War Against ISIS

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I see Putin has just said Turkey shot down the jet to protect its Isis oil:

Russia says Turkey 'shot down plane for IS oil' - BBC News

I'm guessing the comment isn't intended as an olive branch or a de-escalation.

I do however wonder what Russia will do. I get the feeling that sanctions and public comments etc aren't the full extent of the response, and that there will be something concrete and unambiguous in theatre coming soon. Or is it just me?
Well Putin isn't exactly wrong regarding the oil. The border is quite porous and the Turks apparently aren't overly enthusiastic about policing the border for smuggling, so read into it what you will. There are claims that the Daesh oil scheme goes right to the Erdogan family itself.
 

chemical bro

New Member
Well Putin isn't exactly wrong regarding the oil. The border is quite porous and the Turks apparently aren't overly enthusiastic about policing the border for smuggling, so read into it what you will. There are claims that the Daesh oil scheme goes right to the Erdogan family itself.
Respect for adequate comments on topic.
Price 10 usd/barrel per ISIS oil was wery "sweet" for Perdogan.
Main problem, that Obama,Putin, everybody knew about perdogan's family business, but were silent. Policy is big hypocritical party.:daz
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
- How is the intelligence used? Just as a observation of each others capabilities or does the intelligence have direct influence on the ground war?
Direct influence on the ground war. Russia is using all the assets they in play have to help Assad.
 

gazzzwp

Member
This is like James Bond movies each other trying to get information on the other. This is a gold mine for the Russian and NATO in regards to the intel field. I'm surprise at the level of EW that the Russian have but don't think that NATO don't have this capability they do.
That's a good point. My question would be does the Russia EW equipment make them totally invulnerable within that perimeter?

Is it the case that any plane, guided missile (attack or defensive) simply useless in that arena now?
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
That's a good point. My question would be does the Russia EW equipment make them totally invulnerable within that perimeter?

Is it the case that any plane, guided missile (attack or defensive) simply useless in that arena now?
Far from it

new russian assets in theatre would change the dynamics of how some prev ops were conducted - but to apply the notion that it has fundamentally neutered the capacity to strike by french and US air is a bit of a stretch in optimism
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Far from it

new russian assets in theatre would change the dynamics of how some prev ops were conducted - but to apply the notion that it has fundamentally neutered the capacity to strike by french and US air is a bit of a stretch in optimism
It's also worth pointing out that there is no reason to think that the Russians would aim to or want to do that even if they could.


I can imagine Putin being tempted to neuter the Turks somewhat, but beyond that there wouldn't even be the wish to, I think. On either side.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's also worth pointing out that there is no reason to think that the Russians would aim to or want to do that even if they could.


I can imagine Putin being tempted to neuter the Turks somewhat, but beyond that there wouldn't even be the wish to, I think. On either side.
The usual anti-NATO rhetoric aside, you're probably right. He's still working on trying to create some sort of coalition that would include the west and Russia on the same side. The meeting with Holland took place, as scheduled, to discuss cooperation in Syria, post-shootdown.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I can imagine Putin being tempted to neuter the Turks somewhat, but beyond that there wouldn't even be the wish to, I think. On either side.
the other reality is that neither the US, France, Israel or Russia are going to demonstrate open capability
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The Iraqi Army is preparing for the assault of Ramadi. Overall it seems ISIS is starting to lose ground.

ИракÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÑÑ‚Ð²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð³Ð¾Ñ‚Ð¾Ð²Ð¸Ñ‚ÑÑ Ðº штурму города Эр-Рамади - Телеканал «Звезда»

The Syrian Army reported two columns of rebel fighters crossing into Syria from Turkey. After a brief firefight, one of the columns was forced to turn around.

Разведка Сирии заÑекла автоколонны террориÑтов на границе Ñ Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ¹ - Первый по Ñрочным новоÑÑ‚Ñм — LIFE | NEWS

Germany has approved the deployment of 1200 troops to Syria as part of the anti-ISIS mission for one year, with possibility of extension.

Ð’Ñе ближе к меÑтам боевой Ñлавы РоммелÑ... - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russian An-124 flying to Sha'aryat airbase. There is persistent noise that Russian advance units have already arrived there including base security, and that the cargo planes are flying in some of the SAMs and airspace control assets. The base features two runways and hardened shelters for planes.

On a side note, there have been rumors of Mi-28s and Ka-52s already being in Syria. They're so far false, though this may change.

РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑƒÐ²ÐµÐ»Ð¸Ñ‡Ð¸Ð²Ð°ÐµÑ‚ авиационную группировку до 100 ударных Ñамолетов | Военный информатор
https://mobile.twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/671346432272633856
Ð˜Ð½Ñ„Ð¾Ñ€Ð¼Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ Ð´ÐµÐ·Ð¸Ð½Ñ€Ð¼Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ - nortwolf_sam

Alleged footage from a UAV of oil tankers crossing the Syrian border into Turkey.

