Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Feanor

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Fighting is rapidly resuming in Ukraine, as small scale shoot outs have gradually gotten bigger. Ukrainian artillery has resumed shelling rebel cities, but for now at a fairly low intensity. Ukrainian armor and arty echelons have been seen moving to the front. Meanwhile the rebels have re-established rail travel with Russia, for now running a small passenger train. But remember rebuilding the railroad into Abkhazia was done in anticipation of Georgian action against the breakaway republics.

Ukrainian troops seem to be concentrated across from Donetsk, Volnovakha and Gorlovka. Part of the troops will likely go to Perekop, across from Crimea. This could be preparation for an offensive.

Хроники "перемириÑ" - Colonel Cassad
О концентрации ВСУ на ДонбаÑÑе - Colonel Cassad

EDIT: And in the mean time Russia has agreed to restructure Ukrainian debt. Instead of paying back 3 billion next year, Ukraine will pay nothing in 2016, and 1 billion a year in '17-'19.

http://newsru.com/finance/16nov2015/credit.html
 
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Nick underscore

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Thanks for the info.

Based on the concerntrations and numbers projected by that source, it would seem Luhansk (Northern sector of the front) has the bulk of armoured vehicles deployed. There also seems to be an armoured reserve (50+ MBT's)

Not sure the numbers are right, but they don't seem unrealistic.
 
Feanor

Feanor

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Nick underscore said:
Thanks for the info.

Based on the concerntrations and numbers projected by that source, it would seem Luhansk (Northern sector of the front) has the bulk of armoured vehicles deployed. There also seems to be an armoured reserve (50+ MBT's)

Not sure the numbers are right, but they don't seem unrealistic.
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Lugansk isn't on that map. Look again at the administrative borders, this is just Donetsk region. Gorlovka is getting the bulk of it.
 
N

Nick underscore

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Feanor said:
Lugansk isn't on that map. Look again at the administrative borders, this is just Donetsk region. Gorlovka is getting the bulk of it.
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Apologies, you're right. I actually though the green line was the Ukr-RF border (middle and last image). That is indeed a very large concerntration north of Gorlovka.

Do you have a link on the Luhansk frontal sector?
 
Feanor

Feanor

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Nick underscore said:
Apologies, you're right. I actually though the green line was the Ukr-RF border (middle and last image). That is indeed a very large concerntration north of Gorlovka.

Do you have a link on the Luhansk frontal sector?
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Not at this time. It's been fairly quiet there, comparatively speaking. To be honest, if the Ukrainian Army took Gorlovka, it would be a catastrophe for the rebels. It would put all of Donetsk in a pincer, and make any semblance of normal life in that city impossible. I'm surprised there's nothing about parallel Russian army movements. They can't not see it. Does Russia have some sort of guarantees that Ukraine won't attack? Or is Russia moving units towards the border, and somehow keeping it quiet? The deployment to Syria does draw a lot of attention away from Ukraine.
 
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Nick underscore

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Can't see UA going on the offensive. Maybe the armoured pincer can't push south for fear of flanking from the Luhansk sector? The pocket & cauldron disaster, I'm sure is still fresh in the mind.

Some unconfirmed reports that UA advising the OSCE, that they move artillery and mortars back to the front.

More details on the (very clever) offer by the RF against Ukrainian debt (~$3bn) will be rejected. RF/ Ukrainian debt - FT

"Russia’s offer meant Kiev would still have to pay back the $3bn to Moscow during the IMF’s four-year support programme — unlike its deal with commercial creditors which pushed out repayments until after the programme ended"

In essence, the RF loan would have been payed back, through the IMF programme. Furthermore, the offer has been made, after the agreed restructure ( w/ majority bond holders).
 
Feanor

Feanor

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Nick underscore said:
Can't see UA going on the offensive. Maybe the armoured pincer can't push south for fear of flanking from the Luhansk sector? The pocket & cauldron disaster, I'm sure is still fresh in the mind.

Some unconfirmed reports that UA advising the OSCE, that they move artillery and mortars back to the front.
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If they could take Gorlovka, I don't think the rebels could do much in the way of encircling the Ukrainian forces. But that's a pretty serious "if". I think Russia is likely to intervene directly if Ukraine goes on the offensive.

