At one of the Defence Services Asia exhibitions in the early 2000’s a company from Belarus was also marketing a towed decoy for use on Fulcrums.
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Indonesian Aero News
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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I see in other forum someone put this infographic from Semar Sentinel consultating firm. Then I check their Linkedin page, which put them as consulting firm specialised in Political Risk, Defence, Aerospace and Security sectors. The LinkedIn put them as Consulting firm headquarters in Singapore but seems many of their staff are Indonesian.
I looked on their infographics and so far seems related to what official media info from MinDef as I put on my previous posts.
On the Tankers and Transport, MRTT and C-130J got upper hand. Airbus A400M effort seems not getting interest from end users (TNI-AU) and their plan to sell it through SOE ministry seems not getting traction with the changes of Minister.
There are analysts on MPA and AEWC but one the thing they put is related to all, the budget being relocate thus they don't see except AAR/Tankers (and I guess C-130J) that can be procure before 2024.
This related to infographics on budget or Fighters which only USD 1.6 bio (this actually on lower end, as my sources in Bapenas say their calculation can be up to around USD 2.5 bio), however the point's budget for Fighters seems will get more priority thus they will relocate budget from support assets to there.
Seems they're also in line to what I've put before. With COVID situation and the money needed to handle them including mass vaccination, there will put much cut on other sectors including Defense to cover it. Thus all the assets being talk in latest TNI RAPIM (High Level Meeting), will need to be choose which one can be realistically finances.
In the end it's just another assessment, but what I like to emphasize ; the budget is under stress and eventough there's more commitment to Defense it still need some prioritizing. Thus there will be limit what they can be achieve under MEF. The last term MEF2 still has a lot off Gap that has not been covered. Thus this 2020-2024 MEF3, for me with the budget stress, will also have difficulty to be achieve overall. This term they have to cover both Gap from MEF2 and overall MEF3. Something that I don't see they can achieve overall as planned.
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Sandhi Yudha
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Thank you for sharing, if it is true, and the Indonesian government proceeds with the procurement of the aerial refueling aircrafts and transport aircrafts, then both the C-130J and A330 MRTT are logic choices in my opinion.
For more than 6 years almost spending nothing on new defence equipment, causing a huge gap between SBY's MEF-planning and the real situation and because of that a deteriorating armed forces.
And now in the middle of the COVID-madness, giving the impression to take defence seriously, but in the end improvements will be quite limited because of the budget stress...... smart move.
But now something else...
Paskhasau recently tested the Malyuk bullpup assault rifle from Ukraina. It seems to be built around the core of the AK-74 with an exterior inspired by the TAR-21.
Here is a link of the video, and as we can see, the cameraman is that distracted, that he doesnt zoom in on the weapon, but on something else...
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Yea..another small projects..how our bureaucracy (whether civilian or Military) like multiple small projects..
I thought this administration already adamant no more Import Automatic Gun, and all Armed Forces and Police must uses Locally build ones..Well enough for my Cynical ranting..
If we go back to my post #1,881 on that CNBC Indonesia video, the Air Force spokesman talk about their priority of MRCA, UCAV, C-130J, MRTT, AEW&C and Ground Intercept Radar, as Assets they want to have before 2024.
That assessment above put MRTT and C-130J as having more priority traction. UCAV seems the project of MALE UAV of DI and LAPAN/BPPT. At least the media information put those three have priority traction.
On Fighters/MRCA program, this's going to be big question. Are Rafale still getting priority (as seems our current Defense Minister like to put his preference on Dasault products), or US ones? Base on Budget availability, I do have 'doubt' they can get approval for both F-15E and Rafale. Unless they cut other projects.
That will be Inter-Services squabbling on budget allocation, and some compromise will be taken. Big other items are Navy Frigates and Next Batch of submarine. Army wants their heavy helicopters and more Armoured Vehicles for their plan to transfer all the Infantry toward Mobile Infantry units. Historical trend, Army and Navy usually get more priority then AF.
I have put before the talk that I got from my Bapenas colleague. They're only calculate Fighters budget based from previous plan of Su-35 and F-16. USD 1.6 bio as Bapenas put on their official calculation usually in lower end calculation (as my colleague confirm it). However it will be not much more than that, unless other services and Air Force it self agree to give their other projects budget for this MRCA.
So if Prabowo's able to push 36 Rafale or whatever the number of F-15E as plan, we can see some other projects will be cut. It can be varied from AEW&C, MPA, and reduction in numbers of new Frigates, or Army Rotary Wings plan. It also can be from IFX budget (we pull out). All this to give/relocate the budget to whatever MRCA being choose. That's why I said F-16V or Refurbished F-16 still possibility, if other services don't want to give up their budget for this MRCA as plan (Rafale and F-15E).
Add: I put another Info Graphics from that Semar Sentinel LinkedIn page. This actually first page of two on their Fighters assessment. The second page I already put in previous post. I put it only to shown their 'informal' assessment on LM has 'strong' agent in Indonesia. Lobby power is important, and so far Dasault lobby are more to Prabowo's circle. LM still has strong lobby in MinDef and AF.
