. But hey, 4 x P8 is a nice purchase. Its ~30% of Australia's capacity, on the same platform. It can be used in a variety of operations. Its the kind of platform I could see NZ contributing to an AU lead mission.

 

[Gooey]

StingrayOZ.
You are absolutely correct. I was glass 90% empty the other day. NZDF does have 1 modern war-fighting asset. We should be grateful for small mercies (apologies for sounding all snarky here).

 

[Gibbo]

StingrayOZ.
You are absolutely correct. I was glass 90% empty the other day. NZDF does have 1 modern war-fighting asset. We should be grateful for small mercies (apologies for sounding all snarky here).

And with a 1st class SAS & 2 reasonably capable (at long last) Frigates we still have a niche combat capability in each of the 3 services... bare-bones minimum effort of course but hey!

 

[ngatimozart]

I saw our MIA Defence Minister on the TV this arvo. I just about took a photo to remind myself what he looked like. He wasn't talking about Defence matters.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

I saw our MIA Defence Minister on the TV this arvo. I just about took a photo to remind myself what he looked like. He wasn't talking about Defence matters.

??? we have Defence Minister??? more importantly though... what's a TV?

What was he blabbing about or did he have his other hat on?

 

[ngatimozart]

??? we have Defence Minister??? more importantly though... what's a TV?

What was he blabbing about or did he have his other hate on?

The TV is the idiot box in the mess that usually loafs by the bulkhead. Theoretically we have a Minister of Defence but like most droggies he's permanently loafing in his bunk. He had his other hat on; he was on the Jacindarella and Ashley show.

 

[aussienscale]

The TV is the idiot box in the mess that usually loafs by the bulkhead. Theoretically we have a Minister of Defence but like most droggies he's permanently loafing in his bunk. He had his other hat on; he was on the Jacindarella and Ashley show.

You guys would kill for a Peter Dutton right now, he has been very active since taking the job, but more importantly he has brought back confidence and pride for our serving members !! Still a long way to go, but he is certainly heading in the right direction !!

Mind you he does have the backing as well within Government !!

 

[ngatimozart]

There has been another terrorist attack in NZ. This afternoon an individual attacked people in an Auckland supermarket with a knife wound six, three seriously. He was a known radical and had been under intense police and Special Tactics Group surveillance. Apparently he was surveillance sensitive. The police STG shot him dead within 60 seconds of the disturbances starting in the supermarket. He was a Sri Lankan who migrated to NZ 10 years ago and came to the attention of the security services 5 years ago because of his Daesh inspired radical beliefs. Unfortunately he undertook his lone wolf attack today.

Auckland mall attack: Isis-inspired terrorist stabs six shoppers at New Lynn Countdown supermarket before being shot dead by police; Jacinda Ardern labels attack 'despicable' - NZ Herald

 

[MrConservative]

There has been another terrorist attack in NZ. This afternoon an individual attacked people in an Auckland supermarket with a knife wound six, three seriously. He was a known radical and had been under intense police and Special Tactics Group surveillance. Apparently he was surveillance sensitive. The police STG shot him dead within 60 seconds of the disturbances starting in the supermarket. He was a Sri Lankan who migrated to NZ 10 years ago and came to the attention of the security services 5 years ago because of his Daesh inspired radical beliefs. Unfortunately he undertook his lone wolf attack today.

Auckland mall attack: Isis-inspired terrorist stabs six shoppers at New Lynn Countdown supermarket before being shot dead by police; Jacinda Ardern labels attack 'despicable' - NZ Herald

Full credit to the professionalism of the STG guys and the intelligence services. This could have been so much more tragic.

 

[ngatimozart]

Full credit to the professionalism of the STG guys and the intelligence services. This could have been so much more tragic.

Definitely. The surveillance team and STG couldn't get any closer to the subject without blowing the OP, but to hear the journos going on about the 60 seconds it took the STG to eliminate the threat one thinks the journos believe that surveillance OPs are like on the movies. I think that the Police Commissioner had repeat himself three times before the journos moved on.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Definitely. The surveillance team and STG couldn't get any closer to the subject without blowing the OP, but to hear the journos going on about the 60 seconds it took the STG to eliminate the threat one thinks the journos believe that surveillance OPs are like on the movies. I think that the Police Commissioner had repeat himself three times before the journos moved on.

I get sick of hearing journos asking the same question over and over and... over and over again...

Anyhoo. I thought 60 seconds was bloody quick from getting the go... to it being all over...

 

[Arclighy]

Definitely. The surveillance team and STG couldn't get any closer to the subject without blowing the OP, but to hear the journos going on about the 60 seconds it took the STG to eliminate the threat one thinks the journos believe that surveillance OPs are like on the movies. I think that the Police Commissioner had repeat himself three times before the journos moved on.

Well done to all NZ security personnel who acted with courage and professionalism in dealing with this terrorist situation. Journalists? Sometimes you can have a room full of them and still only come up with not more than half a brain.

 

[Rob c]

Well done to all NZ security personnel who acted with courage and professionalism in dealing with this terrorist situation. Journalists? Sometimes you can have a room full of them and still only come up with not more than half a brain.

At times a lot of journalists would come under the old saying of "if you gave them another working brain, it would be very lonely!"