Ukranian Crisis

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swerve

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The investigation isn't politically motivated. It's a legal requirement to have such an investigation - & that's true not only under Dutch law, but also Malaysian, Ukrainian & Russian. I think it's also a legal requirement to ask the authorities of the ATC zone where it happened to participate - & that means that the Ukrainians had to be invited. As I understand it, the Russians had to be asked to provide evidence, because the aircraft was in contact with Russian ATC (it was about to enter Russian airspace) & showing on Russian ATC radars. Not asking for contributions from Russia & Ukrainian participation would have been proof of a political stitch-up.
 
Feanor

Feanor

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Ukraine has announced missile training exercises over the Black Sea using BM-30, S-300 and Buk systems. Some of the announced exercise area is in Crimean airspace and Russia filed a note of protest, calling the exercises unsafe. A Russian S-300V4 btln has been redeployed to Crimea, and Russia said they will shoot down Ukraine's missiles if they show up in Russian airspace, and they will retaliate with strikes against the launch platforms if the missiles threaten Russian objects or infrastructure on land, sea, or air. This will probably come to nothing but accidents can't be ruled out.
 
gazzzwp

gazzzwp

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Feanor said:
Ukraine has announced missile training exercises over the Black Sea using BM-30, S-300 and Buk systems. Some of the announced exercise area is in Crimean airspace and Russia filed a note of protest, calling the exercises unsafe. A Russian S-300V4 btln has been redeployed to Crimea, and Russia said they will shoot down Ukraine's missiles if they show up in Russian airspace, and they will retaliate with strikes against the launch platforms if the missiles threaten Russian objects or infrastructure on land, sea, or air. This will probably come to nothing but accidents can't be ruled out.
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How did Ukraine come to have S300's Feanor? Surely these do not date back to Soviet times? Were they just sold to a then 'friendly' neighbour state?
 
Feanor

Feanor

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gazzzwp said:
How did Ukraine come to have S300's Feanor? Surely these do not date back to Soviet times? Were they just sold to a then 'friendly' neighbour state?
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Yep, Soviet times.

Meanwhile Ukraine adjusted their announced missile firing area to be outside of Crimean airspace, and the actual missile tests took place in an even smaller area. So those went by without any incidents. Well rumors has it two of the missiles flew out of control and self-destruction took place, shortly after launch, but given the age of the missiles and the questionable life-extension processes used it's not surprising.
 
Feanor

Feanor

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Waseb Al-Qisuin

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Feanor said:
Ukraine has attempted a significant push towards Logvinovo, going on Debal'tsevo. Heavy artillery and armor is being used. The DNR is reporting 30 KIA from the Ukrainian side with 3 BMPs. The Ukrainian Army acknowledged 5 KIA. The attack seems to have been repulsed for now.

Бои на дебальцевÑком направлении - Colonel Cassad
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Do they really try to open up a pocket reaching Debaltsevo? Their positions and recent pushes suggest that but from where comes the confidence that they could maintain a new 15km deep pocket again? I wonder how they wont get trapped by the NAF without creating a wide Zone hugging Debaltsevo?
 
Feanor

Feanor

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Waseb Al-Qisuin said:
Do they really try to open up a pocket reaching Debaltsevo? Their positions and recent pushes suggest that but from where comes the confidence that they could maintain a new 15km deep pocket again? I wonder how they wont get trapped by the NAF without creating a wide Zone hugging Debaltsevo?
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They seem to have gained a small area in no-man's land that's overgrown with shrubs. But it cost them dearly, and there's no clear indication whether they're still holding it or have withdrawn.
 
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Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
DNI: Ukrainian military tried to break through to the west of Donetsk
20:46 01/10/2017 Source: News Agency of Russia "TASS"
Ukrainian security forces attempted to break through the defensive positions of the forces of self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) in the west of Donetsk. This Donetsk news agency reported today in the operational command of the DNI.
"APU at 18:45 after artillery preparation using 122 mm shells took try capturing three groups numbering 10 people our position in the industrial zone of the area - said -. Our units were forced to return fire from small arms."
Irreversible non-combat losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2016 amounted to 256 soldiers, 63 of whom committed suicide, and 58 - died due to illness. In addition, 39 military were killed as a result of careless handling of weapons, 30 were killed, 29 deaths were classified as accidents. 18 people perished in a traffic accident, four - as a result of violation of security measures, 10 - from poisoning.
As reported, in 2016 non-combat losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine exceeded the fighting and made 256 and 211 people respectively. ..Chief of Staff Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Muzhenko said that the loss of all power structures of Ukraine from 2014 until the end of Nov. 2016 amounted to 3,064 dead.
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The above is by their own admission & shows the sorry state of military & security forces of once a nuclear armed state! I wonder if they kept nukes, what would be happening there now? I agree with this: Ukraine: to be or not to be? Forecast 2017
 
Feanor

Feanor

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There has been a major flareup at Avdeevka with large scale artillery exchanges. The Minsk accords, in this area at least, are out the window. It's not clear how this will continue but there are some large scale troop movements on both sides.

