When America’s Stealth Monopoly Ends, What's Next?

[Aussie Digger]

No capability claims are being made by us, and nobody here takes APA article seriously.

Plenty do and they keep giving those idiots all the Google revenue...

No you can't. You don't have a major aero-space industry in your shed. There is a big difference there mainly because our aerospace industry has been working up to PAK-FA projects via other projects. Many of the Su-35BM subsystems will be used in the PAK-FA from what we've been told. The airframe has already been designed and is already being assembled.

Now you can not believe the Russian gov. and just think they're all lying. That's a more or less valid viewpoint. You can't speculate about it's capabilities or lack thereof. You also can't go on to claim that you are building a 5th. generation aircraft in your tool shed.

The bottom line here is that there are indicators that the 5th generation aircraft project is being worked on seriously. Whether the end product will be a success or not we do not know. We don't have that kind of info. You are entitled to your own opinion, but unless you have some insider information, it's hardly more valid then anyone else's.

I've never said they are lying. They'd be stupid to do so. If they don't produce a 5th gen fighter they'll be significantly disadvantaged when almost every NATO nation is operating a full fleet of VLo fighter aircraft and their best efforts to date are completely irrelevent over night.

My issue is with APA, fanboys etc who use entirely unverifiable claims as some sort of basis of belief that PAK-FA IS "better".

Fact.

No-one has seen even a test or development aircraft on a production line.

Fact:

Russia has made plenty of claims about it's 5th Gen fighter and never once produced anything to support it's claims.

From the point of view that none of the claims about Russias 5th Gen are verifiable in any way and no attempts to support them have been made, my claim is every bit as credible as theirs.

 

[Haavarla]

Fact:

Russia has made plenty of claims about it's 5th Gen fighter and never once produced anything to support it's claims.

From the point of view that none of the claims about Russias 5th Gen are verifiable in any way and no attempts to support them have been made, my claim is every bit as credible as theirs.

Why do you say "Russia", like the official Russian DoD?
Don't you mean some half ass news site on the net?

Do you have any verifiable proof that those claims actually come from the Russian DoD or the official leaders at Sukhoi, and not just some Russian APA like sites etc etc?

Can you plz provide us with some of those article/links about the 5th Gen PAK-FA so we can judge the sources and content of those claims you're refering to?

I think there was one statment from Sukhio about a prototype finnished in 2008, then a year delay, and that's about what i can recall..

 

[Feanor]

I've never said they are lying. They'd be stupid to do so. If they don't produce a 5th gen fighter they'll be significantly disadvantaged when almost every NATO nation is operating a full fleet of VLo fighter aircraft and their best efforts to date are completely irrelevent over night.

My issue is with APA, fanboys etc who use entirely unverifiable claims as some sort of basis of belief that PAK-FA IS "better".

The APA is garbage. Can we leave that part of discussion behind us now?

Fact.

No-one has seen even a test or development aircraft on a production line.

Wrong. No-one you know. Unelss Sukhoi is lying, the first prototypes are already being assembled, and that means someone has seen them. They have not been shown publicly. There is a difference.

Fact:

Russia has made plenty of claims about it's 5th Gen fighter and never once produced anything to support it's claims.

I second Havaarla. Check the claims by source.

From the point of view that none of the claims about Russias 5th Gen are verifiable in any way and no attempts to support them have been made, my claim is every bit as credible as theirs.

Once again it's not. You don't have the capability to produce it. Russia does. Whether we will or not is disputable, but the claim has far more validity.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Actually I think it’s a far call to question the Russian aviation industry’s ability to build a 5th generation fighter. No aviation industry outside the USA has demonstrated the required inputs that make a 5th generation fighter a ‘fifth’ rather than a glossed over ‘fourth’.

These include stealth to the tune of -30 to -40 dBsm and data fusing, fully integrated flight mission systems. The Russians have not demonstrated any of these technologies and considering their immense complexity and huge demand on software writing and development that took the fully funded US defence complex 30 years to develop., its ridiculous to think the Russians can match all this with post Soviet Union levels of funding with nothing more than imagery analysis and commercial computing to work from.

Especially since the Russians have not demonstrated either of these technologies or anything like the 30 years ago American starting point to these capabilities. I doubt the PAK-FA will be anything other than a starting point, test bed towards a low observable aircraft (0 to -10 dBsm) and will certainly lack the high end mission systems of the F-35, Super Hornet Block II and F-22.