Эрдоган вÑÑ‘? | Блог Ðиколай Чиж | КОÐТ

Russia once again conducts an operation in the North Caucus against ISIS militants. However it's still not clear whether they've simply started labeling all the terrorists as ISIS.

Análisis Militares: 14 terroristas muertos en una operación en el Cáucaso
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Well Putin isn't exactly wrong regarding the oil. The border is quite porous and the Turks apparently aren't overly enthusiastic about policing the border for smuggling, so read into it what you will. There are claims that the Daesh oil scheme goes right to the Erdogan family itself.
All true AFAIK apart from one detail: there's no credible route from any of the oil wells in Syria to that part of the border. The stories of ISIS oil being smuggled into Turkey all describe the convoys crossing the border far to the east, at least a couple of hundred km away & mostly further. To get from Daesh oil wells to the border of Hatay they'd have to cross front lines a few times.

So, while everyone knows oil is being smuggled across the border, & there are rumours that Erdogan's son & daughter are personally involved, there's no reason to think that there was any of it going on anywhere near the shoot-down, & therefore no reason to suspect any link.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
All true AFAIK apart from one detail: there's no credible route from any of the oil wells in Syria to that part of the border. The stories of ISIS oil being smuggled into Turkey all describe the convoys crossing the border far to the east, at least a couple of hundred km away & mostly further. To get from Daesh oil wells to the border of Hatay they'd have to cross front lines a few times.

So, while everyone knows oil is being smuggled across the border, & there are rumours that Erdogan's son & daughter are personally involved, there's no reason to think that there was any of it going on anywhere near the shoot-down, & therefore no reason to suspect any link.
In all likelihood it was bombing convoys of weapons headed in the opposite direction, or rebel positions in the area. The SAA has been pushing towards the Turkish border for a while with the idea that closing it would cut off rebel supplies from that side. The Turks have shot down Syrian aircraft in the area, and their weapon convoys headed southward are well known. It's likely the shoot down of the Su-24 was an attempt to send Russia a message, that Turkey did not appreciate their, and the Syrian, attempts to close the border. Of course now that area is being bombed more then before, so it's not like they've succeeded.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
The Turks burnt so much political capital with that stunt. They really lost face imo. I think they could have gotten away with inserting troops in Syria with the goal of protecting the Turkmens, fighting terrorists tied to the terror attacks in Turkey or some other pretext, fighting kurd terrorists etc. But they did not grab the opportunity, why?

With troops inside Syria they would have so much bargaining power for when the kurdish autonomy issue comes up in the inevitable talks for Syria's future. They could equip and train the turkmens ... so much potential to shape the future of their neighbour.

And they go and shoot down a plane with a weak excuse, exposing them as nondependable and aggressive, turning Russia against them and having all their shady business brought to the light for the world to criticize. Now their allies pay the price and Russia is bombing their "humanitarian" assets.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Syrian Army is 6 kms from Palmyra, and there's information that the Tiger force is pushing eastward out of Kuweiris, in the direction of Raqqa. This is on the subject of fighting ISIS.

There's a good chance that some sort of significant offensive is in the works, and the second Russian base is part of the support effort.

Meanwhile, Putin is on the warpath. Russian college students studying abroad in Turkey on exchange programs are being recalled, and education cooperation with Turkey is being halted.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíîáð ñîáèðàåòñÿ âåðíóòü äîìîé ñòóäåíòîâ, ïðîõîäÿùèõ îáó÷åíèå â Òóðöèè

Russia says they're not going to publish information on Turkey buying ISIS oil, their goal is not public accusation.

Personal comment: the implication being that their goal is destroying said oil trade physically.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðåìëü îòêàçàëñÿ äîêàçûâàòü çàêóïêè Òóðöèåé íåôòè ó ÈÃ

The first list of products banned for importation from Turkey is foodstuffs of various kinds.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìåäâåäåâ îïðåäåëèë ñïèñîê çàïðåùåííûõ ê ââîçó òóðåöêèõ òîâàðîâ

EDIT: Information is coming in on towns and villages falling to SAA forces in the Latakia mountains. While the offensive does seem to be proceeding, it also means the previous statement by Russian MoD that the border in that area was sealed, was incorrect. Misinterpretation is the likely culprit, as the statement was extremely brief, and unsubstantiated, although they may simply have been lying too.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Turks burnt so much political capital with that stunt. They really lost face imo. I think they could have gotten away with inserting troops in Syria with the goal of protecting the Turkmens, fighting terrorists tied to the terror attacks in Turkey or some other pretext, fighting kurd terrorists etc. But they did not grab the opportunity, why?