What I'm getting at is to add my point from above paragraph. From Budget point of view, F-16V still the 'fitting' choice, and this consultant (which seems have inside information from MinDef) shown LM have strong 'lobby'. So potential for F-16 still there based on Budget availability and 'Lobby' power. After all LM and Airbus due have long relationship with Indonesian Defense circle.
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Sandhi Yudha
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The Malyuk assault rifle test can be just a demonstration during a marketing tour of the manufacturer. Korpaskhas also got a small batch of SAR-21 from CIS/ST Kinetics as a gift for evaluation in the past. These assault rifles are still in limited use.
I dont expect that the Malyuk will be ordered, although it is common that elite forces have access to multiple rifles from foreign and domestic manufacturers, new assault rifles do not have really a high priority at the moment.
Personally i also think that only a part of the wishlist becomes reality. It will be already great if only the most urgent requirements (C-130J and A330 MRTT to replace the 50 years old C-130B and single KC-130B, and 1 squadron of F-16V to replace the F-5s) will be ordered AND delivered.
I dont expect that the Malyuk will be ordered, although it is common that elite forces have access to multiple rifles from foreign and domestic manufacturers, new assault rifles do not have really a high priority at the moment.
Personally i also think that only a part of the wishlist becomes reality. It will be already great if only the most urgent requirements (C-130J and A330 MRTT to replace the 50 years old C-130B and single KC-130B, and 1 squadron of F-16V to replace the F-5s) will be ordered AND delivered.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Top! Ekspor Pesawat Buatan RI CN-235 Dibiayai LPEI Rp 354 M
LPEI Biayai Ekspor Pesawat senilai Rp 354 Miliar
www.cnbcindonesia.com
This's article talk about Indonesia Eximbank provide financing to Senegal on the CN-235 export. It's not unusual, even it is a necessity. Aerospace business whether for Civilian or Military depends on how big you (as producers) can provide or arrange financing. The bigger your financing or the preferable financing term that you can provide, the more chances your products be chosen. Other factors will also determine, but Financing will always be one main determinating factor.
I put this, cause I still see many in Indonesian media or online sites talk about building Aerospace Industry or other High Tech Defense Industry only as the matter of government support on RnD, helping them get Tech access, providing Right Partners, and everything will be smooth ride.
After all this year's, there always those whose still blame foreign influence like IMF on why Habibie projects got cancelled. They simply did not learn that what Habibie builds are not financially viable business (at that time and condition). Habibie spend most of budget on projects without building infrastructure on how to sell them in the market, without building sufficient support structure that can provide Financing and after sales service.
Aerospace and High Tech Industry is expensive business. Moreover it's a business, thus despite how good your products is, it will not be enough to guarantee it can compete in the market. We can see how Bombardier (as example) got in Financial trouble due to over Investment (one of the reasons). Somehow those Indonesian 'analysts' and their supporters, don't see many Aerospace and High Tech Defense companies that go down even when they already have relative good products.
Somehow those people refuse to see that. They still talking and try to campaign on gaining public support on pouring more Investment to DI, without see what real situation on the company. Government now push Indonesia Eximbank to provide and arrange financing, cause no other Institution wants to provide financing. No Banks or Financial Institution whether local or foreign ones, wants to deal with DI without Government back up. However the government support has the limits.
Indonesia can't provide Financing support like China do on supporting their Aerospace products. We already see how Chinese financial Institution even become shareholder to Indonesian Airline and provide financing in order to put ARJ-21 in International market.
Something to think on this talk of self sufficient on Aerospace and Defense Industries. Can Indonesia local market including the Military provide enough demand ? Can Government have enough budget or other incentives to create the demand ?
There will be products that need to be choose, there will be capacity that need to build in phases to give learning curve.
There's no jump in learning curve, there's no jump in capacity building, and more importantly there're no jump in building Aerospace and Defense Industries to become viable business that can be attractive for Financing.
Building them can't only depends on Government support and Subsidies, they have to prove themselves that they are already reach their own learning curve, and build step by step base on that.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Ive seen the RVV-AE(R-77), R-73 and Kh-31 hanging under a Sukhoi, but this is the first time i see the Kh-29TE.
Two Su-30MK2 during a training mission....
Two Su-30MK2 during a training mission....
Wait a minute... did they put the target on their own hangar (with another Sukhoi nearby), armed the missile, and practice locking on to it? Is that not dangerous?
No, you can test the sensor without arming the missile.
Do you know it was actually a live missile? Not a telemetry model, captive carry or similar?
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
The Aircraft did stop just before take off and ground crew did something and a note come up saying Arming Missile. I don’t know if what they were doing was arming it but it seems to me to make sense that is when you would arm a Missile.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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This's video already out and circulate for couple of days more. So far the information in media shown that Sq 11 doing some testing on the Missile. Seems they're checking the condition of the Missile targeting system. Thus I believe it's a live Missile.