The Russian defence aviation industry is a chimera. They have just been running on the empty gas fumes of the huge Soviet investment and have not significantly developed any new systems since the 1980s. Despite strong sales of the FLANKER and FLUCRUM they have lacked the large scale investment needed to develop new technology from a starting position that was critically behind the USA at the end of the actual race (fall of the Soviet Union).

Despite the press releases and scale models you need big bucks to build this capability. The bucks pays for the staff, the materials and the experimentation needed to make it happen. Since the post Soviet Russian defence industry has had less than 1% of the US levels of investment I find it hard to believe they can do anything other than keep dusting off the old Soviet designs.

 

[Haavarla]

Despite the press releases and scale models you need big bucks to build this capability. The bucks pays for the staff, the materials and the experimentation needed to make it happen. Since the post Soviet Russian defence industry has had less than 1% of the US levels of investment I find it hard to believe they can do anything other than keep dusting off the old Soviet designs.

There are no use in compairing US Aviation Industries and todays Russias Aviation Industries.

I simply fail to see the point?

The Russian funding are as you say nowhere near US in aviation development programs.

But the Russian have some very talented people working at Sukhios and the A-industries as a whole.

And keep in mind the Russian have a much smaller workforce, assembly plants, cheaper sallaries and lower production output rate.
And last not to mention US/LM have a way of blowing the budget skyhigh on their "stealth" development phase.

The Russian don't need to reeinvent the wheel here.

With todays computer power and much of the technical reasearch already available, And vastly superior material than the US had back on the first stealth programs.
The Russian funding and programs dont need to be compaired with US.

Russia will produce their own 5th Gen fighter, no doubt about it.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

There are no use in compairing US Aviation Industries and todays Russias Aviation Industries.

I simply fail to see the point?

Then you're completely misguided. Do you seriously want to argue that one Russian is worth more than one American? One Russian has always equalled one American. Besides the biggest employer of aerospace engineers in Russia is Boeing who as them all working on 787 aerostructure design.

The Russians do need to invent the wheel. Because despite the common understanding of stealth - absorb radar waves or deflect them away from the receiver - implementing it on a flyable aircraft is really, really hard.

The Russians have none of this. All they have is a small western European sized industry (the same capability as Sweden, Germany, France, UK, etc without the benefit of multinational programs) adept at keeping alive old designs.

The Russians have demonstrated NO capability to produce the key definitions of fifth generation fighter. Until they do so their 'artist’s impressions' and promises to provide an F-22/F-35 competitor are just smoke and mirrors. Bait for the gullible and wishful thinkers.

As ‘AussieDigger’ sort of said might as well bank on a backyard operator or India or Sri Lanka or Zimbabwe producing a fifth generation fighter. Because while none of these ‘contenders’ have the PR campaign to rival the Russian aerospace industry (an industry like much of Russia’s panicking and desperate to raise foreign investment for last ditch production modernisation before the last of the Soviet stuff rusts away) they have the same technical and industrial potential to do this.

 

[Haavarla]

Abraham Gubler;168869]Then you're completely misguided. Do you seriously want to argue that one Russian is worth more than one American? One Russian has always equalled one American. Besides the biggest employer of aerospace engineers in Russia is Boeing who as them all working on 787 aerostructure design.

No i stated that the funding Russia need to develop stealth are in no way compairable to US.

The Russians do need to invent the wheel. Because despite the common understanding of stealth - absorb radar waves or deflect them away from the receiver - implementing it on a flyable aircraft is really, really hard.

Agreed, but that doesn't mean its not acheivable!

The Russians have none of this. All they have is a small western European sized industry (the same capability as Sweden, Germany, France, UK, etc without the benefit of multinational programs) adept at keeping alive old designs.

In what way are Sweden Aviation compairable to Russian aviation?
Surly not in manpower and funding?

The Russians have demonstrated NO capability to produce the key definitions of fifth generation fighter. Until they do so their 'artist’s impressions' and promises to provide an F-22/F-35 competitor are just smoke and mirrors. Bait for the gullible and wishful thinkers.

Again.. they have not demonstrated anything to you or any other sceptics here, a flawed contention to claim to know the level of R&D in the Russian Aviation.
The Russian still have the abillity to surprise western Aviation like they have done in the past.

 

[Feanor]

I supposed the only answer here is time will tell. Lets wait until we see something, and then talk.

 

[saadm]

what the heck!!!!

A production variant?

Pre-production variant?

