Royal New Zealand Air Force

[Todjaeger]

I noticed an individual called Ngatimozart appear a few times in that newspapers online comments section. Have to say I was tempted as well. I even thought about organising a social media pile on from the DT tribe but this other Ngatimozart was doing well enough singlehandedly.

From iirc the upgraded C-130H(NZ) were originally meant to be leaving service in 2017-2018.

From what I recall, due to the delays in the SLEP, the in-service date was extended until 2022 - 2023, after which they would need replacement. As it is (and has been for some time) the RNZAF is getting dangerously close to running out of time. It can without too much difficulty take five years to bring a new aircraft into service from the time a selection is made and contracts signed. In fact, I would expect most of the time for it to take longer as new orders cannot be filled until production slots open up.

The potentially scary issue is that five years from now is right about the end service date for the RNZAF C-130H.

 

[40 deg south]

Wellington gossip - potentially the least reliable info source since the ouija board.

It says that Ron Mark's request is for four P-8s (as signaled), and it will get approval on Monday. But no simulator, which the Air Force really really wants, as it would avoid a lot of airtime related to training and keeping pilots current.

There is supposedly a faction in the Air Force opposed to the P-8, on the grounds that four airframes aren't enough and NZ will be unwilling to invest enough to keep the electronics current with Aust and US aircraft. Not sure if you should call them Pessimists or Realists.This faction would have preferred an option focused solely on surface search - presumably business-jet based. But the P-8 is what they will be getting.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Air bus is claiming that they will be securing an undisclosed export customer for the A400 later this year. Could this undisclosed client be New Zealand possibly???

 

[40 deg south]

Air bus is claiming that they will be securing an undisclosed export customer for the A400 later this year. Could this undisclosed client be New Zealand possibly???

Nova
Do you have a link?

That is certainly possible - the A400 on paper is a very good fit for NZ's requirements. If it wasn't for the concerns about reliability and availability, it should be a shoo-in.

On the other hand, those concerns exist, and Airbus has been making claims about having a new customer since 2015. I guess sooner or later they have to be make another sale. I think C-130 is a more likely choice for NZ, but who knows?

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Here it is

Airbus upbeat on prospect for A400M export contract this year

 

[Novascotiaboy]

I am no A400 fan and would think a KC130J x3 plus C130-J30 x 3 purchase would be a better purchase with Kawasaki C2 x 3 to replace the B757s as a more realistic purchase.

 

[Rob c]

I am no A400 fan and would think a KC130J x3 plus C130-J30 x 3 purchase would be a better purchase with Kawasaki C2 x 3 to replace the B757s as a more realistic purchase.

I am not a fan of a C 130J purchase as I don't think it moves us forward for the future as the P 8 will and while I agree that 4 P8's is short on numbers to cover the area we have around us at least the surface search only group, never got their way, that would have been a disaster. My personal feeling in regard to the FAMC is that the KC 390 , A400 and the C2 all would give an increased capability over the C 130.
In my local paper Winston was reported as supporting the P8,

 

[Novascotiaboy]

If A400 were to get the nod as the legacy Hercules replacement would its size and cost not impact the numbers purchased given the continual reduction of aircraft numbers as replacements get acquired? A400 is more in line to me as a B757 replacement able to carry the outsize and tactical loads strategic distances.

New Js offer familiarity and proven performances and are low risk. With the new features of the SOF version low and slow SAR work would be covered leaving the P8 to its intended purpose. Add in the two B350i aircraft and mid shore and offshore work is covered.

 

[RegR]

I am not a fan of a C 130J purchase as I don't think it moves us forward for the future as the P 8 will and while I agree that 4 P8's is short on numbers to cover the area we have around us at least the surface search only group, never got their way, that would have been a disaster. My personal feeling in regard to the FAMC is that the KC 390 , A400 and the C2 all would give an increased capability over the C 130.
In my local paper Winston was reported as supporting the P8,

Agreed, C130 even in it's new guise is still at the end of the day a C130 so most of our issues already identified with the current fleet will not only remain but probably compound for the next half century and that's what we have to look to, the next half century. We will solve a few problems such as reliability (half fleet usabilitys abit of a joke now), availability (dependant on numbers aqquired), serviceability (cost savings) and a marginal performance increase (operational benefits) but the literally big ticket issues will remain.