More details on the (very clever) offer by the RF against Ukrainian debt (~$3bn) will be rejected. RF/ Ukrainian debt - FT

"Russia’s offer meant Kiev would still have to pay back the $3bn to Moscow during the IMF’s four-year support programme — unlike its deal with commercial creditors which pushed out repayments until after the programme ended"

In essence, the RF loan would have been payed back, through the IMF programme. Furthermore, the offer has been made, after the agreed restructure ( w/ majority bond holders).
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I'm not sure the offer is clever. Ukraine straight up refused to repay the debt as originally stipulated. Which means they have to agree to some sort of restructuring to get their money back. This was an offer they saw as a reasonable compromise, that would get the money back while giving Ukraine time to find the funds.
 
N

Nick underscore

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Feanor said:
I'm not sure the offer is clever. Ukraine straight up refused to repay the debt as originally stipulated. Which means they have to agree to some sort of restructuring to get their money back. This was an offer they saw as a reasonable compromise, that would get the money back while giving Ukraine time to find the funds.
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Further look behind the numbers and it becomes clearer.

In August this year the Ukrainian Govt came to agreement with the majority of the bond holders (~$18b). This concluded with an agreed 20% (was 40% on proposal) haircut and Ukr debt servicing would be frozen for the next four years (2019/20).

This was a key condition on the IMF ($40bn) refinancing support programme. Note; Russia (approx $3bn) refused to participate. In fact, the RF threatened to take the Ukrainian Govt through the UK courts to test the T&C's of the bonds (which was an empty threat in reality and would prove fruitless).

This offer essentially ensures that Russia (as a private creditor on the $3bn) will be paid back within the next 4 years and not after, as per the conditions the IMF programme requires. You will also note the offer puts Russia above all other bond holders, when the majority of said bond holder, have agreed to a restructure..

Lastly, to accept this offer would double Ukrainian debt servicing reqs.. Interestingly, that $3bn bond due to Russia - is maturing next month...

Overall the offer looks economically clever to me
 
Feanor

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Meanwhile, some Ukrainian "political activists" blew up the powerlines to Crimea. When National Guard arrived to arrest them, and give repair crews access to the power lines, large numbers of men in camouflage attacked the National Guard, at least one (likely 2) was wounded with a knife.

Later Poroshenko claimed the National Guard was only there so the repair crews could make the cables safe, not actually have the powerlines repaired. As of right now Crimea is badly short on electricity, with emergency generators being in use. Russian sources report that there is about a month's supply for the emergency generators.

It should be noted that this is not the first attempt. Two powerline support columns were damaged earlier, looking like an implied threat, and the response was that Russia halted all coal shipments, putting Ukrainian coal powered plants under threat of shutdown.

This entire circus act comes on the heels of Russia refusing to restructure Ukrainian loan payments without IMF guarantees.

Света в Крыму нет! Слава Украине? – varlamov.ru
Ð*нергоблокада Крыма - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðóïíûå ãîðîäà Êðûìà ïîäêëþ÷èëè ê ýëåêòðè÷åñòâó, ââîäÿòñÿ ãðàôèêè îòêëþ÷åíèÿ âîäû è ñâåòà
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ îòêàçàëàñü ðåñòðóêòóðèçîâàòü äîëã Óêðàèíû áåç ãàðàíòèé îò ÌÂÔ
Штурм Перекопа - Colonel Cassad

EDIT: Russian dispatch from Sevastopol says morning peak use for the peninsula is 800 megawatts, with current temperatures. They can generate 350 themselves, and the other 450 will be provided in increments. Also, with Crimea, this sabotage has also left a portion of Kherson region (Ukraine) without power. The Ukrainian side apparently intends to repair the powerlines within the next two days. Whether this means resumption of electricity to Crimea is unclear. The first line of the energy bridge to the Russian mainland is due this December, so taking action now may have been an attempt by Ukraine to use this opportunity before it disappears.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2485485.html
 
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Ranger25

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US 173 ABN continues training 5 Ukraine Battalions

WASHINGTON, November 23, 2015 — The United States has begun the second phase of its Fearless Guardian mission to train and equip Ukrainian forces, Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis said today.

The United States has committed more than $265 million in equipment and training to the mission, Davis told reporters at the Pentagon.

The effort, which Congress approved in 2014, is to help Ukraine better monitor and secure its border, operate more safely and effectively, and preserve and enforce its territorial integrity, the spokesman said.