A test model designed to test various technologies (ala Gripen) that might at some point be migrated across to another platform?

No-one can actually say...

Fact is:

No "PAK-FA" has been seen in public. It has only ever been talked about.

No-one has seen a pre-production model, let alone a production model and therefore ANY speculation about it's capabilities is utter rubbish.

What "PAk-FA"?

I can say with EQUAL validity, that the VLO fighter I'm building in my shed is more capable...

Hey Aussy digger: If you are the moderator why do you post nonsense comments like above.Can I go to All the forum messages and say I am building better stuff in my shed.Other moderators please take notice of this.

 

[saadm]

what is the basis of your conclusion???

The APA is garbage. Can we leave that part of discussion behind us now?

Feanor: How can you say that APA study is garbage? I am just questioning the basis of your assertion.

 

[Feanor]

I've seen them make many claims that simply do not correspond to reality. I've also seen them debunked rather thoroughly many times. Not to mention their analysis methods are flawed in the first place.

Saadm I notice you're new here. Your participation is certainly welcome, but please try to take a more respectful tone, in particular towards moderators or those who have demonstrated their experience on these forums in a manner that places them above reprimands from newcomers. Thanks.

 

[the road runner]

Feanor: How can you say that APA study is garbage? I am just questioning the basis of your assertion.

APA is garbage and i have spent the first 2 years reading there crap back in the late 90s.APA asume alot, and we all know about asumptions.

They have been dis credited in the AUSTRALIAN defence scene.When Australia was looking for a replacement/bridging aircraft for the F-111,APA wanted an F-111S variant in wich New engines,new avionics and radar were to be added.Guess who was going to get the contracty to do the Refurbeshment of the F-111s.None other than APA author Dr Carlo Kopp and his company.(aparantley he also wanted royalties off the Australian Govt. for comming up with the idea)

After they failed(APA) to get the government to go for the refurbishment on the F-111, APA started to ride off everyones ideas of what the ADF needed to purchase for its future fighter/bomber.

When Australia chose to select the F-18F as a bridging fighter for the RAAFs F-111 fleet/JSF ,Kopp stated that the Super Bugs were the wrong plane for Australia.He even had the Nerve to dis regard the knowladge of some defence analysts and Squadron leaders(who have actually flown the F18 super bugs) of the RAAF who had information Privi to them by Boeing.

He was found to be so wrong on the capabilities of the F18 super bugs that now no one in the Government even listens to him now.

He also rid the JSF off as he wanted Australia to purchase F-22 Raptors instead.Its funny i have an article where he rides off Lo(stealth)on combat planes but he wants the F-22.....go figure:

If your Australian you would know about APA and there dribble.
As for Carlo Kopp i think he just asumes to much and would not know how to write a fair and balanced defence article.

my 2 c

 

[Aussie Digger]

A production variant?

Pre-production variant?

A test model designed to test various technologies (ala Gripen) that might at some point be migrated across to another platform?

No-one can actually say...

Fact is:

No "PAK-FA" has been seen in public. It has only ever been talked about.

No-one has seen a pre-production model, let alone a production model and therefore ANY speculation about it's capabilities is utter rubbish.




Hey Aussy digger: If you are the moderator why do you post nonsense comments like above.Can I go to All the forum messages and say I am building better stuff in my shed.Other moderators please take notice of this.

Show me what they've produced...

 

[Aussie Digger]

Feanor: How can you say that APA study is garbage? I am just questioning the basis of your assertion.

1. Peter Goon and Carlo Kopp ARE Air Power Australia.

2. Peter Goon and Carlo Kopp owned a company known as Australian Flight Test Services.

3. Australian Flight Test Services submitted a proposal to the AIR-6000 request for proposal. AIR-6000 is Australia's program to acquire a new generation fighter aircraft. Lockheed Martin and Boeing submitted proposals for AIR-6000.

Thus Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon are in effect, no more than "rivals" to the companies that have been selected to satisfy Australia's new generation aircraft requirements and it's bridging air combat aircraft requirement.

Their conflict of interest should be kept in mind when you read anything published by APA about Australian Defence matters.

Other proposals they have previously submitted include rebuilding the DHC-4 Caribous and providing them with new engines. Kopp and Goon publicly disparaged replacement options for the Caribou for a few years, until it became patently obvious that no amount of smoke and mirrors could mask the fact that the aircraft had to be replaced.

Now they've moved onto the F/A-18/F-111 replacement project.

