Cont'd from discussion started in the RNZN thread. This could take several posts to include several different points, supporting data, and queries.
Attempting to extrapolate current or historical outputs as a sole determinant of production forecasting is not the methodology professional analysts use. You have to factor in the key drivers of that production which in India's case is 1. close to another China sized economic expansion out to 2050 and 2. the strategic necessity for it not be a client state when it comes to shipping and the SLOC those ships are using.
From my POV, and I readily acknowledge that I do not have the breadth of knowledge on the subject I would like to have, or would realistically need to be considered a SME, I am looking at the question a bit differently.
First off, I consider there to be a significant difference between India being able to establish a merchant/naval shipbuilding industry sufficient to meet domestic (Indian) requirements, and India establishing a merchant/naval shipbuilding industry which can compete internationally for export orders. A national shipbuilding programme to ensure India is not a client state would not IMO be equal to the task of competing for export orders.
With respect adding Romania and the Philippines into your argument does not help your case they are not considered capable of the strategic and technical weight or possess the underlying economic and industrial performance drivers of where India is at. They are not the worlds 6th largest economy growing 7% p.a that will drive the demand on the scale that an emerging global power can achieve. They maybe too optimistic in getting their manned space program up before 2025, but the fact they are seriously pursuing it is indicative. Their Thorium MSR programme is ahead of China and Japan and has the potential to be a game changer over the next decade with respect to cheap energy.
And yet both the Philippines and Romania currently build and export ships and/or hulls on a significantly larger scale than India does. Neither the size of an economy, or the rate of growth provide any indicator that I would consider accurate to determine whether or not a nation would have success in international shipbuilding. If size of the economy was an accurate indicator, then the #11 country in ship building by tonnage for 2017, the US, should be significantly higher than it is in ranking.. Similarly, if the rate of economic growth was an accurate indicator, then why are the developed industrial nations of South Korea and Japan, the #2 and #3 nations for shipbuilding tonnage in 2017, accounting for over 54% of the shipping built in 2017 by tonnage?
The key thing you are overlooking or more likely not aware of is that there is a top down directive and support program coming from the Modi government. It is one of the of keystone policy factors as India transforms its economy from low tech - agrarian & services into a growing multifactorial tech and engineering based exporter.
The growth created by its own internal demand creates that virtuous circle for orders which expands business, increases productivity and competitiveness.
I am aware of at least some of these moves. I am also aware that in a number of areas, India still has a very long way to go. An example of this is Indian crude steel production. After some modernization efforts, India has risen to be the world's #3 producer of crude steel in 2015, at 89.58 million metric tons and with a goal of rising to the #2 spot currently held by Japan. The #4 spot in 2015 was occupied by the US at 78.92 million metric tons. What IMO is significant with the production comparison between the US and India is that over 600,0000 people are employed in the Indian steel industry, while there are over 142,000 people employed in the US steel industry. This would suggest that the US steel industry is nearly four times as productive per worker as the Indian steel industry. Now I do not know if this productivity comparison would also apply to another industry which involves the use of steel in large quantities (like shipbuilding) but I would not be at all surprised if it did.
Good grief - how on earth does comparing PPP data have any effect on comparing industrial output variables or the potential for what will be the worlds 3rd largest economy by 2030 and is 6th at present and then in the same sentence mention China.
I used the per capita GDP (PPP) data to compare India, Vietnam and the Philippines specifically because I could not find figures that I considered reliable for the wages for shipyard workers in those three countries, or the cost per ton for shipbuilding.
One would say that it they had ignored current events and politics over the last decade. A vessel built in an Indian yard (maybe on one of the 20 new facilities they intend to build as part of their national shipbuilding strategy) designed in association with a European naval architecture firm, that uses both some aspects from European, Israeli, UK and Canadian and possibly the US and Japan whom are very active in their defence engagement with India. A "NATO-ised" Project 17 Frigate for example. The Russian association with the INS and Indian defence procurement in general is on a decreasing trajectory as the nation pivots towards partnerships and self sufficiency. The concept of non aligned is practically dead and buried with respect to India - the rise of China has put paid to that.
So I disagree with your premise. It entirely possible in the decade after next / 2030's that India's status as a growing force in shipbuilding for commercial and naval will be cemented. Frankly you run run the risk of taking a contrarian view which can come across as patronising towards India. I accept that they may not be your intention. Countries like NZ and Australia have had friendly defence and trade relations with India and have long valued them. Post Brexit there is the UK desperate for engagement. And the US recognises the stability role and strategic hedge it plays in the southern hemisphere.
US elevates India’s defence trade status to Nato-level allies, Delhi welcomes move
I agree with President Obama that India-U.S. relations to be a 'defining partnership' for the 21st century.
This last area I will have to address at a later date, but in brief, the number of shipyards that exist is actually rather meaningless, since that provides no information on how productive those shipyards are. For instance, world shipping production peaked in 2011 at ~100 mil. GT, of which #2 S. Korea produced about 35 mil. GT from 33 yards, while China (PRC) led the world in production at just under 40 mil. GT from 232 yards, with #3 Japan producing a little under 20 mil. GT from 68 yards.
More to follow later on.