Part of Ongoing Efforts

"This is part of our ongoing efforts to contribute to Ukraine's long-term military reform and professionalism, and to help improve Ukraine's internal defense capabilities and training capacity," Davis said.

The phase that began today will train up to five battalions of Ministry of Defense personnel and one battalion of special operations forces personnel, he said. U.S. forces just completed training Ukrainian national guard forces.

About 300 U.S. soldiers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade are participating in the training, which is taking place in western Ukraine. NATO allies and other U.S. personnel are participating as well.
 
Feanor

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Ukraine has begun repairing the powerlines and expects to have power restored to Crimea within the next few days, possibly as early as later today. This likely has to do with the Russian customs stopping all coal shipments to Ukraine. Coal shipments have also been halted from the rebel-held areas. Thus, last-years little dance is repeated. Meanwhile the energy bridge is expected to start operating between Dec 20th and 25th.

БлÑкаут 25.11.2015 - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíà îáåùàåò âîçîáíîâèòü ïîäà÷ó ýëåêòðè÷åñòâà â Êðûì â òå÷åíèå äíÿ

All VDV divisions are getting a third regiment, the 7th VDV's third regiment will be based in Crimea. A VDV btln from that division has been in Crimea almost constantly since the takeover, and will likely serve as the basis for the new regiment.

Третий полк 7 деÑантно-штурмовой (горной) диизии будет в Крыму! - Добро пожаловать в журнал РоÑтовÑкого Орла
 
Feanor

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marla

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There is no way the ukraine goverment will ever take back crimea considering the citizens themself are not supporting the current president and massively taking to the streets to protest and ravage everywhere
first they need to unite their people
and with a huge debt to russia where are they gonna get funding from no one in their right mind will loan them money
 
Feanor

Feanor

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marla said:
There is no way the ukraine goverment will ever take back crimea considering the citizens themself are not supporting the current president and massively taking to the streets to protest and ravage everywhere
first they need to unite their people
and with a huge debt to russia where are they gonna get funding from no one in their right mind will loan them money
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Their main debt is to the west, and the west will readily continue loaning them money. That money isn't going to save their economy or let them rebuild, but it will keep the current government in office, and the war machine relatively functional. Which is its purpose.

You're right they can't retake Crimea, but the biggest obstacle is not their population but rather Russian military power.

Meanwhile, the first line of the energy bridge from the mainland has started up, so far in trial mode. Once it's completely up, dec 20th is the current tentative date, it will provide 400 MWs (currently, in test mode it sends 100). Still not enough for the peninsula as a whole but a huge improvement. They're also using tankers to ship in fuel for generators, and even sending in large numbers of additional generators. The second line of the energy bridge was originally planned for late 2016, but now they're trying to have it up by May.

Also a curious factoid. Ukraine has repeated the Soviet Afghan experiment of mounting S-8 rocket pods on MT-LBs to use as makeshift anti-personnel rockets. The Soviet experiment was a failure because the scatter rate was too great, and the weapons were far too inaccurate. But given the level of equipment and competency that Ukraine has so far displayed, this is unlikely to deter them.

http://karelmilitary.livejournal.com/632507.html
 
Somali-Turk

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it is no doubt that russia is a power in that particular region and all smaller nations have no option but no cooperate.
crimea is considered by russia as the 'jewel of the past glorious muscovite kingdom'

it is really a bad time for ukreans.
 
Feanor

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LogisticsGuy said:
The most vulnerable resource in Crimea is water. The North-Crimean Canal coming from the North and subject to interdiction feeds a large agricultural area in the North-West part of Crimea.


Map of Crimea. Detailed 3D map of Crimean peninsula
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You're ill informed. Ukraine dammed the canal and shut down water to Crimea last year. The Russian Military had to deploy engineers and drill a bunch of wells.

EDIT: Incidentally at the time there was a bunch of rumors about potential environmental damage, but since then it's been quiet. Which of course could mean anything.

EDIT2: They recently arrested a group of 3 Russian saboteurs in Kiev, and killed one in the process. Now Right Sector says the guy killed was a Ukrainian nationalist who fought against the rebels in Donbass region, and pro-rebel sources indicate that the guy was an internet fake who never fought anyone anywhere.

Personal comment: something about revolutions and children.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2517364.html
 
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