Decision makers have some hard choices to make and are stuck between abit of a rock and a hard place that either takes us forward or treads water WRT the Js slight limitations but proven legacy or A400s step up albeit into the unknown somewhat. Good luck to them.

I would still like to see an improved 2nd tier capability to complement and compensate for the smaller P8 fleet somewhat and no I don't mean a couple of B350s with a training console and some binoculars as that is exactly what they are for. A dedicated fleet of 3-4 C295 MPAs with modules for added versatility to take care of those lesser national/regional tasks and patrolling freeing up the P8s for the more technical, longer range and combat orientated hit outs. A P8 sim should also be a priority with such a small feet.

We could hope for a triton mix as per Aus and the US but I guess if cost is an issue then that's obviously a no go unless we say do a deal with the Aus fleet. Whilst no one is replacing P3s 1for1 with P8s assumedly due to their improved capabilities the other big kids also have other secondary options that we do not plus only 4 airframes is more succeptible to factors such as maintanence cycles, technical issues, deployability etc so options, if not numbers then at least viable alternatives, can only help.

 

[RegR]

If A400 were to get the nod as the legacy Hercules replacement would its size and cost not impact the numbers purchased given the continual reduction of aircraft numbers as replacements get acquired? A400 is more in line to me as a B757 replacement able to carry the outsize and tactical loads strategic distances.

New Js offer familiarity and proven performances and are low risk. With the new features of the SOF version low and slow SAR work would be covered leaving the P8 to its intended purpose. Add in the two B350i aircraft and mid shore and offshore work is covered.

I think at the moment the ongoing A400 operational roll out, technical and implementation debacle will be what's literally scaring the nz officials into fight or flight mode as they will be wary of another potentially costly lemon project requiring even more taxpayer money to remedy and rectify at a later date. They will be definately doing their homework and weighing up pros and cons on this capability but then again don't they always sooo....

Haha I don't really get how you would be comparing an A400 to a B757, they are completely different aircraft, would'nt that be like RAAF saying they could have just aqquired more C17 instead of A330 or vice versa as they are essentially the same?

I don't see the fitted for B350s as an adequate alternative or even supplement for P8s as they are not only in short supply but are fullfilling yet another role already in the training curriculum on top of their original training and tasking roles. Since there was no increase in fleet size (even back to the original 5 at least) then along with the added AWO course now there will only be enough flight hours for a token operational tasking capability more foccussed on training, and rightly so. A firm commitment to added patrolling would have at least seen an increase by at least a couple of king airs fitted specifically for patrolling, for the use of, and added to the training examples, not in lieu of otherwise more just another added throw away line to appease the public rather than an actual capability increase IMO.

 

[Gibbo]

If A400 were to get the nod as the legacy Hercules replacement would its size and cost not impact the numbers purchased given the continual reduction of aircraft numbers as replacements get acquired? A400 is more in line to me as a B757 replacement able to carry the outsize and tactical loads strategic distances.

New Js offer familiarity and proven performances and are low risk. With the new features of the SOF version low and slow SAR work would be covered leaving the P8 to its intended purpose. Add in the two B350i aircraft and mid shore and offshore work is covered.

Tend to agree regarding concerns for A400 if it replaces the C130H - may not be 1:1. That would trouble me as due to 5 sqn's fleet likely reducing from 6xP3 to 4xP8 there's going to be a need for the C130 replacement to be used for more SAR - that has however been fore-shadowed in the RFI with a requirement for the FAMC fleet(s) to have that capability.

The 2 KA350 will not be available for much light MPA / SAR but even then I wouldn't use them for much more than shorter range stuff - you need something bigger for longer range SAR or anything heading out into the southern latitudes. A long-range SAR platform also needs the ability to deploy life-rafts & survival packs etc and the KA350 apparently won't have any particular modifications in this space so whilst they'll be useful, I suspect they'll only do SAR inshore and then only at times they just happen to be in the area.

Having said that, the time allowed for the P8 to reach full service gives the RNZAF a few years to determine exactly what it needs from a 2nd tier MPA platform so by 2025 or so, which is when the KA350 lease will be up for renewal by the way!!!, they should have a better idea, and business case, for getting something specifically suited to the role.