Btw, you disparaged my remark about "sheds" before. Why don't you do some research and find out where Australian Flight Test Services, operated out of? nfloorl:

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Again.. they have not demonstrated anything to you or any other sceptics here, a flawed contention to claim to know the level of R&D in the Russian Aviation.
The Russian still have the ability to surprise western Aviation like they have done in the past.

The level of Russian investment into R&D is quite well known. Even with the Soviet Union that didn't publicise Government revenue and expenditure other national intelligence services and assessment bodies were able to work out how much was spent.

As to the Russians being able surprise the west they have never done such a thing since World War 1. The Soviet Union on the other hand (more than just Russia) generated many surprises but they did so because of massive investment and secrecy, two things that no longer exist in Russia anywhere near the scale that they did during the Soviet Union. In 1988 the Soviet Union spent about $400 billion on defence, in 2008 Russia spent $40 billion.

Simply assuming that because the geography remains the same that the Russians are going to produce a FIREFOX is pretty dim.

 

[Feanor]

Abraham I don't think anyone can reasonably doubt that there is indeed a project called the PAK-FA, and that it is indeed attempting to produce an advanced jet fighter. The question is how advanced will it be... and in that regard I think we can expect something clearly ahead of current advanced Flankers. I also doubt it will match the F-22 or F-35. But given that it will be a no-alternative product (for those who can't buy American primarily) it will certainly have its market niche internationally, and at least provide a replacement for Soviet era legacy fighters domestically.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Abraham I don't think anyone can reasonably doubt that there is indeed a project called the PAK-FA, and that it is indeed attempting to produce an advanced jet fighter.

Yeah sure. But it won't be a 5th generation fighter like the F-35. At best it will be a Super Hornet, Typhoon competitor. I also doubt we will see this "FLACID" in squadron service before 2020.

 

[Sintra]

Feanor: How can you say that APA study is garbage? I am just questioning the basis of your assertion.

saadm

Anyone who states that transforming the F-22 Raptor into the F/N-22 "Sea Raptor" his an easy task (!) is putting himself "beyond the pale".
And if that same person estimates that the total R&D budget for this "Sea Raptor" his just 263 million US$ (!!!!!) than this guy his a complete "cuckoo".
Believe it or not, but Peter Goon just stated this "absurdity" a month ago...

 

[shockwave11]

Abraham I don't think anyone can reasonably doubt that there is indeed a project called the PAK-FA, and that it is indeed attempting to produce an advanced jet fighter. The question is how advanced will it be... and in that regard I think we can expect something clearly ahead of current advanced Flankers. I also doubt it will match the F-22 or F-35. But given that it will be a no-alternative product (for those who can't buy American primarily) it will certainly have its market niche internationally, and at least provide a replacement for Soviet era legacy fighters domestically.

Well mr.Feanor for your kind information PAK-FA Will be the Fifth generation Fighter plane jointly developed by Russin & India
it will be able to supercruse But F-35 cant SU-35 is already doing that
The engine Al-41 is producing 40000lb thrust
But F-119 engines of F-22 are proucing 35,000lb thrust i think Russian are better here
ok Forgot about that
Only the thing in which USA & Europe are better then Russians is
their sensors especially radar & ECM suite(especially made dy Raytheon)
But We should Remind that the Indian Sukhois are using NIIP N011M Bars (Panther) radar Which is far more better than those installed on F-16/18/15
or gripen,Typhoon,Rafael
That means the Radar which will be installed on PAK-FA will gona be better than of those Indian Sukhois
so tell me what we have learn from this article


ok let me tell

we have learn that THE PAK-FA Will be far more Better than those F-35/45 or 55 what may be that
And without Any doubt Superior to Any thing else

 

[shockwave11]

What "PAk-FA"?

A production variant?

Pre-production variant?

A test model designed to test various technologies (ala Gripen) that might at some point be migrated across to another platform?

No-one can actually say...

Fact is:

No "PAK-FA" has been seen in public. It has only ever been talked about.

No-one has seen a pre-production model, let alone a production model and therefore ANY speculation about it's capabilities is utter rubbish.

I can say with EQUAL validity, that the VLO fighter I'm building in my shed is more capable...

Oh yes you r the one who can change the history
it was really disgusting that those small country like Cuba,Vietnam,Nkorea
defeat whole of the western forces
oh man you should sell the VLO fighter you'r building in your shed to NATO
And then The NATO will become the most power full Military alliance ever :nutkick

no doubt you are the best