Ok I stand corrected.
Well I have to say, if that is a live missile, with a live warhead being armed and locked on civilian targets, that seems incredibly cavalier of them...
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
It can also be a round/imitation missile specially for training, without warhead and motor, but with seeker and arming points, to practice the whole procedure.
As far as i know american/NATO missiles for training have a blue band, i dont know about Russian missiles.
Sadly there is no one here from TNI-AU among the DefenceTalk members.
As far as i know american/NATO missiles for training have a blue band, i dont know about Russian missiles.
Sadly there is no one here from TNI-AU among the DefenceTalk members.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Agree, we can only guess on the behavior of their training. TNI-AU bit secretive on the details of Russian Missiles they're procuring. Also Russia unlike US don't have kind of DCSA announcement on their military export program. At least from DCSA announcement we know TNI-AU procured training/dummy version on each US origin Missiles they have.
Just like you say, the differentiation on Russian Missiles whether live or dummy for practice is not as clear cut as Western made (at least that seems so with inventory in TNI-AU as video shown).
Unless there's specific mention from TNI-AU, most of us can only guess. If this's live missile, then it should be some procedures that prevents it to go live accidentally. However, I'm not familiar with Russian procedure.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Kris FB page shown pictures from video of Air Power workshop conducted by TNI-AU today. During the presentation they shown the Foreign Financing budget for 2020-2024 that shown total USD 20+ bio allocation which AF got the biggest chunk of USD 8.6 bio, Navy of USD 7.3 bio and Army of USD 4.4 bio. Thus this's not changing from the information that already circulate on local.media and online sources.
This budget separate from Domestic financing which mostly for domestic suppliers (IDR financing). However considering most of advance assets still can't supply by domestic suppliers, then it's usually much smaller.
Add:
The way budget work, if there're some procurement that already been budgeted in 2015-2019 (last term) procurement, but the process being delayed. Then the budget can be carry over to this term, but still using last term post. In such if there's procurement of last term being carry over to this term (last term foreign financing budget represent by blue line graphic on second picture), they can be (theoriticaly) used on top this term budget.
Thus if Su-35 budget already being calculate and set in last term, then they can be added on top USD 1.6 bio this term budget. This if only Su-35 USD 1.2 bio budget already being set during last term cycle. If that true, then MinDef actually have USD 2.8 bio foreign financing budget that they can use for Fighters.
Again, from my Bapenas and Ministry of Finance colleagues, more than a year ago already talk about Su-35 and F-16V as type of Fighters they're calculating. So if current MinDef wants to use that for another type of Fighter (say Rafale), they can do that. This off course back to whether last term budget already included budget for Su-35 (which then can be carry over).
Question now, is there foreign financing unused budget that can be carry over from last term cycle ?
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Sandhi Yudha
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Thank you for sharing.
So $8,4 Milyar goes to TNI-AU, divided in
- 0,3 training aircraft (fixed and rotary wing)
Does this include the budget for the last 3 KT-1B and the upgrade of the T-50i?
- 0,9 armament
This will hopefully not all be spend on dumb freefall bombs.
- 2,1 radars and airdefence missiles
More NASAMS-batteries?
- 0,3 UAVs
More CH-4Bs?
- 0,2 helicopters
Just 200 million, probably additional numbers of a type already in use, EC725?
- 1,5 Transport aircrafts
Hopefully enough for 5 C-130Js
- 1,5 Special Mission Aircrafts.
I thought AEW and MPA were not on the priority list.
- 1,6 Fighters
If the $1,2 for the Su-35 is not added to this 1,6, will this be enough for a full squadron of F-16Vs?
How about the A330 MRTT, or do they mean inflight refueling tankers with "special mission aircrafts"?
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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That's my question too. However I suspect it will be lump to that USD 1.5 bio foreign financing budget of Transport. I do suspect that from 3 sq of C-130 that they already created, 2 of that will be equip with existing C-130H and 1 with C-130J. For MRTT it's all depends on how they got the A330-200. If they take two from ex Airliners (like ex Garuda, as Garuda in the process to replace some of A330-200 with A330-800 NG), They could have enough budget for overall life time support too. They plan 4 MRTT, but looking on the budget (considering now Bapenas and Ministry of Finance push all ministries including MinDef for overall multiyears planning), I suspect they can only got 2 at most untill 2024.
The rest, well still anyone guess. I believe in the video that I've post before, the AF spokesman talk on AEW but not MPA (he described it as flying radar platform for public audiences). Thus the special mission aircraft is part of priority. However if MinDef decided to push more fighters, that budget I do suspect can be reallocate rather than from Transport. Transport already part of two main priority with fighters (the Parliament push them on that).
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Sandhi Yudha
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Yes, i also wonder about the $4,4 M for TNI-AD, are the MV-22Bs included in this budget, or will it be used for other things? I can not believe it will all be used for some Pandur APCs and MLRS-projects.