 

[John Fedup]

Before any strategic/tactical options currently in production are considered, NZ should determine if there is any possibility for obtaining recent production C-17s.

 

[Rob c]

New Js offer familiarity and proven performances and are low risk.

IMO there is a significant risk with the C 130J and that is that it will become obsolete before we wear them out, which is the way our pollies work, they expect every last gram of use to be extracted before replacement is considered.

 

[John Fedup]

The Hercules has been evolving for the last 60 years. There is a reason for this, it is a rock solid design that does a great job fulfilling its role, tactical lift. Only a major technological advance will obsolete this aircraft and when this happens it will still require 10-15 years to produce a plane with the new technology. The C-130J is a low risk solution for at least the next 20-30 years.

 

[Redlands18]

The Hercules has been evolving for the last 60 years. There is a reason for this, it is a rock solid design that does a great job fulfilling its role, tactical lift. Only a major technological advance will obsolete this aircraft and when this happens it will still require 10-15 years to produce a plane with the new technology. The C-130J is a low risk solution for at least the next 20-30 years.

I dare anyone to say there will not still be substantial numbers of Hercs in AF service on 23 Aug 2054 to celebrate its centenary.

 

[Redlands18]

IMO there is a significant risk with the C 130J and that is that it will become obsolete before we wear them out, which is the way our pollies work, they expect every last gram of use to be extracted before replacement is considered.

There is really nothing comming in the short to medium term thats going to make the Herc obsolete. The A400M is such a mess that even Germany has now ordered Hercs. The C-2 and KC-390 are probably better Aircraft but not by enough to overcome the advantages of a FMS purchase and operating the same Aircraft as NZs major Allies are using. The Americans aren't even close to a replacement.
Maybe we will see the 4 Engine Tiltroter thats been talked about but not for the next 20 years.

 

[Xthenaki]

IMO there is a significant risk with the C 130J and that is that it will become obsolete before we wear them out, which is the way our pollies work, they expect every last gram of use to be extracted before replacement is considered.

There is really nothing comming in the short to medium term thats going to make the Herc obsolete. The A400M is such a mess that even Germany has now ordered Hercs. The C-2 and KC-390 are probably better Aircraft but not by enough to overcome the advantages of a FMS purchase and operating the same Aircraft as NZs major Allies are using. The Americans aren't even close to a replacement.
Maybe we will see the 4 Engine Tiltroter thats been talked about but not for the next 20 years.

The C2 and KC390 need time to follow through with production and would both be excellent aircraft to purchase providing they live up to expectations. In the interim we probably need 2-3 Hercules C130 -J30.s to fill the immediate role (Maybe Sea Hercules or Kc130 variant for subsequent use)

 

[John Fedup]

I could be wrong but I believe the KC-130 variant is the only practical AAR choice for helicopters. Although the A400M will likely get this capability sorted at some point, the delay is just another negative against its selection.

 

[Stampede]

The C2 and KC390 need time to follow through with production and would both be excellent aircraft to purchase providing they live up to expectations. In the interim we probably need 2-3 Hercules C130 -J30.s to fill the immediate role (Maybe Sea Hercules or Kc130 variant for subsequent use)

The A400M on paper looks the perfect fit but it's current gremlins will rightfully scare many potential buyers.
Could a purchase of some additional used C130H provide some breathing space to see if the A400 comes good and also see how the C2 and KC390 progress.

Not the optimal solution but then again the options are currently problematic.
I don't see the C130 as the way forward, so buying some time may be the best approach.


Regards S

 

[MrConservative]

The four leased KA-350's will generate 2800 hours in training outputs which are more integrated than before with respect to both aircrew and pilots respective on land based sims and when airborne.

I agree with the general view stated by other that though the KA-350 will conduct a portion of air surveillance both directed and as an outcome of tailored flight training activities, there presents a golden opportunity through the acquisition of two further aircraft to build more "resilience" in maritime ISR and SAR. They would enable a further dedicated 1400 annual hours of tasking to be achieved from 42 Sqd. It really is low cost low hanging fruit to get a bona fide capability improvement.

A 6-9 person UNI-PAC (U) SAR Liferaft (packed they're about the size of a standard punching bag) can be manually deployed from the LH rear door of a KA-350.