Personally I suspect Ukraine intends to force Trump's hand in taking a stance on the war in Ukraine before he can strike a deal with Putin that doesn't involve asking for Poroshenko's opinion.
 
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Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
Rockets Fly As Donetsk Returns To Darkest Days Of War- IMO, it doesn't matter much who started this round of fighting. The situation at the front was never stable to begin with, & both sides use propaganda to justify their actions while looking to gain an advantage. As in the film Rashomon, the same event can be viewed & explained from several different angles. In this case,
Vladimir Putin noted: aggravation provoked by official Kyiv.
On Friday last week started basically fighting on Sunday, the so-called Ukrainian volunteer forces captured one of the reference points of the opposition and moved to the territory controlled by the host of the 200 meters. On Sunday, they were knocked out. But why is this happening now? In my opinion, for several reasons. The first reason lies in the fact that the Ukrainian leadership today needs money. And the money is best knock of the European Union, of the individual countries of Europe, the United States and international financial institutions, exposing himself as a victim of aggression. First. Second. As we know, during the election campaign in the United States serving the Ukrainian government has taken a unilateral position in favor of one candidate. And more than that, with the approval of some oligarchs, with the approval of certain political leadership, funded this candidate or the female candidate, if so to speak more precisely. Now they need to establish a relationship with the current administration. And also after the conflict it is always better, it is always more convenient. It is easier to draw the actions of the administration in the decision of the Ukrainian problems well and thus establish some dialogue. The third reason - against the backdrop of domestic political obvious failures in the area of ​​economic and social policy. Intensified the opposition, it should be shut. It is necessary to mobilize the population around the current leadership. This is also achieved by the task easier on a background of the resumption of the conflict. There is another consideration. I think that today the Ukrainian government not ready at all to the implementation of the Minsk agreements and looking for an excuse to give up their execution. And this, too, would contribute to the development of the conflict. I very much hope that the sane forces in Ukraine itself will not allow the situation to develop in the south-eastern Ukraine, the worst-case scenario, but instead concentrate all their attention and efforts to fulfill the Minsk agreement ", - said Vladimir Putin.
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Russian Foreign Ministry saw "pattern" in moments of exacerbation in the Donbas
Why Putin Took Crimea? He also disagrees that annexation (in the worst meaning of the word) took place, as Crimea rejoined Russia to which it long belonged before as a result of a referendum, & it's also very possible that many lives were saved- unlike what happened later in Odessa & is happening now in Donbas. Edit: interesting analysis of latest news here & here.
 
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vldbzh

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"... both sides use propaganda to justify their actions'' -
really both sides? if you enter the word "Avdeevka" in the YouTube search you will get a couple of pages of pure pro-russian video propaganda.
"...the same event can be viewed & explained from several different angles..." - it can be "explained" from a million angles. The question is what is truth.
 
Feanor

Feanor

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vldbzh said:
"... both sides use propaganda to justify their actions'' -
really both sides? if you enter the word "Avdeevka" in the YouTube search you will get a couple of pages of pure pro-russian video propaganda.
"...the same event can be viewed & explained from several different angles..." - it can be "explained" from a million angles. The question is what is truth.
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There's the facts and there's the assessment or analysis. With facts there is a "truth". With analysis it gets more complicated. On the subject of Avdeevka, even bellingcat (for all their anti-Russian stance) has confirmed presence of Ukrainian armor in places it shouldn't be. And there's even photos of OSCE vehicles and personnel right next to the Ukrainian tanks.
 
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Toblerone

Banned Member
The ukrainian army is the one escalating the conflict which leads to casualties. Also, there is a string of bomb assassinations of rebel commanders.

Now what's next? I guess Russia floods the front with good ol' rocket artillery?

Thank god Hillary didn't win, who knows what kind of mainstream media anti-Russia shrieking would ensue. Then again, Trump is needlessly escalating against Iran, so ...
 
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Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
More info. on Kievan heavy weapons, US RQ-4А Global Hawk & personnel deployments, etc.:The militia have the opportunity to defeat the Ukrainian army
Well, they got beaten in summer, let's see if this winter offensive will be any different. I doubt it! I wonder, how much, if any, the Poles & other non-Ukrainians (are there any Chechens & Georgians left?) get paid there & if they are just volunteers with minimum upkeep pay?
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