With troops inside Syria they would have so much bargaining power for when the kurdish autonomy issue comes up in the inevitable talks for Syria's future. They could equip and train the turkmens ... so much potential to shape the future of their neighbour.

And they go and shoot down a plane with a weak excuse, exposing them as nondependable and aggressive, turning Russia against them and having all their shady business brought to the light for the world to criticize. Now their allies pay the price and Russia is bombing their "humanitarian" assets.
Funny thing is, Russia would have likely taken less issue with Turkey pulling a "Crimea" on the Turkmen, provided the border was closed, and no weapons were going to other groups in Syria. Even an outright annexation of that one region, provided Turkey stopped sending large quantities of uncontrolled weapons and importing ISIS oil, would have likely caused less of a response from Russia then shooting down that plane. In fact that kind of action would have likely served to improve the situation in Syria, not worsen it.
 

chemical bro

New Member
The Turks burnt so much political capital with that stunt. They really lost face imo.
You are absolutely right. Perdogan is a political corpse, although a politician he never was.
The mentality of a trader from Istanbul vegetable market did not allow him to become a politician.
Destroying the su 24 he not only gave Putin last trump in the middle East game,but he signed his own death sentence.
What's next?The war against Russia?Syria?Or against Russia, Syria and Iran, maybe?
 

chris

New Member
Funny thing is, Russia would have likely taken less issue with Turkey pulling a "Crimea" on the Turkmen, provided the border was closed, and no weapons were going to other groups in Syria. Even an outright annexation of that one region, provided Turkey stopped sending large quantities of uncontrolled weapons and importing ISIS oil, would have likely caused less of a response from Russia then shooting down that plane. In fact that kind of action would have likely served to improve the situation in Syria, not worsen it.
I guess what happens in Syria could be easily mirrored in Ukraine. If Turkey sends army into Syria to protect the Turkmen minority, both UN and especially NATO have to take an official stand on the issue. If they condemn it, then there is nothing stopping Russia from bombing the Turkish army. If they support it, then Putin can use every single argument they make in defense of Turkey, while sending troops to Donbass.
 

stojo

Member
If Turkey sends army into Syria to protect the Turkmen minority, both UN and especially NATO have to take an official stand on the issue. If they condemn it, then there is nothing stopping Russia from bombing the Turkish army. If they support it, then Putin can use every single argument they make in defense of Turkey, while sending troops to Donbass.
I think this is rather naive. When it comes to the policy of large states like USA, Russia, etc... double standards are a rule, rather than exception.

NATO has intervened in Yugoslavia in order to support the secession of Kosovo province, eventually recognizing it as independent state. On the other hand, they vigorously opposed Russia's intervention in Georgia, when Russians did exactly the same thing in favor of the South Ossetia. Of course, it goes other way around as well.

EDIT:

Apparently Ka - 52 helicopter on 1:03

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Cd0gHpe8Fs&feature=youtu.be
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
NATO has intervened in Yugoslavia in order to support the secession of Kosovo province, eventually recognizing it as independent state. On the other hand, they vigorously opposed Russia's intervention in Georgia, when Russians did exactly the same thing in favor of the South Ossetia. Of course, it goes other way around as well.
I'm not so sure that there is equivalency in this.

eg the Kosovars have been fighting for autonomy from various "masters" for over 750 years - whereas ithe Crimeans had emotional and historical links with the Russians which supported the diaspora argument to some extent
 

stojo

Member
I'm not so sure that there is equivalency in this.

eg the Kosovars have been fighting for autonomy from various "masters" for over 750 years - whereas ithe Crimeans had emotional and historical links with the Russians which supported the diaspora argument to some extent
I didn't even mention Crimea. I mentioned South Ossetia. In both cases a foreign power launched a military action, without an approval of UN, against another country in order to support local separatist movements, which where fighting the central government. In both cases the population of the seceded provinces largely looked at the intervening forces with sympathies. In both cases, invading powers claimed that the invasion was launched in order to curtail the ethnic cleansing (although, there where obvious anterior motives).

And in both cases one country was accusing the other, of the same transgressions of international law, of which the said country was culpable her self.

In the end, none of that mattered. The only think that was important at the end, was sheer military and political influence on the ground.

Btw....750 years of struggle for "autonomy" of Kosovo is utter nationalist nonsense, (as is the case with most of these narratives of multi millennial "struggle" for national "liberation" around the world). However knowing how these arguments usually end up (especially related to Balkans) ill refrain on elaborating, since it is irrelevant.
 
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